Ukraine-The Future

[Boethius]

No, I don't think they are intertwined.

[fathertime]

No, I don't think they are intertwined.

I do.


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

You are wrong!  Not the first time, nor the last.

[fathertime]

You are wrong!  Not the first time, nor the last.

No, I think you are wrong to think that for Russia, military security isn't/won't be important to their economics...ditto for the USA. 


Fathertime! 

[Steamer]

Steamer,

I had never acknowledged what an appropriate user name you have.  There you are, steaming along.  Whether that is good or bad, I'm not sure.

These are just my opinions based on my experiences and observations. I've always admired Russia for not allowing itself to be 'bought' by the west.

You say money is the root of all evil?  Well, I would like to amend that for you.  Money, concentrated in the hands of a few, is the dominating factor in leading to belligerence and war.

Let me amend that again. 'Economics' is the basis for most wars.

It is not the United State's responsibility to play cop.

But play world cop we will because it's our duty to show this ignorant world how to live their lives the 'correct' way, 'our' way. Is this what you want to tell me?


And before the backseat patriots tell me to leave the country let me remind them that I'm an American and I have a RIGHT to criticize my government.

[fathertime]

And before the backseat patriots tell me to leave the country let me remind them that I'm an American and I have a RIGHT to criticize my government.

 


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

No, I think you are wrong to think that for Russia, military security isn't/won't be important to their economics...ditto for the USA. 


Fathertime!

I meant it wasn't important vis a vis Ukraine.

[JayH]

Amongst all the crisis news the Ukrainian government is still faces with rebuilding the economy. This today is a positive piece that points to new directions for the economy.
I can see immediate possibilities for Ukraine in agriculture--the sanctions should prevent Russian wheat from being imported into the US-- so the wheat has to come from somewhere--why not Ukraine?


Expanding presence on EU market essential to further growth of Ukraine’s key agricultural sector

Ukraine is unlikely to resume economic growth soon, mostly due to ongoing Russia’s war in the eastern Donbas. However, its agriculture industry, which generated 10 percent of the 2014 gross domestic product that could be as little as $100 billion, is expected to continue growing.
The European Union is Ukraine’s leading agricultural trading partner. In 2014 some 30 percent of Ukraine’s agriculture exports went to the EU, generating almost $5 billion. The Association and Free Trade Agreement that Ukraine signed with the EU in 2014 is expected to boost the trade if Ukraine fulfills all the requirements.

“Ukrainian companies have to modernize production systems to increase the quality of goods yet more,” Vladyslava Rutytska, deputy minister of agriculture policy on European integration said at the 2015 Food and Agriculture Export forum which brought together representatives of Ukraine’s government, businesses and international lenders in Kyiv on Feb. 12.

“We understand that it’s not an easy goal but the Ministry of Agriculture policy is making big efforts to help local companies enter the European markets,” she said.

[JayH]

Another background piece of human stories.

Way Station for War
Quote
"This was Dmytro’s fifth trip to the front line to deliver supplies, and he barely made it to his destination, the temporary base of the 25th Battalion. “I don’t want to live in Russia,” he told me. “I’m 46 years old, I grew up in the Soviet Union, I know what it’s like. I didn’t intend to volunteer, because I fully understood that as soon as I would start providing logistical supplies as a volunteer, I wouldn’t have time for my business or my family. That’s exactly what happened.” His 8-year-old daughter gave him some 2,000 hryvnia ($75), her birthday earnings, to buy more supplies. “Putin has made a really big mistake, because our kids are completely different,” Dmytro said. “What we’re doing at the moment, it’s for them. When, at a birthday party for 8-year-olds, suddenly a child gets up on the sofa, puts her hand on her heart and starts singing the Ukrainian national anthem and asks the adults to do the same, it’s a completely different world. Even the evacuation from Debaltseve showed that ‘the Russian World’” — Putin’s ethnically charged term for Moscow’s self-defined sphere of interest — “is something the Donbass doesn’t want.”

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/12/

[BillyB]

But play world cop we will because it's our duty to show this ignorant world how to live their lives the 'correct' way, 'our' way.

Unfortunately very few nations have the balls to enforce international law. America has big guns and is trusted by most nations to do the enforcement.


You're right, America shouldn't tell other nations how to live their lives but when their actions affect the lives of others violating international law, somebody has to step in.


Obama hit the reset button with Russia in hopes they would be friend. He helped earn them business contracts around the world. American tax dollars bought billions of dollars worth of Russian arms to supply the nations we're rebuilding. No doubt Putin got rich off American dollars and Obama. The average Russian seen little benefit.


4 years into Obama's presidency, Mitt Romney said during a presidential debate that Russia's our greatest advisory. He has access to the same intelligence Obama didn't trust. Russia's activities around the world was harmful to America and world peace. Russia had a FU attitude to America. There's a Russian World, there's an American World, There's a Steamer's World and a BillyB's World. If someone had a FU, FU, and FU attitude towards Steamer's World and their actions are harmful to your existence, you have the right to call police. Ukraine has the right to call America. Whether or not America helps depends on Obama. Our Congress approved the funds and weapons. It's up to Obama to act.

[JayH]

This is a key point being made here.Putin's and Russian attitudes--they are fixed in an earlier time and not moved.
They are ill -equipped to comprehend the rising desire for a democracy in Ukraine.For Ukraine-it highlights what the battle with russia is really about--ie Russia wants control of Ukraine.


In the face of Russian history, EU makes a wavering ally for Ukraine

Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose country was invaded by Russia in 2008, revealed to an audience of Ukrainians what Vladimir Putin thought of their nation.

"I had 36 meetings with Putin," Saakashvili said in a visit to the Ukrainian city of Lviv in August, five months after the annexation of Crimea. "At almost each one he repeated that Ukraine is not a real state but Russian territory. He will go as far as he is allowed."

As a cease-fire emerges in Ukraine that gives Putin a lot of what he wants, the comments are a reminder of how the country remains trapped between the weight of Russian history and the force of European economics. In this squeeze, Putin's narrative backed by Cold War memories is coupled with leaders unwilling to blow up ties with a major trading partner and energy supplier."
AND MORE-Quoting

"The EU doesn't want the war, they are afraid of it," said Emzar Jgerenaia, a professor at Ilia University in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital. "The Georgian example wasn't a large enough lesson for the world."


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-wp-blm-news-bc-ukraine-putin13-20150213-story.html#page=1

[jone]

These are just my opinions based.  Let me amend that again. 'Economics' is the basis for most wars.  But play world cop we will because it's our duty to show this ignorant world how to live their lives the 'correct' way, 'our' way. Is this what you want to tell me?  And before the backseat patriots tell me to leave the country let me remind them that I'm an American and I have a RIGHT to criticize my government.

Steamer,

I would be the first to defend your right to criticize your government. 

But you underestimate me.  I am one who does not believe in the Ugly American.    Instead, I would hope our country can be more circumspect and that is why, until this time, I have advocated for non-intervention in Ukraine by the US.  But, I believe that Russia will immediately go back on its word and that there have to be consequences for that abrogation of an accord signed only a week ago.  I would hope that Europe would step up, but don't believe that any European countries have the leadership right now to move forward.

[Steamer]

Steamer,

I would be the first to defend your right to criticize your government. 

But you underestimate me.  I am one who does not believe in the Ugly American.    Instead, I would hope our country can be more circumspect and that is why, until this time, I have advocated for non-intervention in Ukraine by the US.  But, I believe that Russia will immediately go back on its word and that there have to be consequences for that abrogation of an accord signed only a week ago.  I would hope that Europe would step up, but don't believe that any European countries have the leadership right now to move forward.

Understood.

[Anotherkiwi]

Yet another piece which pretty much forecasts the disintegration of the latest peace agreement.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/12/ukraine-peace-deal-looks-fragile-in-the-extreme

An extract which I think sums up the whole situation in a nutshell:

Vladimir Putin was there, too, of course, doing his sulky schoolboy act. Russia’s president is like the kid at the back of the class throwing paper pellets and wishing he was somewhere else. In group photos, he looks like a wine waiter included by mistake.

Problem here is that this particular wine waiter has poisoned the entire output of the winery, and shouldn't have been there because, as he has said so many times, "Russia is not involved - there are no Russian troops in Ukraine."

[lordtiberius]

Putin's orcs have surrounded pockets of resistance inside the Debaltsevo salient and the Russians are annihilating these brave men while Merkel and Obama do nothing.

Oil is above $ 50.

[lordtiberius]

Police reform in Ukraine
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-05/ukraine-seeks-foreign-help-on-police-reform

[JayH]

Some time ago there was discussion about how Ukraine might save it's economy-- I made the observation that it could create a war led economic revival. In the most basic sense it is directly employing people( soldiers) and the back up support they require put's money into the economy-- and most importantly spreads it around.
I also commented that I expected new developments from the armaments industry--hence this post today. While it is a small example--it is real enough. It also shows Ukraine is not sitting back waiting to be saved--but is actively trying to create the means to defend themselves.There is considerable technical expertise in Ukraine--historically working in co-operation with Russia-but with that avenue now closed the need to do all in Ukraine is paramount.
Todays very handy weapon---may it save Ukraine!

"Recently, Social network will enable us to discuss US anti-missile systems "Javelin" or will not. In this case, nobody cares that Ukraine has its established production than # ATGM "Stugna" destroy tanks and armored vehicles enemy guided by a laser beam at distances up to 5 kilometers and is equipped with a tandem warhead. Tandem is when the first charge punches active tank protection, and the second punch to bare after the first explosion destroys the armor and tank crew fighting machine itself and the cumulative jet. Does this wonderful anti-tank missile in Kyiv Design Bureau "Luch . " It is also important that the missiles to "Stugna" about four times cheaper than the US "Javelin", made ​​in Ukraine and do not have any component parts from Russia. Yes, "Jawelin" has several advantages over our "Stugna" - thanks for worldwide technological superiority of the Americans. But "Stugna" is a bird in the hands of our Ukrainian and "Javelin" - it Juravel in the American sky. It is important that "Stugna" produced en masse and quickly enter the army to replace the old Soviet complexes "Fagot" , wire-guided, much of which is simply lost its fighting capacity after 30 -35 years of storage. Imagine that the defenders of Mariupol is 50 complexes "Stugna" and 500 missiles for them. Yes and no one ever capture Mariupol, because all enemy equipment - tanks, armored personnel carriers, trucks with manpower will be destroyed at a distance, accurately and on time. And drunk Chechens, Yakuts and other "Slavs" very quickly lose the desire to advance in the name of saving the "Russian world". In the photo Ukrainian antitank system "Stugna "production Kiev CB" Ray. " P. C. I was wondering why our anti-missile system is rather strange name - "Stugna?" My guess was correct. In the area of the river Stugna flowing in the southwestern part of the Kiev region since Soviet times was located dacha cooperative CB "Ray." Many thousands of hours while resting on 6 acres on the banks of the river Stugna Ukrainian designers spent ATGM. That's something like that and name for the domestic tank destroyer was born."

[lordtiberius]

I reject respectfully the premise you can war or tax yourself into prosperity.  Economies prosper when banks lend credit to productive people (entrepreneurs) and withhold credit from unproductive people (politicians).  Ukraine's fiscal policy currently hurts the economy by imposing controls against capital flight.  Why invest in Ukraine if I can't get my money out?

Ukraine has the same problem Russia has (no access to credit) except Ukraine is losing thus war.  No one will lend this government money if it continues to lose.

Without a military and fiscal commitment to Ukraine, she will fall to the savagery of Putinism.

[Boethius]

Another beautifully written article, and well translated, by Vitaly Portnikov.
 
http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2014-03-07-portnikov-en.html

[Boethius]

And finally, an interview Portnikov gave to the Polish press.  Very important, and I think he is right on a lot of points.
 
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/24/managing-putin-and-building-ukraine/

[JayH]

Not being glib-well not very at least!!  The links are very interesting--also the whole article posted today. I wrote previously how much is appearing now that gets to the crux of so many current issues in Ukraine.
What I do particularly observe--the writers not on the ground-- still don't get key issues of  the thought process of Ukrainians-whereas-this guy can see it clearly. I do not always agree with everything written 100%--but a remarkable amount I do agree with.
My recent interest in Ukraine came after the Orange revolution but was concurrent with the frustration of the failure for it to reform. I see it as important to Maidan-- as it raised hopes and awareness of future possibilities. When it became apparent that Maidan had traction it took hold quickly because of earlier raised expectations-- and the failure then. I am not giving that all the credit--but it needs to be noted .
As an aside-- the failure of those earlier hopes--is a major reason why reform really has a chance now.

[calmissile]

Another beautifully written article, and well translated, by Vitaly Portnikov.
 
http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2014-03-07-portnikov-en.html

Very nice article.  Thanks for posting.

[lordtiberius]

A never ending war will deplete Ukraine of its workforce and deprive Europe the moral leadership it lacks.  Putin has 2 years to be a bastard.  Then we must remove him or share Ukraine's fate.  But then again, why wait 2 years?

[Anotherkiwi]

Another beautifully written article, and well translated, by Vitaly Portnikov.
 
http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2014-03-07-portnikov-en.html

Excellent, but of course it was written a year ago.

And finally, an interview Portnikov gave to the Polish press.  Very important, and I think he is right on a lot of points.
 
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/24/managing-putin-and-building-ukraine/

It would be interesting to see the original article republished with the thoughts that he espouses in the interview.

[AkMike]

" and deprive Europe the moral leadership it lacks. 

  Huh???