RUSSIA-The Future 2015 & on

[lordtiberius]

Without voices like Billy B, I don't think Ukraine would get "this" much . . .

[Muzh]

Without voices like Billy B, I don't think Ukraine would get "this" much . . .

That says a LOT coming from you. 

[lordtiberius]

Your plan for Ukraine is your own your buddy.

Typical car loss crap

[AC]

No Billyb, I don't read all you've written on the endless call to war threads. In fact, I don't read most of them but the one your wrote here speaks for itself. If Ukraine hinges on the West and leadership from Obama, it's already over with and no amount of chest pounding by you on RWD is going to change that

While I agree with the overall nature of your post President Poroshenko made the speech that he made in Congress because he was hoping that there were some honorable members there.  We know that Obama does not have an honorable bone in his body however there is some small glimmer of hope that the Republican backed Congress may force a deal through for more military hardware for Ukraine.

Meanwhile they need to keep getting all the weapons they can from Poland, Canada and whoever else cares about them.

[fathertime]

For FT and his portfolio:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-22/russia-stocks-jump-to-2011-high-as-ecb-bets-boost-risk-appetite.html?hootPostID=66e30e4512ef69b2b1a248d0a95c3af7

Russia Stocks Jump Most in World as ECB Bets Boost Risk Appetite

Oh that's just silly..I don't own ANY Russian stocks. The US stocks are where I'm at, thankfully.  I was very tempted to go international about 5 years ago, but I didn't. ..my friend who did,probably has delayed his retirement my 5 or more years as international stocks haven't performed like ours have.

[lordtiberius]

Take a victory lap, FT.  Drink a fine port.  Your team won and a lot of good men died today convulsing to nerve gas.  Andrew Wilson's friend is rifling through dead men's pockets and posting pictures of their kids.  Men who surrendered will be humiliated on Putin TV.  Drink up.

[lordtiberius]

Putin's business cronies loose half their money
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-22/putin-said-to-shrink-inner-circle-as-ukraine-hawks-trump-tycoons.html

[JayH]

‘Optimists’ Continue to Deceive Themselves and Others about Putin and Thus Facilitate His Aggression, Portnikov Says

Staunton, September 5 – From the very first moments of Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, “optimists” in Russia and the West have deceived themselves and others and helped set the stage for Putin to go further, a pattern that shows no signs of abating anytime soon, according to Vitaly Portnikov.

On the Grani.ru portal, the Moscow commentator recalls that “when the first ‘little green men’ had just appeared in Crimea, the optimists assured everyone that Vladimir Putin would limit himself to the territory of the peninsula beloved but seldom visited by Russians.

“When after this, the first diversionary forces went into the Donbass, the optimists assured everyone that everything would end with the Donbass because only in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts could Yanukovich and company finance separatism and the population support it,” he writes.

“Now, when Russian forces stand several kilometers from Mariupol, a place which clearly wasn’t awaiting them, the optimists recall that this too is Donetsk oblast which needs a way out to the sea … [and] when after Mariupol, Vladimir Putin will advance further, the optimists will say that this is completely explainable since he needs a land corridor to Crimea.”

When the Kremlin leader goes even further, the Moscow commentator continues, “the optimists will say that this is completely logical” as well. When he invades the center of Ukraine, “the optimists will say that this territory was always part of the Russian Empire and the Russian president simply wants its integration into the Customs Union.”

http://www.interpretermag.com/optimists-continue-to-deceive-themselves-and-others-about-putin-and-thus-facilitate-his-aggression-portnikov-says/

[JayH]

Is this the future for Russia? Is this what the western countries are more worried about--the prospect of a Ukrainian victory unhinging all of Russia? Would anyone care?

I can see a scenario where all the downtrodden countries of the former Soviet state --plus all those in current Russia  who see themselves as separate regions/states/countries etc plus maybe China---  all joining in against the Kremlin domination/exploitation to take advantage of the distraction Ukraine could cause Russia.

On top of that-- despite Russia putting Moscow loyal people in charge of the distant military regions-- it is easily imagined them being displaced  by locals more interested in their local loyalties and siding against Moscow( a little like the dilemna facing Ukrainian military in Crimea at time of invasion).

Given that is a likely scenario--the size of the Russian military would become a fraction of the current size overnight-- morale would disappear equally fast-- all paving the way for major change in  what would be left of Russia itself.

Can it happen? Her is a very informed opinion--

Ukrainian military "and will be able to capture the whole of Russia"

Mikheil Saakashvili spoke about the prospects of the Ukrainian army, if Kiev will deliver American arms and military will have the necessary knowledge. According to the ex-president of Georgia, in this case, "they will be able to capture the whole of Russia."
Former President of Georgia spoke about the possibilities of the Ukrainian military and suggested that with proper training and modern weaponry, they are able to capture the whole of Russia.

http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1307396/

[AkMike]

Imagine the resurrection on the Kievan-Rus! Let Moscow return to being a swamp.

[Doll]

  ).

 Ukrainian military "and will be able to capture the whole of Russia"

Mikheil Saakashvili spoke about the prospects of the Ukrainian army, if Kiev will deliver American arms and military will have the necessary knowledge. According to the ex-president of Georgia, in this case, "they will be able to capture the whole of Russia."
Former President of Georgia spoke about the possibilities of the Ukrainian military and suggested that with proper training and modern weaponry, they are able to capture the whole of Russia.

http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1307396/

[Doll]

Рамзан Кадыров, глава Чечни: «И этот шут гороховый, которого ищет родная полиция, чтобы посадить в тюремную клетку, дает советы Украине, как победить Россию. А каким же шутом должен быть Порошенко, который слушает этого скомороха? Саакашвили с экрана заявляет, что „украинская армия может захватить всю Россию“… Всю Россию никому и никогда не удавалось захватить. И, тем более, не удастся, Саакашквили и Порошенко, которые безоглядно побегут к канадской границе, если в Москве один раз топнут ногой».

Кадыров также выразил уверенность, что в конечном счета Украина и Россия будут жить в мире и согласии, хотят этого Саакашвили с Порошенко или нет.

«Родился идиотом и умрет им»: Рогозин отреагировал на слова Саакашвили о захвате России

[JayH]

Imagine the resurrection on the Kievan-Rus! Let Moscow return to being a swamp.

If (when?) the situation arises that the Russians are pushed out of Ukraine itself-- and the pressure is applied to Crimea-either by removal of Russian military forcibly-or by slicing into Russia itself to cut off access to Crimea at Kerch --then I am certain that will get the attention of all the disaffected. Russia could find itself attempting to fight on numerous fronts-plus internal attacks.
You can bet then that Putin will be begging the west to help negotiate!
Me--I would treat him exactly as he has treated everyone else!

[JayH]

Kadyrov has also expressed confidence that ultimately Russia and Ukraine will live in peace and harmony,

I outlined a scenario  where and how it could happen-- but that will never be while Russia is the dominant partner--or a reckless pariah state as it is now.

[AkMike]

Don't forget that Turkey is not happy with the way that Russia has been treating the Tartars in Krym. They have the option of shutting off the access to the Black Sea from Russian shipping.

 That would make the Black Sea fleet a bunch of toys in a tub!

[JayH]

Don't forget that Turkey is not happy with the way that Russia has been treating the Tartars in Krym. They have the option of shutting off the access to the Black Sea from Russian shipping.

 That would make the Black Sea fleet a bunch of toys in a tub!

Not to many people would argue against every country or interested  party  getting stuck into the Russians any way they can if the opportunity arises.
Russia has not made many friends-either externally or internally - so it could be expected that many would jump at the chance to trat Russia the same way they have been in the habit of treating others !!

[Steamer]

Ukrainian military "and will be able to capture the whole of Russia"

Sounds like he's running to be mayor of Kiev. He cannot be serious.

[lordtiberius]

US weaponry is quite good.  US generals not so much. 

[JayH]

US weaponry is quite good.  US generals not so much.

\LT-- we have been here before many months ago!!  US ground forces ( except specialised) would not be needed. That seems to be a consensus. Perhaps EU countries could assist in Ukraine itself -- some are busting to fight the Russians.
What the article said-- if US weaponry is made available-it will change the balance.
As it is now--the biggest personal loss of Ukraine is as a result of artillery fire-- something that the US has the technology to change.That is clearly a defensive weapon by definition.
If you look at the arsenal of weaponry technology the US has--relatively simple things that could be defined as "defensive:" would tip the scales in Ukraine's favour---- note-- that is as the war is now being fought-- any escalation would need more.

[Doll]

Sounds like he's running to be mayor of Kiev. He cannot be serious.

then Kiev will have another idiot (mayor)

[AkMike]

then Kiev will have another idiot (mayor)

 But 4X better than your midget.. 

[Doll]

But 4X better than your midget.. 

Что русскому хорошо, то немцу смерть 
(one man's meat is another man's poison)

[lordtiberius]

\LT-- we have been here before many months ago!!  US ground forces ( except specialised) would not be needed. That seems to be a consensus. Perhaps EU countries could assist in Ukraine itself -- some are busting to fight the Russians.
What the article said-- if US weaponry is made available-it will change the balance.
As it is now--the biggest personal loss of Ukraine is as a result of artillery fire-- something that the US has the technology to change.That is clearly a defensive weapon by definition.
If you look at the arsenal of weaponry technology the US has--relatively simple things that could be defined as "defensive:" would tip the scales in Ukraine's favour---- note-- that is as the war is now being fought-- any escalation would need more.

Ahem.  Yeah.  I am aware of US defensive technology.  And no where in that post did I say US boots on the ground.  Would not YOU agree some train up would be required?

The Kiev General Staff needs reform.  I am not the ONLY one saying this.  The US trains officers up the Battalion Command fairly well.  US Generals perform poorly.  Ask WSJ reporter and author Thomas J. Ricks:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_E._Ricks_%28journalist%29

[fathertime]

If (when?) the situation arises that the Russians are pushed out of Ukraine itself-- and the pressure is applied to Crimea-either by removal of Russian military forcibly-or by slicing into Russia itself to cut off access to Crimea at Kerch --then I am certain that will get the attention of all the disaffected. Russia could find itself attempting to fight on numerous fronts-plus internal attacks.
You can bet then that Putin will be begging the west to help negotiate!
Me--I would treat him exactly as he has treated everyone else!

These posts about pushing Russia out of Crimea and back into Russia and even capturing Russia itself are strange fantasies...it isn't going to come to fruition...It is far more likely that in the end Russia will have more territory that it directly controls. 


Fathertime! 

[lordtiberius]

And your Russian cheer leading is not strange?