Economic war

[Steamer]

My girl is from Belarus, she says most Belarusians don't trust Putin at all. They believe he will eventually turn his attention to them.

Most Americans don't trust Obama, so what?

[lordtiberius]

You can say that about anything.  Of course, life was so much simpler in the Old Soviet days.

[JayH]

My girl is from Belarus, she says most Belarusians don't trust Putin at all. They believe he will eventually turn his attention to them.

Gradually other countries are expressing concern over Russian aggression-they know if Putin gets his way in Ukraine it would only be a matter of when--not if !!

Belarus will not pass through its territory alien troops to Ukraine - Ambassador

Belarus will never be able to aggression, never allow other countries to enter the territory of its troops on the territory of Ukraine[

This was stated by the Ambassador of Belarus to Ukraine Valentin Velichko in an interview, the text of which is published on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, reports Espreso.TV referring to "Radio Liberty" .

"We support Ukraine as an integral unitary state under the current Constitution, which excludes federalization. The Government of Belarus, as well as representatives of the Embassy never said the new government, the old regime that it changed - it is very bad, right or wrong choice of the people. This internal affair of the Ukrainian people. That is why we are building bilateral relations, based on high sense of mutual respect, "- said Velichko.

[JayH]

Economic war against Russia is running out of gas. The West isn't as united anymore and 7 nations are wanting to end the sanctions against Russia. Most likely after their meeting, the sanctions will soften. Putin will be happy to see the West isn't as united as they'd like him to believe.


http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/579370/20150116/russia-uk-sanctions-eu.htm#.VLmCobk5CUn

BB--have you lost your marbles completely?
The sanctions are going to the next stage-- the few self centred making noises are unlikely to survive internal elections . Further--they are being pulled into line by Germany now as the next wave of upgraded sanctions comes into effect.
You keep posting crap that equals the 3% view of blind believers in Russia.

[mendeleyev]

Frankly, the Eurasian Union, and this is something Mr. Putin admits, will crumble without Ukraine.

In that "Customs Union" you have: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. The "Customs Union" tag has been officially changed to the Eurasian Economic Union.

In terms of land mass, population, resources, and economic potential (import/export/purchasing power), besides Russia, Ukraine is larger than all the others combined. Putin simply cannot put together a competitor to the EU with the likes of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. He must have Ukraine. Period.

You see several CIS neighbors who are holding out: Uzbekistan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan. For varying reasons, they've declined to join so far.

To make matters worse for Putin, Kazakhstan and Belarus are nervous--something they have clearly signaled. Their open support in recent days of Poroshenko in Kyiv is like taking a stick and jamming it up the Kremlin's backside. To be sure, in one sense they are using the Ukrainian invasion to signal their concerns to Putin, hopping that he will assure them that they will not suffer the same fate.

Reasons why some CIS states have not joined seem to echo this statement from Azerbaijan:

“By the mean of customs the economy is controlled, monopolies are created and oligarchs are kept. Thus, Azerbaijani Government is in dilemma in its foreign policy for energy security. The behaviours to the Azerbaijani immigrants in Russia in the last days, proves that, Azerbaijan has not taken any obligation towards Russia yet.” (Arastun Orujlu, East-West Research Centre)

 

[Boethius]

Not a bit.


Well it sure isn't for a lack of trying. For as long as they've been independent Ukraine has been begging the EU and NATO for membership but they don't want Ukraine. So now Ukraine is trying to convince anyone that will listen that the US and EU should pounce even harder on Russia but the only ones listening are the US, Poland and the Baltic states. EU is backing off all of this sanction business.  Soon Ukraine will find itself alone and freezing in the corner with no one willing to help.

That is simply untrue.  Ukrainians never supported NATO membership.  I have linked historic polls to prove that point.  Even Yushchenko, who did support NATO membership personally, never pushed it, because the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians never supported it.  This war, caused and funded by Russia, is the only reason Ukraine recently asked for NATO membership.

[fathertime]

BB--have you lost your marbles completely?
The sanctions are going to the next stage-- the few self centred making noises are unlikely to survive internal elections . Further--they are being pulled into line by Germany now as the next wave of upgraded sanctions comes into effect.
You keep posting crap that equals the 3% view of blind believers in Russia.

What Billyb posted was factual, and you tell him he has lost his marbles? People can see you have lost yours?   What you have been posting is utter drivel.  The fact is those 7 nations are losing interest in the sanctions, and that is hard for you to accept. 


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

It would be the same if Canada and Russia sought an economic alliance and then had talks about putting Russian bases in Canada. The US would view this as encroachment.

A sovereign nation has the right to self determination.  Even if American bases had been placed on Ukrainian soil, where was the threat to Russia?

[fathertime]

Steamer,

You just stepped on something.  I hope it didn't hurt.

 

Judging from the rest of your post, it might have been your brain he stepped on and squashed.

Neither the US nor the European Union had any discussions about placing bases or joining NATO.  As a matter of policy, Ukraine was told it COULD NOT join NATO. 

So wait, one moment you say there was no discussions, then the next sentence you say they were told they may not join.  How does that make sense?
In addition to this, what is happening in the present doesn't mean much 10, 20, 40 years from now....Russia could likely see a day where Ukraine might have joined NATO....and it seems that was unacceptable to them and their strategic interests.

The cold facts are that if Russia had played things cool instead of going off on a wild-ass tangent, things would have worked out fine for Russian interests.  There is no reason to believe that a Ukrainian government would have ceased relations with Russia simply because they wished to align themselves with their next door neighbors to the West.

Jone must have forgot what a fact is...there are no cool facts when predicting future scenarios (between nations) that never took place, and using the world "IF"...it is all HIS speculation masquerading as 'cool facts'


You plea that things would have worked out 'fine' for RUssian interests...but clearly Russia didn't believe that to be the case, and I can see why. 


Fathertime! 

[Steamer]

A sovereign nation has the right to self determination.  Even if American bases had been placed on Ukrainian soil, where was the threat to Russia?

I'm not talking about what is right or legal. It's about what any country will do when they perceive that their national interests are threatened. Actively pushing for a countries enemy to set up shop in your country is going to get a negative response especially from a country that is as paranoid about its borders and security as Russia is.

[Boethius]

Then the choice is, be part of the civilized world, or be an outlier, facing sanctions and scorn.

[jone]

I'm not talking about what is right or legal. It's about what any country will do when they perceive that their national interests are threatened. Actively pushing for a countries enemy to set up shop in your country is going to get a negative response especially from a country that is as paranoid about its borders and security as Russia is.

Whose enemy?  As of quite recently, US and NATO troops had a Russian observer at all meetings.  There was interplay, even joint exercises.  This paranoid delusion that Putin has created was highlighted by Germany when Merkel said 'he's not in his right mind'.

The simple fact is that the current Russian government has run into internal and foreign roadblocks.  Putin has no vision of how to remove them except to create a nationalistic paranoia.  Ultimately he must fail.  It will come much sooner than in Soviet times because he does not have the Soviet Satellite States / Warsaw Pact Nations around him.    Whether induced or established by market economics, his major commodity, oil, is in the toilet and he is hemorrhaging  his national reserves.

In order to create this nationalistic fever, he has regurgitated an old enemy, the US with their hated CIA.  I would be interested to see polls that show trends of positive feelings by Russians towards the US.  As recently as two years ago, as an investor contributing capital to the Russian economy, I saw continuous local and governmental support.  Now, Americans and any investments we might have there are hunted down and expunged.

I honestly don't think he has any idea how this plays out, except that if he doesn't try something like this he will be excised from power.

Most countries, when they feel threatened, will resort to diplomatic exchanges and, possibly, sanctions.  The reason everyone says Putin is living in the early 20th or even 19th century is that he resorts to military posturing and invasion.    This is not a tinpot dictator that he is dealing with.  This is a country of over 40 million people in the heart of the European continent.

Some people say he is misled by his advisers.  Others say he is desperate to hang on to power.  I say that he hasn't got a clue.  He is playing the cards in his hand and has no idea when he will be trumped.

[AC]

I'm not talking about what is right or legal. It's about what any country will do when they perceive that their national interests are threatened. Actively pushing for a countries enemy to set up shop in your country is going to get a negative response especially from a country that is as paranoid about its borders and security as Russia is.

Let's say that China made some sort of deal with Canada, per your hypothetical situation (or Russia did).  Would the USA immediately send little green men and hold a bogus referendum and annex part of Canada at gunpoint?  Absolutely not.  Would the USA then invade another section of Canada with tanks, etc and fire rockets into Canada if our mercenaries and troops were losing?  Absolutely not.

Would the USA engage in some aggressive diplomacy to try to settle the issue?  Yes.

Just a wee bit of difference between the USA a nation which carefully follows the law, and Russia a rogue nation.

[JayH]

Some people say he is misled by his advisers.  Others say he is desperate to hang on to power.  I say that he hasn't got a clue.  He is playing the cards in his hand and has no idea when he will be trumped.

All 4 are about the mark.

The quicker the world at large faces the problem Putin has created-- and WILL create the faster solutions will be found.
Attempting to appease Putin & Russia will be a huge mistake.
Taking an uncompromising stance will spell it out to the bully Russia .

[jone]

Let's say that China made some sort of deal with Canada, per your hypothetical situation (or Russia did).  Would the USA immediately send little green men and hold a bogus referendum and annex part of Canada at gunpoint?  Absolutely not.  Would the USA then invade another section of Canada with tanks, etc and fire rockets into Canada if our mercenaries and troops were losing?  Absolutely not.

Would the USA engage in some aggressive diplomacy to try to settle the issue?  Yes.

Just a wee bit of difference between the USA a nation which carefully follows the law, and Russia a rogue nation.

I was really kinda hoping we'd scrape off Vancouver Island.  No one's looking.  And we could rescue all of the English speakers.

I hope you all understand how stupid such a statement sounds.   When Russia says it about Ukraine, it scares the hell out of its neighbors.   

The US has history with Vancouver Island, too.  The original determination of the 48th parallel, if I remember correctly, was in abeyance of the area between the 48th and the 57th parallel.  In the scenario where the US gets to the 57th parallel,  VANCOUVER ISLAND WOULD BE OURS!  Now, just because we signed a Budapest Memorandum treaty with England and Canada, we don't need to honor it.   I think we could safely bypass such a treaty and station our little green men in Victoria.

[fathertime]

Let's say that China made some sort of deal with Canada, per your hypothetical situation (or Russia did).  Would the USA immediately send little green men and hold a bogus referendum and annex part of Canada at gunpoint?  Absolutely not.  Would the USA then invade another section of Canada with tanks, etc and fire rockets into Canada if our mercenaries and troops were losing?  Absolutely not.

Would the USA engage in some aggressive diplomacy to try to settle the issue?  Yes.

Just a wee bit of difference between the USA a nation which carefully follows the law, and Russia a rogue nation.

Well AC I think you brought up an interesting scenario....now if you substituted Cuba for Canada you can see what we attempted in the not so distant past, and we failed...right on the same end of the spectrum as what Russia is doing in parts East, except they appear to be having more success then we did.   


I think a big distinction between how the US and Russia would handle thing is this: We (the US) have the ability to wage aggressive diplomacy...we can often indirectly punish a country and force them to bend to our will through financial pressures....Russia on the other hand doesn't possess that ability (there economy isn't strong enough), but they do have the military strength to do so....Putting the shoe on the other foot...if Russia had the financial sway that we do, and we were unable to influence Canada with financial 'sticks and carrots''...I have little doubt we would march right jolly-well into Canada and MAKE them see the light!


Fathertime!

[Boethius]

Russia on the other hand doesn't possess that ability, but they do have the military strength to do so...

Were that true, 30 million Afghanis would be speaking Russian today.

[jone]

Did I mention a land bridge to Alaska?  Never mind.

[AC]

I was really kinda hoping we'd scrape off Vancouver Island.  No one's looking.  And we could rescue all of the English speakers.

I hope you all understand how stupid such a statement sounds.   When Russia says it about Ukraine, it scares the hell out of its neighbors.   

The US has history with Vancouver Island, too.  The original determination of the 48th parallel, if I remember correctly, was in abeyance of the area between the 48th and the 57th parallel.  In the scenario where the US gets to the 57th parallel,  VANCOUVER ISLAND WOULD BE OURS!  Now, just because we signed a Budapest Memorandum treaty with England and Canada, we don't need to honor it.   I think we could safely bypass such a treaty and station our little green men in Victoria.

        

 


(it all sounds so absurd when we the USA might plan on such a stupid thing, yet the Russkies want the whole world to believe this yarn...)

[Brasscasing]

I was really kinda hoping we'd scrape off Vancouver Island.  No one's looking.  And we could rescue all of the English speakers.

I hope you all understand how stupid such a statement sounds.   When Russia says it about Ukraine, it scares the hell out of its neighbors.   

The US has history with Vancouver Island, too.  The original determination of the 48th parallel, if I remember correctly, was in abeyance of the area between the 48th and the 57th parallel.  In the scenario where the US gets to the 57th parallel,  VANCOUVER ISLAND WOULD BE OURS!  Now, just because we signed a Budapest Memorandum treaty with England and Canada, we don't need to honor it.   I think we could safely bypass such a treaty and station our little green men in Victoria.

Where you been? There's an American invasion here in Victoria every summer!

Brass

[JayH]

Where you been? There's an American invasion here in Victoria every summer!

Brass

"Little" fat men in shorts,long socks and white shoes?

[BillyB]

BB--have you lost your marbles completely?
The sanctions are going to the next stage-- the few self centred making noises are unlikely to survive internal elections .

You focus too much into media that is one sided that you fail to understand what goes on elsewhere around the world. Just over a week ago the Prez of France, link below, called for lifting the sanctions. We've all known France has been wanting to sell Russia warships and no matter how much you want us to believe Russia is broke, they have the money to buy those ships and more.


You also heavily participate in a forum that isn't representative of the majority population of the West. Fathertime represents the majority and the majority doesn't care about Ukraine's fate. They don't identify themselves with Ukrainians as they would Canadians and the Brits. They are more interested in other issues. Once you understand reality, you can deal with reality properly. Ukraine doesn't have a super military that can beat Russia alone. If you want to do Ukraine a favor, get them sympathy by winning the hearts of the majority. Fighting with them on the internet is counterproductive to your goals.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2897281/Francois-Hollande-suggests-sanctions-Russia-lifted-says-Putin-does-not-want-annex-eastern-Ukraine-told-that.html

[jone]

Where you been? There's an American invasion here in Victoria every summer!

Brass

 

[lordtiberius]

Jone, where are the Russian people on this?

[mendeleyev]

We've all known France has been wanting to sell Russia warships and no matter how much you want us to believe Russia is broke, they have the money to buy those ships and more.

Billy, it was France who postponed the delivery of the Mistrial, and set conditions upon what must happen prior to delivery.

No, Russia does not have the money. Have you more intimate knowledge of the budget issues facing the Medvedev government? The state is in danger of exhausting the reserve funds and now the propaganda push is preparing citizens to give up social services (like pensions, for example) to modernize the military because the money is gone, and the credit is gone.

Does France want to sell warships? Hmm, does a Turk want to sell carpets?

Europe, excepting Germany (and Poland and the Baltics), would like to resume business as usual. The problem is that there will be no business as usual. The cat is out of the bag; the die is cast. Whatever happens, and I have no idea what that will be, for certain will be serious, and the world will not be the same afterward.