When George penned his article on Russia and Crimea following his brief trip to Russia earlier this year, I wrote a scathing review of his trip and work. Stratfor refused to publish my response, although it was reasoned and pointed, but not disrespectful. My respect for he and his institution plunged--especially given that he had invited the response.
I will give him this point however, and as I have little confidence in European leaders as a whole, likely it will not be long before sanctions begin to crumble.
To those leaders I propose this question, although many of them curiously seem to lack the understanding to carefully consider the options: Given that current sanctions are aimed primarily at Russian financial markets and leaders, and not directly at the Russian people themselves, what will you do if you lift those sanctions, but Mr. Putin leaves his ban on Western products, a separate issue aside from Western sanctions? Will you, Europe, have given in to the Oligarchs and Kremlin, but find yourself still shut out of the Russian marketplace simply because the Putin government has made self reliance an essential plank in framing Putin's response to the West?
The answer is obvious: The West may lift sanctions, thus helping Russian financial and business institutions, but Putin's ban on Western products is the one that has impacted the average consumer in their pocketbooks. I am not yet convinced that Europe wants to admit that when it comes to Russia there are two sets of pocketbooks. The first is the 100+ individuals who control some 35% of all wealth in Russia. That small group is the target of current Western sanctions. The other pocketbook or wallet is the rest of Russia, the average citizen. Western sanctions are not aimed at them, however the Putin ban of Western products has hit them squarely where it hurts.
Ironically, while the first small group is desperate for Western sanctions to be lifted so that their ultra wealthy lifestyles can continue unabated, the second group, hit by Putin's so-called "reverse sanctions," have swallowed whole the propaganda idea that their suffering is tied to patriotism. Sad indeed.