A Worried Kremlin Makes Plans to ‘Ward Off Revolution’

[55North]

The Kremlin is more worried about the stability of society, than it has previously even hinted at..........

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/12/window-on-eurasia-worried-kremlin-makes.html

[Misha]

In my experience, Russian government officials were paranoid about the possibility of a color revolution taking place in Russia when times were good and getting better. I can only imagine what the are thinking now as the are facing a pretty serious economic crisis if the price of a barrel of oil stays at $40 (or less) for an extended period.

[mendeleyev]

Paul Goble is a credible Kremlin watcher and writer.  About a month ago I wrote something similar called "Putin in Trouble?" and pointed out Putin's troubles were....

For two reasons:
1) His bill to change the Constitution regarding presidential terms from 4 to 6 years didn't go as smoothly as he and Mr Medvedev had hoped.

- The Communist Party representatives in the Duma voted in mass against the measure. 

- The Liberal Democratic Party representatives got up and walked out instead of voting when the second reading came to the floor for a vote yesterday.

- Speaking of the required readings, the third and final reading was susposed to have been completed in a week as promised by United Russia, Mr Putin's own party.  That however didn't happen.  By the end of week two the Duma had only gotten to the second reading and while the vote was 350 to 57, the discussion and debate leading up to the vote was anything but pleasant for Putin, Inc.

- At that juncture two major amendments had been attempted to the bill thus far with more promised on the way.  The biggest one was to amend the bill to limit a president to a single 6 year term.  That one stalled everything for days.  It was defeated but vividly pointed out to Putin, Inc. that Duma deputies are not as anxious for a return as he might have immagined.

- Police were ordered to arrest and detain any groups of protesters outside the Duma.  So the Yablaka party (Apple Party) staged protests, one person at a time to thus avoid the police order to arrest "groups."

That is the beginning of his problems but certainly not the end.

This next one, eventually could signal the beginning of the end for Putin, Inc:

2) Mr Putin, a KGB Colonel, but not a high ranking General, came from seemingly nowhere to be President.  That wasn't by accident.  Powerbrokers, of the very rich and powerful variety, had to okay to the deal.  That deal may be wearing thin.

- If there is one person in Russia you don't wish to tick off it's Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov.  And if Mr Luzhkov wants to send a shot across your bow, he'll do it in public fashion and you'd better pay attention if he does.  He is one of 3-4 of the most powerful Russian players ruling Kremlin politics behind the scenes.  Mr Putin has ruled at the pleasure of people like the multi billionaire Luzhkov.

To give you an idea of the kind of people behind the scenes, in the midst of all the turmoil after the failed coup attempt near the end of the Gorbachev reign, it was Mr Luzhkov who invited Mr Gorbachev to lunch, wrote a short resignation letter on a napkin, and then pushed it across the table.  The Gorbachev era ended less than two weeks later.

- As mayor of Moscow, Mr Luzhkov is also a 'governor' since Moscow is a federal region.  You may remember that Mr Putin eliminated the election of governors during his last stint as President.  When Mr Luzhkov's term came up for "renewal" Mr Putin did the smart thing and reappointed him to another term.  His presidency would not have survived had he done otherwise.  It doesn't hurt that the two are business partners in several ventures either.

- Mr Luzhkov works in concert with other powerful elite individuals.  He is not a loner when it comes to weilding power.  So when he recently, and very publically, challenged the practice of appointing governors and advocated a return to direct elections by the people (not that Luzhkov ever even once really cared what "the people" thought about anything), it was designed as direct slap in the public face of Vladimir V. Putin. 

- So the dirty task was given to President Medvedev of rejecting, publically, the Luzhkov proposal.  That was not only declaration of internal fueding behind the scenes battles, but put Mr Medvedev in a no-win position concerning his long term future.  This will play out for awhile, behind the scenes, but it is a clear and present signal to Mr Putin that the elite aren't totally comfortable and he must not forget that he didn't become Tsar by himself and the same group who put him on the throne can also ship him out to Yekaterinburg anytime they feel like it.

It doesn't mean he's being dethroned but it's a public slap and warning signal.  Mr Putin certainly knows he being spanked.

- As further evidence that the powerbrokers are unhappy, Mr Gorbachev, nearly totally rehabiliated from his former status as the man who sank the titanic known as the CCCP, is now again playing with the big boys.  Including Mr Luzhkov.  Mr Gorbachev has recently founded a new political party which will compete against United Russia in future elections.

Normally announcement of a new party would come with condemnations and perhaps serious consequences for those foolish enough to dream.  But Mr Putin and United Russia have been silent. 

The silence speaks volumes.

[mendeleyev]

Since that time the Duma passed the constitutional amendment which just passed the final Federation Council hurtle today.  All the bill needs is President Medvedev's signature to become law.

However because of a surprising backlash from both Western governments and at home, the Prime Minister has announced that he will not seek an early return to the Presidency.

This week the Kremlin is battling riots in the Russian Far East over tarrifs on car and truck sales as citizens become bolder about economic issues.  Mr Putin has called out the ruthless OMOH (oh-mon) Russia's federal riot police.  Just a few days ago OMOH seized footage by REN-TV’s Valentina Troshina.

Here's a BBC video which one British journalist got away with filming and sending it out of the country. As you can see, the federal police don't play around with protesters and there are no western 'niceties' or 'rights.' This was broadcast on the BBC Sunday, December 21: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7794701.stm

[mendeleyev]

Writing in today's Moscow Times, Vladimir Ryzhkov writes that:

"Russians are increasingly worried about the economic crisis -- and rightfully so. A Dec. 15 survey by the Levada Center found that 60 percent of adults feel uncertain about the future, and 88 percent consider the condition of the economy to be from "fair" to "very bad." More than half of the respondents feel that the worst is yet to come. Almost 40 percent believe the crisis has already hit Russia, and another third believe it hasn't hit yet, but will. Furthermore, 75 percent of respondents expect unemployment to increase in their regions, and a whopping one-fourth of the respondents reported that they either had been laid off, hit with pay cuts or experienced delays in getting paid on time."


"As the crisis is spilling over into the real economy, the people's tolerance level for government policies is reaching its breaking point. Even before the crisis, the people's anger over runaway inflation and their eroding purchasing power had been building up over the past few years. In addition, corruption has gotten markedly worse as the level of monopolization in the economy and bureaucratization of government has increased. All of this is pushing people's discontent to the surface."

"Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's decision to raise import duties on used foreign cars in an attempt to support the country's struggling automakers unleashed a wave of demonstrations by drivers who will now be forced to pay through the nose for their favorite foreign models. In essence, the government is trying to force new car purchasers to buy far more inferior Russian models -- something they would have never done absent the import duties. Drivers protested all across the country -- from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok. Riot police brutally dispersed demonstrators at protests in Vladivostok during the past two weekends -- a rare example of police using force against ordinary citizens defending their everyday interests. This marks an escalation in the government crackdown on dissent, which up to now was limited largely to breaking up Dissenters' Marches and roughing up and arresting their members."

"The anger over increased import duties is particularly strong among residents of the Far East, the majority of which -- perhaps as high as 80 percent -- make a living either directly or indirectly connected with the sale or servicing of imported automobiles. The government's decision only exacerbates the region's sense of alienation from Moscow. It also strengthens the region's separatist tendencies and increases the already high rate of emigration from that area."

"In Alapayevsk in the Sverdlovsk region, 17 miners are staging a hunger strike to protest unpaid wages. In Magnitogorsk, people have held rallies against layoffs at the city's iron and steel works and against price hikes for utilities and public transportation. People are also staging rallies in the city of Senezh in the Karelia region where the local pulp and paper mill is on the verge of closing, and the cost of heating and water have shot up by 20 percent and 27 percent respectively."

 

[mendeleyev]

The Mendeleyev Journal
http://russianreport.wordpress.com


"Take Demons Alive" screamed the wording on the sign.  No, this wasn't a billboard in Appalachia's Bible belt or on the side of a rural Florida barn.

The demon had a photo, belonging to none other than Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.  In case you haven't heard, protests are erupting all over Russia, especially in the Far East where foreign factory contracts are often the single lifeblood of many small to medium sized cities and with contract orders in retreat, the lifestyles of ordinary Russians are in a freefall.

With salaries late, hours cut, and pensions threatened, Russians are not in the usual holiday mood to wish the Prime Minister a happy New Year.  Even the media, from radio talk hosts to print and television political commentators, are on the attack against the man who was was considered like the American Bill Clinton, a Teflon leader.

The Teflon man, well not any longer.   The stark realities of the financial crisis and Mr Putin's reputation as the nation's saviour are finally at odds.  Protesters openly insult Mr Putin and while it was formerly only radical members of the banned National Bolshevik Party who would dare attack Mr Putin in public, today it's anyone with a piece of cardboard and a black felt tipped pen.

The fact that yesterday Belarussian President Lukashenko used a combination of bluster and harsh words to negotiate a low rate for Russian gas next year signaled to the Kremlin that even old friends can turn when times get tough.  Medvedev folded, Belarus will get it's gas, and Gazprom probably feels lucky to get something from the deal even at a significant discount.

Stunned by public reaction to the economy, Duma deputies have called for the Prime Minister to be summoned to explain why the country posted a sharp decline in industrial output in November. Such an embarrassing moment was spared, at least for now, by Mr Putin's United Russia party.

However one thing seems almost certain given the growing unrest within Russia's borders, Mr Putin may be singing to the tune of that old American southern spiritual, "nobody knows the trouble I've seen."



Photo credit: Moscow Times

[beachcomber556]

History teaches that there is nothing better than an external threat to ward off internal revolution.  Hence, one might expect our friends in the Kremlin to act accordingly.  Coming to the defense of Russians inside Georgia created just such a distraction, at a test case level, while also allowing the military to flex its somewhat atrophied muscles and fan the embers of nationalism.  With an 18% ethnic Russian population, and a government in full blown self destruct mode, Ukraine could easily be next.  It would solve the Sevastopol Black Sea Fleet issue.  Odessa, which is nearly totally Russian, and Kiev at 50% +-, all these Russian will need to protected from the dangers posed by lack of proper leadership in Ukraine.  

And then there is the threat that the U.S. poses by its hostile policies toward their esteemed allies the Iranians, as well as the expansionist moves of NATO into Russia's backyard.  We could go on, and on, and on.  

Putin and Company are politicians.  Pure and simple.  They will do what politicians throughout history have done in order to survive.

[Faux Pas]

Thank you mendeleyev for some insightful, condensed and very informational outlook on events. It is very appreciated. I find it very difficult to get such information whereas I can understand the facts. It's difficult to find the wheat separated from the chafe.

[dispozo]

This week the Kremlin is battling riots in the Russian Far East over tarrifs on car and truck sales as citizens become bolder about economic issues.  Mr Putin has called out the ruthless OMOH (oh-mon) Russia's federal riot police.  Just a few days ago OMOH seized footage by REN-TV’s Valentina Troshina.

Here's a BBC video which one British journalist got away with filming and sending it out of the country. As you can see, the federal police don't play around with protesters and there are no western 'niceties' or 'rights.' This was broadcast on the BBC Sunday, December 21: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7794701.stm

http://cpj.org/2008/12/a-dozen-journalists-detained-beaten-at-rally.php

[mendeleyev]

I've updated the topic with an article entitled "Will there Be Riots?" which you may find informative: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/

[wxman]

To give equal time and a different point of view.  This Russian professor is saying the US will fall apart in 2010. Civil war next year people. Run for your lives. I guess 2009 will not be a good year. Stock up on weapons to defend yourselves.  Where do they find these nuts?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,473529,00.html

[OlgaH]

To give equal time and a different point of view.  This Russian professor is saying the US will fall apart in 2010. Civil war next year people. Run for your lives. I guess 2009 will not be a good year. Stock up on weapons to defend yourselves.  Where do they find these nuts?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,473529,00.html

Russian analyst predicts decline and breakup of U.S.
http://en.rian.ru/world/20081124/118512713.html

"Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World"
THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL'S
2025 PROJECT

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.

http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf

The Looming Dangers of American Debt
June 7, 2006
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?page=article&id=2265

What does the term serf bring to mind? Poor, indebted, landless, forced labor—perhaps even medieval. Shockingly, serfdom is a reality many Americans may face in the future. Here is why.

The U.S. national debt now stands at more than $8.3 trillion, of which more than $2 trillion is owned by foreigners. Since 2000, the percentage of U.S. public debt owed to foreigners has doubled.

Take China for example. As of March of this year, China held over $321 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries, up from the $60 billion it owned at the end of 2000.

On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html

Renowned economist Khazin predicted U.S. financial crisis in 2000
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21189.htm

[wxman]

 That Russian professor does not have one clue about the American mentality. The more divided we may appear, the stronger we actually are. It's the differences that make us who we are. We are one big family We fight amongst ourselves, but let anyone else try to pick a fight with a member of the family, and we all unite to defend the "family"

The US will not collapse, it will not go into a civil war. Every 30 or 40 years or so, someone comes around and says it is the end of the US. The US was dead in the 70s. The US was going to cease during the great depression. The US was not going to survive the civil war. The US would be destroyed in the war of 1812. The US would not last 5 years after the Revolution. We're still here and we're going to be here for a long long time.

The US will be the first to emerge from this recession, one not as bad as the media portrays. This recession is like a party compared to the 70s. We need to wake up and realize, it's not that bad in the US, and will not be.

[OlgaH]

We are one big family We fight amongst ourselves, but let anyone else try to pick a fight with a member of the family, and we all unite to defend the "family"

 We need to wake up and realize, it's not that bad in the US, and will not be.

Financial Crisis Suicide Numbers Mounting
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/financial-crisis-suicide_n_134453.html

Across the country, authorities are becoming concerned that the nation's financial woes could turn increasingly violent, and they are urging people to get help. In some places, mental-health hot lines are jammed, counseling services are in high demand and domestic-violence shelters are full.

"A lot of people are telling us they are losing everything. They're losing their homes, they're going into foreclosure, they've lost their jobs," said Virginia Cervasio, executive director of a suicide resource enter in southwest Florida's Lee County.

 And the current financial crisis is already being called the worst since the Great Depression.

[wxman]

The Huffington Post, now that's a non biased publication.    People commit suicide everyday. last time I looked, I didn't see masses of people jumping off of roof tops because they lost money. Again, sensationalism at it's best. Hype sells, the truth does not. 

Russia will cease to exist in 5 years. They are on the verge total economic collapse. They will soon be eating the corpses of the dead because all their shelves will be empty. China will seize the opportunity to enslave the Russian masses.   See, I can make ridiculous claims too!   

[OlgaH]

 See, I can make ridiculous claims too!   

Yes you can and do    and such US Government's attitude towards "predictions" of financial crisis has leaded to the current financial crisis.

[mendeleyev]

Personally my heart breaks for Russian's who have been left behind in the country's newfound wealth, and then to be the first victims when the economic crisis has now reached Russia.

It makes me frustrated to see certain Russians close to the Kremlin become more wealthy by day, and to see poor veterans who sacrificed so much left by the wayside.

The wife of Moscow's Billionaire mayor is angry because a European community voted down her plans for a 20,000 sq foot mansion in a closed/gated development.  She's angry for being turned down on her mansion blueprints, but what of the babushka's back home in Russia who are struggling to just eat?

[kievstar]

USA will be fine just like Russia.  Parts of Europe are in worse shape but will not be very noticeable until about 10 years.  Socialism benefits does not work with an aging population and a younger work force making less than previous generation.  

USA will have to raise taxes and people will have to make the decision to move abroad or pay high taxes.  Most will pay taxes.

Russia will be fine as most people are used to being poor in that country.  Ukraine is a bigger story - I had no idea nobody was not paying utility bills for years.  Even when I bought an apartment for my ex I had to pay 4 years of past utility bills but had no idea this was common in Kiev and Donetsk.  Ukraine is a financial mess and I guess it makes sense as they have more millionaires as a % of population than Russia and a smaller middle class.  

You can buy brand new top end BMW's in Kiev for about $40,000 usd right now that were $90,000 usd plus 4 months ago.  These sellers have to sell or risk the price of getting beat up on past debts.  Agencies are getting tons of new girls in Ukraine so beware guys.

[OlgaH]

  So the Yablaka party (Apple Party) staged protests, one person at a time to thus avoid the police order to arrest "groups."

Unfortunately Party Yabloko able to stage only protests   Today I again opened their website and ... nothing new... as usual they have only beautiful ideas about democracy. Last their document (July 19, 2007) "Seven steps to the  equal opportunities" that was offered by Yavlinsky for Yabloko elections in 2007-2008, contains the criticism and description of 7 troubles of the modern Russia, but he did not offer any "steps" for resolving the troubles       So, no wonder why they collected only 1,59 % of votes... People love the beautiful ideas... especially during time of discords, but sooner or later people see that the ideas without an efficient program and real steps are just the words (or as Russians say "blab" and "paper liberal slogans") ... as it happened with Boris Nemtsov... when he being the First Deputy Prime Minister and so beloved by Russians for his ideas failed all reformers that he promised, he talked to much, but was not able to do the work and his rating among Russians to 2003 dramatically dropped.    

[OlgaH]

The wife of Moscow's Billionaire mayor is angry because a European community voted down her plans for a 20,000 sq foot mansion in a closed/gated development.  She's angry for being turned down on her mansion blueprints, but what of the babushka's back home in Russia who are struggling to just eat?

I think Yavlinsky now could play well on his idea to restrain monopoly and oligarchs, especially if he will add the idea of nationalization     

[Blues Fairy]

Boris Nemtsov... when he being the First Deputy Prime Minister and so beloved by Russians for his ideas failed all reformers that he promised, he talked to much, but was not able to do the work and his rating among Russians to 2003 dramatically dropped.    

Actually members of SPS were instrumental in formulating more or less viable economic policies throughout Putin's presidency; the fact that none of the 6 proposed major reforms came to pass should hardly be blamed on their ideologists.   

[OlgaH]

Actually members of SPS were instrumental in formulating more or less viable economic policies throughout Putin's presidency; the fact that none of the 6 proposed major reforms came to pass should hardly be blamed on their ideologists.   

Boris Nemtsov was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation by Yeltsin; to August of 1998 the Nemtsov's rating among Russians already dropped , Yeltsin signed the resignation of the cabinet.

We also should not forget that throughout Putin's early presidency the country was economically raised... if your remember the time in Russia in late 1980s and during 1990s.  What happened now? Most likely Comrade Stalin would say his famous " success has turned the heads" 

[55North]

Reflecting Faux Pas' comment, many thanks Mendeleyev for your insight as to what is really going on behind the headlines.
 
Even as 'ordinary' Russians appear to be increasingly concerned regarding economic matters, there are distinct rumblings in the Caucasus which will bode ill for the Kremlin. 

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/12/window-on-eurasia-russian-municipal.html

Furthermore, here's a further interesting development that won't be snuffed out by a bit of headbashing by the OMON.
 
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/12/window-on-eurasia-immigrants-working-in.html

[OlgaH]

I would be willing to bet that the OMON is already practicing with batons on lifesize dummies.  For something like that they may even bring in extra officers and bigger clubs.

Federation of trade unions of Sverdlovskaya oblast, that has made offer to organize a Muslim trade union for protection of Muslim workers-immigrants, is a part of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia.