This article got my curiosity because in the latest census the population numbers had begun to even out. So I went to the source used in the LA Times (not a paper I'd trust at face value, almost as bad as I view the NY Times when it comes to credibility) and had a look at Russia's National Audit sources but didn't find what the Times piece had indicated.
http://www.ach.gov.ru/ru/bulletin/.
Because of news syndicates (in this case McClatchy newspapers) that same article has been published from LA to NY to Seattle and countless medium and smaller cities and so a simple Google search will bring up the same storyline over and over again, all sourced back to the original article.
The LA Times piece claims that 1.25 million have left in the past "several years" but didn't bother to define what was "several years." The story also suggested that the number was comparable to earlier Soviet emigration after the October revolution. Perhaps or perhaps not, as the "fifth wave" of Russian emigration was 2 million persons who departed immediately after the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and following the advent of the Stalin-era terror in the 1930s.
However Lev D. Gudkov, director of the Levada Center, a highly respected and independent polling agency, has said that about 50,000 people leave Russia every year. 50,000 may seem like a lot but it takes a long time for 50,000 to equal 1.25 million. And what about those who arrive?
The same Levada Centre reported that 1 in 5 Russians would leave if possible. But that could mean a lot of things and the questions used were very limited. Leave for how long? Never to return? Return only to visit relatives? Leave in the summer for a home in Turkey or Bulgaria?
But are such polls and the National Audit statistics correct? Federal Migration Statistics from show a net increase both in 2010 and 2011.
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_06/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/01-03.htmWhen compared to other countries:
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_06/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/01-05.htmAre those numbers accurate?
The 2010 Census showed a population of 142 million. That has steadily decreased over the years, or so we're told.
2002: 147 million
2010: 142 million
That looks like a decrease to me. But wait, what's this:
1959: 117 million
1970: 129 million
In that light, perhaps 142 million doesn't look so bad after all.
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_12/IssWWW.exe/stg/d01/05-01.htmBirth rates have ticked up since 1992, however death rates have also and so there is reason for concern.
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_12/IssWWW.exe/stg/d01/05-03.htmOn an aside, were you to type in the
2010 All-Russia population census, usually within a ranking of 2 to 6 (varies from Google to Bing to Yandex to Yahoo, etc) you'll find this:
http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/russia-begins-taking-the-2010-census/On face value of the LA Times story, there is a lot of discontent among Russian voters. That is true. Discontent and increased interest in the opposition recently forced the government to order TV networks to cancel political ads (except United Russia of course--they're still airing). A recent poll by the Levada Centre shows that the average Russian trusts Putin and United Russia less and less and the election for the DUMA is just days away.
http://www.levada.ru/08-11-2011/reitingi-odobreniya-pervykh-lits-polozheniya-del-v-strane-elektoralnye-predpochteniyaBut is the discontent at such a pitch that it could drive 1.25 million Russians to just pack up and leave?
An excellent article by Gleb Cherkasov in Gazeta.ru (
http://www.gazeta.ru/column/cherkasov/3825842.shtml) suggests suggests that United Russia will win the DUMA on 4 December and Putin the presidency in March, but winning at much lower numbers than previously thought possible.
That scenario may prove to be true as a Kremlin poll leaked to newspapers showed that United Russia in the Moscow oblast may struggle to garner more than 29% of the vote on 4 December. This of course would have implications as Medvedev's main focus since the Party Convention has been to lead the election effort. If he can't muster up at least a respectable win, Putin may not feel like naming him as the Prime Minister and go another direction for that post in 2012.
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/elections2011/2011/11/07_a_3824774.shtmlOther media perspectives:Moscow Times cities an increase in emigration:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/emigration-from-rublyovka-is-tangible/448784.htmlNovoya Gazeta does also and it would appear that the November 2011 LA Times article might have been influenced from this and the earlier Forbes article as well according to Novoya Gazeta, in an article written by Dmitry Oreshkin.
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/7330.htmlOreshkin acknowledges the political implications but describes the situation today as the "Sixth Movement" or wave of emigration but this time it's a different kind of migrational wave, or as he writes,
Так мы и живем в колебательном режиме, (we live in a mode of constant movement). A form of his word колебательном can mean to swing back and forth, sort of like on a pendulum, and what he means is that is that Russians now have both the freedom and in some cases the financial means to move back and forth, in and out of the country as needs or lifestyle dictates.
Forbes has an interesting take on the emigration story but it should be pointed out that the Forbes story was run before the LA Times, as if perhaps the Times may have picked up old information and tried to cycle it/spin the theme into a new story. While not saying this is the case, such happens all the time.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2011/10/03/did-leon-aron-of-the-american-enterprise-institute-just-invent-a-statistic-on-russian-emigration/My take: As for the LA Times photo of long lines at the US Embassy, my gut tells me that lots of folks want to travel, and have the freedom and income to do so, and a line for permanent exodus would be a lot smaller than that particular photo.
In fact, the comments from the Chair of the national Audit Chamber on Radio Echo were not made in November as the LA Times seems to suggest, but rather earlier in the year. Much earlier, as in
January 2011.
I checked the program logs for Echo Moscow, the popular radio station and the source for the LA Times quotes from
Сергей Степашин (Sergei Stepashin) the Chairman of the Russia National Audit Chamber who is credited by the Times as saying that 1.25 people had fled the country in the past "several years." The LA Times article was published on 14 November 2011.
Radio Echo Moscow station logs show that Mr. Stepashin has been a guest on:
15 January 2011
19 September 2009
23 April 2007
24 December 2007
25 December 2002
20 January 2000
10 November 1999
13 September 1999
Those who speak Russian can listen to the archived audio of each interview here:
http://echo.msk.ru/guests/660/ You will need to scroll down more than halfway on this page to find those audio archives.
Some readers may remember his role as Chairman of the Commission on investigating KGB involvement in the coop attempt against Gorbachev. (There was ample evidence, most of which the government ordered sealed to this day.)
My point on the dates of the interviews is that the LA Times piece, although it may have some validity, should have used language such as "back in January" or "earlier this year" when attributing statements from the Chairman in order to bolster the Times storyline. Bad journalism. Not a big surprise.
What does lend credence to the Times story is capital flight. Former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin had already warned the administration that flight of capital is leaving Russia at an alarming rate, double the USA. In US dollars, $31 billion has been spirited out of Russia in the first six months of 2011, compared with $30 billion in all of 2010 in the US. Given the differences in population and sizes of economies, the Kremlin should indeed view that as an urgent wake-up call.
...just food for thought.
Mendeleyev
Totally unrelated: For those debating on the ratio of females to males. Here is the Federal Statistic Service word on the issue:
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b10_12/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d01/05-03.htmMarriage and divorce rates:
http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b11_06/IssWWW.exe/Stg/d03/01-01.htm
