Belarus...the aftermath in Minsk

[Faux Pas]

FP, I have never read such a provincial rag. I was shocked to see Mendy quoting it with a story on Belarus. I bet the majority of its readers must be scratching their heads trying to figure out where the hell is Belarus.

That's an AP story and could have been in most any newspaper in the country. I was just asking because I was genuinely interested in your answer. The fact that you do buy it gives you every right to b!tch about it. Your complaint about it is a common one

[Muzh]

That's an AP story and could have been in most any newspaper in the country. I was just asking because I was genuinely interested in your answer. The fact that you do buy it gives you every right to b!tch about it. Your complaint about it is a common one

Absolutely. The written press is not what it used to be.

[mendeleyev]

As I seldom write for AP (have in the past), I must either link or quote a source when posting their material and it was as convenient as any of the others. 

[viking]

My MIL in Belarus has a debit card linked to my bank here in the states. I deposit dollars and she withdraws rubles. I hope the exchange is working a little bit better for her. I will try to get some feel from her about what she sees in the street.

[mendeleyev]

That would be informative, Viking. I'm not aware of complaints about banks...yet...but there seems to be problems with citizens exchanging currency at currency exchanges.

OTOH, I've heard from foreign travelers who haven't experience any issues so far--normal in such a situation as the last thing the government needs is bad press for the modest amount of tourism that exists.

[tfcrew]

From RT
Russian Television channel on YouTube...

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBQq7eg98u4&feature=autoplay&list=FLacSa-4H-s1g&index=4&playnext=3[/youtube]

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal.

Russia will do the Belarus bailout, but not without a political price to Belarussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Unlike the last time however, the IMF will sit this one out. Lukashenko's dependence upon Communism and his heavy-handed election rigging have cost him any good will from the West and he is treading on thin ice in the eyes of his former friends Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia will provide the money, not out of love for Lukashenko, but to maintain stability in a borderland country so closely tied to Russian history. With currency reserves just half of what they were 6 months ago, the failed economic policies of Lenin and Stalin adopted and clung to so dearly by Lukashenko have driven Belarus to its knees.

In mid 2009 the IMF gave $3.5 Billion with Russia chipping in an another $2 Billion. The IMF these days isn't so lenient and the central bank will allow the Belarussian ruble to "float" creating an almost certain devaluation. Russia will loan Belarus $2.7 Billion in this new round of financing even though Russian President Medvedev has belittled Lukashenko on NTV television (Russian state-owned) to the Belarussian people.

Meanwhile the European Union has frozen assets and restricted visas for the Belarussian leadership and across Belarus frightened citizens are standing in long lines at currency exchange kiosks hoping to get out of their rubles while some value remains.

To many, Lukashenko appears mentally instable after the bombing of a Minsk metro station on 11 April. Multiple arrests were made within 24 hours of the bombing, really before investigators could even get started, as Lukashenko blamed both his opposition and "the West" for the bombings. Speaking to a the nation on state television, Lukashenko proclaimed that the bombing was the result of a foreign plot designed to bring down his government. He also said that the bombing happened because his government had allowed too much "unnecessary democracy."

[viking]

That would be informative, Viking. I'm not aware of complaints about banks...yet...but there seems to be problems with citizens exchanging currency at currency exchanges.

OTOH, I've heard from foreign travelers who haven't experience any issues so far--normal in such a situation as the last thing the government needs is bad press for the modest amount of tourism that exists.

When my wife placed a call today to wish her mom a Happy Easter, I had her ask about this situation. Yes, there are lines at the banks with people trying to exchange rubles for either dollars or euros, and yes, both are in very short supply. The people are not very happy about this. Anybody trying to sell anything of significance such as a house or car wants dollars. FYI. Her mom lives in Gomel, Belarus's second largest city.

[mendeleyev]

Thank you, Viking.

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

Threatening to expel Russian journalists for supposedly sowing “hysteria” in his country’s financial crisis, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus has received a warning from Moscow that such actions would endanger the bailout loan his country desperately needs. Russia has indicated that Belarus would need to sell billions in state assets in order to secure the loan but part of Lukashenko’s rambling outburst was a warning to Russia that Belarus would not sell off state assets cheaply.

In the midst of runaway inflation, Lukashenko’s socialist policies have failed and his crackdown on political opponents and journalists continues. It is much harder to control Russian media because many Belarussians watch TV channels from Russia.

Belarus devalued its ruble by 36 percent last week with the rate set at 4,932 to the dollar and again set to weaken to 4,977 tomorrow. Belarussian citizens are hoarding food staples and while the official inflation rate is 39%, in reality it is much higher with international market economists warning that the country could implode if soaring inflation isn’t brought into check. Lukashenko, who runs the country by fiat, has decreed that only local governors or the prime minister can authorize price increases for consumer goods.

Meanwhile the Belarussian news agency BelTA has announced that effective 1 June 2011 Belarus will increase export duties on oil and oil products exported from its territory outside the customs territory of the Customs Union states. Belarus receives Russian crude oil and petroleum products free of duties and the new law provides that duties from the export of Belarusian crude oil will go to the budget of the Republic of Belarus and the duty on export of petroleum products to the Russian Federation.

[mendeleyev]

The following report comes from the Belarus underground news service, Charter 97:

Even amid the economic crisis Belarusians are trying to help families of the political prisoners.

The wife of Zmitser Bandarenka, a coordinator of “European Belarus”, Volha Bandarenka, has told charter97.org about the solidarity which helps families of the activists arrested in December 19 case.

“For instance, Alla Sannikova asked to buy a hair trimmer and razor set to Andrei. We came to Kamarouski market. We started to choose one, and asked advice of a vendor. In such situations I always give it to the person straight. So I told that we need a hair trimmer for the presidential candidate, a political prisoner Andrei Sannikov. He is in prison, so we needed a device of good quality, for it not to break. Vendors perked up and said they voted for Sannikov, that they are following his case and cases of other political prisoners. They have been looking for a better hair trimmer, and they sold it at a greatly reduced price, (50 per cent),” Volha Bandarenka said.

The wife of the political prisoner recalls how she had to take a taxi not long ago. She started up a conversation with the driver. As a result, the driver refused to take money.

The same happens with wives of other political prisoners. For instance, Maryna Adamovich recently bought sportswear for imprisoned Mikalai Statkevich. While she was choosing it, someone phoned her. The vendor heard her conversation about her husband, understood who had been meant, and refused to take money. As a modest person, Maryna could not take the leisure suit for free. Finally, the salesperson agreed to take only 20 dollars from Statkevich’s wife.

“Everywhere I go – in shops, markets, I ‘m trying to tell about political prisoners. Everyone supports me, criticize authorities; everyone is concerned. It’s a kind of a public opinion survey.

A huge number of people from the past have appeared in my life again when Zmitser was arrested. My and his former colleagues, co-workers, childhood friends, classmates – everyone tires to help. Recently an old man found me though a newspaper. It turned out he know Zmitser back in the 1970-ies. He brought money for a parcel to prison to him… I know that the same things are happening with all families of political prisoners. The solidarity is great,” Volha Bandarenka said.

[mendeleyev]

Human Rights Watch is reporting that one of the main opposition leaders, Zmitser Bandarenko, was finally granted a doctor's visit after 5 months since being severely beaten and jailed following the Belarussian elections.

Bandarenko is being held in a special Interior Ministry prison on Valadarski Street in Minsk. Upon examination, for which his family has been begging the government, a neurologist says that an operation will be needed and will recommend that the prisoner be moved to a place better suited for the necessary treatment. The doctor went so far as to report that without speedy treatment Bandarenko will be wheelchair bound for the remainder of his life. The doctor, Volha Bandarenko, reported that already Bandarenko’s foot is hanging immovably. The doctor was allowed a few minutes with his wife.

Bandarenko was badly beaten by KGB troops during his arrest.

The European Parliament has entered the fray, and "condemns the continued detention, trials and sentencing on political grounds of civil society representatives and opposition leaders, including former presidential candidates, in the context of the elections of 19 December 2010; and demands that the Belarussian authorities immediately and unconditionally release and rehabilitate all those detained on political grounds."

Zmitser Bandarenko is serving a 2 year sentence. During his brief trial, the KGB produced recorded telephone conversations from his home phone and mobile telephones which were used as evidence against him.

[mendeleyev]

From the underground Belarussian news agency, Charter 97:

The guy, sentenced for post-election protests on the Square, refused to admit his guilt, which made the prison chief to apply extreme measures.

According to Alena Likhavid the mother of the political prisoner who had a short meeting with her son in a penal colony in Navapolatsk, one would hardly recognize MIkita since his arrest.

“I do not know how this thin neck can carry his head. His hands are very cold, he is very pale with sunken cheeks, hollow eyes with dark circles under the them, because he can go out only once a week. He says: “Mum, I breathe through the window.” The prison chief told me he had been deprived of two visits. He just chose this way of struggling,” Alena Likhavid said to Radio Racyja.

For the first time, Mikita Likhavid was punished with 10 days in a punishment cell in the Navapolatsk penal colony. This time, he got 15 days. The activist of the For Freedom movement, sentenced to 3.5-year imprisonment for the Square, had his 21st birthday on May 27. He marked his birthday in his prison cell.

[mendeleyev]

When you parade a young under-aged son to the polls and allow the child to cast a ballot as well, you have given ordinary voters who are bound by the rules no hope of a fair election count. At that point with the state controlled TV cameras rolling he might as well have walked up to the camera lens and given his citizens the middle finger salute for good measure.

The man is psychologically sick. Raised by a single mother who constantly rotated sexual partners without regard to her son's well-being, with no knowledge of a biological father, being teased at school as a bastard, Jew and Gypsy (none of those complimentary titles in the CCCP), he is exacting his own brand of revenge against his former schoolmates.

Luka, it's time to grow up. We all have baggage from childhood to varying degrees. Get over it.


For those interested in following more closely the struggle of a people against an evil and repressive dictatorship, I would like to offer the following sources as places to begin:

 www.charter97.org
http://www.freebelarusnow.org/en/news
http://www.democraticbelarus.eu/
www.wireupdate.com
www.naviny.by
http://www.lphr.org/en/about-us/
http://www.spring96.org/

[mendeleyev]

The European Union has responded to the prison sentences of Belarus opposition leaders and members.Last week the EU froze more financial assets and added another 13 top Belarussian officials to the already existing EU travel ban: (pdf copy of that list from the EU here: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:136:0087:0090:EN:PDF)

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal:

As expected, today Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the Federal Law On Ratification of the Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus on Cooperation in Radio Electronic Combat.

The Agreement establishes the legal framework for coordinating military and security communication procedures between Russia and Belarus with the aim of ensuring military security in the region.

The Agreement stipulates cooperation in the following areas: creating a unified system of radio electronic combat for the regional grouping of forces from Russia and Belarus, as well as operations support for that system; preparing the parties’ military administration agencies, radio electronic combat units and subdivisions for joint action; coordinating use of radio frequencies and ensuring electromagnetic compatibility of the parties’ radio-electronic military equipment; conducting joint studies, consultations, and exchanging information in this area; creating new and modernizing existing special radio electronic combat equipment.

Mr. Medvedev signed the bill into law before leaving for a trip to Nizhny Novgorod to inspect what the administration has called "environmentally unfriendly facilities."

[tfcrew]

Belarus is on the verge of becoming a garage sale state....
Greece is headed that way too. 

The last hope is a loan from Stabilizing Fund of the Eurasian Economic Community, where Russia has a decisive voice. And Russia almost literary declared – if you want financial support, you need to start selling your state-owned enterprises. If Belarus agrees on Russia’s conditions it will receive a 1.2 bn USD loan from the Eurasian Economic Community this year. But it will hardly save the agonizing economy, even if the amount of the loan were to be much higher.

http://belarusdigest.com/2011/06/01/agony-belarusian-economy

[CanadaMan]

Belarus is on the verge of becoming a garage sale state....
Greece is headed that way too. 

In light of all this, would you recommend that a Western man look to Belarus for a wife as if it were a garage 'fire sale', or should they avoid it like the plague?   

[mendeleyev]

Hi CanadaMan,

I can appreciate your question and in one sense someone could say that it is a great time because financial insecurity might cause a lady to make a marriage decision. Were marriage a strictly financial decision the "exchange rate" would be in your favour. Personally, and that is the only way I can address the question, is that I'd be fearful if the reason a lady agreed to marry because of economic fears.

Now we need to understand that a woman is typically interested in whether a man is a good provider. That we can accept as normal. We'd expect her to make a good choice with a responsible man rather than marry a never employed bum. But that is not the same thing as a desperate lady agreeing to marriage out of fear for feeding her kids. Nor is it the same thing as a person agreeing to marriage because she/he things the other person is wealthy.

My point is that to my mind there is no substitute to old fashioned relationship building. Attraction leads to admiration and respect and those lead to love. Sure, financial stability is a consideration but that isn't the same thing as being available for marriage because of financial reasons.

[tfcrew]

In light of all this, would you recommend that a Western man look to Belarus for a wife as if it were a garage 'fire sale', or should they avoid it like the plague?   

There are some members here that have married ladies from Belarus.
They could better provide a prospective.

Russians are buying out industry from Belarus because the country is financially strapped.
Germany is bargain shopping in Greece for the same reason.
However, it seems that other European countries are also waning --   Ireland, Portugal and even Spain.
 

[mendeleyev]

From this morning's Mendeleyev Journal:

Holding on to Communism as if it were some great achievement, President of Belarus Aleksander Lukashenko continues to resist political modernization of his country. So, saying they have tired of playing political games and running up bigger and bigger loans to the stubborn dictator, Russia has cut off the electricity to Belarus effective at 12:01 am today, Wednesday.


 
Russia says that the electricity will stay off until Belarus fully pays for electricity it has already purchased and which remains unpaid. Russia's electric utility RAO lists the amount owed as 1.2-billion ruble ($43 million).

On 9 June Russia had cut electric supplies to Belarus by half as a warning and gave notice that Belenergo, the Belarussian electric utility, needed to settle up debts before the last week of June.


(Generating hall at Russia's powerful Savano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric station; photo: Андрей Корзун)

Russian authorities deny that the cutoff is political and say that Russia supplies only about 10% of the Belarus electric demand. Belarus says it has enough domestic currency to make the payments but is having problems finding countries willing to convert it into international hard currencies. Belarus last made a payment in mid June to cover the bill for March.

Some sources in Belarus say that Russia is trying to shut down the technology factories in Belarus that supply electronic goods such as microwave ovens and television sets to China, Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.

[TwoBitBandit]

This is awesome news for the MOB industry in Belarus.  My prediction is that the MOB industry in Belarus will continue to flourish.

[Rubicon]

This is awesome news for the MOB industry in Belarus.  My prediction is that the MOB industry in Belarus will continue to flourish.

Yes but perhaps for all of the wrong reasons.  I can see a line up of old mules heading to Belarus right now...

[mendeleyev]

Russia will light up Belarus–electricity back on in 2 days

From the Mendeleyev Journal:
World opinion perhaps? Russia will restore power deliveries to cash-strapped Belarus by this weekend after receiving a late payment for $21 million on Wednesday–not enough to bring the account current but enough that along with diplomatic communications from other nations, Russia will turn the light switch back on within 2 days.

Russia’s RAO Electric company had cut power supplies to Belarus early Wednesday. Meanwhile in Minsk energy officials said that Russian supplies accounted for only 12 percent of the power consumed and Belarus is frantically working to compensate by shifting local power generators to natural gas. Belarus national power supplier, Belenergo, used a commercial bank loan to make today’s partial payment.

 

(Above: logo of Belenergo power company, owned by the Belarus Energy Ministry.)

The Belarussian treasury has been emptied by dictator/president Aleksander Lukashenko’s social spending prior to his reelection in December and a sharp increase in energy prices by its much larger neighbor, Russia. Lukashenko has ruled with an iron fist for 17 years and his brutal crackdown on opposition groups after the election has left the small county isolated from the international community.

 

A recent poll showed a high level of mistrust in President Lukashenko. In regards to who was responsible for the deadly Minsk Metro subway bombing, 57% of those surveyed blamed President Lukashenko, 18% blame Russian Prime Minister Putin and only 24% believe it was the action of terrorists. (Poll: http://333monkeys.livejournal.com/187858.html)

The shortage of hard currency prompted by the isolation caused a run on cash exchange facilities as citizens anticipated a coming currency devaluation which was implemented in May.

[JR]

Now this:
 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43624574/ns/world_news-europe/