RUSSIA-The Future 2015 & on

[JayH]

Are you saying Putin is backing off Ukraine and returning Crimea? If so, sanctions are working. Contrary what you post here, I see a lot of the opposite happening.

I presume you are being faceitous?
Read between the lines--not invent something I did not say.
Sanctions are applying pressure-- we have not YET seen the result -time will tell.

[lordtiberius]

Billy, what do you suggest Ukraine do?

[lordtiberius]

Not quite yet-- events in Ukraine can accelerate what happens in Moscow.

EG-- a substantial military setback in Ukraine would shake Moscow--they are still in the delusional stage that they are in control of the overall situation.

This is where Ukraine holding their ground-- or perhaps making progress becomes very important-the longer time that Ukraine is able to exert pressure and tie up Russian resources in Ukraine-the more the balance will shift to Ukraine   being able to control it's own destiny.
In time--the affect of the Sanctions and other economic measures will hurt Russia and Russians to the point they start asking questions.

The propaganda lies of the Kremlin have a life--one way or another the reality will creep thru to Russians.
Even today on forum--Brass posted some info that I think is a pre-cursor by Putin & cronies to unleash the thugs on any sense of people power having any say in a Russian future.

More likely-- is  a palace coup type scenario-- which will be no certainty that a "new" direction would be taken.In fact--it could result in more extreme stance in Moscow.

That is a major reason I have advocated the "west" in general needs to understand the potential volatility in the region-- and how fast events could move-- so being prepared to deal with the possibility of having to use maximum force needs to be pre-considered and ready.

Another point here-- if the "west" backs Ukraine up to the required degree(to beat Russia and regain all Ukrainian territory) then a larger confrontation may be avoided-- Russia would start to believe the west is serious and will fight. As it is--Putin is not having his bluffs called--they need to be called and the ante raised.

To 'beat' Russia in all of this-- Ukraine needs the military aid already discussed(  Air support to control the air,intelligence,equipment,weapons& training,logistics)  plus  the economic aid to seed new economic strategies to grow the economy into viability.

 A free,democratic,prospering Ukraine  will kill Russia more than any other factor- the world can help itself by helping Ukraine~~

So you do not think any opposition force in Russia will tip the balance?

[JayH]

So you do not think any opposition force in Russia will tip the balance?

Internal reform in Russia is a long way off as it stands today.
But-- as we saw in Ukraine last year events can move at incredible pace  once the wick is found-let alone lit!
I don't think they have enough people looking for that wick yet.

[JayH]

Billy, what do you suggest Ukraine do?

 


That is what a few here think Ukraine should do . And it is not mooning!!

[BillyB]

Read between the lines--not invent something I did not say.
Sanctions are applying pressure-- we have not YET seen the result -time will tell.

You said sanctions are working. They are pissing Putin off more than applying pressure to back off. The results so far is Putin feels a need to increase military spending by 30% this year and relocate his forces towards the west. I have a funny feeling Putin is lying to his people by giving out conservative numbers. He may be increasing military spending by 100%. He can't piss off his citizens yet. He may need them for war.

Billy, what do you suggest Ukraine do?

They can't do it alone so they need to keep lobbying for help from the West.

[lordtiberius]

And what exactly do you suggest the West do?

[JayH]

You said sanctions are working. They are pissing Putin off more than applying pressure to back off. The results so far is Putin feels a need to increase military spending by 30% this year and relocate his forces towards the west. I have a funny feeling Putin is lying to his people by giving out conservative numbers. He may be increasing military spending by 100%. He can't piss off his citizens yet. He may need them for war.

He will not have the tram fare to send his army from one end of Moscow to the other if he keeps going as he is.

[fathertime]

You said sanctions are working. They are pissing Putin off more than applying pressure to back off. 

All you have to do is look at the ACTIONS of Putin and Russia....they are not going to get pushed out of Ukraine.... the sanctions haven't stopped them and China supports them so they won't ever be crushed......What I do think is that the response Obama is helping coordinate will make Russia think very hard about going much farther than he already has....If I were a general that got to make decisions (like JayH  ) I'd couple the sanctions with some real military strength along the NEW borders of Ukraine and neighboring states to make it clear that there will be a real fight if this goes much further.  Quite a portion of Ukraine appears to be lost...regardless of the cost to Russia. 
Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

I remember there was a time FT had influence.  I thought he cared about human life.  Some time after the Crimean referendum, the mask came off and exposed the anti-American hate naked to the world.  There is nothing America can do to atone for its "transgressions.". All who stand with America must also pay.

[fathertime]

I remember there was a time FT had influence.  I thought he cared about human life.  Some time after the Crimean referendum, the mask came off and exposed the anti-American hate naked to the world.  There is nothing America can do to atone for its "transgressions.". All who stand with America must also pay.

If you 'care' so much for human life you should be doing something!  I care about my people here in the states...Go save the world if you want...and do it in YOUR name!


America has had some transgressions..clearly....but this particular crisis is about Russia and Ukraine.  We don't need to be front and center...we don't need to help escalate it....in the end hopefully both of those nations can get enough to walk away and live with it.


Fathertime!   

[JayH]

Reading comments here in thread-- guys that post against common sense represent the 3% of dumb opinions.
Article here is close to the 97% of common sense conclusions

Taming Putin



The Christmas and New Year holidays are usually a time when mankind renews its faith in peace on earth and goodwill toward men, but they seem to have had the opposite effect on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

   Putin started 2015 by escalating his war against Ukraine in the eastern Donbas. The four hotspots continue to be Mariupol, the Donetsk airport, the Debaltseve area and Shchastiya.

Adding to the thousands of innocent lives lost he already bears responsibility for, Putin contributed 12 more victims when Kremlin-backed separatists fired a Grad missile and struck a civilian passenger minibus loaded mainly with pensioners. Putin’s proxies are on the offensive once again in the Donbas, taking more territory as they are aided by Russian troops and stocks of Russian weapons moving over the porous border between Ukraine and Russia.

After the Jan. 10 report of German investigative group CORRECT!V, it is increasingly clear that the 298 deaths aboard Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 represent more blood on Russian hands. The group put together a convincing case that Russian troops fired the Buk missile that downed the plane in July.

Yet the Kremlin continues to deny and obfuscate MH17 crimes. In another show of duplicity, it tries to back out of diplomatic commitments to resolve the conflict in east Ukraine made in Minsk in September.

Fortunately, more Western leaders are recognizing Putin for who he is: a rogue, irrational dictator who continues to inflict harm on his own people and destabilize the world to serve his narrow interests.

Even more importantly, Putin is now harvesting the rotten fruit of his corrupt labor. He is being undermined by the economy that the Russian elite have plundered for so long. The sharp drop in oil prices since June – from $115 a barrel to under $50 – is eating away at the fossil fuel fountain that has nourished Putin until now. Western nations must take this opportunity to turn the system on its head and never again become dependent on tyrants like Putin. Governments should add to their stockpiles of strategic reserves, tax oil and gas more heavily and invest in alternative energy and emergy conservation, instead of frittering away the bonanza on more consumer spending.

It is heartening that Germany’s Angela Merkel has taken on the challenge of keeping the European Union in line, upholding sanctions against Putin until he leaves Ukraine alone and fully implements the Minsk peace accords. In doing so, she is reining in the frequently naive European friends of Putin, who continue to try to shove Ukraine – and Putin’s brazen crimes – off the agenda in the fear their economies will suffer too. The EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, was the latest to come up with a rationale for normalizing relations with Russia: that the West needs his cooperation on Syria, North Korea and Iran. Baloney. Putin is on the wrong side and supporting the wrong actors in all of those countries and conflicts.

Then there are those misguided politicians who worry that destablizing Putin will make him more dangerous and that the West should try to keep the Kremlin autocrat in power because his successor might be worse.

Nonsense. The world, including Russia, will be a better place once Putin leaves the stage. His ability to kill and destablize is being constrained only by his current economic weakness, which the West should encourage. Throughout history, it’s been only economic and political blows that have made Kremlin leaders more civilized and open to cooperating with the outside world – from Peter the Great’s overtures to the West, to Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika in response to the collapsing Soviet Union, to Boris Yeltsin’s cooperative stance in world affairs when post-Soviet Russia was at its lowest economic ebb.

Of course, it is up to the Russian people to determine why, when the nation gets a measure of economic strength, its leaders in the Kremlin squander it by going to war with the democratic world, killing people, enriching a coterie of insiders and crushing human rights at home.

But there is no mistaking that the state of democracy in most of the former Soviet Union, including Russia, is weaker than in most nations of the world. In South Asia, India and even Pakistan routinely change leaders when their people are given the chance at the ballot box. A recent change in power in Sri Lanka underscores the absence of any checks and balances in Russia. The increasingly autocratic and corrupt Sri Lankan leader of 10 years, Mahinda Rajapaksa, was so confident of his re-election to another six-year term that he called for elections two years early. He was promptly voted out of office on Jan. 8 with election commissions, police and other government institutions ensuring that the people’s will prevailed.

While Russians may puzzle the reasons for their unhappy fate and their inability to vote out Putin, events in recent weeks have shown more clearly that the West is absolutely on the right track by increasing the pressure – especially economic pressure – on Putin to constrain him from inflicting more damage on Ukraine and stirring up more global trouble.

Ukraine can still snatch defeat out of this coming victory. To prevail, Ukraine will have to speed up a genuine anti-corruption drive with daily successes for the world to see. It will continue to have to court Western democracies counted on to fill a $15 billion financing gap. It needs to prove to these leaders that Ukraine deserves financial and lethal military assistance.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/editorial/taming-putin-377513.html

[AC]

That is what a few here think Ukraine should do . And it is not mooning!!

Because anyone who tells the truth about what they are up against is a zero like you.   

[JayH]

Because anyone who tells the truth about what they are up against is a zero like you.   

NO AC--that is not what you and others are in the habit of doing at all--your comment is again a typical misrepresentation-- the "truth" mm certainly not what you do--you are prepared to create a lie--repeat lies,falsely attempt to attribute what was said-- so no-- you are not a purveyor of truths.
Your persistent trolling is noted.

[JayH]

If you 'care' so much for human life you should be doing something!  I care about my people here in the states...Go save the world if you want...and do it in YOUR name!


America has had some transgressions..clearly....but this particular crisis is about Russia and Ukraine.  We don't need to be front and center...we don't need to help escalate it....in the end hopefully both of those nations can get enough to walk away and live with it.


Fathertime!

Two wrongs do not make a right--regardless.
There is no justification for Russia's actions.None of this about the USA or it's actions.
btw-- you were telling us that Russia had no asperations beyond Crimea and if we left them alone that would be the end of it-- you vehemently rationalised that invasion -- how wrong could you have been? No reply required!

[AC]

Your persistent trolling is noted.

No doubt anyone who calls you on your BS is a troll.  If you had been born in Russia, grew up there and spoke perfect Russian, guess what Jay?  You would be even more of a pro-Putin blowhard then some of the foul Russians who frequently post on social media sites (and allegedly get paid for it).  And why?  Because it's who you really are -- a guy who is incapable of any real analysis based on logic.  Go ahead and blow some more hot air; it's all you do lately.

[fathertime]

There is no justification for Russia's actions.None of this about the USA or it's actions.
btw-- you were telling us that Russia had no asperations beyond Crimea and if we left them alone that would be the end of it-- you vehemently rationalised that invasion -- how wrong could you have been? No reply required!

Lets see that quote in the context of the discussion taking place at the time to see what was said in response to which comment....regardless did we 'leave them alone'?  Not exactly....all bets are off, since the "IF" never was in play.   


 I seem to recall General JayH demanding US troops on the ground shooting at Russians, all from your safe little nest alone in Australia, but those demands have ceased now! 


Fathertime! 

[AC]

I seem to recall General JayH demanding US troops on the ground shooting at Russians, all from your safe little nest alone in Australia, but those demands have ceased now! 

Sums it up quite properly.  After all it's not his life he's putting at risk of life and limb, it's somebody else's.  American young men have spilt enough blood in the past decade, enough is enough.  And this from a guy who never served and a panty-waist pacifist type who throws a fit every time Americans express their right to bear arms in the defense of home and property.

Quite easy to be a blow-hard claiming that even if Nukes happen Sevastopol and Crimea can be reclaimed.  Thankfully Poroshenko has some real Generals in his employ and he seems a very thoughtful and intelligent as well as determined man. 

[JayH]

Lets see that quote in the context of the discussion taking place at the time to see what was said in response to which comment....regardless did we 'leave them alone'?  Not exactly....all bets are off, since the "IF" never was in play.   


 I seem to recall General JayH demanding US troops on the ground shooting at Russians, all from your safe little nest alone in Australia, but those demands have ceased now! 


Fathertime!

I think you will find I have said exactly the opposite all along--in fact--LT got upset with me when I said they were not required and Ukrainian ground forces could do the job required. The exception was if combined special forces could be used-- so NO-- I did not demand USground troops.
Really--it is a waste of space correcting you 2 and your attempts to attribute things never said.

btw-- I spent more than half the year in Ukraine in 2014-- how many days did you and AC spend there -that would be 0/ZERO/NIL -correct?
You know nothing about me-- all you do is invent lies in the hope it sticks-and some fools pick up on the falsehoods.

[JayH]

Lets see that quote in the context of the discussion taking place at the time to see what was said in response to which comment....regardless did we 'leave them alone'?  Not exactly....all bets are off, since the "IF" never was in play.   


 I seem to recall General JayH demanding US troops on the ground shooting at Russians, all from your safe little nest alone in Australia, but those demands have ceased now! 


Fathertime!

Countless forum words have been wasted in your rationalising Russian behaviour.
Are you denying that you said something to the affect-
" Russia has no asperations beyond the Crimea" ---  "that if left alone they would be satisfied with that"--- you said it.
Now you say-- leave the Donbas to the Russians and that will finish it !!
Not exactly a great assessment back then was it? Equally flawed now.

[AC]

I think you will find I have said exactly the opposite all along--in fact--LT got upset with me when I said they were not required and Ukrainian ground forces could do the job required. The exception was if combined special forces could be used-- so NO-- I did not demand USground troops.

Special Forces fight on the ground.  You can't insert them in there without air support either.  Send US or NATO aircraft in to support these guys, and you are giving Putin impetus to start WWIII.  I know it's really difficult for you to comprehend some simple things. 

Weapons?  Yes absolutely.  Trainers?  Better keep them way over in W. Ukraine, away from the theater.

[fathertime]

Countless forum words have been wasted in your rationalising Russian behaviour.
Are you denying that you said something to the affect-
" Russia has no asperations beyond the Crimea" ---  "that if left alone they would be satisfied with that"--- you said it.
Now you say-- leave the Donbas to the Russians and that will finish it !!
Not exactly a great assessment back then was it? Equally flawed now.

All you had to do was pull the quote in context...but you haven't been able to do it?  I can't discuss 'something to the effect'...so until you pull the quote in the context of the discussion there isn't much for me to comment on.   

I think you will find I have said exactly the opposite all along--in fact--LT got upset with me when I said they were not required and Ukrainian ground forces could do the job required. The exception was if combined special forces could be used-- so NO-- I did not demand USground troops.
Really--it is a waste of space correcting you 2 and your attempts to attribute things never said.

btw-- I spent more than half the year in Ukraine in 2014-- how many days did you and AC spend there -that would be 0/ZERO/NIL -correct?
You know nothing about me-- all you do is invent lies in the hope it sticks-and some fools pick up on the falsehoods.

I don't find your 'credentials' very important as it pertains to this discussion, but it is funny that you feel the need to tout yourself.  You demanded US involvement, and that would have led to much more US involvement....funny that you can't admit what your screwy ideas were and are currently.   All the while wearing your General cap safely tucked away in your little electric chair alone...jabbering on about misleading stories and wet dreams.    [size=78%]  [/size]


Fathertime!   

[AC]

Maybe he's the Aussie version of Jaymes Bond.  Just balding and a bit heavy round the middle.

 

[JayH]

AC & FT -collectively you have attempted to misconstrue many things I have said-- as well as invent lies--how childish and petty can anyone possibly be.
Following me around the forum in numerous threads  is trolling--repeating non-facts on personal issues is simply dishonest-neither of you know anything about me--yet you still have the temerity to write as if you do-- can you not see how ridiculous you are?

Deliberateely nit picking posts and repeating OUT OF CONTEXT is a deliberate attempt to ridicule--it is a lying in the worst sense of the word. Incredibly stupid pair of individuals.

Funny how sensitive you are on some topics--like your collective lack of exposure to Ukraine and the FSU overall--yet here you are attempting to hand out advice --like I said --incredibly stupid pair of individuals.

[lordtiberius]

Maybe he's the Aussie version of Jaymes Bond.  Just balding and a bit heavy round the middle.

 

Hilarious.  I bet you are fun at parties.