Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[lordtiberius]

  To claim he doesn't have the money for this invasion is ludicrous, just look at what the Soviets accomplished in WWII when they were down on their luck.

All things are possible with American lend lease.  Ask Winston.

  Stalin sold Pacific lend lease to Japan. 

The question is whether or not he could hold large swaths of Ukrainian territory.

You think he can?  Why?

[AC]

You think he can?  Why?

No I don't but I think he could get a corridor at least to Crimea and hold it.  Lend lease is a moot point.  It's Ukraine's much smaller Army and tiny Air Force against Putin's much larger Army and Air Force.

[Muzh]

I wonder why you keep trying to direct your weak arguments at me?  Try directing them at poster Brass.  I'm not interested in your whining.  Maybe he will humor you.

Why would I do that? Brass is extremely eloquent and well informed. There are issues I agree with him and others I disagree. We discuss them and respect each others opinion, like true gentlemen.


Now, you on the other hand...

[Muzh]

Kinda sick of you referring to the President as a Nigger and getting a way with it.  It is not funny or clever.  Its offensive.

Oooo, you are calling the Prez using the N-word. I knew it, you racist.

[Muzh]

No one else refers to the President as a Nigger except you.  Why?

Another one. One heck of a job there Brownie.

[AC]

Oooo, you are calling the Prez using the N-word. I knew it, you racist.

 

[Muzh]

Now you are acting like a Nigger.

LMFAO


It seems I opened the floodgates.


C'mon guys, let it all out. 

[AC]

Why would I do that? Brass is extremely eloquent and well informed. There are issues I agree with him and others I disagree. We discuss them and respect each others opinion, like true gentlemen.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=4594.msg388065#msg388065

[Muzh]

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=4594.msg388065#msg388065

??

[Brasscasing]

It's entertaining and also enlightening to read both Billy B's and Brasscasings posts on this subject.  Brass do you really think that NATO could (or would is probably a better question) stop Mr. Putin if he did an all out invasion of Ukraine and headed towards Moldova?  Obviously he could (and would) have troops break-out from the Crimea as well.  Any Ukrainian troops and armor in between would likely be annihilated.  I am not trying to be pessimistic, just facing facts.  I believe he could quickly have his corridor from where he is (E. Ukraine) all the way to Transnistra.  I believe he has already put Nuclear weapons in Sevastopol and would warn the West to mind their own "sphere of influence".  Remember an all out invasion is going to include air superiority and unless the West wants to start WWIII he would quickly have it over Ukraine's air force.

There is nothing in Article 5 which states that NATO countries must come to the aid of Ukraine and Obama certainly does not have the backbone to do it; neither do any European countries I know of want to take the risk in standing up to him within Ukraine.

I think if he is going to do an all out invasion of Ukraine he will do it in the spring once it warms up.  Although the sanctions have hurt the Russian economy it's a long way until it shuts it down enough for Russians to rise up against him.  Right now with his popularity as high as it is he likely feels he must get his land bridge to Crimea to keep the ultra nationals who are his best supporters happy.  To claim he doesn't have the money for this invasion is ludicrous, just look at what the Soviets accomplished in WWII when they were down on their luck.

The question is whether or not he could hold large swaths of Ukrainian territory.  He may try to negotiate with the West after he gets his land bridge, but I am afraid it may be too late to stop this.  NATO forces over in Poland are too far away and the little help Ukraine has gotten is not sufficient.

Wow, there's a lot here, AC. You outline both possible strategic and long term initiatives and short term and tactical advantage and/or response.

Tactically Ukraine is exposed (as are the Baltics). Russia could more than likely take Kiev in an all out push.

Would the Russian population support an invasion if confronted with the reality? I don't know. Putin's dictatorship might not survive such a move. The propaganda would need to be ratcheted up considerably from what it is now and that in itself would be a warning.

The land bridge question; Unknown. Based on my limited experience in planning large scale invasions of neighboring countries (yeah, Idaho panhandle I've got my eye on you  ) Russia might be able to punch through initially but it's a difficult piece of geography. Once taken the Russians would have to maintain an elongated flank with their backs on the Sea of Azov. So if it were me planning the attempt I'd be more worried about the ability to hold it vice take it.

Russia's not ready for an all out knock down drag out at this point as evidenced by the scramble to reorganize, re equip, re arm to a modern army. Yes, they can do the local regional conquest thing but not take on NATO conventionally or strategically. Russia might make initial gains but would eventually lose them.

I've already made my opinion on the nuc question pretty clear. Nucs are not an option for Putin.

Brass

[AC]

The land bridge question; Unknown. Based on my limited experience in planning large scale invasions of neighboring countries (yeah, Idaho panhandle I've got my eye on you  ) Russia might be able to punch through initially but it's a difficult piece of geography. Once taken the Russians would have to maintain an elongated flank with their backs on the Sea of Azov. So if it were me planning the attempt I'd be more worried about the ability to hold it vice take it.

Russia's not ready for an all out knock down drag out at this point as evidenced by the scramble to reorganize, re equip, re arm to a modern army. Yes, they can do the local regional conquest thing but not take on NATO conventionally or strategically. Russia might make initial gains but would eventually lose them.

I guess we will likely find out this spring as from what I've read that is when he will make his move for his land bridge or not.  With his Air Force supporting him from above I really don't see how he could be stopped; provided that he makes such a bold and risky move.  99% chance that NATO will not intervene IMO because it's within Ukraine.  Sure a lot of hot air out of the usual suspects but that's all.  Why could he not hold a land bridge to Ukraine?  He's going to go into overdrive diplomatically claiming he had no choice because Ukrainian fascists were starving the Crimean's. 

He won't actually use Nuclear weapons however he will continue to posture or threaten or imply that he would use them if the West at all interferes within his "sphere of influence" which he obviously believes to be Ukraine.  Some sort of quid pro quo about the Middle East or something else and with Obama as President he gets what he wants.  I really don't think that the West is ready to start WWIII over this guys actions over there.

Sure in time the increased economic sanctions could lead to his downfall and destruction but as we've seen from past dictators like Gaddafi and others they can prolong their ultimate destiny for a good long while.

[Brasscasing]

You don't have to believe Billy's interpretation but it's the closest thing to reality that there is.

Upon being stationed where I was stationed all of us new guys were told by the CO of the overwhelming forces assembled just over the border and we were told point blank that if the enemy invaded they hoped we might last 72 to 96 hours until reinforcements from elsewhere (Fr. Bragg NC US mainland, etc) could arrive.

Clearly tactical Nukes might have been used to stop an invading enemy as they certainly were available.

Now reverse this scenario and it's Russia who has Nukes in both Sevastopol, Kaliningrad and likely their section of Moldova and they are telling the West to keep out.

I want you to read something. The following isn't fantasy, it's history. If you believe that you're a 'speed bump' then that's more than likely what you'll end up being. In my opinion this reference to being a 'speed bump' is more a state of mind than anything else. It's not a military strategy or government policy and it has no place in a soldiers way of thinking...

THE BATTLE OF KAP'YONG - 50TH ANNIVERSARY

..."Fifty years ago Hill 677 was a defensive position held by Canadian troops. The fighting that took place there was one of a multitude of battles across the Korean Peninsula in an attempt to stop a major offensive by the Chinese Communist Forces. In the years that followed, the hill became a focal point in reference to Canadian military operations during the Korean War. It was known as the Battle of Kap'yong.

On April 22 the CCF commenced their 1951 spring offensive, ramming heavily into United Nations Forces along the front line from the west coast to the Soyang River in the east. One of the main thrusts by the Chinese was toward the Kap'yong Valley, a direct route to Seoul. This sector was held by the U.S. 1 and IX Corps. Under heavy pressure the Americans withdrew, leaving two regiments of the 6th Republic of Korea Division to block the enemy drive. The South Korean troops were hit hard and forced to withdraw. Four days earlier the Calgary- based 2nd Battalion Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry (the first Canadian infantry unit to see action in Korea) had moved out of the line to a rest area near Chongchon-ni, 25 km south. On the morning of April 23 the Patricias were shocked to learn the front was collapsing. They were ordered to immediately establish defensive positions on Hill 677, a feature within corps reserve, 20 km behind the lines.

By mid-afternoon Lt.-Col. "Big Jim" Stone, commanding officer, 2nd Battalion PPCLI, had deployed his four rifle companies, battalion tactical headquarters and supporting arms on the hill. Able, Baker and Charlie Companies faced the main east-west curve of the valley. Dog Company occupied the left flank. Because of the terrain, interlocking fire support between companies was limited. The platoons in each company supported each other, with gaps between the companies fire-tasked by battalion machine guns and mortars as well as by a New Zealand artillery regiment. The 3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment, supported by a company of the U.S. 72nd Heavy Tank Battalion, held high ground five km across the valley to the east.

The men on 677 dug in. It was a tough task. The soil was rocky and this resulted in many slit trenches being only two to four feet deep. Rock parapets were built for extra protection. Potential enemy assault routes were trip-wired and booby-trapped with grenades and mortar bombs.

Capt. Owen R. Browne, officer commanding Able Company, later wrote in a regimental journal:

"It was then, about mid-afternoon (April 23), that the rumour of the collapsing front acquired a meaning. From my arrival until then both the main Kap'yong Valley and the subsidiary valley cutting across the front had been empty of people. Then, suddenly, down the road through the subsidiary valley came hordes of men, running, walking, interspersed with military vehicles — totally disorganized mobs. They were elements of the 6th ROK Division which were supposed to be ten miles forward engaging the Chinese. But they were not engaging the Chinese. They were fleeing! I was witnessing a rout. The valley was filled with men. Some left the road and fled over the forward edges of "A" Company positions. Some killed themselves on the various booby traps we had laid, and that component of my defensive layout became worthless . . . between 1530 hours and 1800 hours all of A" Coy speeded up its defence preparations and digging as it watched, helpless to intervene, while approximately 4000-5000 troops fled in disorganized panic across and through the forward edges of our positions. But we knew then that we were no longer 10-12 miles behind the line; we were the front line."

The evening was quiet, the sky clear, a moon rising. The Patricias watched and waited. Just after midnight the sky suddenly turned bright with illumination flares drifting over the Australian positions across the valley. Rifles, machine guns, mortars, and artillery simultaneously smashed the silence. The Chinese had struck. The first phase of the Battle of Kap'yong had begun. All during the night the RARs fought the enemy on the hill slopes and in their trenches. They regrouped and tightened their perimeter. At dawn April 24, the Chinese withdrew then attacked again. In the late afternoon, after battling wave after wave of Chinese assault troops for 16 hours, and running low on ammunition, the Australians were ordered to withdraw.

Now the only infantrymen left to stop the Chinese advance through the Kap'yong Valley were the Patricias on Hill 677. They were alone.

With the withdrawal of the RARs, Lt.-Col. Stone moved Baker Company to his right flank overlooking the abandoned, thatch-covered huts of Naech'on village and facing the former Australian positions. It proved to be a tactically-sound decision.

About ten o'clock that night enemy mortar bombs showered Baker Company and machine-gun tracer bullets pierced the darkness with fingers of light, indicating the enemy assault route. Amidst the cacophony of Chinese bugles, whistles and exploding mortar bombs, the enemy stormed Baker Company's forward platoon throwing grenades into the trenches as they advanced. The stutter of Chinese burp guns and the scream of flying shrapnel added to the din. The air hung heavy with the acrid smell of battle. The defenders fought fiercely, but overwhelmed by numbers, the platoon withdrew farther into the company perimeter and prepared for a counterattack which was ultimately and successfully executed.

While Baker Company was under fire a party of 100 Chinese attempted to probe tactical headquarters. The battalion’s 81 mm mortars combined with withering fire from .50 calibre and .30 calibre machine guns drove them off the hill.

Elements of the CCF attempted to ford the river below the Canadian positions. They were easy targets in the moonlight. Over 70 died and bloodied the waters of the Kap'yong.

The men of Baker Company held their positions while the Chinese kept coming, hundreds at a time. With fixed bayonets the Patricias desperately fought on through the night.

About 1 a.m. April 25, a Dog Company platoon was attacked from three sides by large numbers of enemy troops. Two Patricias manning a Vickers machine-gun where killed. Waves of Chinese spilled into the company area. It was hand-to-hand-fight-for-your-life combat. Dog Company was on the verge of being overrun. The company commander, Capt. Wally Mills, requested that artillery be fired on his own positions. The New Zealand gunners obliged. The defenders hugged the bottom of their trenches while artillery shells roared in overhead. The shells scoured everything above ground level, driving off the Chinese. But they returned. More artillery fire followed. 2300 rounds hammered Dog Company positions.

There were many acts of heroism that night. Pte. Ken Barwise single-handedly recaptured the Vickers machine gun lost to the enemy early in the firefight, then took down a number of the enemy advancing towards him. Pte. Wayne Mitchell, a Bren gunner, used the light machine-gun with devastating effect on the enemy. Despite being wounded twice, he fought on even though weak from loss of blood. He was eventually evacuated. L/Cpl. Smiley Douglas, attempted to throw a live grenade out of harm's way to save injury to men in his section. He wasn't quite quick enough. He lost a hand. Ken Campbell, a Dog Company section commander at the time, was severely wounded in a firefight with Chinese swarming his positions. First, three burp gun slugs hit him in the shoulder. He fell, then took two more in the back. One bullet lodged in the lining of his heart; two others collapsed a lung. He eventually recovered.

Before first light April 25, the CCF ceased their assault on Hill 677 and withdrew. The day dawned clear and quiet. The supply route to the rear was held by the enemy. The battalion was cut off from other UN troops and their reserve supply of ammunition and rations were depleted. An airdrop was requested. Six hours later, at 10:30 a.m., four U.S. C-119 "flying boxcars" lumbered over the PPCLI positions at 200 feet and jettisoned parachutes bearing supplies.

With supplies replenished, the battalion prepared for the resumption of fighting. However, the two regiments of the CCF — totalling 6,000 men — that had entered the Kap’yong Valley had been badly mauled by the Australians, Canadians and their supporting arms and they did not return to Hill 677. The Battle of Kap’yong was over. Supply lines were opened and UN Forces subsequently re-established its lines and pushed the CFF farther to the north. Seoul would not be threatened again.

The PPCLI casualties were amazingly light – 10 killed, 23 wounded – considering the viciousness of the fighting and the Chinese troops’ overwhelming numerical advantage. Post-battle military analysis and historian hindsight determined that the PPCLI success at Kap’yong was due to a number of factors. Many of the 2nd Battalion officers and NCOs were battle-experienced Second World War veterans. As a battalion they had trained hard in Canada as well as in Korea and had been blooded in action prior to Kap’yong. The men were in excellent physical condition, well-disciplined with good morale and, determined to maintain the traditions of their regiment that had won battle honours in the First and Second World Wars. The Chinese, although having numerical superiority, entered killing grounds of Hill 677 through valleys, re-entrants and other approaches which were inter-locked by machine gun, mortar and artillery fire tasks. Also, by the time the Chinese entered the Kap’yong Valley in their rush to recapture Seoul, they had outdistanced their supply lines. This, coupled with heavy casualties, no doubt reduced their will to continue fighting at that time.

The actions of 3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment, A Company 72nd U.S. Heavy Tank Battalion and, ultimately standing alone, 2nd Battalion Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry, prevented the Chinese Communist Forces from exploiting their breach of United Nations lines. These three units under UN Command were each awarded a United States Presidential Unit Citation.

The award reads in part: ". . . recognition of outstanding heroism and exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding services . . ."

The PPCLI is the only Canadian unit to ever receive this award."...

http://www.kvacanada.com/stories_rskap'yong.htm

The 2nd Bn PPCLI wear the blue bar on their uniforms to this day.

From the WW1 onwards Canadians and Australians  go into an operational theatre knowing that we're most likely going to be outmanned, outgunned and probably on the sharp end, happens all the time. At Kapyong the ratio was 15 to 1.

Ukraine's military has now joined that club as well.

Canadians or Australians have never to my knowledge presumed what we were doing was considered to be along the lines of a 'speed bump'. That's a seriously defeatist attitude in my book.

Brass

[lordtiberius]

No I don't but I think he could get a corridor at least to Crimea and hold it.  Lend lease is a moot point.  It's Ukraine's much smaller Army and tiny Air Force against Putin's much larger Army and Air Force.

Israel's much smaller Army and tiny Air Force against the Arab's much larger Army and Air Force. . . . history repeating?

[lordtiberius]

Oooo, you are calling the Prez using the N-word. I knew it, you racist.

I never called the President a Nigger.  I explained UT why.  You on the other hand . . .

[JayH]

I want you to read something. The following isn't fantasy, it's history. If you believe that you're a 'speed bump' then that's more than likely what you'll end up being. In my opinion this reference to being a 'speed bump' is more a state of mind than anything else. It's not a military strategy or government policy and it has no place in a soldiers way of thinking...

From the WW1 onwards Canadians and Australians  go into an operational theatre knowing that we're most likely going to be outmanned, outgunned and probably on the sharp end, happens all the time. At Kapyong the ratio was 15 to 1.

Ukraine's military has now joined that club as well.

Canadians or Australians have never to my knowledge presumed what we were doing was considered to be along the lines of a 'speed bump'. That's a seriously defeatist attitude in my book.

Brass

Nice post BC-- looking at numbers alone is misleading as BC points out.The Ukrainians have repeatedly shown real guts -- combined with improved technique and good morale ,plus they are  highly motivated who knows what is possible.None of that is to say that help in every way is not needed.
Re numbers-- in more recent times Australian forces in Iraq & Afghanistan have been caught outnumbered and have been successfull in various actions-- another theatre at another time  where an Australian force was heavily outnumbered--

Quote
Battle of Long Tan
Heavily outnumbered but supported by strong artillery fire, D Company held off a regimental assault before a relief force of cavalry and infantry fought their way through and forced the Viet Cong to withdraw. Eighteen Australians were killed and 24 wounded, while the Viet Cong lost at least 245 dead which were found over the days that followed. A decisive Australian victory, Long Tan proved a major local setback for the Viet Cong, indefinitely forestalling an imminent movement against Nui Dat and challenging their previous domination of Phuoc Tuy Province. Although there were other large-scale encounters in later years, 1 ATF was not fundamentally challenged again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Long_Tan

[BillyB]

If at some point in the future if the Russian forces reverted back to divisional command structures after spending years reforming/reorganizing their ground forces to the Brigade format I'd be surprised but anything's possible.

Brass, I don't know why you're determined to prove Russia has no divisions. They still have units assigned as divisions and the divisions they split up into brigades can easily be reorganized into divisions again in the event of major war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_%28military%29

The overall size of the 395,000-strong force was also reduced to the current 270,000, [/b] alongside reserve forces and capabilities designed on a similar basis to the US"...

The guy you're quoting seems to underestimate not only Russia's tank strength but troop strength too. Russia's active and inactive troop strength in the link below and a recent audit confirming how many troops are on Russia's payroll. It's a lot more than your man is claiming. If Russia can under claim the amount of nukes they own, they can do the same everywhere else.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel

http://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2013/10/31/766055/

Two divisions actually but who's counting.

A division can have 10,000-30,000 troops. One, two, or three divisions could be stationed in Korea depending how the military wants to classify it. When I said it could be one division based on number of troops, I wasn't wrong. Does it really matter what you want to call it? 30,000 troops is 30,000 troops.

I'm not aware of the state of American service personnel moral in Korea but it would seem placing 30,000 personnel in harm's way as a "speed bump" would be akin to a policy of gross criminal negligence by the U.S. government. Something I doubt would be institutionalized over seven or eight successive administrations. Sorry Billy but I'm not buying your interpretation of this at all.

Do you think AC's CO was lying to him? Do you think the troops I've spoke to were lying to me? Brass, have you ever been in the military? Do you understand what the odds are of 30,000 troops beating a force of 1,000,000,000 troops? Government's criminal negligence? Everybody who signs up for the military realizes they could be placed in harms way. If 30,000 American troops could stop a million man army, why does South Korea need one of the largest armies in the world consisting of their own people working for them? A little American force has got them covered. Below is the mission of American soldiers in South Korea. Nowhere does it say it is designed to dominate a fight with North Korea. One of their missions is to assist in evacuating citizens. In other words, assist in a retreat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_Korea

Russia's not ready for an all out knock down drag out at this point as evidenced by the scramble to reorganize, re equip, re arm to a modern army.

Who in Europe is better prepared than America for all out war? The facts are we know Europe has been closing it's weapons factories and America has been downsizing it's military the last few years while Russia's military has been growing and modernizing.  Maybe Putin isn't planning on using any of that equipment and increasing the size of his army? Maybe it's all to stroke his ego?

Yes, they can do the local regional conquest thing but not take on NATO conventionally or strategically. Russia might make initial gains but would eventually lose them.

I don't think Russia will win a world war either but until America's mainland army shows up in Europe, Russia can destroy the lives of a lot of people and economies of a lot of nations. There is no one nation in Europe that can take on Russia one on one. NATO is more disorganized and poorly led than you think. They couldn't do a good job against lowly Libya and don't meet commitments in other places of the world. Carefully read the article below. I don't know why you and LT are so intent on proving Russia is weak and they couldn't cause much damage and NATO is strong but I suspect Obama's main military advisor thinks more like you two than me. That is probably why Obama is proceeding with downsizing our military and reducing our role in Europe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/11/world/europe/11gates.html

Canadians or Australians have never to my knowledge presumed what we were doing was considered to be along the lines of a 'speed bump'. That's a seriously defeatist attitude in my book.

The current American forces in South Korea are there to deter North Korea and assist South Korea in the event of a full invasion. I can assure you the commanders of the American units in South Korea aren't telling their men to be heroes and beat North Korea by themselves in the event of an invasion. Their role isn't to beat North Korea on their own and it has nothing to do about defeatist attitude.

Israel's much smaller Army and tiny Air Force against the Arab's much larger Army and Air Force. . . . history repeating?

Pound for pound, Israel soldiers are some of the best in the world. Arab forces aren't even close to being as good as Russia's. Arab isn't Russia and Ukraine isn't Israel. The David vs Goliath story isn't going to work for Ukraine if Russia sends a full invasion. Ukraine needs help.


Go Seahawks

[JayH]

Ukraine needs help.

No one is denying that.
What BC is saying--(& others!!! ) --- is do not overestimate  Russia's capabilities-- and do not underestimate Ukraine's !!

[lordtiberius]

No one is disputing they don't need help.  All of us agree that need war material.  I even suggested where they could get it for real cheap - the Sierra Army Depot.  The managers there are guilty of stealing war material and selling it privately. 

My point is that maskirovka is an important part of Soviet their doctrine.  Call their bluff.  Unless their proxy states use Nukes, Oil prices are headed sub-40 and they cannot re-supply or pay forces already deployed worldwide.

[lordtiberius]

Pound for pound, Israel soldiers are some of the best in the world.

Not in 1948

Arab forces aren't even close to being as good as Russia's.

Truck loads of dead Russians and thousands of motherless parents would say otherwise.  I don't think Arab losses stand up to Russian loses in this war.

Arab isn't Russia and Ukraine isn't Israel.

You don't understand that Ukraine makes weapons too and can adapt Western technology with Soviet and Post-Soviet war material just as the Jews did.

The David vs Goliath story isn't going to work for Ukraine if Russia sends a full invasion.

Let's say you are right.  What happens if they send their 20 divisions and divide Ukraine like a cake?  What do you think the appetite for sanctions or even overt or covert action against Russia would be?    What happens if they send their 20 divisions and divide the Baltics like a cake?

Go Seahawks

ugh

[JayH]

My point is that maskirovka is an important part of Soviet their doctrine.  Call their bluff.  Unless their proxy states use Nukes, Oil prices are headed sub-40 and they cannot re-supply or pay forces already deployed worldwide.

Totally agree with calling the bluff--I have said that is a necessary part of putting Russia in it's place in all this.
Putin will go far past the point of common sense-- so namby pamby approach only encourages him that he can still get what he wants.That is also why the west needs to be very clear--only 105% of what is wanted is acceptable-- have the crisis now--or a much bigger one later.
Internally--Putin is closer everyday to his demise-time is working against him now-- he can only sustain the lies to the Russian people for so long and everyday more information is seeping through-- when enough start asking questions Putins Kremlin cohorts will remove him-one way or another.That will not solve the problem as such-- quite possible to get even crazier leader than Putin-- and that is why the west needs to be really firm in what it will accept.

Meanwhile-- the news Russia does not want just gets worse & worse--

What's behind the oil price rout

"In the meantime, prices will come down further. While there may be some daily ups and downs, a few analysts are tipping prices to fall as low as $US20."
http://www.theage.com.au/business/explainer-whats-behind-the-oil-price-rout-20150108-12jomm.html

[AC]

Brasscasing nowhere did I refer to my unit or the various military units in the country I was in as being "speedbumps" and neither did our Commander or any other officer.  We were just given a realistic and sobering assessment to keep us on our toes.  I'm sure the guys in Korea or wherever know the odds and they might joke about it when out drinking or whatever so no harm in that.  That's different then a defeatist attitude however we all have our own perceptions. 


I enjoy reading you and BillyB going back and forth hope you continue.   


The time for the West to give Ukraine the defensive weapons they need is closing fast.

[lordtiberius]

 

"speedbumps"

We heard the same thing from guys coming back from Korea.  The problem with this assumption that the enemy has the capability that he brags about is rather obvious and prevents the consideration of offensive operations in North Korea with the forces available should the opportunity present itself.

[bagalia]

I always thought about us as speed-bumps in Korea. My squadron did temporary times there in the 70s. They told us at the start that if there was a war between the North and South it would all be over in a few minutes with the 1st strike probably the victor. Not a matter of defeatist thought as much as realistically dead.

[lordtiberius]

That was the 70's with the Soviet Union and China behind them.  Certainly times have changed . . .

[BillyB]

I always thought about us as speed-bumps in Korea. My squadron did temporary times there in the 70s. They told us at the start that if there was a war between the North and South it would all be over in a few minutes with the 1st strike probably the victor. Not a matter of defeatist thought as much as realistically dead.

Thanks for your testimony. More veterans should come out and tell it like it is. Some people here have this funny idea that deployed American forces, no matter how small, will stop a full scale invasion.


Politicians can pick whatever names they want for various American military deployments. They can call a $500 million in military savings in Europe the "European reassurance initiative". The only thing Europe can be reassured is that America will be spending less for their security this year than we did last year. They can call the 30,000 troops in South Korea the "Hold the line against North Korea, In Your Face Kim Jong Un,  Lightning Fast Spearhead" although American troops are outnumbered 30-1. They can call the 600 troops Obama sent to Poland and the Baltics the "F U Putin Package, NATO is Truly United, Really It Is!" but some of us know small deployments of American troops won't dominate a fight in event of a full invasion until the mainland troops show up.

ugh

You'd enjoy life a lot better if you joined a winning team. Go Seahawks!

What BC is saying--(& others!!! ) --- is do not overestimate  Russia's capabilities-- and do not underestimate Ukraine's !!

The problem is you guys are underestimating Russia's capabilities and overestimating Ukraine's and NATO's. WE don't have to speculate anymore. WE have facts. Ukraine, with numerical superiority and on home turf, can't secure their nation against a few thousand rebels and Russian troops.


Our Secretary of Defense came out and publically humiliated our NATO allies by saying they aren't pulling their weight. Most NATO members do not and never did meet their obligations of spending 2% of their GDP on security. They figure someone else will come to their rescue in event their nation will be invaded. In Afghanistan and Libya, many NATO members failed to supply the NATO military units with munitions and funding. That's how much the politicians of member nations care about the military that's doing the dangerous work the politicians requested of them. If NATO was dysfunctional in those two campaigns with America doing the bulk of the work, how do you think they'd do under an invasion by Russia? NATO will be calling America's troops to get the job done.


Once you guys accept reality, then you can vote the proper people in and pressure them to spend more on security to preserve our and our friends lives.