In a TV interview this past year President Putin admitted to Russia taking first shots/starting the conflict with Georgia. The Russian Army was given the green light after consultations with then-President Dmitry Medvedev and both men agreed. He flew to the 2008 Olympics where he was seated next to George W. Bush and during a break in the contest, informed a shocked Bush of the events taking place.
Abhazia has been over time a historic piece of Georgia and as Georgia was the first Christian nation in the world while Abkhazia has been Muslim for centuries, this has been an uneasy marriage. Their early history at one time however had Abhazia as the capital and Tbilisi was a subject of Abhazia for awhile. The people of Abkhazia have been ruled by others, then been rulers, and then again ruled by others. They're an independent lot for sure.
Perhaps the only dictator who loved Abkhazia more than myself was Iosef Stalin. He had five dachas in Abkhazia (a noun we should all learn to speak correctly for no other reason that it is hard to say, yet so cool). His favourite, called the Mysra, is now my fav and if he ever tries to come back and reclaim this lovely dacha I will promptly sic Lavrenty Beria on his sorry arse. Beria was Abhazian, and Stalin Georgian, so it is no wonder they really didn't trust each other.
If you have never been to Abkhazia I'd recommend going but it isn't an easy or simple trip. Near
Stalin's my dacha is Lake Ritsa, probably the most peaceful and beautiful lake in all the world. Nestled in the mountains it is an unknown treasure and I've fallen in love with the place. It is considered a spiritual place and every summer Orthodox Christians from neighboring countries come to enjoy Lake Ritsa and the surroundings.
Mr. Putin has generated too much goodwill capital by releasing political political prisoners and modernizing Sochi to send the Red Army into Ukraine. That would represent 4 steps forward and 4,000 steps backward. Given the weakness of American leadership, President Putin sees a chance to propel Russia onto the world stage as a leader. Invading the state where Russia was given birth would not be a smart move, and Putin understands the difference between smart and not-so-smart moves.
Today Mr. Putin is in Brussels and the planned agenda had been to primarily discuss the Iranian nuclear programme and the fighting in Syria, but you can bet that Ukraine will be at the top of discussions. I do expect some sort of announcement regarding short term visa-free travel between Russians and Europeans to come as a result of these talks at some point.
The Olympics has consumed a lot of his time the past several weeks and this past Friday he met with his Security Council on Sochi security and also on the situation in Kyiv. On Tuesday he and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin had an extended meeting regarding Moscow readiness for the Olympics and security in Moscow. Moscow is a key to the Olympics as we are the main entry point for folk attending, servicing, participating in, and working in the Winter Games. Not only is Moscow the key transportation hub, but she is a historic capital representing a very real and desirable tourist destination in addition to the Games. Unfortunately Moscow has also been a terror target many times in the recent past.
President Putin and President Obama had a meeting by phone last Tuesday covering Olympic security and Syria. Despite what the Obama White House says in public about the small number of FBI and Homeland Security specialists in and around Sochi, there are plenty of American guys in plain clothes desperately trying to find a Dunkin Donuts in Sochi.
It is a long drive back to Moscow just for coffee and a donut. Mr. Putin has likely impressed upon them the need to leave Edward Snowden alone.
