Divorce Rate Observations From The Cross Cultural Marriage Survey

[Jooky]

A while back Dan allowed to review the data collected through the cross cultural marriage survey and I'd like to post some of my observations to bring the statistics into a more relevant context (I hope!) with what's discussed here.
 
What I did first is sort the data to count only respondants where the wife was from Russia or Ukraine and the husband from any other country. I sorted the data between male respondants (all foreigners) and female respondants (Russian and Ukranian) separately as these might indicate the same couples and potentially cause some overlapped data.
 
I further restricted the data to respondants that indicated that they met their spouse through an IMB (International Marriage Broker) to see if the divorce rates differed.
 
Here are the results:
 
Met through any method
Women surveyed: 43 / 181 = 24% divorced
Men surveyed:  234 / 712  = 33% divorced
Total: 277 / 893 = 31% divorced
 
Met through IMB only
Women surveyed: 25 / 112 = 22% divorced
Men surveyed: 142 / 446 = 31% divorced
Total: 167 / 558 = 30% divorced
 
Looks favorable.
 
However, the survey is slanted towards recent marriages. 575 / 893 (65%)respondants married within 5 years of the survey. 386 / 558 (70%) of IMB respondants married within 5  years of the survey.
 
Here is where things get interesting (at least to me).
 
A year by year breakdown of the male respondants divorce rate.
 
Married 2009 4 /26 15%
Married 2008 9 / 118 07%
Married 2007 16 / 138 11%
Married 2006 22 / 129 17%
Married 2005 14 / 49 28%
 
Total married within 5 years of the survey: 65 / 460 14%
 
Married 2004 22 / 47 46%
Married 2003 18 / 25 72%
Married 2002 20 / 30 67%
Married 2001 23 / 41 56%
Married 2000 25 / 28 89%
Married 1999 61 / 81 75% (1999 and before)
 
Total married beyond 5 years of the survey: 169 / 252 67%
 
A year by year breakdown of the female respondants divorce rate.
 
Married 2009 2 /8  25%
Married 2008 5 / 30 26%
Married 2007 1 / 31  3%
Married 2006 0 / 38  0%
Married 2005 2 / 8  25%
 
Total married within 5 years of the survey: 10 / 115 9%
 
Married 2004 6 / 13 46%
Married 2003 1 / 5  20%
Married 2002 4 / 9 44%
Married 2001 5 / 9 55%
Married 2000 2 / 7 28%
Married 1999 15 / 23 65%
 
Total married beyond 5 years of the survey: 33 / 66 50%
 
There appears to me a distinct change at the 4-5 year year mark. Using the same breakdown here are the stats for IMB marriages only.
 
Male respondants:
Total married within 5 years of the survey: 38 / 306    12%
Total married beyond 5 years of the survey: 104 / 140 74%
 
Female respondants:
Total married within 5 years of the survey: 9 / 80    11%
Total married beyond 5 years of the survey: 16 / 32 50%
 
Total:
Total married within 5 years of the survey: 47 / 386    12%
Total married beyond 5 years of the survey: 120 / 172 70%
 
A few personal observations...
 
The respondants were mostly married within 5 years of the survey, and the vast majority of these were still married. There's a significant increase in divorces and decrease in respondants at the '4-5 year marriage mark'.
 
Possibly divorced couples are less likely to be involved on forums or respond to these type of surveys? Possibly long term couples (or no longer couples) in general are less likely to be involved on forums or respond to surveys?
 
It seems that women who responded to the surveys were less likely to be divorced.
 
I hope some of you find this useful or interesting. I find it interesting but that's about it. I can make my own foolish decisions without statistics to guide me. 
 
Thanks to Dan for providing the data from the survey!

[LAman]

THanks for the info Jooky.
 
The info I would be most interested in...is the age difference between the couples and how THAT would effect divorce rate. I did read an article with a survey that respondents( probably recent marriages) told of the age difference they would be most comfortable with. For the men it was 9 years and women it was 8 years.....and 65-70% were still married.

[Jooky]

Hey LAMan,
 
Here are some stats. Consistent with my post above, I looked at male respondants who married Russian or Ukrainian women, and divided the stats into two groups by years.
 
Year Married 2005-2009
65/456
 
Age Difference
0-5 9/78 11.5%
6-10 19/131 14.5%
11-15 17/130 13%
15-20 8/61 13%
21+ 12/56 21%
 
Year Married 1990-2004
165 / 241
 
Age Difference
0-5 32/47 68%
6-10 25/60 41%
11-15 48/64 75%
16-20 29/41 71%
21+ 20/29 70%

[BC]

Jooky,

Considering that the survey was taken at a particular point in time, you basically split the survey group into a younger and older 'crowd'.

Considering the longevity graph from the survey attached, the reults do seem to correlate. I doubt any assertions built on the breakdown is supportable.

Don't forget that although interesting, when 'drilling down' within a data set, the assumptions double with each factor added and margin of error increase exponentially with each level.

IMHO, in essence your breakdown only substantiates the original analysis.

[HiTech]

The respondants were mostly married within 5 years of the survey, and the vast majority of these were still married. There's a significant increase in divorces and decrease in respondants at the '4-5 year marriage mark'.
 
Possibly divorced couples are less likely to be involved on forums or respond to these type of surveys? Possibly long term couples (or no longer couples) in general are less likely to be involved on forums or respond to surveys?

I do not wish to detract from the work put in by Dan on this survey. But the survey must contain a big the statment that it is a sample of people who continue to visit "MOB" sights after having been or currently are married to a foreign person. Using myself as an example, I would not be in the data set simply because I no longer visit the sights. It is not by random chance that I no longer visit the sights but is a causal relationship.

I believe this is the biggest  issue with the survey. The filtering process of a person visiting the sights or not can drastically impact the results vs a true random sample. 

There is no easy way to know the effect of this filter but I believe we would agree that men married for 10 years or men divorced for a number of years from a FSUW or men who were divorced very quickly and have no desire to try again are not likely to visit the sights. Who is more likely to fill out the survey a divorced or married person? Opt in surveys always have this issue vs random samplings.

So any comparison between this survey and normal marriage surveys can not be used as a better / worse chance of divorce.

HiTech

[BC]

So any comparison between this survey and normal marriage surveys can not be used as a better / worse chance of divorce.

HiTech

HiTech,

I will agree that the task is getting more difficult.

An example:

One of the methods of finding a 'random sample' is using telephone book listings, pasting them to the wall and throwing darts.

But today, less and less folks have fixed phones, opting for mobiles instead.  Also more and more folks are going unlisted to avoid all those unsolicited advertisement calls (and surveys).  A pollster's nightmare statistically speaking.

OTOH, the internet does provide a rather wide and growing base.  Within the selected group to survey who does not have access to the internet?  IIRC Dan did all possible to get the word out and it was not just via this or other fora.  Press releases, etc etc.

Someone will have to do better to invalidate his results.  Until then, it's the best we got.

[Manny]

But the survey must contain a big the statment that it is a sample of people who continue to visit "MOB" sights after having been or currently are married to a foreign person. Using myself as an example, I would not be in the data set simply because I no longer visit the sights. It is not by random chance that I no longer visit the sights but is a causal relationship.

You visit this site don't you? So you will have had a link to it and had an opportunity to be in the data set.


My recollection was the survey went out to as large a group of people as was possible for Dan to access. It went out through several agencies' age old mailing lists too. It will have caught quite a large number of people that are not frequent visitors to "MOB sites".

[Jumper]

I havnt looked it up,put out her as  merely a  thought-
 
I would think domestic rates of divorce have a similar breakpoint where the percentage ending in divorce ratchet up considerably, I don't doubt it would be in the 5 to 7 year range.
 
As only observations of friends and aquantences over the years..
 
Generally there just seems a *shelf life* on relationships that it seems takes considerable effort and commitment of both partners to get past. Once past it seems to stabilioze,
and then face another issue in another 7 to 10 years.
 
 

[Jooky]

Hey AJ,
 
Maybe this study is what you're looking for:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/01news/firstmarr.htm
 
It's from 2001 and the data is from 1995. How much things have changed since then, I have no idea. Maybe there are more recent studies with the same data. I just looked quickly.
 
There is a table at the end of the article regarding first-marriages. Percent of marriages 'disrupted' after a period of time. From the study there is a steady increase over time:
 
after 2 years 7%
after 5 years 20%
after 10 years 33%
after 15 years 43%
after 20 years 50%
 
This study, taken at a point in time, is more comparable with the cross cultural survey than an overal divorce rate calculate as number of divorces / number of marriages per year.
 
 

[Jumper]

Jooky thanks.
 
Yes that is something that is far more comparable, and can make some sense of the specific cross cultural survey results  vs domestic marriages.
 
 
 
Oddly enough a huge percentage of my aquantences, friends and familty all divorced within 5 years, seems very  few made it past that mark, those that did often divorced as soon as the kids were gone/empty nest.
Very very few i know made it past that particular stage.
 
I just find that rare in western socirty anymore,
yet go back two or three generations,
my grandmothers time frame, and all of them married for lifetime. All.
I happened to have known almost all of my great grandparents..all were married for life as well.
 
Get to my father, my mother, all the aunts,  uncles,
all were divorced.Again all.
Granted a very small sample group !
 ( well my one grandfather did have 13 brothers and sisters lol)
but it seems fairly in line with my observbations of other families.
 
Times have changed, drastically, in a few generations.
 
 

[HiTech]

AJ I'm on the exact flip side.

Of my uncles and aunts (20 marriages) none were/are divorced.
of my 70 cousins 1 is was divorced.
Of my brothers and sisters (3 each) none are divorced and I have never been.
Of my 20 nieces and nephews. 1 is separated.

My parents celebrated  their 64th this year.

Between the 2 of our families, we probable average the 43%.

HiTech

[BillyB]

 
There are so many factors for and against whatever argument one has for men who marry at home vs men who marry foreign women.


Most men here have at least one divorce under their belt. If we lump them into a group, they will have an average 65% divorce rate after marrying a second time. It's looks real bad for men and women entering their second or third marriages. Some of us just aren't marriage material


Seems like there are all kinds of arguments for or against statistics showing divorce rates between domestic marriages and ones with mixed cultures.

Really, this isn't about the argument which marriages last longer, foreign or domestic. This argument is about which is better, foreign women or domestic women. Which women value a man and marriage more. That's what we are trying to figure out. Who's better for us men.


This determination should be made as individuals. Some men can't tolerate a woman from a different culture struggling to learn our culture and the language. Those guys should avoid foreign women.


For me, I can handle the culture and I think a RW is a better fit for me. Naturally I can find more family oriented RW who are proud to be and act like a woman compared to the available American women who has been influenced by feminists. I get turned off by feminist attitudes. I reject them. I find RW more beautiful thus I would naturally take care of a woman if I find her more attractive and respectable.


A BIG reason for success in any marriage is the amount of attention we give to our partner. There is no doubt we, as men, give more attention to beautiful women. Some of us respect intelligent women, and those with outstanding personality's and big hearts. So we give them more attention too and when our women are happy, they tend to reciprocate attention and affection to us men.


I need to respect a woman to love her. I need to be physically attracted to a woman to be turned on. If she's overweight, I lose sexual attraction. Many men are like me. If we start to reject our woman, then we will begin to neglect her. If I plan on marrying a woman, I look at her long term. How her brain will mature and if she does or does not care about her body. If a man can't see himself sitting across the table with a woman looking at her with admiration years from now, he shouldn't gamble and marry her. All she would be to him is a short term relationship.


A few things I look from ladies I dated are how much they value marriage and a man. For some women, marriage is of convenience for themselves. Divorce is most likely a convenience too. I don't think women who think marriage is only beneficial to themselves are marriage material.
 
 

Of my uncles and aunts (20 marriages) none were/are divorced.
of my 70 cousins 1 is was divorced.
Of my brothers and sisters (3 each) none are divorced and I have never been.
Of my 20 nieces and nephews. 1 is separated.

 
I wanna drink what your family is drinking!


The apples don't fall far from the tree and I look at lady's families to get some picture on what's going on in her head.
 
I see the same things in my fiancee's family as I see in yours. It takes two to make a marriage work and how the two values marriage will determine whether it will survive or fail, especially during struggling times. How many of you guys never had to struggle? You will struggle and fall and hope you got a great woman sticking by your side instead of hopping off to a man she considers a bigger better deal.

[civi68]

I work for an employer as one of the supervisors with about 700 employees in several different locations. When I first started there 19 years ago, most people were married, financially stable, and retired with their wives or husbands. My bosses were role models of having stable marriages and finances. Now, I see long-term employees getting divorces in their 40's/50's. Most of the divorces are initiated by the women and the guy does not want the divorce. The new employee over the past few years typically comes in already divorced or never married regardless of age. As I see these employees over the years, they go through several unsuccessful relationships. Many of the employees I work with are women. Although I am not one of those guys that dates FSU women because I have resentments towards AW, I see many of the women at work unwilling to compromise with co-workers as well as their boyfriend or husband. There is also a lot of emotional instability such as bad tempers, resentments towards co-workers, etc.
   What to make of all this? I see a trend of people unwilling to compromise and having very high standards on what they want in a relationship. I see a lot more attention seeking/competitive/self-centered behavior. You would be surprised to see how many middle aged overweight women that expect a good looking guy that fits their narrow criteria. Some of these women won't date because they say they don't want a man but in reality, they won't date because the type of man they want doesn't want them. Along with these behaviors, I also see a lot more live for the moment and poor finances although my employer pays above average wages for my area. People just don't seem to value relationships or plan long-term as they used to in the past. People also seem to think of themselves very highly and have high standards for what they want in a partner physically, financially, and emotionally.
    Interestingly, the people I see at work who have been married for many years, manage their finances, and don't have the above traits, are good workers and seem happy with their life. I am sure most of us started the FSU search not just to find an attractive mate that is not overweight, but one who will be emotionally stable enough to stay in a marriage long-term.

[TomT]

The peak at two years, which one would expect from the GCG effect, seems to be absent.

[BC]

The peak at two years, which one would expect from the GCG effect, seems to be absent.

A real gcg is likely rare.  Just an additional excuse available when things go south.

[Turboguy]

A real gcg is likely rare.  Just an additional excuse available when things go south.

I am sure the guys who feel they married a GCG would disagree but personally I think there is a lot of truth in what you said.  I think if a woman is happy in her marriage she is going to stay.

[Daveman]

Interesting observations Civi, I tend to agree with much of it. 

...

Although I am not one of those guys that dates FSU women because I have resentments towards AW,
...

That's excellent.  There are some very beautiful and down to earth AW. 

I see many of the women at work unwilling to compromise with co-workers as well as their boyfriend or husband. There is also a lot of emotional instability such as bad tempers, resentments towards co-workers, etc.

Civi, meet FSUW, FSUW meet Civi...    You just described quite a number of ladies from across the sea as well.  I think most anyone can find a match anywhere, yep, even younger and prettier, skinnier and better dressed... sure, there are some from smaller towns, etc whose dating pool of available womenis limited but in most cases it's merely a matter of a guy wanting younger and prettier and they're easier to find/date in the FSU.

   What to make of all this? I see a trend of people unwilling to compromise and having very high standards on what they want in a relationship. I see a lot more attention seeking/competitive/self-centered behavior. You would be surprised to see how many middle aged overweight women that expect a good looking guy that fits their narrow criteria. Some of these women won't date because they say they don't want a man but in reality, they won't date because the type of man they want doesn't want them. Along with these behaviors, I also see a lot more live for the moment and poor finances although my employer pays above average wages for my area. People just don't seem to value relationships or plan long-term as they used to in the past. People also seem to think of themselves very highly and have high standards for what they want in a partner physically, financially, and emotionally.

There's a lot of truth in that paragraph.  I love the line "if you want to find a treasure, then be a treasure".  I think there are many who just don't quite get the second part, here, there, everywhere.

    Interestingly, the people I see at work who have been married for many years, manage their finances, and don't have the above traits, are good workers and seem happy with their life. I am sure most of us started the FSU search not just to find an attractive mate that is not overweight, but one who will be emotionally stable enough to stay in a marriage long-term.

I think there is one idea that you kinda touch on here that is axiomatic.  Those who are happy with themselves tend to be happy in life and relations, while those who are not aren't.

[OlgaH]

... and the other side of the coin is there are plenty of western men involved in MOB who are simply social misfits in their own culture. Unfortunately some FSU women get to know it after wedding and living sometime together under one roof.

[OlgaH]

... but one who will be emotionally stable enough to stay in a marriage long-term.

Daveman,

"a marriage long-term" is a loose concept  of course everyone has its own conception regarding a "long-term marriage", honestly for me it is "until death do us part"

[Daveman]

Daveman,

"a marriage long-term" is a loose concept  of course everyone has its own conception regarding a "long-term marriage", honestly for me it is "until death do us part"

Yes indeed... the conceptual definitions vary and I agree with you... but.. those aren't my words, those are Civi's... I screwed up the post somehown or another with my "quoting"...


But, to continue the notion... there are some who believe that nothing is meant to last.  personally, I think mutual belief, and action (or perhaps more importantly inaction) based on the belief, has far more to do with how long term "long term" actually is.


Now, lemme go back and fix that post... 

[OlgaH]

personally, I think mutual belief, and action (or perhaps more importantly inaction) based on the belief, has far more to do with how long term "long term" actually is.

Yes, it takes two special people, special not in public opinion but special for each other.

When I see more than 80 years old parents of our friends still holding each other hands at their grandson's college graduation my heart fills with joy for these two special for each other people.

[Maxx2]

A real gcg is likely rare.  Just an additional excuse available when things go south.

Since you are usually wrong about your observation 100% of the time I would gage GCGs are as common as houseflies.

[TomT]

So, should we conclude that GCGs are waiting more than five years to dump their mules because of the bad economy?

[Maxx2]

Tom, go to my site immigrationfraudvictims.com and check the forum section. You will see dozens and dozens of people claiming to be married to GCGs, both American men and American women. The interesting thing is few people want to get involved advising them... including me. It's a dead dreary place about a subject that most do not want to regurgitate. People that have this happen to them flame up for a little while, a primal scream if you will and then just drift off. They are not likely to participate in forums and polls that remind them of the horrible episode of their lives. Those that divorce RW spouses usually want to put this all behind them. The poll well intended as it is, is not accurate.


Also Tom on another forum you said about me that I always take the side of men. This is not true. I advise both men and women, American and foreign. A few months ago I helped a Pakistani women find a women's shelter in Chicago. But I am wore out on the whole subject as I believe the other administer of IFV is so I find myself ignoring cries for help.


http://immigrationfraudvictims.freeforums.org/here-is-my-story-t285.html

Things have gotten so bad that we can only communicate by email now and I sent her a message asking her to attend a "marriage workshop" and got this response from her: "This is actually really silly. We have nothing to 'restore' so 'marriage restoration' is not about us. Can we just be friends who have sex sometimes? Without this artificial strain trying to act like what we are not?"Now I'm more paranoid than ever and am being told there is nothing I can do. She is here and I'm on the hook to support her and her daughter until such time as she either returns to Russia on her own free will or obtains her citizenship. OUCH!!!The mind games and psychological warfare are almost unbearable. The boys have about had their fill of it. Not sure how much longer I can hold up.Any suggestions?

None so far.

[wicheese]

Max,
 
Always interesting to read your input on the subject as you have a lot of relevant expierence on the topic.  But, when I read the comment below I had to smile as it was almost identical to what I heard from a co-worker who is getting divorced from his AW wife, so things are the same around the world as he also complains about having to pay her support:
 

"Things have gotten so bad that we can only communicate by email now"

Now the real interesting question for the board is, what makes a GCG a GCG?  I remember talking to a RW who came to the USA through an marraige to an AM, it was to secure a future for her and her daughter (love was not part of the equation) and it lasted for 13 years.  So since her intent was to secure her future in another country, would she be considered a GCG, even if she stayed married for 13 years (BTW, this was the period of time it took for her to learn English, get a US degree, and a career where she could stand on her own feet)?