RUSSIA-The Future 2015 & on

[lordtiberius]

You come to me if you want to find out.

Time and place?

[LiveFromUkraine]

Time and place?

We can meet out in Detroit, anytime.  Shoot me a pm with a copy of your flight ticket so I know you will be there.

[fathertime]

Whatever dude. . . you cannot answer simple questions about your own positions.  So play the victim card while you attack others.  Very Russian of you . . .

This is not a debate anymore. It's a Novorossiya name calling sesh.  Ask moderators split off this thread.  Warnings to usual Novorossiya suspects warranted.

I've been as kind to you as I know how to be so I don't know why you are claiming that I attacked you....and I don't feel like a victim...I get a chuckle out of your silliness, although you don't seem capable of taking the conversations in productive directions like others do ...I'm happy enough to get my viewpoint out there for better or worse.
Fathertime!   

[JayH]

Is this the future for Russia? Is this what the western countries are more worried about--the prospect of a Ukrainian victory unhinging all of Russia? Would anyone care?

I can see a scenario where all the downtrodden countries of the former Soviet state --plus all those in current Russia  who see themselves as separate regions/states/countries etc plus maybe China---  all joining in against the Kremlin domination/exploitation to take advantage of the distraction Ukraine could cause Russia.

On top of that-- despite Russia putting Moscow loyal people in charge of the distant military regions-- it is easily imagined them being displaced  by locals more interested in their local loyalties and siding against Moscow( a little like the dilemna facing Ukrainian military in Crimea at time of invasion).

Given that is a likely scenario--the size of the Russian military would become a fraction of the current size overnight-- morale would disappear equally fast-- all paving the way for major change in  what would be left of Russia itself.

Can it happen? Her is a very informed opinion--

Ukrainian military "and will be able to capture the whole of Russia"

I posed a question in thread earlier--now Obama has said almost the same thing--

Obama says must be certain lethal aid to Ukraine would be used properly
"Can we be certain that any lethal aid that we provide Ukraine is used properly, doesn't fall into the wrong hands, does not lead to over-aggressive actions that can't be sustained by the Ukrainians? What kinds of reactions does it prompt, not simply from the separatists but from the Russians? Those are all issues that have to be considered," he said at the White House after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-says-must-certain-lethal-aid-ukraine-used-181943996.html

[jone]

Things are getting creepy now.  AC seems to know where FT lives.  Stalker much?


Well he obviously isn't a Ukrainian General being  a supposedly Russian apologist.  Dang, AC, that is like a duh moment there.

Hey, FT made it very clear he lives in California a long, long time ago.  I also live in the People's Republic of Kalifornia.  What state do you live in LFU?

[JayH]

Not only is Ukraine's future at stake now- it is Russia and Russian actions that are going to be bought to account.
The president's initial belief was that Putin would stop at Crimea. Then that belief expanded to enclaves and a hybrid war in parts of eastern Ukraine together with the removal of Ukraine's accession to membership from NATO's agenda.

The imposition of sanctions have done more for President Obama's public image than curbing Putin's appetite. Unstopped militarily and emboldened, Putin took Crimea, now his sights are set on Donbas and carving an avenue through Mariupol over Ukrainian lands into Crimea, tomorrow he may desire all of Ukraine, then Estonia, Latvia, etc.


To stop Putin, you must stop him on battlefield

Ukraine is prepared to do the heavy lifting, the fighting and the dying. But Ukraine needs lethal defense supplies against Russia's sophisticated weaponry. Congress passed a bill authorizing those arms. The president himself signed it into law. One can only assume that he read it and was aware of its significance. Sure the law merely authorizes the president. But why sign the bill if you have no intention of acting. The lethal weapons are not forthcoming. No assuaging of Ukraine by Kerry or Vice President Joe Biden will do. No talk of diplomatic negotiations will solve this problem.

The only way to stop Putin is to stop him on the battlefield.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/askold-lozynskyj-to-stop-putin-you-must-stop-him-on-battlefield-380008.html

[JayH]

The US is on the verge of making the decision to help Ukraine. Russia has been on a huge disinformation campaign in an attempt to hide from the Russian people that it has already invaded Ukraine-- and in fact are the aggressor.
This mix of cynicism, self-delusion and wounded pride is particularly toxic now, with the West in disagreement on its Ukraine policy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is unwilling either to get involved militarily against Russia or to capitulate to it, so she is counseling patience as well as further economic sanctions on Russia. Her colleagues in Europe, however, are unwilling even to go that far.

Putin Can't Have the Last Laugh in Ukraine

Standoff in Ukraine


In the U.S., meanwhile, and in several ex-Soviet-bloc states in Europe, there is growing sentiment to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons in order to counter advances by Russian-supported separatists. Lavrov's delusions effectively undermine the logic of this position. If Russian President Vladimir Putin sees everything that has happened in Ukraine in the last year as part of a U.S. and NATO plot against Russia, then a U.S. or NATO arms program is unlikely to cause him to rethink either his position or his strategy.

That might happen if Putin believed the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization were ready to do whatever it takes to defeat him in Ukraine. But he knows they aren’t.

Part of the problem is that the West is deluding itself, too -- about the level of commitment necessary to drive Russia out of Ukraine. A failure to recognize this could result in the worst of all worlds: a Russian invasion that leaves Ukraine dismembered and deep fissures both within the EU and between the EU and the U.S.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-08/lavrov-speech-shows-need-for-europe-to-unify-against-putin

[JayH]

Many interesting stories coming out of Ukraine now. Here is another one about  a guy who does have an agenda-- he wants Putin dead!! The big difference he is doing something towards achieving it !!
Of particular interest-he is Chechen and believer in Chechnya. Hopefully he can survive this war and go on to assist Chechnya to self determination !
Yes--so much for Russia to look forward to -- dissent and uprising in every downtrodden part of the old Soviet state.A year ago--I predicted that the invasion of the Crimea would lead to the break up of Russia as we have known it-- I can smell that prediction coming to reality now.

Once the Ukrainians start to push Russia out of Ukraine-- that will be the catalyst to cause havoc in Russia !!

Adam Osmayev: Cotswolds public schoolboy turned Ukraine militia commander
Raised at a prestigious Gloucestershire boarding school, Adam Osmayev has now become a leading figure in the fierce battle for eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve.
The battle for Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine has seen Osmayev, a native Chechen, and the men of his Dzhokar Dudayev Battalion engaged in fierce firefights and tank bombardments across the city’s neighbourhoods, railway
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11397879/Adam-Osmayev-Cotswolds-public-schoolboy-turned-Ukraine-rebel-commander.html

[JayH]

As I wrote previously-there is now consensus that Ukraine should be helped. What is yet to be decided is the extent and the mechanics of how. In particular--it is the technology of the US that is needed- so while compatible Soviet style equipment is better than nothing--it is not what will tip the balance in Ukraine's favour.
The tech available to US is significantly superior-- and will save Ukrainian lives in large numbers.
A key part of this is not to muck around-- give them the capability and they can clean the Russians out fast.
Of note-- some namby pamby weak knees that talk of only allowing Ukraine to hold the ground they have- they still want the Ukrainians fighting with one hand tied behind their backs !!
Once the political decisions is made--give the parameters to the military people and allow them to get the right equipment in place-allow them to use their expertise.

US considers military help for Kiev

US state department spokeswoman Jan Psaki said: “Our focus remains on a political and diplomatic solution. I don’t think anybody wants to get in a proxy war with Russia. And that is not the objective, our objective here is to change the behavior of Russia.”

Meanwhile, eight senior American defence experts released a report on Monday calling for the US to provide Ukraine with $1bn in military assistance as soon as possible and $1bn more in both the fiscal year of 2016 and 2017. The group also called for fellow Nato members to provide equipment and weapons to Ukraine, especially those who have have former Soviet equipment that would be compatible with Ukraine’s current arms stock.

The report was written by people including Michele Flournoy, the former under secretary of defence who took herself out of the running to replace outgoing defence secretary Chuck Hagel, and James Stavridis, who served as the top Nato military commander.

The group advised the US to help create a defense situation that, combined with existing economic sanctions, Russia would consider too costly to pursue. The group also said that it does not at this time support an on-the-ground US or Nato presence.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/02/ukraine-us-considers-miltary-help-kiev-separatists-plan-mobilise-army

[lordtiberius]

I've been as kind to you as I know how to be so I don't know why you are claiming that I attacked you....and I don't feel like a victim...I get a chuckle out of your silliness, although you don't seem capable of taking the conversations in productive directions like others do ...I'm happy enough to get my viewpoint out there for better or worse.
Fathertime!   

You cannot answer basic questions about my own view on issues that are the heart of this conflict.  You obfuscate and mock others while people die everyday in this war and when people are upset by this you mock them.  That to me, SEEMS strange, callous and downright barbaric.  You have no connection to the people dying ON BOTH SIDES and yet you defend a nuclear blackmailer who will kill you and us should his throne in Moscow gets jeopardized by the mafiasos he surrounded himself with.

[lordtiberius]

Jay, at the end of the day Obama agreed with Merkel.  Until the weapons are in the hands of the line doggies, this is hash tag diplomacy

[JayH]

Jay, at the end of the day Obama agreed with Merkel.  Until the weapons are in the hands of the line doggies, this is hash tag diplomacy

Piece by piece the stars are aligning!!  As I said in another thread--It is very soon going to be a question of what aid--- not if.
And more again as Canada makes its position clear--

Stephen Harper won’t rule out sending lethal weapons for Ukraine
OTTAWA—Prime Minister Stephen Harper declined to rule out supplying lethal military aid to Ukraine if diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in the eastern part of that country fail.
“We’ll look at all options,” Harper said, when asked if Canada would be in favour of a shift in aid to Ukraine from humanitarian and to lethal defensive weapons.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/02/09/stephen-harper-wont-rule-out-sending-lethal-weapons-for-ukraine.html

[AkMike]

A little birdie landed on my shoulder and whispered in my ear that the Rubble is slated to plunge soon, and to expect 150/200 per dollar by spring. 


 There are forces greater than Putin at work for peace.

[JayH]

Even more for Russians to look forward to in 2015!  What a dose of reality they are going to get!!


Oil output still growing, as Citi predicts a drop to $20 US a barrel

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-output-still-growing-as-citi-predicts-a-drop-to-20-us-a-barrel-1.2950573

[JayH]

How nutty are some of these Russians> ? Really--with morons like this being "quoted" it is obvious enough they will take Russia down a path to nowhere.

Russian official: We could help Iran attack Saudi Arabia if US arms Ukraine
Despite President Obama’s claim on Monday that he has not yet made a decision about supplying defensive weapons to the Ukrainian army, which is battling Russia-backed separatists who want an independent region within that country, the Russian media is full of predictions. They’re warning of the terrible impact further U.S. involvement in the conflict might have.

Quoting a member of the Russian Defense Ministry's public advisory board who requested anonymity, The Moscow Times reported Monday that if the U.S. supplied arms to Ukraine, it would be viewed as an act of war
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-official-we-could-help-iran-attack-saudi-arabia-if-us-arms-ukraine-2015-2?IR=T

[fathertime]

A little birdie landed on my shoulder and whispered in my ear that the Rubble is slated to plunge soon, and to expect 150/200 per dollar by spring. 


 There are forces greater than Putin at work for peace.

Even more for Russians to look forward to in 2015!  What a dose of reality they are going to get!!


Oil output still growing, as Citi predicts a drop to $20 US a barrel

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-output-still-growing-as-citi-predicts-a-drop-to-20-us-a-barrel-1.2950573

Neither of things have happened nor are they likely...but whatever gets you guys through the night.  If this crisis finds an end in a manner like Billyb is proposing the Russian ruble will will probably gain a lot of value for those that invested in it.

Price of oil 20 per barrel....if we hit the mother of all recessions possibly...barring that very very doubtful.






Fathertime! 

[AkMike]

In case you missed it those are predictions.  . Have patience the hammer is getting ready to drop on Russia.

[JayH]

More  people thinking it is not so hard to see a solution!


Obama And Merkel Are Clueless About Putin: Yet It's So Simple


Apparently a strategic consensus now emerges that Ukraine cannot win the struggle against Moscow, not even on its own territory.  The Russkies cannot be beat. Therefore Ukraine should receive no arms. That’s the logic.

"Russian citizens must be made to see that their leader’s adventurism costs them not only their liberties and prosperity, but even their traditional dominance over subject peoples. At the moment, they’re persuaded that Putin embodies their sense of pride. And they’ve had to sacrifice too little for that delusion. In Ukraine begins the transformation, if we only have the resolve."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2015/02/10/obama-and-merkel-are-clueless-about-putin-yet-its-so-simple/

[BillyB]

Russian official: We could help Iran attack Saudi Arabia if US arms Ukraine

Russians made an arms deal with Iran months ago. I've previously stated that Russia can even up the economic warfare and deflect our attention from Ukraine by causing problems in the Middle East. This will put real hurt on the West.  Price of oil will go up and the ruble will gain strength since Russia's economy is somewhat tied to the price of oil. Iran will only take a chance like that if Russia backs them to the very end. They don't want to be used and abandoned when we come after them.

If this crisis finds an end in a manner like Billyb is proposing the Russian ruble will will probably gain a lot of value for those that invested in it.

It looks more and more like the West is very motivated to find a diplomatic solution. That means they are willing to negotiate with bribe Putin into ending this crisis. Putin is already one of the richest men on earth. He's got enough money so money will not be the biggest motivating factor in getting him to settle. He really wants to see his nation, Russia, come out smelling like roses. If he agrees to a deal with the West, those investing in rubles now will be rich and his people will have the last laugh.

[JayH]

As usual BB you are marching to your imaginary drum-- do you not read current material?

[BillyB]

As usual BB you are marching to your imaginary drum-- do you not read current material?

My imaginary drum has a name. It's called "reality". I don't read the Ukrainian propaganda you've provided. Months ago you kept saying and providing articles Ukraine was dominating fights. I said Russia is winning. I didn't like that fact but that's reality. Here we are today with the West considering splitting up Ukraine and appeasing Putin.

[fathertime]

Obama And Merkel Are Clueless About Putin: Yet It's So Simple


 

While the article makes some good points, I disagree with those that say how it is 'so simple'...It appears clear to me that Russia is not going to stand idly by and allow the West to escalate without further escalating in a way that brings death upon massive numbers of people.  There are some wildcards in respect to what type of havoc will be raised in the middle east and possibly elsewhere. As one of many last resorts, Putin could still arm his own allies with nuclear weapons and the world would have to contend with a much stronger possibility of bombs falling in the future.  That is a very undesirable outcome and has to avoided.   It is not simple, but there can be a solution that leaves both sides with enough that they can move on....it is possible, because if it wasn't we would have already armed Ukraine months ago. 

EDIT:  I retract the certainty of the final comment, as the other possibility is that Western nations have already decided that throwing Ukraine under the bus is the lessor of two evils. 
Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

Piece by piece the stars are aligning!!  As I said in another thread--It is very soon going to be a question of what aid--- not if.
And more again as Canada makes its position clear--

Stephen Harper won’t rule out sending lethal weapons for Ukraine
OTTAWA—Prime Minister Stephen Harper declined to rule out supplying lethal military aid to Ukraine if diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in the eastern part of that country fail.
“We’ll look at all options,” Harper said, when asked if Canada would be in favour of a shift in aid to Ukraine from humanitarian and to lethal defensive weapons.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/02/09/stephen-harper-wont-rule-out-sending-lethal-weapons-for-ukraine.html

Brass and Boe have educated their Southern Canadian friend of Canadian Constitutional law, eh?  But this man comes to mind;



So I don't know what to believe.

Obama is doing what he does best.  Nothing.

Bit by bit you say:

At least 12 killed in latest Ukraine fighting
http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/at-least-12-killed-in-latest-ukraine-fighting-115021000659_1.html

Debaltseve surrounded, surprise strike hammers Ukrainian military headquarters at Kramatorsk
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/debaltseve-surrounded-surprise-strike-hammers-ukrainian-military-headquarters-at-kramatorsk-video-380197.html

Some pro-Ukrainians disparage Easterners living in the occupied zones as poor, old, sick or willing participants.  I call them hostages.  And the words of Senator John McCain echo in my ears:



"Does she just want to stand by and watch how a European country, the first time since the second world war gets trampled?".


"If you look at it, you would think that they are completely clueless or that they do not care that the people in Ukraine are being butchered"

[JayH]

Further to the point I made upthread about a consensus now existing that Ukraine should be helped-- another source repeating that point !

Quoting
"In the past few days there has been an extensive discussion in the US about assisting Ukraine with defense weapons, and a consensus was formed in the expert community that this is high time for the US to do so.  This conclusion is confirmed in the report “Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do”

http://strataforum.org/the-budapest-memorandum-revisited/


The report is informed by and summarizes discussions in January with senior NATO officials in Brussels and senior Ukrainian civilian and military officials in Kyiv and at the Ukrainian “anti-terror operation” headquarters in Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine.

Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do

"Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do" is a project of The Brookings Institution, The Atlantic Council, and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which argues for greater U.S. leadership in ending the conflict in Ukraine and Russian involvement in the region. The report, authored by eight former senior U.S. diplomatic and military officials, urges the United States and NATO to bolster Ukraine’s defense and deter further Russian aggression by providing military assistance to Ukraine—including lethal defensive assistance.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2015/02/ukraine-independence-russian-aggression

[JayH]

Meanwhile the problems in the Russian economy continues the downward spiral.

In order to avoid a prolonged and "dramatic" slowdown, Siluanov said the government needed to get on with "long-awaited" reforms, including pension and social welfare reform, and should shift from a commodity-driven economy to a focus on manufacturing.
Russia in 'dire straits' and needs reform: FinMin

"Radical" changes in the global economy have left Russia in "dire straits," and it should seize the moment to reform, the country's finance minister has told CNBC.

Speaking on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Istanbul, Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said: "We all note that lots of changes are happening, and these change are radical and rapid."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102415453#.