Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[JayH]

Thanks for the replies CM and Jay .

Looks like i was being fed duff gen by the girls 

Yeah--that happens !!When close it is often hard to know precisely.
From today--

Military records recruits had been launched.


Military records or preparing for the fourth wave of mobilization was started. The formal agenda will come as soon as the Council poholosuye "for" presidential decree on partial mobilization, but now around military commissariat MoD expects various excesses and even arson attacks, referred to in the story TSN.19 30 .


While military offices at no excitement there cause for an interview and physical examination. Defense, primarily looking for healthy men and women, it is preferable to military specialty. Demand tankers, artillery, air defense experts, communications and repairers, deficiency of intelligence. Age from 25 to 60 years - residence does not matter.

The fourth wave has resulted in the Ukrainian army about 50 thousand soldiers. This number of people needed to equip all groups, to rotate and create a reserve. Among the male population and now only talk about mobilization.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/viyskovi-rozpovili-yak-bude-prohoditi-chetverta-hvilya-mobilizaciyi-402612.html

And Previous Story-

Update MAT will reserve for three waves of mobilization.

UNIAN Benches Armed Forces will add 200 thousand Ukrainian During the three waves of mobilization that will take place this year, the ranks of the Armed Forces plans to recruit 200 thousand Ukrainian. As deputy head of the GPU and the Military Prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoliy Matios.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/cogo-roku-do-armiyi-mobilizuyut-200-tisyach-ukrayinciv-401346.html

[AC]

In so far as whatever the operation was the advantage of numerical superiority would be a factor in launching an offensive.

It depends on the (Russian) military district's armored units. They might relocate units from other districts but my guess would be whatever that district's available resources are is what would be potentially deployed.

Brass

This video is of a huge train load of Russian Federation tanks which arrived in Crimea back in March, 2014.  As we previously discussed if Putin launches an offensive from the east to take Mariupol he will launch a simultaneous attack from Crimea for a classic encirclement attack.  Notice that the number of tanks in Crimea now is not disclosed.

[Muzh]

This video is of a huge train load of Russian Federation tanks which arrived in Crimea back in March, 2014.  As we previously discussed if Putin launches an offensive from the east to take Mariupol he will launch a simultaneous attack from Crimea for a classic encirclement attack.  Notice that the number of tanks in Crimea now is not disclosed.

Ever heard of  the Battle of Thermopylae?

[Brasscasing]

This video is of a huge train load of Russian Federation tanks which arrived in Crimea back in March, 2014.  As we previously discussed if Putin launches an offensive from the east to take Mariupol he will launch a simultaneous attack from Crimea for a classic encirclement attack.  Notice that the number of tanks in Crimea now is not disclosed.

From what we can see of the rail cars on the vid it's about 40 tanks or a Bn's worth .

Most are t-64's contrary to the vid headline except for the last two tanks (identifiable) seen at the end of the vid which is a/are t-72(s).

How do we know those are t-64's vice t-72s?

Road wheels...

t-64's have smaller road wheels than t-72's...



t-64 note the gap between the road wheels

Now t-72...



t-64...



t-72...



If you return to the video and view the tanks at the beginning of the video vs. the one tank at the end of the video you'll see the difference in the size of the road wheels.

Either way yes, a two pronged attack or encirclement type action is entirely possible. I'm sure the Ukraine military would have already taken that into account though and have/would prepare(d) accordingly.

Brass

[AC]

From what we can see of the rail cars on the vid it's about 40 tanks or a Bn's worth .

Most are t-64's contrary to the vid headline except for the last two tanks (identifiable) seen at the end of the vid which is a/are t-72(s).

How do we know those are t-64's vice t-72s?

Road wheels...

t-64's have smaller road wheels than t-72's...



t-64 note the gap between the road wheels

Now t-72...



t-64...



t-72...



If you return to the video and view the tanks at the beginning of the video vs. the one tank at the end of the video you'll see the difference in the size of the road wheels.

Either way yes, a two pronged attack or encirclement type action is entirely possible. I'm sure the Ukraine military would have already taken that into account though and have/would prepare(d) accordingly.

Brass

Thanks for pointing that out, you've got a better eye than I do.  I didn't even think to try to determine whether or not it was truthful about them being T72's.  You see, that RT Russian propaganda does work.   

I think that in order for Ukraine's military to be adequately prepared, they should have been given some javelins and a bunch of other stuff that they asked for.  Perhaps some of it has been secretly supplied, although I doubt if they have enough altogether. 

If Putin were to see that Ukraine had all the hardware in place, he would be less likely to attempt his land bridge because of the enormous loss of life on both sides, which would finally affect his popularity (I would certainly hope so at that point), as well as the enormous financial cost of trying to displace a properly equipped defending Army.

Putting any foreign boots (other than training specialists far removed from the theater of war) on the ground would be a huge mistake.  He would be able to tell his home audience "you see, the Americans (or NATO or whoever) have invaded our sphere of influence" and that would be his impetus to escalate into a full blown war.

Hopefully this is all speculation and Ukraine is able to get where they need to be defensively to force a stalemate.  Eventually if the sanctions are kept up perhaps Putin will pull out of E. Ukraine entirely and negotiate, since his economic woes will eventually affect his ability to stay in power.

[AC]

Ever heard of  the Battle of Thermopylae?

Yes (Hollywood version is "300").  It certainly does show that a small number of highly motivated soldiers on their home turf can inflict enormous damage against a larger more powerful invading Army. 

The problem here is that the Russian Federation has so many sympathizers amongst the Eastern and Crimean population who want to be under Russian "protection".

[BillyB]

I didn't even think to try to determine whether or not it was truthful about them being T72's.  You see, that RT Russian propaganda does work.   

RT was being truthful. Just have to watch the whole video to see the truth. At the 37 second mark of the video, a whole train of freshly painted and probably updated T-72's show up and passes a train full of T-64's that look like they came out of reserve.


There's no doubt in my mind there's shipments of many more different types of weaponry that arrived in Crimea. I don't think Putin has plans to back down.

[JayH]

RT was being truthful. Just have to watch the whole video to see the truth.

RT   & truth in the same sentence is oxymoron!


Can anyone be certain that footage was taken in Crimea?

btw--no one has denied the likelihood that Russia was pumping armaments into Crimea-or of the potential for attack from that direction

[lordtiberius]

If Russia can't supply its citizenry, what are the odds it can launch a combined arms invasion from Crimea?

[Brasscasing]

RT was being truthful. Just have to watch the whole video to see the truth. At the 37 second mark of the video, a whole train of freshly painted and probably updated T-72's show up and passes a train full of T-64's that look like they came out of reserve.


There's no doubt in my mind there's shipments of many more different types of weaponry that arrived in Crimea. I don't think Putin has plans to back down.

I don't know about that, Billy. That's why I posted the first two tanks are identifiable but from that point on even at 40 seconds right before the cut it gets too hazy to accurately identify the model. The third tank based on it's reactive armor configuration on the turret could also be t-72 but anything after that is unidentifiable.

I noted when I first viewed the vid that H2200 always seemed to be front and centre but didn't think much of it at the time. Looking closer at the vid the tanks in the background while buddy comrade general's talking; the first two possibly the third are t-72s but they keep cutting to t-64s during most of the vid so whether or not it's a whole train load of t-72s is open to debate.

What we do know is, other than the two or three tanks we can identify, the vid is representing t-64s as t-72s and that at least isn't truthful.

Brass

[lordtiberius]

RT was being truthful.

Why would you say something like that?

I honestly think your pro-Ukraine bona fides need verification.

[BillyB]

Looking closer at the vid the tanks in the background while buddy comrade general's talking; the first two possibly the third are t-72s but they keep cutting to t-64s during most of the vid so whether or not it's a whole train load of t-72s is open to debate.

The machine gun mounts on top of the turrets between both tanks are clearly different but are consistent on both trains. You don't have to identify the whole tank but the mounts are identifiable There are lots of photographers behind comrade general. It would be silly for RT and the Russian military to lie about outdated tanks when it's in public view and on camera. In the whole scheme of things, Putin is putting in a serious home security system in Crimea. He investing Russia deeper into this crisis.

[lordtiberius]

Maskirovka

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

Heroes on the front in Eastern Ukraine:

One cannot think about Ukraine without giving due to her heroes. Some are professional soldiers, but many are volunteers who have hastily trained and then traveled to the Eastern front, even when ill-equipped. They are motivated by a deep desire to serve their country. Thanks to Western nations like Canada, Italy and Poland who have begun to help modernize and equip these heroes.

These are some of the faces of the men and women who have taken up arms in the just cause of defending their Ukrainian homeland, even against a much larger and deadly enemy. Sadly, both Ukraine and Russia were birthed in Ukraine. Close brothers for generations; those brotherly ties are fading fast.

This installment of "heroes" is dedicated to the brave souls who lost their lives in fighting yesterday: Olga Shudikina, Inna Kornilova, Larisa Starchak, Roman Kolomoets, Tetyana Morgasuk, Oleksandr Morgasuk, Vladislav Polyakov, Maria Grinnik, Dmitro Dukov, Anastasia Logutkina, and Anatoly Karpov.

May God forgive their sins from this life, grant each of them eternal rest in His presence, wipe away all tears and sorrow, and comfort their families.

Eternal memory.

[lordtiberius]

Good post.

Bravery is never wasted.

[mendeleyev]

Thanks, LT.

The original article at the MJ includes photos of some of the heroes.

[lordtiberius]

In terms of geopolitics, one would be wise to read every article on the MJ.  He posts articles that always prove prescient.  Case in point, articles related to Siberia.  MJ discussed moving the capital to Novosibirsk and another article of carving Russia into zones occupied by the US and China.  Later, the NYT posts a similar article about the Sinofication of Siberia. . . .

[Brasscasing]

The machine gun mounts on top of the turrets between both tanks are clearly different but are consistent on both trains. You don't have to identify the whole tank but the mounts are identifiable There are lots of photographers behind comrade general. It would be silly for RT and the Russian military to lie about outdated tanks when it's in public view and on camera. In the whole scheme of things, Putin is putting in a serious home security system in Crimea. He investing Russia deeper into this crisis.

Possibly, the uniformity is there. I doubt they'd be trying to pull a fast one with the locals but these Youtube vids (pro or con) are for our benefit or the narrative would be in Cyrillic.

It looks impressive but in the over all scheme of things it's not awe inspiring. You put any large armored numbers on rail cars or see them congregating at a railhead and there's a Wow factor. It doesn't mean the end is nigh. What it does  tell us is according to this vid Russia is putting tanks into Crimea. Strength or for what purpose is not clear at this point. For all we know that was the entire compliment.

Brass


 

[JayH]

Note the current assessment of capability


JANUARY 16, 2015
Russia Could Soon Run Multiple Ukraine-Sized Operations: US General

Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, a senior American general said.

Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told Reuters an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-could-soon-run-multiple-ukraine-sized-operations-us-general

[Brasscasing]

Note the current assessment of capability


JANUARY 16, 2015
Russia Could Soon Run Multiple Ukraine-Sized Operations: US General

Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, a senior American general said.

Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told Reuters an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-could-soon-run-multiple-ukraine-sized-operations-us-general

As an observation; It's funny how the same phrases keep popping up in these press and briefing summaries, whether it's the West's assessment or propaganda from Russia - In a few years, are developing, testing new capabilities, will be capable of,working to develop . - Yeah, the Russian's are scrambling to bring their military up to western standards but does it not make more sense to be more concerned (NATO countries, that is) with what they're capable of doing today not by 2020 or beyond?

Brass

[mendeleyev]

This is an aerial reconnaissance video of the Donetsk airport by what I am assuming was a drone, on January 15. It is obviously produced to stir the heart strings and generate donations, but I would imagine hard to refute by our Russian members.

[JayH]

U.S. soldiers have already arrived for combined training in Rukla, their equipment already in Lithuania too

The heavy combat equipment brought by the U.S. allies, i.e. the STRYKER multipurpose armoured wheeled personnel carriers, the HMMWV armoured all-terrain vehicles, military trucks, etc., will also be stationed in Rukla once they reach Lithuania and get transported from Klaipėda to Rukla via railway on January 15-16.

[BillyB]

Note the current assessment of capability


JANUARY 16, 2015
Russia Could Soon Run Multiple Ukraine-Sized Operations: US General

Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine, a senior American general said.

Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, told Reuters an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/russia-could-soon-run-multiple-ukraine-sized-operations-us-general

Now you're getting it. Russia's military isn't something to laugh about. I just read the same article today on another news site. Putin is not concerned about fixing the health of his economy as much as he is increasing his military might. He plans on using that military. As Putin gets older, he'll probably get more senile than sane. That would be dangerous. The American general also believes Putin will take over NATO nations using methods he used in Crimea. As long a Putin denies he's involved and gets the world to believe unidentified little green men aren't his and the citizens of those nations are the ones that what to join the dark side, NATO may not get involved.

[JayH]

Now you're getting it. Russia's military isn't something to laugh about. I just read the same article today on another news site. Putin is not concerned about fixing the health of his economy as much as he is increasing his military might. He plans on using that military. As Putin gets older, he'll probably get more senile than sane. That would be dangerous. The American general also believes Putin will take over NATO nations using methods he used in Crimea. As long a Putin denies he's involved and gets the world to believe unidentified little green men aren't his and the citizens of those nations are the ones that what to join the dark side, NATO may not get involved.

BB-- do you think Putin is going to announce Russia is broke and worse is to come?
Putin will not get old in office-- only a few months--not years-and his brain is already gone. Only rat-cunning now.
btw--I am not "getting" anything new-article confirms that Russia is extended now-- which is contrary to what you have been saying and consistent with what Brass & others are saying!!
I am sure that we will not be suspense long to see who proves to be correct.

ps/1 if you had bothered to read the link-it refers to Russian capabilities in 2020--not today
ps/2   Despite full on assault of Russian Army -Ukrainians still hold airport  ~~~~~

[lordtiberius]

These Russians appear to really love Putin