The Russia We'd Like To See

[jone]

I first made landfall in Russia over fifteen years ago.  I was looking at some old passports that showed my travel histories and saw evidence of my first visit there.  But my love for Russia extends to a much earlier period of my life.  I was a young man when the Berlin wall fell and I studied Russian in college, knowing that some day the future of civilization might well depend on the ability of Russian to develop her natural resources.

For those of us who have turned to Eastern Europe to find our spouse, we are conflicted with the Russia that we have both known and loved, and the one that presents itself in current affairs of State.  This week Russia announced further provocations intended to demonstrate just how naughty the state can be.  One one account, Russia suspended all cooperation on curtailing nuclear arms proliferation, development and testing.  On another account Russia announced air patrols in the Gulf of Mexico.   To back up Putin at the G20 Summit, Russia stationed 4 warships just off the coast of Australia.  All activities were intended to provoke and demonstrate on behalf of a bellicose society that is now viewed as a pariah by the rest of Western civilization.  This attitude, of course, serves as an overlay of Russia's activities in Ukraine, the possible seizure of Mariupol prior to the freezing of the Sea of Azov.

But for those with a bigger vision, this is not the Russia we know.  Those of us who have delved into cities and towns outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg know that Russia is teeming with natural resources that are untapped, lacking only the infrastructure to create a vibrant economy not dedicated to petrodollars.  This was the promise unrealized of the 1991 change of government.  Somewhere Boris Yeltsin lies uneasy in his grave, while his chosen successor undoes all of the personal freedoms and democratic change that he willingly fought for and, ultimately gave up power to see its succession.

The Russia that Putin aspires to is a cheap imitation of the former Soviet Union, with little hope of any greatness, and a dead end road for the tank he is driving.  The GDP costs of activity in Ukraine, coupled with oil prices are driving his economy to the brink.

Were Russia today (pun intended) be willing to absolve itself from all the aggressive activity demonstrated by its current leader, then a new and brighter vision prevails.  Russia is the greatest treasure trove on the planet of untapped resources.  The myopic and self-serving vision of the two Federal Cities curtails the awesome development that would occur in Siberia and other regions of Russia with the right leadership.  Instead, Russia depends only on its petrodollars that it now knows can be manipulated by Fracking and other global forces, in a VERY short period of time.

Russia cannot win on the economic front.  Otherwise, Ukraine and all of the other Eastern European countries would not have turned west, suffering the transition years of developing Western style economies. 

Putin's sole vision is to maintain an artificial nationalistic high, which, ultimately will result in a greater fall for his people than the failure of the economy leading up to 1991.  I, as a Russia lover, would advocate a face saving reversal of subtle means that slowly turns Russia back to its people.  This is the advice, I'm sure, that Mutti gave Vlad at their three hour sidebar meeting held at the Summit this week.  All evidence is that he wasn't listening.  Absent that reversal, I'm afraid Russia is hellbent on its own destruction.  Hopefully, like the Firebird, it can rise from the ashes that a lack of leadership benefiting the Russian country creates.

Anyone care to join this discussion?

[jone]

After reading what I wrote, I have come to believe that maybe America owes its own history of succession not to the greatness of George Washington, that he relinquished power after two terms in office, but to the fortunate aim of Aaron Burr.   Had Burr not killed Hamilton, it is likely that sooner or later, Hamilton would have won the Presidency.  I believe he would have presented the same manipulative tendencies we now see in Putin.  What would the US have looked like under a Hamilton Presidency?

[Muzh]

Jone, it is a very difficult topic to discuss since many Americans on this board have no clue as to what is the Russian mentality, myself included.


I can make educated guesses. Like why the Russians would support a kleptocracy? Beats the hell out of me, but it seems based of their typical response previous generations were so indoctrinated to accept that as their reality that it becomes standard of living.


My wife once told me that the Soviet mentality was breast fed into her as a child. That is a very strong statement. Similar to many in rural America being indoctrinated into baseball, apple pie and Chevrolet that they consider a kebab or a taco an affront to their Americanism*.


I really fear that any positive changes in Russia and in the US will take a few more generations to happen. We need something like an intellectual forest fire to burn the dead wood and start anew.


*For illustration purposes for those who have a hard time digesting and interpreting hyperbole.


...4, 3, 2, 1...

[JayH]

Nice post jone on a currently difficult topic.I was reflecting on my change of view of Russia since the same time a year ago- and how now I cannot think of Russia   it's murderous behaviour in Ukraine.
As an overall thought-- mixed in Putin's lunacy is a failing  politician's  to avoid the reality--that is that Russia's economy has been on a downward path to nowhere and he could not change it.
The endemic corruption,incompetence and inefficiency of Russia as a whole was always going to catch up at some time if major reform was not undertaken-- and reviving jingoistic nationalism as a diversion Is an age old political move by failing politicians.
Throw is starting a few diversionary wars,invade other territories on some ridiculous premise ,manipulate the flow of information and maybe you can hang onto power a while longer.
        Once Russia commenced the invasion of Ukraine in the Crimea  the catalyst was created that will see the break up of the current Russian empire-the remnants of the Soviet Union will become numerous countries and Russia itself-- a much smaller country and lose any ability to influence or control the former parts of the USSR.
       That is what Putin's legacy will be to the Russian people.

[Gator]

Jone,

It seems your sentiments are close to mine. 

With the collapse of the Soviet Union,  Russia had the potential to achieve so much.  It had abundant natural resources plus educated and  trained human resources.  Although its factories, infrastructure, etc. were outdated, petrodollars and foreign investment could have modernized them in a generation or two.   East Germany without natural resources has closed the large gap with West Germany.  Russia could have done the same. 

While many outside Russia consider Putin a villain, we must recognize that life for Russians has improved dramatically in the 23 years since 1991, particularly while under the leadership of Putin. Yet all of us feel it could have been far better if the Russian society had the freedoms we enjoy in the West.  Imagine Russia with the power of free enterprise not encumbered by corruption or arbitrary exercise of power without rule of law.  Imagine Russia if it had truly democratic elections. 

I disagree with you that Russia is "hellbent on its own destruction."  Russia may be headed for a long period of stagnation, possibly even some decline, yet  destruction is prevented by its ample income of petrodollars.  Even with bad management,  the most dissolute American athletes are still able to party as long as they are paid the big bucks. 

While you "advocate a face saving reversal of subtle means that slowly turns Russia back to its people," Putin will do what it takes to stay in power, knowing if he ever lost power, he would be imprisoned for life.  So far his strategy is working as something is making Russians believe in Putin. 

Based on the support of Putin expressed by the Russians I know and the few who speak at RWD, Putin will be around for a long time.  I second Muzh's comment, "...positive changes in Russia and in the US will take a few more generations to happen."

[Gator]

Muzh,

I am from rural America, and Big Macs are bad, tacos are good, especially those from Taco Bus where "broken English is spoken smoothly."       Check the menu, and note cabbage, not lettuce. 

http://www.taco-bus.com/food

[Gator]

My stepson fears a conflict between Russia and America, believing the US military will intern him in  a camp such as we had in WWII for Japanese-Americans.   

[Boethius]

With the collapse of the Soviet Union,  Russia had the potential to achieve so much.  It had abundant natural resources plus educated and  trained human resources.  Although its factories, infrastructure, etc. were outdated, petrodollars and foreign investment could have modernized them in a generation or two.   East Germany without natural resources has closed the large gap with West Germany.  Russia could have done the same. 

I disagree with this statement, somewhat.

The USSR, on paper, had an educated populace, but politics triumphed brains.  The Russians recognized this.  The late Sergey Kapitsa, a world renowned scientist and son of Nobel laureate Pyotr Kapitsa, was asked to undergo a thorough review of the state of Russia's academic life.  He declared it dead.  For a country the size of Russia, there is a paucity of scientific research, and of scientific "brainpower", other than in physics.  Today, Russian graduate students are offered scholarships to study abroad, provided they agree to return home. 

I am not suggesting Russians are less intelligent, just that the education system was politicized.  To overcome such a legacy takes time.  Furthermore, although I can't speak for pure sciences, when I look at Russian media, it is the children of the former nomenklatura who dominate English language services (such as Russia Today).  That suggests to me that the same system of advancement is in place, to some degree.  That does not change overnight.

Russia also was not aided by the "shock therapy" designed by Jeffrey Sachs and implemented on the advice of Western economists.  That not only was cruel in its effects on the populace, but also was a factor leading to the rise of oligarchs and the flight of hundreds of thousands to more stable lives abroad. 


Although it is changing, the legacy of communism continues to haunt Russia in many respects.

As for East Germany, I only know what I read, but everything I have read states East Germany lags far behind the West.  Here is one article, from last year.

http://qz.com/60481/why-the-former-east-germany-is-lagging-24-years-after-the-berlin-wall-came-down/

[Gator]

As for East Germany, I only know what I read, but everything I have read states East Germany lags far behind the West.  Here is one article, from last year.

http://qz.com/60481/why-the-former-east-germany-is-lagging-24-years-after-the-berlin-wall-came-down/

The case of East Germany is a good one for comparison because  there are huge institutional differences between today's unified East Germany and Russia.  In being unified with the West, East German society rid itself of both the corruption and autocratic government we associate with Russia.  Also, the unified East Germany has rule of law.   To a significant degree, East's transition to capitalism was mentored by the West.  Who mentored Russia?

My opinion regarding East Germany's economic improvement comes mostly from one of my business partners, a son of a German aeronautical engineers working under the Nazis and "retained" by the Americans for the US space program.  My partner purchased in the 1990s a struggling East German factory.  It took a long time for him to turn it around, yet 20 years later it is both competitive with the West and compliant with ISO standards. 

More pertinent to this discussion, he feels the divide between  East and West Germans has narrowed considerably.  He says there are still some differences, probably a hangover from both communism and a depressed economy.    For example, he mentioned modest behavior differences in queues, tourism (West Germans camp in caravans while East Germans use tents), etc. 

A key indicator of how much East Germany has closed the gap would be the migration from the East to the West.  Unlike the early years of reunification, migration has trickled to a halt as reported today in The Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10466089/East-to-west-German-migration-trickles-to-a-halt-23-years-after-reunification.html

You referenced a good article that presents hard economic data.  If you study the economic graphs in the article you reference, it shows East Germany is closing the gap with the West.  My post is misleading as I should have written "narrowed the gap" or "closing the gap."  My phrase "closed the gap" suggests equality, something I inferred from discussions with my business partner, yet he too admits that it is still not "One Germany."   

[Gator]

I looked for graphs comparing the economies of the former East Germany, Ukraine, Russia and former Easter Bloc counties now part of the EU. 

I found no graphs in my quick search, yet the following per capita GDP data from the World Bank is informative (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD)

COUNTRY                                1990                                1994                      2013

Russia                                   $3,485                                $2,663                           $14,612
Belarus                                   1,705                                  1,460                               7,575
Ukraine                                   1,570                                  1,012                              3,900
Poland                                    1,694                                  2,813                             13,432
Estonia                                      ND                                   2,725                             18,478
Czech                                      3,787                                 4,449                             18,861
Hungary                                  3,186                                 4,096                             13,134
Romania                                  1,651                                 1,323                               9,499


One understands why Ukraine wants to align itself with Europe. 


 
This raises some germane questions:

1.  The economies of those former communist countries most closely associated with Russia regressed in the first few years when transitioning from communism to capitalism.  In contrast, the countries who aligned with Europe progressed even in the transition years.  Why?

2.  If  East Germany, Poland, Estonia et al are not a growing success, is there hope for Russia (and Ukraine)?    If not, it will take generations as Muzh asserted.

3.  The ties with Russia do not explain why Belarus's economy has grown to a level nearly 100% larger than Ukraine's.  Why?   

4.  What were the key difference between Ukraine and its neighbor Romania?

Any answers?

[Doll]

The Russia We'd Like To See 

Who "we?

[Gator]

Who "we?

           

"We" are those who:

1.  Believe that Putin has not only bullied a vassal state (Ukraine), stolen sovereign land by invasion, and plans to steal more under the false pretenses that he is preventing  ethnic cleansings of Russians.    In this case "We" is the world other than Russia.   

2.  Believe that  rule of law, democratic government, free press, free enterprise, no corruption, two political parties, etc.  are good for mankind.   In that case "We" is the world less Russia and North Korea. 

3.  Do not reminisce about Soviet communism and long for the sense of national pride imprinted in those days.

[Doll]

Listen, "pride" is not something "Soviet", it is very Russian. I mean national.
I already wrote- we'd prefer eat dirt but not yield.

[AC]

Who "we?

You don't speak for all Russians.  When Putler has an election or takes polls it's very obvious that the figures are manipulated.  The best and brightest leave Russia (you excluded) so they are no longer available for a Russian poll.

[Doll]

You don't speak for all Russians.   

Exactly what I was going to say-"YOU don't speak for Russians (I do) and there is no "WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE "
Russians don't care what you "would like to see".

Yes- this is  Russian mentality which you will NEVER understand.
I am sure Putin will in next elections.

[Doll]

Otherwise, Ukraine and all of the other Eastern European countries would not have turned west, suffering the transition years of developing Western style economies. 

What are " the other eastern European countries?"

[Gator]

Listen, "pride" is no something "Soviet", it is very Russian. I mean national.
I already wrote- we'd prefer eat dirt but not yield.

And some men say women are women everywhere, that RW are no more stubborn than other women.

Maybe RW are no  more stubborn; perhaps it is nothing more than their information gathering step is flawed.   

[Doll]

And some men say women are women everywhere, that RW are no more stubborn than other women.

Maybe RW are no  more stubborn; perhaps it is nothing more than their information gathering step is flawed.   

RW are more stubborn when you threaten them (like with sanctions)))).
Many be not "more" but in a different way. Which one- you will never know.

[AkMike]

RW are more stubborn when you threaten them (like with sanctions)))).
Many be not "more" but in a different way. Which one- you will never know.

Russian Women aren't under sanctions just the invading government and it's 'useful idiot puppets' that cannot reason for themselves.

[Doll]

Russian Women aren't under sanctions just the invading government and it's 'useful idiot puppets' that cannot reason for themselves.

The don't go for off topic.
BTW, Russian women are part of Russia.

[Boethius]

Just how well has that stubborness worked over the centuries?

Despite fabulous resources that are the envy of most nations, and should make the entire country a source of great wealth, Russians do not have a standard of living close to that of their Western European counterparts.  Its lands are drenched in blood, up to the 21st century.  So, does logic not dictate that a different approach, for the good of Russians, is required?

[AkMike]

It's getting a pretty good start on reliving it's bloody past into this century also.

[BillyB]

RW are more stubborn when you threaten them (like with sanctions)))).

You want another round of sanctions? You've got it! Alright men, lets do our part and abstain from sex with all Russian women. Who's with me?

[AkMike]

No problem! I'll stick with my UA wife!

[AC]

Exactly what I was going to say-"YOU don't speak for Russians (I do) and there is no "WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE "
Russians don't care what you "would like to see".

Yes- this is  Russian mentality which you will NEVER understand.
I am sure Putin will in next elections.

And you don't speak for humanity as a whole.  It is human nature to want to be a respected nation along with the other nations on earth.  Since Russia under Putler has failed this, then the rest of the leading nations who follow international law, of which Russia is a signatory, have an obligation to take punitive actions against Russia.  The economic sanctions are a critical and important part of that obligation.  Under the Budapest memorandum the UK and the USA are morally obligated to come to the aid of Ukraine, including providing weaponry so that Ukraine can defend itself against the bully to the East.