Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[JayH]

BillyB--this is for you !!  And all the other nay sayers-- read it and get updated-it reflects the reality--it is Russia in trouble now-- and that is on the battlefield-let alone an economy on the brink of collapse !!
QUOTE
"Although the Ukrainian military is now the largest, combat-ready force in Europe and observers marvel at its performance, the battlefield is still terribly uneven.  Ukrainians are desperately short of advanced armaments, anti-tank and anti-armor guided missiles, aerial support, and real time intelligence"
END QUOTE
Take Note-- more writers are getting a much better grip on what is really going on--these are CURRENT views and not conceived in previous eras . Events have moved very fast and constantly changed over this last 15 months-- and I can see constant movement in the immediate future.
There are lot's of good quotes in the following story-- I have included a small summary--
How Russia lost the war

What bunglers Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin cronies must be! Crimea, with its sunny beaches and citrus groves, fell like manna from heaven into their hands…simply because there was no push back.  The old, discredited, Ukrainian regime fled after reducing Ukraine’s combat -ready troops to the size of Slovenia’s. The new  government was in disarray. Putin’s billion-dollar propaganda machine was primed and loaded with volleys of smears.  Ukraine’s budget was tens of billions in the red and the nation’s gas lifeline cut off.  Everything was going their way. And then the problems started.

They came up against Ukrainians…not the “faux” type who applaud Russian entertainers bad-mouthing Ukraine; or who wear embroidered shirts but are ashamed to use their native language ….but real Ukrainians.  The kind that picked up Soviet-era  AK-47s, wrapped some black bread and cured fatback in improvised backpacks,  and took off for the front.  The kind that knew that the “front” was wherever foreigners and their supporters were desecrating his native land and abusing his compatriots. And these largely untrained and unequipped volunteer citizen - soldiers fought Putin’s forces to a standstill.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/george-woloshyn-how-russia-lost-the-war-376920.html

[BillyB]

With NATO officially out of combat operations in Afghanistan as of Jan. 1, the alliance's agenda is expected to be dominated by the new strategic realities in Europe conjured up by Moscow's annexation of Crimea and alleged proxy war in eastern Ukraine, and what the West should do in response. . . .
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-s-priority-in-2015-setting-up-reaction-force-in-europe

Hey Jay, I want to come back to this article. While NATO nations are figuring out if they will create a rapid response brigade and who's going to pay for it, Obama is downsizing our forces in Europe as we speak. These reductions in force in Europe and at home will happen over the next decade. This is not a surprise since most of us knew one of Obama's goals was to reduce our military force during his presidency. The policy may change if America votes in a president that thinks differently but that will be a few more years down the road. I understand you are looking for articles showing the West is making stronger moves to back Ukraine but don't ignore the other truth. Obama is pulling troops out of Europe and that sends the wrong message to Putin who is making his military stronger. Many of the guys at the forum are pulling for Ukraine's freedom. We are in the minority. Most of our fellow citizens don't identify with Ukrainians and aren't as eager to spend money and shed blood to help them. Our politicians realize this and most likely will act accordingly to what the majority wants. While Putin is on Winter break, you can be sure he's trying to figure out what he can and can't get away with before making his next move. The West's message to Putin isn't as strong as you want to believe. I hope Europe invests more into their security while we reduce our role to protect them.


http://news.yahoo.com/facing-shrinking-budgets-pentagon-moves-cut-european-bases-131430270.html

War should definitely be the last resort not the first. A war while a shot in the arm to an economy is only artificial.

WW2 helped propel America and Russia into superpowers. It's amazing how Russia came so close to losing with massive destruction to their infrastructure and exit the war as a superpower. Putin is aware of history showing with the right moves, a nation can emerge stronger after a war. He will factor the odds of that happening into his decisions.

[JayH]

BB--keep watching the news on what future US moves will  be--near enough the opposite of a withdrawal!In effect--it will be more specific in intent but masked as more general !

Try this QUOTE--
"Europe and the U.S., for their part, should not –under any circumstance- allow Putin to come out ahead or even break even. He started a world crisis without right, reason, and remorse, and now Ukraine and the civilized world must end it.  Any compromise will be seen by him as a victory, and the world will have to face him again in the future. He must not be allowed to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat."
END QUOTE
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/george-woloshyn-how-russia-lost-the-war-376920.html

The guy making these comments-
George Woloshyn worked in the administration of U.S. President Ronald Reagan. He is a former naval intelligence commander and former director of U.S. National Security Preparedness and a former director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Security Investigations.

There is a good understanding  in Washington of the issues at stake in Ukraine-- many influential and knowledgeable are on similar themes now . Note-- a lot of these writings are running behind what has happened or is happening now.

[BillyB]

BB--keep watching the news....

Most news sources in America don't put the problems in Ukraine and Putin's antics on the front page anymore. Readers are getting bored and care less about what is happening over there. France's president is publically calling on reversing the sanctions instead of increasing them. A showing of strength through unity among Western nations is falling apart. If by chance Western nations help Ukraine on a large scale, it'll be done for our own interests, not because we care about Ukrainians.

[JayH]

F-35s to Replace Troops in Europe as Russia Deterrent

The Pentagon announced Thursday, Jan. 8, that as part of its response to Russian aggression, it would dispatch two squadrons of next-generation fighter jets to the United Kingdom to replace military personnel currently being withdrawn.
The shift is part of the $985 million “European Reassurance Initiative,” the Obama administration’s effort to bolster European militaries in the wake of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in March.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/08/f-35s-to-replace-troops-in-europe-as-russia-deterrent/?wp_login_redirect=0

[AC]

History will prove my case on that-I am in no doubt.My view is that he has handled this well--given all the complexities of the situation. I give credit to all of his administration on this. Now they are in moving to a more overt support of Ukraine phase- softly softly!!
Have faith LT-right will overcome-eventually!!

The sanctions are important-very important as has been all the economic attack--BUT-- Putin & Russia are not rational . They are more likely to expand the militarism in the face of defeat rather than concede.Getting rid of Putin could see a bigger madman get control- so being prepared for a worse case scenario is logical.

You go from claiming the Ukrainians can beat Putins military to this?  You are all over the map.  Billy is correct that if Putin wanted to he could steamroll tanks quickly across E. Europe.  Hopefully it will never come to that, as currently the USA and Nato are not prepared.  Poland and the Baltics are correct to fear the Bear, they know from the past what kind of atrocities the Russians (ie the Soviets which IMO are one and the same) are capable of.

[AC]

Not eager to see any Ukrainian blood spilt at all-- when you can arrange for removal/withdrawl of Russia from Ukrainian territory without it--let me know!
Where will the money come from-- actually read the link--Soros has a few ideas and suggestions.
Ukraine has multi facetted series of problems to solve-potential solutions need to be inter connected-- as I outlined they can be.

The bottom line-- it would be a lot cheaper for the west generally-- to assist Ukraine in every way-- than having to fight Russia in another sphere.
QUOTING SOROS
"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia. Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the EU countries. Framed this way, the amounts currently contemplated shrink into insignificance. If the international authorities fail to come up with an impressive assistance program in response to an aggressive Ukrainian reform program, the new Ukraine will probably fail, Europe will be left on its own to defend itself against Russian aggression, and Europe will have abandoned the values and principles on which the European Union was founded. That would be an irreparable loss."
End Quote

I posted a link to the Soros article you are quoting a month ago.  However the more I look into Soros the more uneasy I get.  I am beginning to think that Ukraine might be better doing a deal with Putin then borrowing money from Soros or any of his desired bankers.  There are strings attached to this guy and he is known as an amoral blood sucking vampire of economies and countries around the World.  Much more research needs to be done about what his endgame and true intentions are.

[AC]

F-35s to Replace Troops in Europe as Russia Deterrent

The Pentagon announced Thursday, Jan. 8, that as part of its response to Russian aggression, it would dispatch two squadrons of next-generation fighter jets to the United Kingdom to replace military personnel currently being withdrawn.
The shift is part of the $985 million “European Reassurance Initiative,” the Obama administration’s effort to bolster European militaries in the wake of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in March.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/08/f-35s-to-replace-troops-in-europe-as-russia-deterrent/?wp_login_redirect=0

Aircraft will never replace troops on the ground.  Our bombing campaign against ISIS is quickly proving this. 

[AkMike]

he is known as an amoral blood sucking vampire of economies and countries around the World. 

 AND those are his good points!

[AC]

AND those are his good points!

Scary stuff.  Word is that he is the lunatic who changed the Democratic party from being a decent party that supported blue collar working class people into the crazy nut jobs that they are today.  He is allegedly somehow responsible for an unknown community organizer from Chicago without any business or military experience becoming President.  He hates America and American values and wants to install a "new world order" with one government for the entire World.  What better person to choose than a Muslim Marxist?  He supports all sorts of lunatic fringe type of stuff.  I really don't know about this guy...what is he up to in Ukraine?

[AkMike]

What ever plans he has will be good for him alone.
Not Ukraine.

[Brasscasing]

One little brigade will merely be a speed bump for 20 armored Russian divisions. NATO members made pact to come to each others aid in war. Isn't their promise to each other enough? Creating an extra brigade of troops to show Putin they mean business is a little silly. Even JayH's article said they still haven't determined who's going to pay for it. It's always a great idea until it has to be paid for. It's no secret most NATO members in Europe do not spend the required 2% of their GDP on defense spending. They expect America to do the security work. Putin understands most of those nations do not put money where their mouth is.

Russians don't employ 'armored divisions' they employ two types of tank brigades (heavy and medium).

The NATO brigade is touted as a 'tip of the spear' formation. It's not being formed to show Putin NATO mean business as much as to reassure it's less capable members and create a 'tripwire' type response to any potential use by Russia of military force presumably against a NATO country. I'd assume the idea would be deployment before invasion.

I agree with your comments regarding who's paying the bill. Every time there is an increase in military expenditure with NATO or otherwise, the question of who's footing the bill is the first question raised, U.S., Canada, U.K, Germany, doesn't matter, the same questions gets asked in the media and respective governments.

Google is quite easy to use. Russia has over 15,000 tanks. An armored division usually has 300 tanks assigned to it. You may have read somewhere Russia has less than 20 armored divisions and that may be true in peacetime but in wartime nations will activate the inactive units.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=russia

I don't know where Global got that figure from but it's outlandishly inflated. The Russians have no more than 2000 T-90 MTBs and maybe twice that in modernized soviet era T-72s, T-80s and some other lesser known models. They have nowhere near 15,000 tanks combat ready or otherwise at there disposal.

Granted this wont make a difference for East European countries with similar equipment but for NATO forces it's the T-90 that's the concern.

If anyone's interested this article gives a pretty good overview of how the Russian land forces are organized...

http://www.rusi.org/publications/newsbrief/ref:A5331667D996C4/#.VK_rwul0zMw

This article gives a critical estimate of Russia's capabilities as opposed to the media hysteria surrounding same...

http://russiamil.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/how-not-to-do-maps-of-military-strength/

This webpage gives a detailed description/history of the T-90 MTB itself...

http://www.militaryfactory.com/armor/detail.asp?armor_id=161

It's easy to ridicule a person or nation you don't like but this is no laughing matter. Russia has the ability to take all of Eastern Europe in a short time if they wanted to and shatter the economies of Western Europe.

America already have brigades that are capable of travelling anywhere in the world within 24 hrs and engage in combat. These high speed rapid forces usually consist of paratroopers and light infantry. It's hard to transport heavy armor so quickly. Light infantry won't do much against heavy armor. If Putin decides to plow through Eastern Europe with dozens of armored divisions, Obama would be stupid to drop a few brigades of lightly equipped troops into a meat grinder. To meet NATO requirements, America will mobilize on Western European soil, get organized and begin attack only when at proper strength to dominate a fight. Poland and the Baltic nations realize this and that is why they are scared to death what Russia could do. They understand their world would be destroyed before fellow NATO members come to their rescue.

Parts of Eastern Europe maybe but not all and I highly doubt Russia could shatter the economies of Western Europe. Germany is the European economic powerhouse not Russia.

Agreed for the most part to your Para 2 regarding mobilizing. What needs to be considered is in this day and age you can't mobilize large combat formations with the associated supply trains and rear echelons without it being known worldwide.

Russia was able to concentrate large formations for the invasions Georgia and Ukraine under the guise of 'large military (district) exercises in the past. That excuse wouldn't fly with NATO now. Any further concentrations would Alert NATO and they'd mobilize accordingly, probably in lock step with the Russian concentration.

In other words it wouldn't be a case of being caught off guard if Russia were to attempt a military incursion of a NATO country. They might get through the front door initially but would be sent packing soon enough.

Poland is not scared to death of Russia. Poland may well be the spark that lights the fire...I personally think they view this latest Russian era of aggression as an opportunity for some payback but that aside here's a critical view of Poland's preparedness...

http://20committee.com/2014/10/30/poland-prepares-for-russian-invasion/

They may not be a superpower but Poland's seen this coming for a long time.

Brass

[Gator]

Poland is not scared to death of Russia.... here's a critical view of Poland's preparedness...

http://20committee.com/2014/10/30/poland-prepares-for-russian-invasion/

They may not be a superpower but Poland's seen this coming for a long time.

Your link quotes the Polish military who are not too kind about Obama:

“I didn’t need the Beltway media to tell me who the real chickenshit is.” “They really have no idea what they are doing,” he opined about Obama and his national security staff, “and we know it. You have no idea how many promises we’ve been given, even by the President himself, but there’s never any follow-up, it’s all talk. He thinks he’s on Oprah.” When I asked if he thought America would come to Poland’s aid in a crisis, he said laconically, “I’d flip a coin.”

In a similar vein, a senior Polish intelligence official, another veteran of long collaboration with Washington, DC, expressed his skepticism to me. “Is it 1939 again? I don’t know,” he explained, “but I think Obama isn’t even a Chamberlain,”

[AC]

Poland is not scared to death of Russia. Poland may well be the spark that lights the fire...I personally think they view this latest Russian era of aggression as an opportunity for some payback but that aside here's a critical view of Poland's preparedness...

http://20committee.com/2014/10/30/poland-prepares-for-russian-invasion/

Poland may not be scared of Russia but they're also not there yet.  Most telling about the article is their deep concern about the Obama administrations words without actions, in fact he puts it simply that as an ally they expect the President to keep his promises when in reality the US President behaves like he's on Oprah -- all show and no go.  Talk is cheap in this part of the World, actions matter much more.

excerpt
"When it comes to conventional defense, however, the news from Poland appears less rosy. Despite the fact that no one questions the basic competence of the Polish armed forces, nor the impressiveness of their current defense acquisition program, there is a matter of size. The recent MoD announcement that it is moving thousands of troops closer to the country’s borders with Belarus and Ukraine, where any threat would emerge, is encouraging but not sufficient (thanks to the Cold War, when Poland’s Communist military was directed westward, most of its major military bases are closer to Germany than the East). Since the abandonment of conscription five years ago, a cumbersome process that caused readiness problems for some time, Warsaw’s armed forces come to only 120,000 active duty troops, with less than 48,000 in the ground forces (i.e. the army). That number is insufficient to man the army’s structure of three divisions with thirteen maneuver brigades (ten of them armored or mechanized).

A solution to this manpower shortfall was supposed to be found in the establishment of the National Reserve Forces (NSR), with 20,000 fully trained part-time volunteers who would flesh out the order of battle in a crisis. Yet the NSR, which was announced by the MoD five years ago with much fanfare, has had considerable teething problems, with shortages of recruits and inadequate training budgets. Recent reports indicate both morale and readiness are low among NSR soldiers, who feel poorly treated by the regular military, while none dispute that the force has only recruited and trained 10,000 troops, half the target figure."

[Brasscasing]

Your link quotes the Polish military who are not too kind about Obama:

No, they're not. 

I tend to think (government diplomacy aside) that most Western (NATO) military people/organizations have a similar views of the President. I belong to two veterans organizations and hear similar assessments (Beer talk) even in Canada.

The pertinent question is do the Russians believe it.

Brass

[AC]

No, they're not. 

I tend to think (government diplomacy aside) that most Western (NATO) military people/organizations have a similar views of the President. I belong to two veterans organizations and hear similar assessments (Beer talk) even in Canada.

The pertinent question is do the Russians believe it.

Brass

That's a huge part of the problem.  The Russians know he's a weak man with no spine.  So do the Chinese, the Iranians and all our other enemies.  A red line in the sand comes to mind.

[Doll]

Chinese are enemies to who?

[Shadow]

The concern show what is known of Poland and the Baltics. Theay are ready to build their army and put weapons. Just not on their own money.

[Shadow]

Chinese are enemies to who?

Wu was the leader of China.

[AC]

The concern show what is known of Poland and the Baltics. They are ready to build their army and put weapons. Just not on their own money.

Poland spends more than the required 2% for a Nato member, so you are wrong about them.

[Muzh]

That's a huge part of the problem.  The Russians know he's a weak man with no spine.  So do the Chinese, the Iranians and all our other enemies.  A red line in the sand comes to mind.

Just because you wake up every morning and wish it true doesn't make it true. Keep that in mind.

[jone]

Wu was the leader of China.

Fun is my Chinese neighbor's middle name!

[Muzh]

Fun is my Chinese neighbor's middle name!

Ah, Wong Hun Lo's cousin.

[AC]

Just because you wake up every morning and wish it true doesn't make it true. Keep that in mind.

Stop watching cartoons with your kid and read the article about what a Polish officer, our ally in E. Europe says about Obama.  And he is only one guy.  Still in denial that Jonathan Gruber was an architect of "Obamacare" as well?  Have some sugar with that denial.

[AC]

Chinese are enemies to who?

Most directly to the Russian Federation.  Too bad you might not be alive in 50 years or so when they reclaim most of the Russian Far East under the assumption that they need to protect "ethnic Chinese speakers".