What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[lordtiberius]

Russians attacked Ukrainian border guards.  All sorts of arms from Russia confiscated.  The real scum on this forum are OK with Putin arming criminals but are against honest people arming themselves.  But Putin and his minions can't break the spirit of Ukraine.

[Muzh]

Certainly true. Most people do not see it as they go about their ordinary lives. A new one happened this weekend when everyone was having their holiday. The IRS is now requiring all businesses no matter how small to get heath insurance policies for their employees or face $100 a day fines. That is $36,500 a year in fines per employee. It doesn't matter whether they can afford them it's just "do it." Frankly all the fuss and energy people expel here on this forum about Ukraine and Russia should be directed towards their own government screwing with their lives.

They should have had a one-payer system as it was originally intended and avoid all these Republican concessions that many are going to pay from now on. Of course, it is Obama's fault, and I say this sincerely. The man has proven to be mostly ineffective.

[Muzh]

Has the position I’ve taken changed?  I thought it was about the same as it was 3 months ago. 
1.       The US stay out of the conflict….still feel the same way
2.       The Russian troops were not going to invade…..they didn’t, and I don’t think they will
3.       Negotiate with both sides to give those Eastern Regions more autonomy….still support that
4.       Possible win-win (for most)…..still think that is possible
    ….Russia did take Crimea which I (alone on this website) felt at the time was the main military objective… Others called for US military involvement and felt all of Ukraine was going to be overrun.  Those posters have changed their tune, but I haven’t needed to change mine, as the events thus far have supported my earlier position, which was at the time was ridiculed as being naďve. From my perspective the outstanding issue will be if an internal conflict can be averted, if so and Ukraine stabilizes and moves toward the west (like I think it will)...then I think even the media is going to claim win-win.  If the new leader of Ukraine can't facilitate the stabilization of Eastern parts of Ukraine, then Ukraine loses....I think he will succeed.   There still are some variables, but overall it is shaping up close to what I thought it would 3 months ago regarding no Russian invasion. I don't think it was ever on the table that these events were going to be without some fighting and deaths, but it could have been 100 or 1000 times worse.   


Fathertime!

So admitting you are Van der Craats, have you been watching The World Wars on the History Channel? My God, the parallels!!! It brings chills up my spine.


Many well-intentioned people tried to avoid a war and in the end it got even worse than what they wanted to avoid because they could not just stop a madman.

Western countries tended to patronize and ignore the easterners. Russia was nothing like the threat of the Soviet Union, or so went the line in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and Washington. It was silly to pretend otherwise. The West thought the east Europeans – particularly the Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles and Czechs — were traumatized by their historical experience and prone to scaremongering.

That continued during much of the Putin era. Europe’s territorial defense as an issue was not just a non-subject; it was a career-killer. The conventional wisdom crystalized around the idea that Russia was not and would not be a threat. Anyone who thought differently in officialdom, especially in the foreign-policy, security, intelligence and military worlds, was wise to keep silent. Even as Russia became steadily more authoritarian and hostile, the West doubled down on its Russia policy. Even as Vladimir Putin adopted a more confrontational stance, NATO and the EU insisted that all was well and the answer to Russian snarls and sneers was yet more dialogue and integration, not confrontation or deterrence.[/size]

Does that sound familiar? In the end the west will be caught saying: Why, Oh Why We Didn't Listen To The Eastern Europeans?

[Gator]

So admitting you are Van der Craats, have you been watching The World Wars on the History Channel? My God, the parallels!!! It brings chills up my spine.......... In the end the west will be caught saying: Why, Oh Why We Didn't Listen To The Eastern Europeans?

I have been busy yet caught a couple of History Channel episodes.  deja vu in different ways.   

Hitler did not start with plans for conquering Europe; he simply sought compensation for the excessive reparations forced upon Germany by the European allies.   Putin wants to correct for the massive giveaways done when the CCCP collapsed. 

Another key similarity is the weak response by the European countries.   Hitler and Putin both took bold initial steps knowing that the Europeans would complain diplomatically yet do nothing.  Europeans do not want to upset Putin and prefer to keep it "business as usual."    Manny echoed this exact sentiment as follows: 

Not really. Only America. Most of Europe has no issues with Russia.

The Europeans are taking the weak, dovish position yet it is the Europeans who live next to Putin and will be most affected by Putin's aggressive actions.   The French are building modern aircraft carriers for Russia, etc.  I still contend that the US should let Europe take the lead.  If EU wants to loan Ukraine money, let them go ahead.  If Europeans can tolerate higher prices for Russian gas, let them give Putin carte blanche. 

The world is interconnected, yet Americans are several thousand miles away and rapidly becoming energy independent.  This should not become America's problem simply because Europe is weak. 

[lordtiberius]

Gator compared Putin with Hitler and yesteryear's Eurotrash with this year's crop as appeasors.  Do not the Russian people bear the same responsibility as the Germans for Hitler? They do.

Russia is behind the instability in Syria, Iran and surprise! Ukraine.  Today Russian and Chechen Spetsnaz are among the Separatist war dead (win win).  The US has a security guarantee by the Budapest Memorandum.  Thus we are involved.  John McCain said America is not weak, America is unreliable.  We will be unreliable as long as the donkeys stink up 1600 Penn.

[fathertime]

So admitting you are Van der Craats, have you been watching The World Wars on the History Channel? My God, the parallels!!! It brings chills up my spine.


Many well-intentioned people tried to avoid a war and in the end it got even worse than what they wanted to avoid because they could not just stop a madman.


Does that sound familiar? In the end the west will be caught saying: Why, Oh Why We Didn't Listen To The Eastern Europeans?

Although I see why you have the viewpoint that you do, I don't see it that way. 


I read the article you linked, but I have not been watching history channel so apparently I’ve been missing a good series.   I did not believe those posters that were exclaiming with certainty that Putin was going deeper into Ukraine, Moldavia etc etc…It didn’t add up to me, and still doesn’t.  I still believe that Russia invading Crimea was more of a defensive move than offensive.   The USA did not care to intervene, a few relatively meaningless sanctions has been our response, so we can claim we did something.  That is for the best because I believe had we attempted to intervene in a real way Russia would have upped the ante and gone ahead with an invasion. To this point, it appears to me that Russia has an acceptance or even possibly tacit approval (from Europe and the USA) for what they have done in Crimea.   

Of course I could be wrong, all it would take is for Russia to invade the rest of Ukraine or another border nation sometime soon, but I don’t see that happening.  Although quite a few people here believe Putin is behaving like Hitler did, I don’t see it that way.  I don’t believe there will be a forcible rebuilding of the Soviet Union.    Whether it be by design or an unintentionally byproduct, I continue to hold that both countries are going to WIN.  Russia took the crucial land they think they need for security and eternal access to their ports, in part and because of that; Ukraine will be freer to change their allies/living conditions/system of govt. I think in the aftermath of the Russia/Ukraine Putin/ Poroshenko meetings there will be progress and it will build from there, without US interference.  People don’t have to like/agree with this perspective, but this is a board of many viewpoints, and giving a take on the situation is what you are going to get if you choose to read. [size=78%] [/size]



Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

Oh the win wins keeping coming like topped off port-a-pottys in path of a hurricane.

[fathertime]

Oh the win wins keeping coming like topped off port-a-pottys in path of a hurricane.

Attempting to grandstand is your version of making a convincing counter argument.  Wow very compelling, but I think you failed in both departments, perhaps someone more convincing will chime in! Haha!


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

Argue with you? Wrong again dummy.  I stopped arguing with you in December when you couldn't answer all the inconsistencies in your own choose your own facts foreign policy.  I am making fun of you and outlining your hypocrisy and hubris in order to further alienate you - you moral pervert.   We are talking about people dying, where's you talk about hypothetical deaths like the bogus jobs created and saved crap Obama peddled.  LFU, Natural, and GQDouche though they won't leave, hate the West.  You can understand and appreciate their "logic" even as they stack the bodies.  They answer direct questions and when they can't they retreat into name calling.  You, you obtuse twit, drone on about how we are or aren't involved where as this 21st century Tony Soprano in Hitler's clothes is aactually killing people.  You ignore evidence and accuse others what you yourself are doing.  People HATE me on this forum but I am more popular than you are not because of my position on Putin, but because unlike you am not a complete bastard. 

And since we both are being completely honest, I might be the forum's lard ass.  But I have a full head of natural hair and I am young looking and better looking. So kiss your Putin loving wife with that anti-American mouth of yours Goofy.

[fathertime]

Argue with you? Wrong again dummy.  I stopped arguing with you in December when you couldn't answer all the inconsistencies in your own choose your own facts foreign policy.  I am making fun of you and outlining your hypocrisy and hubris in order to further alienate you - you moral pervert.   We are talking about people dying, where's you talk about hypothetical deaths like the bogus jobs created and saved crap Obama peddled.  LFU, Natural, and GQDouche though they won't leave, hate the West.  You can understand and appreciate their "logic" even as they stack the bodies.  They answer direct questions and when they can't they retreat into name calling.  You, you obtuse twit, drone on about how we are or aren't involved where as this 21st century Tony Soprano in Hitler's clothes is aactually killing people.  You ignore evidence and accuse others what you yourself are doing.  People HATE me on this forum but I am more popular than you are not because of my position on Putin, but because unlike you am not a complete bastard. 

And since we both are being completely honest, I might be the forum's lard ass.  But I have a full head of natural hair and I am young looking and better looking. So kiss your Putin loving wife with that anti-American mouth of yours Goofy.

Very convincing and informative, the name calling is a little humorous.   Hahaha.   BTW…it appears you got so upset with my viewpoint that you are even bringing my harmless wife into it!    Your efforts to stifle a different point of view will continue to fail.  I’m glad that the USA did not get involved to the extent you wanted.  I’m glad the killing has been minimized thus far. If you had your way, there would be mass graves full of Russians, ‘traitor’ Ukriainians, and young Americans.  Perhaps you could regale all of us with more of your deepest thoughts. 
 
It is interesting how some react to a point of view they don’t agree with. Thankfully LT' only represents himself, and he does it so well. 


Fathertime! 

[southernX]

FT

given the commitments america &others made to ukraine with the budapest memorandum, the very wise and direct prudent action would have been for the UN to offer /place peacekeeprs into ukraine directly after the events on maidan 19-22nd of feb ,

this single action would have probably stopped putins action in crimea & s/east ukraien in its tracks

with the very high resulting probability of no major conflicts or deaths like we have seen to date

putin would not have taken on the UN , & with the UN involvement it would be hard to make use of his propoganda arguments he has used about ukraine to justify his actions

the above is not war mongering imho , it is a simple direct action designed to confront all partys and stop the escalation of events until ukraine  could hold an election

SX

[Anotherkiwi]

FT

given the commitments america &others made to ukraine with the budapest memorandum, the very wise and direct prudent action would have been for the UN to offer /place peacekeeprs into ukraine directly after the events on maidan 19-22nd of feb ,

this single action would have probably stopped putins action in crimea & s/east ukraien in its tracks

with the very high resulting probability of no major conflicts or deaths like we have seen to date

putin would not have taken on the UN , & with the UN involvement it would be hard to make use of his propoganda arguments he has used about ukraine to justify his actions

the above is not war mongering imho , it is a simple direct action designed to confront all partys and stop the escalation of events until ukraine  could hold an election

SX

Sorry, SX, but this sounds like a sensible idea - so it had absolutely no chance of succeeding! 

[LiveFromUkraine]

People HATE me on this forum but I am more popular than you are not because of my position on Putin, but because unlike you am not a complete bastard. 

And since we both are being completely honest, I might be the forum's lard ass.  But I have a full head of natural hair and I am young looking and better looking. So kiss your Putin loving wife with that anti-American mouth of yours Goofy.

Jesus, I hope you are not allowed around any guns.  We had enough loonies shooting up people here.  You need therapy dude.  Seriously, get some help man.  You have taken GQ's MOB definition to a whole new level.

[lordtiberius]

Father time and his imaginary dead people seeking that elusive win win.

[fathertime]

FT

given the commitments america &others made to ukraine with the budapest memorandum, the very wise and direct prudent action would have been for the UN to offer /place peacekeeprs into ukraine directly after the events on maidan 19-22nd of feb ,

this single action would have probably stopped putins action in crimea & s/east ukraien in its tracks

with the very high resulting probability of no major conflicts or deaths like we have seen to date

putin would not have taken on the UN , & with the UN involvement it would be hard to make use of his propoganda arguments he has used about ukraine to justify his actions

the above is not war mongering imho , it is a simple direct action designed to confront all partys and stop the escalation of events until ukraine  could hold an election

SX

Hey SX,
When the chips were down it didn't appear American or European leaders thought the Budapest Memorandum was very important or questioned what their role was in enforcing it.  Whether the idea you proposed would have made things better or not is hard to say for sure.  It would have created a whole different set of variables, but it is interesting to think of what could have been done differently by all the different countries involved. 


Fathertime! 

[AkMike]

If Ukraine could afford to do it, They'd build a nuclear bomb or four just to officially cancel out that Budapest agreement that wasn't worth a pile of dog shait.

 I doubt that Russia would have done any of this if UA were still strong enough to retaliate. They jumped in as soon as they knew that UA was weak form Yanku stealing the country blind then skipping out with his gang of thieves to Putinland.

[GQBlues]

LOL.

The US, Political. The EU, Economics. Gas deals, Revolution. Crisis, Deaths.

It really is that simple.

[lordtiberius]

Many materials Putin needs for his nuke arsenal are in Ukraine. 

[southernX]

link below is agood read ,

still no win / win  for  the residents  though

http://inforesist.org/slavyansk-resident-euphoria-wow-our-guys-are-in-town-has-already-gone/?lang=en

SX

[deccie]

   The French are building modern aircraft carriers for Russia, etc.

Incorrect. The French are building Russia Amphibious warfare vessels. "Mistral" class.  Slightly different to the American "Wasp" class but similar in nature.

[SANDRO43]

Many materials Putin needs for his nuke arsenal are in Ukraine.

So you think Putin needs Ukraine's uranium resources to expand Russia's nuclear arsenal ?

Russia: Approximately 1,512 strategic warheads deployed on 498 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers. The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia has another 1,000 nondeployed strategic warheads and approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads. Additional thousands are awaiting dismantlement.

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

He seems to have enough HW already .

Anyway, Ukraine's mines are estimated to have produced less than 960 tons in 2012, a comparatively modest amount compared with Russia's 2,872 tons and the production of not-unfriendly states like Kazakhstan (21,317 tons, 36.5% of world supply from mines) and Uzbekistan (2,400 tons) - see http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Mining-of-Uranium/World-Uranium-Mining-Production/.

Unless you think that coal is fundamental for nuclear weapons .

[lordtiberius]

80% of Putin's nukes come from Ukraine.http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/putin-eyes-ukrainian-arms-prize-as-troops-build-up-along-border.html

[SANDRO43]

80% of Putin's nukes come from Ukraine.http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/putin-eyes-ukrainian-arms-prize-as-troops-build-up-along-border.html

The only mention I can find of nuclear weapons is:

Nuclear Warheads
As much as 80 percent of Russia’s nuclear warheads are loaded in missiles designed or manufactured in Ukraine and originate from the former Soviet Union, according to Wojciech Luczak, the editor in chief of Polish magazine Raport.

Since the collapse of the URSS is more than 20 years old, I think it unlikely that during all this time Russia would have been dependent on Ukraine's design & manufacturing technology - technology that appears somewhat outdated since 'investments' in that country have long been syphoned off to 'other', more lucrative areas - and I doubt that a Polish magazine's editor may be much 'in the know' about Russian strategic-arms policies .

[cc3]

The French are delivering offensive war machines to the fascistically aggressive Russian government. They are aiding and abetting Putin in his imperialistic actions. Thus, the French are now enemies of the west and should be expelled from NATO. What have the French ever done for the western alliance since the end of WW II?

[krimster2]

GazProm has an American office in Houston, Texas that sends home to Moscow a couple of billion every year in profits without paying any US taxes, easily providing enough money to pay for these ships, what about that?
what about the European countries whose financial institutions bankrolled the construction of the North Stream and South Stream gas pipelines that will bypass Ukraine, what about that?
I could go on, but someone famous once said, "let he who is without sin, cast the first stone" and then he said, "Damn it Mom!"