Good News on Ukraine Currency

[kievstar]

For anybody in Kiev today you can get Ukraine currency at 5.4 to 1 USA at certain money booths.  People in Ukraine are panicking and they tend to like the dollar over the Euro. This could be real good news for people travelling there.  Good news for foreigners who want to do business there as well.

With companies getting rid of high paid jobs in Kiev recently this will help some people keep there jobs. 

[Jack]

It has been most entertaining watching the dollar rise over the last month.

6 weeks ago it was common to see the exchange rate at 4.40.  (4.40 grivnas to the dollar)   Just a month ago we were seeing the exchange rate in the 4.60's.

I noticed this time however that when the exchange rate got to the .70's, the rate stayed there constantly with a slight rise every 2 to 3 days. This was when I first realized something good was happening.

Then on September 17th, a new barrier was reached.  As one photo below shows
the exchange rate in Lugansk, I was so happy to see the 4.80 barrier met and broke, I had to take a photo showing 4.8

Only two days later, un-believable, 4.95, 4.96.   In two days.  From 4.81, to 4.96.  In Dnepropetrovsk the exchange rate finally hit 5 even a few days later.   On September 23rd, as the second photo shows, the 5 grivnas to the dollar finally hit Kiev.

Today, 5.4.  The highest I have ever seen was 5.79 and that was about 3.5 years ago. The lowest I have ever seen was 2 grivnas to 1 dollar in the late 90's.

And the Euro, it's going crazy.   One of the men with us had Euro's. The previous high he had ever seen in Ukraine was 7 Euro's to the grivna.  At 7.15 he exchanged a lot of money. Then it went to 7.2, then 7.25, he couldn't believe it.  As shown in the photo's you see the Euro at 6.65, and at 7.3.  That's quite a jump in a short period of time.

[CCowboy]

Do you mean 5.04 or 5.40?  When I arrive in Dnepropetrovsk on 19 september it was 4.95.  Today most places are 5.10-5.12.  I found 5.15 at a local bank.  I don't know where it's headed but like Jack said, just a few months ago, it was around 4.60.  I wonder how soon prices on goods will change to reflect the change in the exchange rate.  I think the inflation rate will cancel the better exchange rate.

[kievstar]

5.40.  Back to 5.1 most places right now in Kiev - some at 5.2 still.  Big run on currency today in Kiev.  I have a little business on days when the market is all over the place I have a couple of people running around Kiev making money.  Needs to be well coordinated but with all those mom and pop exchange stores you can make very good money on days like this in Kiev.  I am actually in Brussels working so need a couple people you trust. 

USA dollar to Euro is almost the same as it was in November 2004.  Hopefully it gets back to .85 starting point in 1999. 

[BC]

USA dollar to Euro is almost the same as it was in November 2004.  Hopefully it gets back to .85 starting point in 1999. 

That's a breath of fresh air.. have a couple contract with US firms so the next bills I write (for the same USD amounts) will please me.

Thanks to all those that are dumping their US stocks and buying US Treasury notes at low or no interest..

The real 'crash' is when the USD/EUR rate rises enough to support buying EUR instead..  watch out folks..

[Mir]

The previous high he had ever seen in Ukraine was 7 Euro's to the grivna.

In April 2008 you could get just over 8 grivna for 1 Euro.

The way things are going with world economy the grivna is poised for sharp fall in next few months.
The price of grivna has been kept high by NBU to counter inflation, interest rates on UAH deposits being much higher then USD or Euro. As the economy slows down inflation will fall, the interest rates will be cut.
If oil and gas prices remain high Ukrainian budget deficit will rise and foreign exchange reserves will fall creating a shortage of hard currency.
Finlay flight of capital out of Ukraine (as seen in Russia) due to deteriorating economy and geographic tensions will create further shortage of USD and Euros.
So hold on a few more months before setting off for Ukraine, of course nothing in finance is certain and sharper then expected falls in USD or Euro can offset the decline in UAH prices.

[kievstar]

Ukraine has a bunch of debt due next year and they have no money to pay it off.  Maybe Russia comes to their rescue.   Ukraine is headed towards 1999 if politicians do not do something.  Do not buy new apartments in Ukraine now - builders are starting construction and than getting enough deposits than stopping once they get a good return.  No laws say they have to finish construction or give back your 20% plus deposit.

Euro will continue to decline if Western Europe wants to create an attractive countries to invest in.  To expensive to do business in most industries there. 

Going to be very interesting next 2 years.  I think you may see some big countries go bankrupt if they implement stupid policies.