The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[BillyB]

The important meeting between Merkel/Hollande and Putin continues.  Everyone is tightlipped about what is being proposed.

Why are they even talking to Putin? Haven't they heard RT news? Putin is not interfering in Ukraine and has no control over what the separatists do. We keep talking to the wrong people I tell ya! No wonder we can't make progress.


It doesn't hurt Putin to make an agreement. Like other times, it'll get the West to pause and when the rebels get loaded with a new shipment of arms and hit high gear again, Putin will say he has no control over their actions.

The latest news:  Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary "said the UK would not be supplying weapons to Ukraine even if Washington decided to do so." Without Germany and UK participating in weapons deliveries, Putin will likely believe US will not go alone. 

Putin must think leaders in the West are idiots. Nice of Michael Fallon to say that before the end of negotiations and let Putin know he has less to worry about and more leverage to use on the West. Obama may not go at it alone without support from Europe. Our next president may be different. Putin better accomplish his goals before America's next election.

[Steamer]

Our next president may be different. Putin better accomplish his goals before America's next election.

Two years can be a looong time.

[viking]

Not even close to being an expert here but I have spoken to several Ukrainians in the last week ( here in NY) and all said the same thing. Expect the Ukraine to be cut into two pieces.

[BillyB]

Expect the Ukraine to be cut into two pieces.

At a minimum, that is what I expect. Putin isn't happy going into the meeting with Merkel and Hollande. If for some reason Putin agrees to half of Ukraine, he will also require the West to compensate for Russia's losses due to the sanctions. The West has a reputation for giving concessions to Iran and North Korea to curb their behavior. It's payday for Russia if Putin plays his cards right. Putin's popularity will soar among his people. Putin must have the last laugh or he's not going to agree on anything.

[viking]

I don't know about half but it seems like the lower western area. However...the people "in charge" may not necessarily bend to Putin's will. They sense power and power will corrupt them. Then Putin must send in his people ( troops) to effect total control. Lastly, can he afford to do this? Crimea has taken a large bite of his budget already. And certainly Kiev will stop just about anything  ( water, gas, electric, etc) going in there. And then, of course, will the people actually accept all this "peace".? I doubt the US or the EU will help to rebuild all that was destroyed.

[Brasscasing]

I can understand where Ukraine expats are getting the idea of Ukraine being split I've heard it here as well. However, I sincerely doubt Kiev would voluntarily go for any concessions regarding territorial boundaries. They've already stated any peace accord must respect existing borders. Having said that whatever Russia gains by force will probably remain Russia's.

I've noted in the last few hours Merkel and Hollande's great adventure is already being likened to Chamberlain's infamous "peace in our time" meeting 75+ years ago. I doubt much more will be heard from this front.

My concern is Mr. Obama may himself seize on this meeting, which produced nothing more than hopeful optimism that they could talk some more, to delay supplying the much needed weaponry under the pretense of not wanting to interfere with Merkel's diplomatic initiative.

Brass

[BillyB]

However...the people "in charge" may not necessarily bend to Putin's will.

I don't think Poroshenko wants to give up any part of Ukraine but if the West doesn't supply arms, he'd have to agree to give up some of Ukraine or risk losing it all. Ukrainians at this time have little say in how their country is carved up or if it's to exist.

Lastly, can he afford to do this? Crimea has taken a large bite of his budget already.

There are hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars worth of natural resources off the coast of Crimea. Putin will eventually make money off Crimea, ensures his naval base stays, takes away Ukraine's ability to be self dependent on natural gas and become Russia's competition. People have laughed at Putin for taking Crimea but failed to see the genius in doing so. People are also laughing at the damages sanctions have caused on Russia's economy. IF Putin is open to ending this crisis, he will ask the West to compensate for damages to Russia's economy in exchange for him not going to war. This is going to get expensive for the West no matter how this turns out unless the West pulls out now and leave Ukraine to fend for themselves. Then we'll have to hope Putin doesn't go after more land beyond Ukraine.

I doubt the US or the EU will help to rebuild all that was destroyed.

If we rebuild Ukraine and Ukraine becomes half of what Germany or Japan is, we will have made an excellent investment. If we don't let Russia take Ukraine, Putin is going to make sure it is very expensive for us to rebuild that nation.

My concern is Mr. Obama may himself seize on this meeting, which produced nothing more than hopeful optimism that they could talk some more, to delay supplying the much needed weaponry under the pretense of not wanting to interfere with Merkel's diplomatic initiative.

One of Putin's goals in the meeting is to delay. Will the West fall for that trick again? I'd put money on it.

[Gator]

From the Telegraph


I can admit:we,journalists gathered in #Kremlin,meters from where #Hollande #Merkel #Putin sit,have ZERO info on what exactly going on there
3:48 PM - 6 Feb 2015

[Gator]

The final words from the Telegraph

21.07 Conflicting reports about whether the talks are over

21.16 A Kremlin spokesman tells Reuters the talks are now over. The next contact between the leaders will be by telephone on Sunday. The spokesman says work is underway on a possible joint document on implementing the Minsk agreement. Interfax reports Merkel and Hollande have left the Kremlin and are heading for Moscow airport.

21.26 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the five hours of talks "constructive."

22.00 France seems to agree with Russia, saying the talks were "constructive and substantial" and a plan is being drawn up to implement a previous peace accord, a French official said. "Work is now being done on a document... on the implementation of the Minsk agreement," the official said, confirming what Putin's spokesman had said earlier.
 
23.45 That's it from us tonight, thanks for following our live coverage.

[Gator]

BBC After the Meeting

The fact that few details have been made public is probably positive. It suggests this is an attempt to negotiate seriously, without rhetoric and out of the public eye. But it also means we do not really know what is on the table, how far apart the various parties are and how fragile this latest mission to bring peace to Ukraine might be.

[BillyB]

a French official said. "Work is now being done on a document... on the implementation of the Minsk agreement," the official said, confirming what Putin's spokesman had said earlier.
 

I hope there is a lot more to it than that. The Minsk agreement was signed last September to which all sides agreed to ceasefire. We all know how that turned out. Will Minsk 2.0 be any better? What is certain is that Obama will not be delivering arms to Ukraine because we will give peace a chance.....again. Let's see how the rebels will react after their next shipment of arms.

[lordtiberius]

A winter of discontent.  There is no diplomatic solution.  Russia wants war.  They gets it.

[lordtiberius]

Two years can be a looong time.

A cheerleader for murder

Birds of a feather

[AC]

BBC After the Meeting

The fact that few details have been made public is probably positive. It suggests this is an attempt to negotiate seriously, without rhetoric and out of the public eye. But it also means we do not really know what is on the table, how far apart the various parties are and how fragile this latest mission to bring peace to Ukraine might be.

I think your wife is getting to you because you are dreaming.  As long as Putin is President of Russia there will be no peace in Ukraine.  Get ready for more lies and more lost territory.

[lordtiberius]

+1

[BillyB]

Recent news from Merkel, Hollande, and Putin's recent menois a trois. Hollande says greater autonomy for Ukraine's east is on the table which translates to Ukraine breaking up.


Putin, have a slice of Ukraine and accept our humble apology for getting in your way.


Obama says US must resist urge to 'overreach" abroad which translates to "I don't want to take the lead in world affairs that are dangerous", somebody else has to do the dirty work.


I'm a lover, not a figher


An article posted less than an hour ago says 5 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 26 wounded in the last 24 hours and rebel troops are amassing forces.


Here we go again


Russia arming North Korea? They don't care about sanctions anymore.


New toys for Russia's new friends to play with

[lordtiberius]

Is time on their side?

Do you think normal Ukrainians will watch this slow motion dismemberment of their country without a fight?

Can the Russians seize Mariupol without catastrophic loss of life for the Ukrainians which would mean more support for them internationally or  catastrophic loss of life for the Russians which would mean a war weariness . . . ?

Is Merkel a friend to Russia or Ukraine?

[Muzh]

There is this eye-opening (for some) interview with the US Army Commander in Europe.


The View From NATO’s Russian Front

What Russian President Vladimir Putin “has done in Ukraine,” he says, “is a manifestation of a strategic view of the world. So when you look at the amount of equipment that has been provided, and the quality and sophistication of the equipment that has been provided to what I would call his proxies . . . they clearly have no intention of leaving there.”

The fact that the political class in the West is still splitting hairs about the nature of the insurgency in Ukraine is testament to the success of the Kremlin’s strategy of waging war without admitting it. “When you saw video of the Spetsnaz [Russian special forces], the so-called little green men” in eastern Ukraine, the general says, “unless you absolutely know nothing about military stuff, how they carry themselves, the fact that they were all perfectly in uniform, that’s hard to do. It’s hard to get soldiers to stay in uniform and everybody carrying their weapon the right way all the time. That’s how you tell the difference between a militia, or rebels who have a variety of uniforms, and this group who are all perfectly in uniform.”

Gen. Hodges notes that the Russians already have an advantage in the information battleground: “They’re not burdened with the responsibility to tell the truth. So they just hammer away, and whenever somebody in the West puts out a blog or a tweet, there’s an immediate counterattack by these trolls.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/weekend-interview-gen-frederick-hodges-on-natos-russian-front-1423266333?mod=hp_opinion

If you can't read the article here, just google the exact title above.

[Gator]

A diplomatic solution now looks unlikely.   Who knows the reason?  Maybe Putin is still insisting that Ukraine pay for reconstruction of Donesk and Lugansk.  .....blood....turnip....

The new issue is whether the remainder of Ukraine can survive.  Ukraine faces two perils.   

1.  Putin continues to advance - Somehow Ukraine must create a military stalemate if a diplomatic one is not possible.  Ukraine can not stop Russian military without modern weapons.  Even if weapons were delivered, is there enough time to train and deploy the Ukrainian military? 

2.  Ukrainian economy collapses - Although RWD members point to the downturn in Russia's economy, the Ukrainian economy is worse.  They will need much monetary aid.  If Germany and UK choose not to send weapons, I hope they can pony up enough monetary aid so the remainder of Ukraine could recover.  Would Putin sit quietly and watch eastern Ukraine remain an economic drain while the core of Ukraine thrives?

My guess is that Putin wants to continue until Ukrainians kick Poroshenko out and beg Russia to take them back, much like the abused wife returning to the husband.  Surely Ukraine has enough pride to not take that step and instead fight the Ruskies in a terrorist-guerilla fashion.   

I just do not see how this benefits Putin.  The EU seemingly would place more stringent sanctions on Russia.  Unless EU is a bunch of woosies. 

[lordtiberius]

Somehow Ukraine must create a military stalemate if a diplomatic one is not possible

Russia has yet to take a major city.  Mariupol is a test case.  They will in all likelihood take the Debelstavo pocket, but Mariupol stands as a reminder of the Battle of Grozny.  Has the Russian Army learned its lesson?  In the 2nd Chechen War, they took Grozny only after air and artillery assets demolished the city.  They do that, there is no hybrid war.

It is an open question whether EU-NATO will do nothing (likely to very likely) or do something (somewhat likely to likely).

Also even if they take Mariupol, Ukraine can adopt a insurgency strategy so long as they can get weapons from state actors like the Baltics.  Ukraine has to run out the clock until a mo' better US President arrives (if one arrives).

- Although RWD members point to the downturn in Russia's economy, the Ukrainian economy is worse.

Its in the hands of the Saudis and the price of oil.  Russia is buying and has bought a lot of gold.  They don't have the debt obligations that Ukraine has.  But in a sense the problems of corruption and cynicism oft complained about Ukraine ARE EVEN WORSE in Russia.  There are other things Russia could do vis a vis Iran and Isis and how much China will help Russia may be variables in the equation as well.  The world sympathies are with Ukraine.

My guess is that Putin wants to continue until Ukrainians kick Poroshenko out and beg Russia to take them back, much like the abused wife returning to the husband.

Poroshenko's removal is Putin's political goal.  All his military moves are centered around this.  He is looking for a Kadyrov among Ukraine.  My sense if that the people of Ukraine will stand by Poroshenko because they see the West's hand in some of his failures and he fights.

[BillyB]

A diplomatic solution now looks unlikely.   Who knows the reason?

Some reasons are clear. Poroshenko wants the ceasefire line to move back to September 2014 line. The rebels and Putin doesn't want to give up their gains. Merkel and Hollande wants to sell a piece of Ukraine in exchange for peace. Poroshenko doesn't like that idea and wants all his country back. Why should Putin accept an agreement when his forces are making gains? Accepting an agreement is accepting less than what he can get with his ground troops.


Leaders from the West are too funny. When the going gets tough, we offer the bad actors of the world chunks of land that belongs to somebody else or cash to stop their bad behavior.


Only guns and Russian losses will get Putin to come to the negotiating table with serious intentions. The West thinks they can get results from someone who has constantly deceived them. Last chance for peace? Putin will be open to more talks if it gets the West to believe they have a chance for peace and makes them hesitate again on helping Ukraine.


Meanwhile Kerry warns Russia that America will provide economic assistance to Ukraine.


We warn you that we will give food, clothing, and flak jackets to Ukraine to kick you azz Russia if you don't accept the latest peace deal

[lordtiberius]

All true Billy B.  And I reiterate my questions to you:

Is time on their side?

Do you think normal Ukrainians will watch this slow motion dismemberment of their country without a fight?

Can the Russians seize Mariupol without catastrophic loss of life for the Ukrainians which would mean more support for them internationally or  catastrophic loss of life for the Russians which would mean a war weariness . . . ?

Is Merkel a friend to Russia or Ukraine?

[Steamer]

Do you think normal Ukrainians will watch this slow motion dismemberment of their country without a fight?

No way, they'll watch this dismemberment of their country with a fight.

[lordtiberius]

McCain called Merkel's "non-armament support" as foolishness:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-politik-mccain-wirft-merkel-torheit-vor-13415575.html

[AC]

McCain called Merkel's "non-armament support" as foolishness:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-politik-mccain-wirft-merkel-torheit-vor-13415575.html

McCain is correct.  In another thread you asked when the US will use SWIFT against Russia.  I would guess as soon as Putin goes ahead with his planned invasion of Mariupol, which is likely to take place this spring.