Protesters in Ukraine remind us of the priceless benefits of being EU members

[Larry1]

The Berkut is the Ukrainian version of the OMON.  They will be the ones responsible for clearing out the protesters.  I came across this interesting photo of one of them.

The photo was captioned as follows:

Every Ukrainian fighter should be fed well!

http://englishrussia.com/2014/01/21/ukrainian-berkut-fighter/#more-137040

Maybe they should make those helmets with the option of a double chin strap.

[Anotherkiwi]

Sorry AK, I thought you knew about the "Hunger Games" trilogy.

Nope - doesn't sound like my kind of entertainment!

[mendeleyev]

Yanukovich appears ready to form a new government and...sign the EU agreement at some point.

Photos, quotes from Friday's meeting with Yanukovich and the opposition, plus videos of how protesters are being treated by riot police during the "truce" that was called early on Friday.

It is all here at the Mendeleyev Journal: http://wp.me/peVMt-3a7

[calmissile]

I hope your right, but I am skeptical.   I don't see how Yanukovich can stay in power.  The people don't want him and I don't think it likely that he can throw the rest of the government under the bus and shed the blame that lies squarley on his shoulders.

We will see what happens.  Putin must be squirming in his shorts about now.   

[mendeleyev]

The latest from the Mendeleyev Journal: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/ukraine-is-crying-but-not-dead-yet/

[JayH]

The latest from the Mendeleyev Journal: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/ukraine-is-crying-but-not-dead-yet/

"Ukraine is crying, literally, as the street battles continue. At no other time have I ever felt so sad about this beautiful land and her people. I have shed tears, and prayed, and cried some more."


Mende --they are your words  and expressed beautifuly as always-I can only agree.

[lordtiberius]

[mendeleyev]

LT, I watched that scene unfold. The opposition moved to the Ukraine House on European Square and before long, with Ukrainian riot troops quartered inside, the three main opposition leaders gave speeches from the front steps of that house.

Then protesters rushed inside and broke thru the entry and first halls. Before long the outnumbered riot troops were being tear gassed by the protesters as they attempted to defend themselves in narrow hallways.

Meanwhile outside reinforcements arrived but they were outnumbered and kept at a distance. Then the opposition leadership entered the building and soon a pathway had been formed for the riot troops to leave. They joined their reinforcements and left the area.

I personally believe that Ukraine is having a needed conversation with herself. Unfortunately she waited until it was too late to avert violence. I pray that she will listen to all her voices, from every territory that forms this beautiful republic, and then will make her own decision about her own future.

[lordtiberius]

This was going to happen sooner or later.  I think the Euromaidan activists couldn't have played this any better.  The Opposition pols get a C+ the Western diplomats get a D-.

[Muzh]

This was going to happen sooner or later.  I think the Euromaidan activists couldn't have played this any better.  The Opposition pols get a C+ the Western diplomats get a D-.

And what do you suppose the Western diplomats should do, Mein Fuhrer?

[jone]

I agree with Muzh.  The Western Diplomats are there with a promise of some undefined future.  The trade agreement with EU is nothing more than a set of rules that both promise to play by.

We see no deliverance through a stabilization fund or any other such tool that was offered to Poland and other countries as they came on board.  Ukraine is, once again, the last to the table.  Only able to pick up scraps.

[Muzh]

Let's be more succint.
 
Any foreign power that intervene will de-legitimize what the Ukranian people have accomplished so far, and that is to get Yanucescu back to his golden toilet.
 
This is a fight that ONLY the Ukrainian people should fight.
 
AND NO promises from the Western diplomats as a result of regime change. Actually, the only promise should be that they will be happy to talk to the new government. PERIOD.

[Muzh]

Envious of Ukraine, Russians are circulating this satirical map of Russia 

 
MOSCOW — Since Ukraine's protests began, with various constituencies struggling for the country's future, maps offering to explain the crisis have been flashing through the Web. One shows where local citizens have risen up to seize government offices; another depicts where the dominant Party of Regions, affiliated with President Viktor Yanukovych, has been banned; a third points out the division between Russian speakers in the east and Ukrainian speakers in the west.
 
Now, Russian social media users are circulating a satire of the Ukraine maps with their own map "explaining" Russia, posted at the top of this page and translated into English. Russian activists have been feeling abashed and envious about the degree to which Ukrainians have been standing up to authorities and demanding their say, first about integrating more with Europe, then refusing to accept laws restricting freedom of speech and assembly. Russians may wish their own protests had been more robust, enduring and successful, but they haven't lost their sense of humor.
 
You'll notice that, unlike the Ukraine maps that are awash in red to indicate protests that have seized local administrative buildings, the Russia map has none at all. In Russia, protests against election fraud and President Vladimir Putin's authoritarianism began in December 2011 but dissipated by late summer 2012. Ardor began to cool after a couple of dozen people — mostly ordinary, few leaders among them — were arrested on the eve of Putin's inauguration and charged with instigating mass riots, attacking police and other crimes that threatened to keep them in prison for years.
 
Demonstrators in Russia never got close to occupying a building, nor were they even able to camp out in a major square as they have done in Ukraine. Moscow protesters who set themselves up in a small park were soon roughly evicted.
 
Then there's the lonely blue spot, in the Chechen region of the North Caucasus. Local ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, who is backed by Moscow, wields nearly unlimited and often frightening power there. In charge since 2007, Kadyrov is granted such autonomy in exchange for tamping down any signs of insurgency — Islamic or otherwise.
 
   The vast white spaces are another dark joke. Russia's 2011 and 2012 demonstrations were concentrated in Moscow. Unlike in Ukraine, they didn't sweep through the country. So, vast Russia is depicted as almost entirely white: No one cares.
 
Wait. Did we say this was funny?
 
The Washington Post

[Jumper]

The impact this has is very real on Ukrainians on pensions.
[size=78%][/size]

[JayH]

The shocking faces of the  "out of control" protesters.

[JayH]

The shocking face of revolt!

[Belvis]

  The vast white spaces are another dark joke. Russia's 2011 and 2012 demonstrations were concentrated in Moscow. Unlike in Ukraine, they didn't sweep through the country. So, vast Russia is depicted as almost entirely white: No one cares.
 
Wait. Did we say this was funny?
 
The Washington Post

The Washington Post is not quite correct. Actually most Russians cares well to keep the map in white and ready to fight with Ukraine-like revolution.  Putin's support rating is steady at 60% as a matter of fact, so no popular uprising in near future.

[Muzh]

[Me: Personaly, I believe this is in response to the Soviet relic mentality. Maybe he should start viewing things from a different (generational) perspective.]
 
Perspectives on the Ukrainian Protests
 
Geopolitical WeeklyTuesday, January 28, 2014 - 04:05
 
By George Friedman

A few months ago, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich was expected to sign some agreements that could eventually integrate Ukraine with the European Union economically. Ultimately, Yanukovich refused to sign the agreements, a decision thousands of his countrymen immediately protested. The demonstrations later evolved, as they often do. Protesters started calling for political change, and when Yanukovich resisted their calls, they demanded new elections.
 
Some protesters wanted Ukraine to have a European orientation rather than a Russian one. Others felt that the government was corrupt and should thus be replaced. These kinds of demonstrations occur in many countries. Sometimes they're successful; sometimes they're not. In most cases, the outcome matters only to the country's citizens or to the citizens of neighboring states. But Ukraine is exceptional because it is enormously important. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has had to pursue a delicate balance between the tenuous promises of a liberal, wealthy and somewhat aloof Europe and the fact that its very existence and independence can be a source of strategic vulnerability for Russia.

Ukraine's Importance
 
Ukraine provides two things: strategic position and agricultural and mineral products. The latter are frequently important, but the former is universally important. Ukraine is central to Russia's defensibility. The two countries share a long border, and Moscow is located only some 480 kilometers (about 300 miles) from Ukrainian territory -- a stretch of land that is flat, easily traversed and thus difficult to defend. If some power were to block the Ukraine-Kazakh gap, Russia would be cut off from the Caucasus, its defensible southern border.
 
Moreover, Ukraine is home to two critical ports, Odessa and Sevastopol, which are even more important to Russia than the port of Novorossiysk. Losing commercial and military access to those ports would completely undermine Russia's influence in the Black Sea and cut off its access to the Mediterranean. Russia's only remaining ports would be blocked by the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. gap to the west, by ice to the northeast, by Denmark on the Baltic Sea, and by Japan in the east.
 
This explains why in 1917, when the Bolsheviks took power and sued for peace, the Germans demanded that Russia relinquish its control of most of Ukraine. The Germans wanted the food Ukraine produced and knew that if they had a presence there they could threaten Russia in perpetuity. In the end, it didn't matter: Germany lost Word War I, and Russia reclaimed Ukraine. During World War II, the Germans seized Ukraine in the first year of their attack on the Soviet Union, exploited its agriculture and used it as the base to attack Stalingrad, trying to sever Russia from its supply lines in Baku. Between the wars, Stalin had to build up his industrial plant. He sold Ukrainian food overseas and used it to feed factory workers in Russia. The Ukrainians were left to starve, but the industry they built eventually helped the Soviets defeat Hitler. After the Soviets drove the Germans back, they seized Romania and Hungary and drove to Vienna, using Ukraine as their base.
 
From the perspective of Europe, and particularly from the perspectives of former Soviet satellites, a Ukraine dominated by Russia would represent a potential threat from southern Poland to Romania. These countries already depend on Russian energy, fully aware that the Russians may eventually use that dependence as a lever to gain control over them. Russia's ability not simply to project military power but also to cause unrest along the border or use commercial initiatives to undermine autonomy is a real fear.
 
Thinking in military terms may seem more archaic to Westerners than it does to Russians and Central Europeans. For many Eastern Europeans, the Soviet withdrawal is a relatively recent memory, and they know that the Russians are capable of returning as suddenly as they left. For their part, the Russians know that NATO has no will to invade Russia, and war would be the last thing on the Germans' minds even if they were capable of waging one. The Russians also remember that for all the economic and military malaise in Germany in 1932, the Germans became the dominant power in Europe by 1939. By 1941, they were driving into the Russian heartland. The farther you move away from a borderland, the more fantastic the fears appear. But inside the borderland, the fears seem far less preposterous for both sides.
 
Russian Perspectives
 
From the Russian point of view, therefore, tighter Ukrainian-EU integration represented a potentially mortal threat to Russian national security. After the Orange Revolution, which brought a short-lived pro-EU administration to power in the mid-2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear that he regarded Ukraine as essential to Russian security, alleging that the nongovernmental organizations that were fomenting unrest there were fronts for the U.S. State Department, the CIA and MI6. Whether the charges were true or not, Putin believed the course in which Ukraine was headed would be disastrous for Russia, and so he used economic pressure and state intelligence services to prevent Ukraine from taking that course.
 
In my view, the 2008 Russo-Georgian War had as much to do with demonstrating to Kiev that Western guarantees were worthless, that the United States could not aid Georgia and that Russia had a capable military force as it did with Georgia itself. At the time, Georgia and Ukraine were seeking NATO and EU membership, and through its intervention in Georgia, Moscow succeeded in steering Ukraine away from these organizations. Today, the strategic threat to Russia is no less dire than it was 10 years ago, at least not in minds of the Russians, who would prefer a neutral Ukraine if not a pro-Russia Ukraine.
 
Notably, Putin's strategy toward the Russian periphery differs from those of his Soviet and czarist predecessors, who took direct responsibility for the various territories subordinate to them. Putin considers this a flawed strategy. It drained Moscow's resources, even as the government could not hold the territories together.
 
Putin's strategy toward Ukraine, and indeed most of the former Soviet Union, entails less direct influence. He is not interested in governing Ukraine. He is not even all that interested in its foreign relationships. His goal is to have negative control, to prevent Ukraine from doing the things Russia doesn't want it to do. Ukraine can be sovereign except in matters of fundamental importance to Russia. As far as Russia was concerned, the Ukrainian regime is free to be as liberal and democratic as it wants to be. But even the idea of further EU integration was a clear provocation. It was the actions of the European Union and the Germans -- supporting opponents of Yanukovich openly, apart from interfering in the internal affairs of another country -- that were detrimental to Russian national interests.
 
European Perspectives
 
Ukraine is not quite as strategically significant to Europe as it is to Russia. Europe never wanted to add Ukraine to its ranks; it merely wanted to open the door to the possibility. The European Union is in shambles. Given the horrific economic problems of Southern Europe, the idea of adding a country as weak and disorganized as Ukraine to the bloc is preposterous. The European Union has a cultural imperative among its elite toward expansion, an imperative that led them to include countries such as Cyprus. Cultural imperatives are hard to change, and so an invitation went out with no serious intentions behind it.
 
For the Europeans, what the invitation really meant was that Ukraine could become European. It could have the constitutional democracy, liberalism and prosperity that every EU state is supposed to have. This is what appealed to most of the early demonstrators. However improbable full membership might be, the idea of becoming a modern European society is overwhelmingly appealing. Yanukovich's rejection made some protesters feel that their great opportunity had slipped away -- hence the initial demonstrations.
 
The Germans are playing a complex game. They understood that Ukrainian membership in the European Union was unlikely to happen anytime soon. They also had important dealings with Russia, with which they had mutual energy and investment interests. It was odd that Berlin would support the demonstrators so publicly. However, the Germans were also managing coalitions within the European Union. The Baltic states and Poland were eager to see Ukraine drawn out of the Russian camp, since that would provide a needed, if incomplete, buffer between them and Russia (Belarus is still inside Russia's sphere of influence). Therefore, the Germans had to choose between European partners, who cared about Ukraine, and Russia.
 
The Russians have remained relatively calm -- and quiet -- throughout Ukraine's protests. They understood that their power in Ukraine rested on more than simply one man or his party, so they allowed the crisis to stew. Given Russia's current strategy in Ukraine, the Russians didn't need to act, at least not publicly. Any government in Ukraine would face the same constraints as Yanukovich: little real hope of EU inclusion, a dependence on Moscow for energy and an integrated economy with Russia. Certainly, the Russians didn't want a confrontation just before Sochi.
 
The Russians also knew that the more tightly pro-Western forces controlled Kiev, the more fractious Ukraine could become. In general, eastern Ukraine is more oriented toward Russia: Its residents speak Russian, are Russian Orthodox and are loyal to the Moscow Patriarchy. Western Ukraine is oriented more toward Europe; its residents are Catholic or are loyal to the Kiev Patriarchy. These generalities belie a much more complex situation, of course. There are Moscow Orthodox members and Russian speakers in the west and Catholics and Kiev Orthodox in the east. Nevertheless, the tension between the regions is real, and heavy pro-EU pressure could split the country. If that were to happen, the bloc would find itself operating in chaos, but then the European Union did not have the wherewithal to operate meaningfully in Ukraine in the first place. The pro-EU government would encounter conflict and paralysis. For the time being that would suit the Russians, as unlikely as such a scenario might be.
 
U.S. Perspectives
 
As in most matters, it is important to understand where the United States fits in, if at all. Washington strongly supported the Orange Revolution, creating a major rift with Russia. The current policy of avoiding unnecessary involvement in Eurasian conflicts would suggest that the United States would stay out of Ukraine. But Russian behavior in the Snowden affair has angered Washington and opened the possibility that the United States might be happy to create some problems for Moscow ahead of the Sochi Olympics. The U.S. government may not be supporting nongovernmental organizations as much as its counterparts in Europe are, but it is still involved somewhat. In fact, Washington may even have enjoyed putting Russia on the defensive after having been put on the defensive by Russia in recent months.
 
In any case, the stakes are high in Ukraine. The Russians are involved in a game they cannot afford to lose. There are several ways for them to win it. They only need to make the EU opening untenable for the Ukrainians, something Ukraine's economic and social conditions facilitate. The Europeans are not going to be surging into Ukraine anytime soon, and while Poland would prefer that Ukraine remain neutral, Warsaw does not necessarily need a pro-Western Ukraine. The United States is interested in Ukraine as an irritant to Russia but is unwilling to take serious risks.
 
A lot of countries have an interest in Ukraine, none more so than Russia. But for all the noise in Kiev and other cities, the outcome is unlikely to generate a definitive geopolitical shift in Ukraine. It does, however, provide an excellent example of how political unrest in a strategically critical country can affect the international system as a whole.
 
In most countries, the events in Kiev would not have generated global interest. When you are a country like Ukraine, even nominal instability generates not only interest but also pressure and even intervention from all directions. This has been the historical problem of Ukraine. It is a country in an important location, and the pressures on it tend to magnify any internal conflicts until they destabilize the country in excess of the significance of the internal issues. Germany and the United States may continue to pursue goals that will further irritate Russia, but as Stratfor indicated in our 2014 annual forecast, they will avoid actions that would risk harming Moscow's ties with Washington and Berlin. Russian influence in Ukraine is currently being limited by the proximity of the Olympics and the escalation in protests on the ground, but the fundamental geopolitical reality is that no country has a higher stake in Ukraine than Russia, nor a better ability to shape its fate.
 
Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

[jone]

It is a perspective.  But I find it detached and totally outdated.

And where does he get off that Poland would not want a pro-European Ukraine?  Some of his pronouncements are out in left field.

[Muzh]

Sadly, many of his forecasts have been right on the money.
 
Which shows you that the relics are still in power.

[jone]

I honestly believed, reading this, that I was reading something from the early 80's. 

"The Great Game". 

The US has no chestnuts in this fire.   And it shouldn't have any, either.  (I can say these things because this is not the forum where everyone hates on the US.)  To see things from an ethnocentric perspective is simply wrong. 

[Muzh]

I honestly believed, reading this, that I was reading something from the early 80's. 

"The Great Game". 

The US has no chestnuts in this fire.   And it shouldn't have any, either.  (I can say these things because this is not the forum where everyone hates on the US.)  To see things from an ethnocentric perspective is simply wrong.

Now that you mention this, the other day I was at the Mercedes dealer with the wife because she had to bring the car for the 10K mile service. While waiting I grabbed an old issue of The New Republic (what else do you expect at a Mercedes dealership, The Nation?) and there was an article by a 29 yo Brit about how much he loves America and I found myself agreeing with a lot of stuff he was writing about. And NO, not the mundane garbage spewed by Faux News.
 
He mentioned how Europeans are quick to lamblast Americans about how dumb, uncivilised, ignorant, scum of the Earth we are when they gather at a party or social event. He relates during 9/11 the French paper Le Monde wrote in big bold letters "We Are Americans" but a few days later he started hearing mumblings along the lines that we deserved it, to a crescendo of pundits openly declaring it in the open at later times to whomever wanted to listen.
 
I've been one who actually dismiss that kind of talk from overseas as sour grapes. It is true that there are a bunch of ignorant people along our shores that when "dicovered" by the foreign press, it is embarassing. HOWEVER, if we are so dumb then why do we have the world's largest economy and world's largest army, and the world's largest canyon? I know why. It is a secret government plot luring the rest of the world into a false sense of security.
 
Joking aside, we may not have the longest history nor the longest bloodlines, but damn, we have the bestest historical document that people around the world try to emulate. I guess we are doing all right.
 
Now, if we could do away with the damn reality shows...

[tfcrew]

I noticed this on VJ [Ukraine US consulate visa interview in Kiev Jan 27]..

....appointment was at 7:45AM.  Very early, but recommended as she was the first interview.  The wait was a little unnerving due to the anti-American protesters that had covered the front of the Consulate with eggs the night before....  No phones or personal property allowed, only documents.  The process of the interview took 20 minutes total.  We did our research and made sure she had the proper documents and they were in order so no difficulties.

[lordtiberius]

I agree with Muzh.

The West and western diplomats have encouraged this revolution now the protestors are out there flapping and you want to give these diplomats a pass?

Some friend . . . .

The US has no chestnuts in this fire.   

Except that Russia is our biggest geopolitical opponent in the world and Ukraine is a flashpoint.

And it shouldn't have any, either.

Because standing up for peace and freedom is just too hard.

To see things from an ethnocentric perspective is simply wrong.

And who specifically is guilty of that?  And why should they feel guilty of that?

[lordtiberius]

  Mein Fuhrer?

I resent this insinuation.  You should apologize.  This is offensive, provocative and inflammatory speech that serves no purpose on this forum.  The forum owners expect we regulate ourselves (ie. using good judgment).  Apologize, rephrase and explain if you wish to engage me further