Putin will return to Presidency

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal:


(Moscow) It was at Skolkovo, the high tech technology development and Russia's answer to Silicon Valley, that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev first hinted that he would not run for a 2nd term as president in 2012. It wasn't in what he said, but rather what he didn't say on that spring day outside Moscow. What Mr. Medvedev did say in his first full press confidence as president was that he might be willing to retire "someday" in order to teach tomorrow's leaders on the Skolkovo campus.


United Russia Party Congress, September 2011

In the opening days of summer the two would spend a day bicycling together and holding intense talks in a prominent Moscow park and speculation still swirled as to who of the two would run for the top spot in Russia. The photo opportunities presented the two men united in purpose to serve Russia, adding to the rumours surrounding the future political of the largest geographical country in the world.

In August President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin went fishing in the Astrakhan region on the Volga River and as both men smiled while Medvedev was photographed with the larger fish, one could sense that the Medvedev presidency was in lame duck mode. Gone was the defiant Medvedev who had replaced Putin hires, used executive powers to overturn Putin policies and made decisions often viewed as opposite from the more hard-line Putin.

Last week however the speculation was heightened when Prime Minister Putin announced that Russian army and police salaries would be effectively doubled. The significance of the announcement was that the figure was higher than had recently been promised by President Medvedev. Just as significant was the news that the salary increase would be funded by Russian gas producer, Gazprom, a company tied to the Kremlin and formerly run by Medvedev.

For his part, Dmitry Medvedev was silent and the image of the President as someone about to step aside was more pronounced causing observers like Timothy Heritage of Reuters to write on Wednesday that "Despite hinting he wants a second term, the president has sunk deeper into Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's shadow in the past few weeks and disappointed supporters by failing to announce he will run in the presidential election in March."

Any remaining speculation ended this weekend at the United Russia party convention when on Saturday party Chairman Putin announced on Saturday that he would return to the top spot on the United Russia ticket, effectively assuring the world that he would retake the post after Russia's presidential elections in March of 2012. Under new rules adopted by the Duma during the Medvedev era the new presidential term will be for 6 years, making it possible for Mr. Putin to occupy the post for 12 years. Vladimir Putin was born in 1952 and would be 72 if he served two additional terms.


President Medvedev speaks to the United Russia Party Congress, 24 September 2011

Addressing the convention, President Medvedev set up Mr. Putin's announcement by saying, Good afternoon, dear friends. Naturally, it's a pleasure to speak here: there is a special energy in this room, it's simply charged with emotions. And of course, we are meeting on a special day: there are ten weeks until election day, and today you will approve the lists of candidates for State Duma deputies and the party's campaign programme.
A few words about how the elections will take place (I am obliged to say that as head of state, President and guarantor of the Constitution): they will be held under new rules. Thanks to a number of decisions in which you were directly involved, we have significantly revamped our electoral legislation. Together we have enacted a number of initiatives aimed at increasing the role of citizens in the work of governing institutions, in order to improve the quality of popular representation. And during this work United Russia has shown itself to be a strong and, I would even say, generous party, consistently improving the conditions for political competition.

For the rest of this article including the text of Mr. Medvedev's speech, go to the Mendeleyev Journal.

[Chicagoguy]

I was shocked !   Will the Duma go along with this ??   
I don't know if maybe I am making too much of this but in so many pictures I see of Putin his head is a little down and he seems to be sneaking a look up. In sort of an accusatory way. And Medvedev is smiling and strutting - unafraid.

[Muzh]

Why are you so shocked? Almost everyone knew this was going to happen. Nothing has changed, well, the mouth change but the policy stays the same.

[Chicagoguy]

I frequently use sarcasm. Sorry. I have been 95% sure this is the way it would end up.

[Muzh]

Ooops, sorry. We definitely NEED a tongue-in-cheek emoticon. 

[Faux Pas]

The more things change the more they remain the same. My wife told me after Medevyev took office that this would be happening. I'm sure she isn't clairvoyant. It would appear the dictator is beginning to surface

[ML]

I am not much into the politics of this; but why  is  it so sinister that Putin will run (and most likely be elected) as president again?

As I understand it, the voting is fairly free in Russia now, so  if the people want him, then what is the big deal?

I recall back in Regan's last years that there was some talk of trying to reverse the amendment that disallowed USA presidents from serving more than 8 years in total.

Isn't the work 'dictator' a little strong in cases where the elections are mostly free?

[Muzh]

Mod, you see? I told you we need that tongue-in-cheek emoticon. 

[mendeleyev]

As I understand it, the voting is fairly free in Russia now, so  if the people want him, then what is the big deal?

In theory, yes. But in theory only.
 
United Russia controls the Duma and the election process. The government pays for the campaign costs of the ruling party. The opposition, what little there is, fights a non-winable and uphill battle while being hampered at every step.

 

[BC]

In theory, yes. But in theory only.
 
United Russia controls the Duma and the election process. The government pays for the campaign costs of the ruling party. The opposition, what little there is, fights a non-winable and uphill battle while being hampered at every step.

Will there be a 'Russian Spring' ?  - Until then I will reserve any comment regarding whether or not their democratic system is valid or not.

[Faux Pas]

I am not much into the politics of this; but why  is  it so sinister that Putin will run (and most likely be elected) as president again?

As I understand it, the voting is fairly free in Russia now, so  if the people want him, then what is the big deal?

There is the surface and then there is under the surface. A little story, I was with my wife and we were visiting one of her friends at her work place. The lady spoke good english and she and I were having a discussion about US politics when she asked me what I thought about Obama. While I didn't disparage him, I did tell her I thought he would be bad for the country. She asked me as she pointed to a picture of Putin on the wall(not the President at the time Medevyev) if I had a picture of Obama on my wall? I told her no and she asked why, I said because I don't support him. She replied, I don't support him either (pointing to Putin) and thats the difference in Russian and American democracy. She is a highly respected Professor.

I recall back in Regan's last years that there was some talk of trying to reverse the amendment that disallowed USA presidents from serving more than 8 years in total.

Nothing but talk and a poor example or comparison

Isn't the work 'dictator' a little strong in cases where the elections are mostly free?

Not in this instance from the way I understand it. Putin waltzes to a 12 year term of the presidency and this is free elections?

[BC]

Faux,

It's sorta like marriage... why ruin a good thing.

Is Putin really that bad?  He seems to enjoy popular support so what the heck...

There are after all many 'brands' of democracy..

If there is no popular support of an alternative party, who are we to say what is right or wrong for them..

The two party system ain't working that well either..

[Faux Pas]

Faux,

It's sorta like marriage... why ruin a good thing.

Is Putin really that bad?  He seems to enjoy popular support so what the heck...

There are after all many 'brands' of democracy..

If there is no popular support of an alternative party, who are we to say what is right or wrong for them..

The two party system ain't working that well either..

I think you may have misconstrued my point. That being, Russia has a democracy and pretty much in full Russian form. It's not recognizable as American democracy and not even good for comparison. Then on the other hand, I know more than a few Russians who say it's Soviet communism with different names.

[Faux Pas]

Is Putin really that bad?  He seems to enjoy popular support so what the heck...

I inferred him a dictator. I don't know if he's "that bad" I know some who are Putin believers. The problem is, it is not very conducive to not be a Putin supporter. Thus, those who don't support him aren't very likely to be vocal about. Is that Russian democracy? You decide

[Muzh]

I think you may have misconstrued my point. That being, Russia has a democracy and pretty much in full Russian Soviet form. It's not recognizable as American democracy and not even good for comparison. Then on the other hand, I know more than a few Russians who say it's Soviet communism with different names.

There.
 
FP, I made a little correction to your post. I hope you don't mind. 

[Muzh]

I inferred him a dictator. I don't know if he's "that bad" I know some who are Putin believers. The problem is, it is not very conducive to not be a Putin supporter. Thus, those who don't support him aren't very likely to be vocal about. Is that Russian democracy? You decide

IMNSHO, I don't believe Putin is a dictator. The is the "face" of the 4 or 5 member committee ruling the Soviet Union Russia.

[Chicagoguy]

Bottom line is most Russian people I talk to like him. It seems they prefer strong leaders and in their history they have certainly had some. It is just not democracy like we have.

[mendeleyev]

Bottom line is most Russian people I talk to like him

I'm not so sure I'd agree with this in general. Russians respect strength but I find few who genuinely "like" Mr. Putin.

As just one example, in August I attended an "underground" rap concert (at my age not for the music certainly!) and met a lot of unhappy and angry young people who see Mr. Putin as the problem and want change. You can meet a lot of average age folk in Russia who are unhappy but not angry.

The mid age citizens have some memory of Soviet days and understand that in the grand scheme of things, their viewpoint really doesn't matter. So as long as Russia has a strong leader who can keep the country from falling off the world stage, they'll remain unhappy but unmoved. Russians are adept at finding happiness in their personal lives in spite of what transpires around them.

The young ones however are dangerous to the regime. They have no memories of when their views don't matter and they are the powder keg that could someday explode. This group tends to identify with Medvedev as he connected with them in social media, modern technology and his vision to move the country away from the old guard. They'll likely lose that admiration for Medvedev as Russians respect strength and dislike perceived weakness so this is a movement just waiting for a leader. (One reason why Putin cannot afford to allow Mikhail Khodorkovsky out of prison.)

For Putin to remain in power there will be an increased visibility of the powers of a police state.

[Hammer2722]

Was there really any doubts as to who was calling the shots even while Medvedev was President? Putin needed a placeholder President while he waited his time out. Make no mistake, there is just the illusion of democracy in Russia and nothing more. 

[Faux Pas]

IMNSHO, I don't believe Putin is a dictator. The is the "face" of the 4 or 5 member committee ruling the Soviet Union Russia.

That too is the way I see it. A table of ogliarchs  and power brokers calling the shots. Putin has served them and himself very well thus far

Bottom line is most Russian people I talk to like him. It seems they prefer strong leaders and in their history they have certainly had some. It is just not democracy like we have.

Like Mendy, thats not what I've observed either. Mendy's sample size and likely yours too is much bigger than mine. Mine only based on dozen or so I personally know, those that feel good enough to discuss the Russian political landscape with me. I sense in an open conversation within Russia, those that don't like or support Putin are quite reserved about admitting in public and hesitant in private


I've noticed most Russians love talking politics with those they trust and indoors. When I'm in Russia I seem to be a natural for such discussion. Mostly because I am an American and secondly, because I keep abreast and know a little of what I speak.

[BC]

That too is the way I see it. A table of ogliarchs  and power brokers calling the shots. Putin has served them and himself very well thus far

FP,

You forget that on top of it all he is sexy...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39YUXIKrOFk[/youtube]

[ECOCKS]

I'm not so sure I'd agree with this in general. Russians respect strength but I find few who genuinely "like" Mr. Putin.

........

The young ones however are dangerous to the regime. They have no memories of when their views don't matter and they are the powder keg that could someday explode. This group tends to identify with Medvedev as he connected with them in social media, modern technology and his vision to move the country away from the old guard. They'll likely lose that admiration for Medvedev as Russians respect strength and dislike perceived weakness so this is a movement just waiting for a leader. (One reason why Putin cannot afford to allow Mikhail Khodorkovsky out of prison.)

For Putin to remain in power there will be an increased visibility of the powers of a police state.

You mean like announcing increases in Soviet naval strength, restarting air patrols along the borders, setting up a border war against a weaker appointment and increasing military pay levels? Those sorts of things?

Hmmm.......

[mendeleyev]

To answer Hammer, and I do so respectfully, yes I had both doubts and hopes. I've seen both personalities and there were times when Medvedev used the office to either circumvent or negate Putin policies. He did so fearlessly. Publicly calling his PM foolish and immature on occasions is not the sign of a weak caretaker. When Medvedev addressed the United Russia steering committee in the Spring and set out his plan for the future many of those delegates reaffirmed that here was a man who wanted a different Russia and had set in place a way for Russia to get there.

Sadly, it is neither Putin nor Medvedev who calls these shots. Those who I term as being "in the shadows" wish for things to remain as they are. It is in their financial interests. They are the kingmakers and they have spoken.

You mean like announcing increases in Soviet naval strength, restarting air patrols along the borders, setting up a border war against a weaker appointment and increasing military pay levels? Those sorts of things?

Hmmm.......

Exactly.

Back in 2009 I wrote about the modernization of the Interior Ministry's OMOH ("Omon") troops whose primary mission is to protect the government from the citizens.

The "31" protests continue in Moscow and across the country on each month of 31 days to remind the government of Article 31 of the Federation Constitutional guarantees of free assembly and free speech. The crackdowns on those protests had weakened considerably during the Medvedev years but I'm betting that the velvet glove on those will be replaced quickly with a sledgehammer.

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal...


Russia’s longtime finance minister is out, sacked for insubordination on Monday after he and President Medvedev disagreed over budget items while on a live television program. The two men have often disagreed but never in public. Earlier in the weekend Mr. Kudrin criticized both Medvedev and Putin at a meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, saying that Medvedev’s military spending was irresponsible and blaming Putin for failing to account for deficits in Russia’s pension funds.

Mr. Kudrin is seated 2nd from the left of President Medvedev at a budget committee meeting on 21 September 2011.

Alexi Kudrin was not only Russia's Finance Minister, but he also served as Deputy Prime Minister to Vladimir Putin and insiders have speculated that the exchange may have been a set-up for Kudrin to muscle out Medvedev as the next Prime Minister after the 2012 elections in which Mr. Putin's return to the presidency is an almost certainty.

 
During the Sunday broadcast Mr. Kudrin openly questioned the president’s competence in economic affairs and then surprised the audience with the announcement that he'd rather quit than work for Mr. Medvedev, who is slated to become prime minister next year in a leadership swap with Vladimir V. Putin.

During the televised meeting from Dimitrovgrad, Mr. Medvedev said that,“No one has abolished discipline and subordination. If you think that you have different views on the economic agenda from the president, and that is me, then you can write a corresponding letter of resignation. You must answer, of course, here and now. Will you write the letter?”

Obviously surprised, Mr. Kudrin answered that he would seek the advice of Prime Minister Putin.

Not to be sidetracked, President Medvedev retorted that, “You can seek advice from whomever you want, including from the prime minister, but while I am president, I will make such decisions. You need to decide, and quickly.”

Just hours later Mr. Medvedev signed an executive order releasing Mr. Kudrin from his duties and the presidential press secretary confirmed that the firing was done with Mr. Putin’s knowledge. Under the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the prime minister must approve such actions.

Scene from the Finance Committee meeting of 3 August 2011 chaired by President Medvedev with Mr. Kudrin to his immediate right.

Are there breaks within the ruling elite that could divide the tandem of Medvedev and Putin? Some analysts believe that firing was motivated by a desire to solidify Mr. Medvedev's credibility after his ceding power back to Mr. Putin next year as announced in last week's United Russia party congress. However, Mr. Putin and Mr. Kudrin have also shared a long and close friendship and some believe the move is a way to release Kudrin to seek the Prime Minister position in 2012.

Mr. Kudrin was an essential member of the governing team that Mr. Putin initially put together while president, and some investors feel that his departure from the government could worsen Russia’s economic woes.

Medvedev (L) and Kudrin (R) in a meeting at the President's office,

23 May 2011.

Mr. Kudrin was among the St. Petersburg elite who brought Mr. Putin to Moscow in the 1990s to serve then-president Yeltsin.


(All photos courtesy of the Presidential Press Service and the Mendeleyev Journal.)

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal...


(Chelyabinsk Region, Russia)


(Medvedev at Chebarkul training ground, Chelyabinsk region)


One just had to wonder about his mood only days after announcing that he would give up something he wanted, another term as president, to step aside and make way for the return of Vladimir Putin.


President Medvedev set personal desires aside and moved forward to complete his duties right up until the 7th of May, the day he will relinquish his responsibilities to the Russian people and move forward to the next phase of public service.


So, it was after those exhausting days at the United Russia party congress in Moscow that President Medveded traveled to Chelyabinsk where today he observed the final stage of the Centre-2011 strategic military exercises at the Chebarkul training ground. Only partially tongue in cheek, it occurred to some that after the excitement of facing down and publically firing Finance Minister Alexi Kudrin, perhaps the war exercises were a bit more relaxing and low key.


Following a demonstration of the troops’ exercises, Dmitry Medvedev awarded state decorations to exercise participants and met with commanders of divisions and units of the Armed Forces, Interior Ministry, Federal Drug Control Service and other law enforcement agencies that participated in the exercises.

(Mr. Medvedev was accompanied by Russian Defense Minister
Anatoly Serdyukov.)

The President awarded state decorations to exercise participants. In his address, Mr. Medvedev noted the successful interaction between multi-service and diversified forces by saying, "We are reforming our Armed Forces, consistently creating new features and improving the organisational structure, the training system and support for the army and navy. Nevertheless, there are certain difficulties, which is natural because the task that we have undertaken is enormous. As all of you know very well –­ those of you who have served for a long time and those who began service only recently – our Armed Forces have not seen a reform on this scale in recent years."

(The president enjoyed a light-hearted moment with Defense Minister
Anatoly Serdyukov.)

In response to those that say his desire for modernization is unnecessary, Mr. Medvedev said, "Today we must give priority to comprehensive modern military training and acquisition of new equipment and weapons. We have just seen examples of new technology. All the necessary conditions exist to achieve these objects today. The army should not simply evolve but it must dispose of those functions that are called inessential. The army must carry out its duties rather than engage in housekeeping affairs. The transition to modern staff organisation and troop control system is difficult but absolutely necessary."



The Center-2011 strategic exercises of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) began on September 19 simultaneously at six training grounds in Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and are aimed at practicing the deployment of multi-service forces in the Central Asian direction.

(The President also met with Governor of Chelyabinsk Region Mikhail Yurevich.)

For more visit the Mendeleyev Journal.