MH17 - The Joint Investigation Team and (Obvious) Conclusions

[BillyB]

If sanctions were not working, the Russians would not be so desperate to end them. A key theme of PM Medvedev's recent European tour was to end the Western sanctions.

Of course no nation likes sanctions but their goals are usually worth enduring any and all sanctions. I'm not surprised Medvedev is trying to score some likes in Europe. I remember the Chinese president going on tour in America to score some points when he was taking half the Chinese Sea. When he came to Seattle, he bought some Boeing airplanes and Americans cheered. When Russia is desperate, that will be the day they stop destabilizing Ukraine in exchange for lifting sanctions. It isn't easier than that but if Medvedev can improve Russia's image in Europe and get the sanctions lifted without having to end hostilities, Russia will have won another round.




We have witnessed what Russia will do to achieve an objective in Syria. Ukraine is more important to Russia than Syria is. Putin is not going to give up on Ukraine even if the sanctions are increased. Putin may slow down and change tactics to retake Ukraine but sanctions are not going to stop him. He needs to be threatened with a spanking by a bigger bully if we want him to stop what he's doing. If the next American president is not willing to spank and put troops in eastern Ukraine, I think Putin will win this political chess game and he will recuperate the costs that it took Russia to play the game.

[Muzh]

Tonight at 9 PM on the Science channel program "What on Earth?", they will dissect the Russian picture claiming an Ukrainian fighter shot down MH-17.

[msmobyone]

Tonight at 9 PM on the Science channel program "What on Earth?", they will dissect the Russian picture claiming an Ukrainian fighter shot down MH-17.

The first 'clue' being an SU-25 isn't a 'fighter' and can't even keep up with a cruising airliner - let alone climb to attack with cannon 

[deccie]

If sanctions were not working, the Russians would not be so desperate to end them. A key theme of PM Medvedev's recent European tour was to end the Western sanctions.

"Working" is an interesting choice of words. Having an impact - definitely yes. But I don't see them achieving anything beyond that.

[mendeleyev]

I understand your point, yet my sources in the Kremlin seem to feel that the president feels the cost of adventurism via the sanctions. However, he appears to be willing to allow the country to absorb that cost as long as sanctions are the only response by the West.

[BC]

I understand your point, yet my sources in the Kremlin seem to feel that the president feels the cost of adventurism via the sanctions. However, he appears to be willing to allow the country to absorb that cost as long as sanctions are the only response by the West.

Which might be good in the end by lessening dependence on foreign goods, promoting a more diverse economy and less dependency on energy exports in RU?

not bad.. especially when under the circumstances the blame can be pointed at the west.

He is obviously not a stupid man.. maybe the west underestimates him as a tactician?  Of course he thought about reaction from the west including sanctions when he ventured into Crimea and eastern UA.  RU, a country full of cheap energy and many resources, sanctions only increasing his popularity or at the very least putting blame for the current situation outside the borders.

Obviously RU needs an economic upheaval to spur their economy forward.  I think right now he's just weighing the results thus far, watching the world not step in and do nothing out of frustration with the situation in UA before really stepping in to Donetsk and surrounding regions with their industrial wealth.  After all with the west not willing to do so they certainly cannot object.. and even if the west increases sanctions without direct intervention there is all to gain and nothing to loose.

RU involvement in Syria is a distraction and a way to show the west they are ineffective, not to mention distracting attention from UA to Syria instead.

I always contended that folks in RU play chess rather than western checkers..

[BillyB]

I always contended that folks in RU play chess rather than western checkers..

Reagan knew how to play chess. Libya wanted to claim more Mediterranean Sea and Reagan sank their boats. Iran caused problems and Reagan sank their boats. The USSR wanted more Black Sea and Reagan pushed their boats back but not before a Soviet ship decided to ram our aircraft carrier. If Reagan were running the show, he'd make sure Russia and China obeys international law.

[Muzh]

Which might be good in the end by lessening dependence on foreign goods, promoting a more diverse economy and less dependency on energy exports in RU?

not bad.. especially when under the circumstances the blame can be pointed at the west.

He is obviously not a stupid man.. maybe the west underestimates him as a tactician?  Of course he thought about reaction from the west including sanctions when he ventured into Crimea and eastern UA.  RU, a country full of cheap energy and many resources, sanctions only increasing his popularity or at the very least putting blame for the current situation outside the borders.

Obviously RU needs an economic upheaval to spur their economy forward.  I think right now he's just weighing the results thus far, watching the world not step in and do nothing out of frustration with the situation in UA before really stepping in to Donetsk and surrounding regions with their industrial wealth.  After all with the west not willing to do so they certainly cannot object.. and even if the west increases sanctions without direct intervention there is all to gain and nothing to loose.

RU involvement in Syria is a distraction and a way to show the west they are ineffective, not to mention distracting attention from UA to Syria instead.

I always contended that folks in RU play chess rather than western checkers..

Lofty goals that seldom work in a mafia state.

[jone]

I am thinking that Putin, the avdventurer, is moving his Chess pieces around like mad because he needs to hide the abject failures on the domestic front.  Case in point:  Kazakhstan has no great natural resources to pull from.  Yeah, some small oil operatings and lots of horses, but nothing to write home about.  Yet the infrastructure in Kazakhstan is, far and above, better than Russia. 

Here is a Mafioso Strongman, Nazarbayev, who has used his position to improve the infrastructure of his country.  I was in a regional capital, Kostanay, and the capital, Astana.  Everywhere I looked, there were sidewalks, public transit and civic improvements.  Contrast that with where I had come from, Chelyabinsk, which had diddly.  Miserable city with beggars on the streets and falling down systems.  If I had to compare Ukraine (and the many cities that I have been in there) and Chelyabinsk, Ukraine has more infrastructure. 

Go figure.  I no longer wish to speculate on the end game.  But there is no wealth outside of the Federal Cities in Russia.

[wiz]

The US appears to have finally released radar and satellite images to the Dutch..

http://www.nu.nl/vliegramp-oekraine/4201737/openbaar-ministerie-heeft-genoeg-radarinformatie-crash-mh17.html

The question one may ask is:
 
Why the Americans just released Radar and satellite images to the Dutch and many months after the Dutch Safety Board published its report in October 2015 for the downing of the MH17 which took place on the 17 July 2014?
 
What was the reason for holding back such critical information, for so long time?
 
According to the paper report the full information was not supplied to the Russian investigators and the comments and evidence provided by the Russian military, in their original presentation, have never been answered or were disputed by the Americans.
 

[mendeleyev]

Wiz, the Russian blog community debunked the Russian theory faster than the Americans had a chance. Even those who supported Russia were embarrassed by the photo-shopped "evidence." A common term used by native Russian bloggers was "amateurish."

Apparently you have not read the actual Dutch commission report and its supporting documents, nor the videos from such front line reporters as the Russian journalists embedded with the LifeNews netword.

[BC]

I am thinking that Putin, the avdventurer, is moving his Chess pieces around like mad because he needs to hide the abject failures on the domestic front.  Case in point:  Kazakhstan has no great natural resources to pull from.  Yeah, some small oil operatings and lots of horses, but nothing to write home about.  Yet the infrastructure in Kazakhstan is, far and above, better than Russia.

I'm sure he notes what is happening elsewhere.  One thing is sure, he will take actions based upon what he learns and observes in order to use them to advantage.

There is one principle that always applies and that is not to underestimate the power and intent of your opponents.  To accept that Putin is stupid or does not have a plan fails that test miserably.

[jone]

BC,

You are absolutely right.  It is difficult to assess the state of the Russian nation by how it interacts with other nations.  Instead, the only way to evaluate is to live there or visit frequently.  On this forum, one of the great mischaracterizations occurs when people see how Russian's foreign policy operates.  Particularly, vis a vis their own country. 

I want to make a couple of ongoing observations:  1.  Although American culture permeates Russian society (don't believe me, walk down the street in a non-federal city.  See how many people are wearing shirts that proclaim something in English) the average Russian is firmly against the foreign policy of the US.  They are spoon fed such negativity daily, through periodicals, TV, every media outlet.  But just because the spin presents the United States as bad, doesn't mean that the Russians are happy with what is happening in their country.  2.  When I was in Russia in May, I was asked if I was a Patriot, implying that the question asker was a Patriot.    When I lived in Peter in the Fall, no one asked those questions any more. 

My take is that while the average Russian is not favorable to the US, the bloom is off the rose with Putin's popularity.

As for the topic of this thread, most Russians believe that Russia is NOT responsible for shooting down  MH17.

There are a great number of strategic thinkers in Russia.  Unfortunately, V.V. Putin is a tactitian, not a stategist.  Nero Fiddles........

[mendeleyev]

I would agree almost 100% with Jone on each point. As to whether the bloom is off on Putin's popularity, it is either off, or it is very close to being off.

To reassert Jone's point, visit any large mall or shopping centre in any sizable city. There will be Western stores, from DKNY to Cartier to Samsonite to Timberland to Lacoste to Louis Vuitton to Hugo Boss to Levi's and more. Products on the shelves run from Tide to Purina Dog Chow to Lays potato chips and hundreds more. There will be American fast food from Subway to KFC to Burger King to McDonalds, to Dunkin Donuts to Krispy Kreme to Nathan's hotdogs to more.

You will also find stores that have no real Western connection, but try to appear as if they do by adopting Western sounding names--with English spelling.

As Jone relates, Russians love all things American, except for what they believe is American foreign policy. That view is spoonfed daily on Russia television and most often it has no base in reality.

[msmobyone]

The question one may ask is:

is why does Wiz spend so much time  quoting stuff from zeroclue.com ? ...

viz
 

According to the paper report the full information was not supplied to the Russian investigators and the comments and evidence provided by the Russian militar, in their original presentation, have never been answered or were disputed by the Americans].

You mean like the SU-25 'fighter'  ?

http://www.rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plane-russia-ukraine/

Pay attention to the video at 4.40..When the Russian military tell us that a ground support jet .... that cannot get above 6000m when armed with missiles - let alone fly as fast as a cruising 777 at 11000m - was suggested to be at the same height 

Please explain these sat images  - seeing the Dutch report made no mention of them... and why it says the Russians [ and Ukrainians] supplied no primary radar data?