Ukraine Can Win

[Muzh]

First, they have to get rid of the thieves.

[JayH]

  A very major fork in the road is about to become a reality.
The decision to assist Ukraine with arms is now possible. This is a game changer of massive proportion.
There is little doubt that access to better weapons will allow Ukrainian forces to push the Russian military out of eastern Ukraine.
When the pressure is applied over recovering the Crimea-it will get very interesting.

Stunning great news for Ukraine from the United States
The US Congress yesterday, May 15, was able to overcome a veto on the law of the US President to grant Ukraine military aid. Now nothing can prevent the beginning of the supply of high-precision weapons in the zone ATO.

http://elise.com.ua/?p=191985#

NATO welcomes reports on upgrading, strengthening Armed Forces of Ukraine
The NATO Military Committee has welcomed data reported by Kyiv on progress in strengthening Ukrainian Armed Forces, head of the committee General Petr Pavel has said.
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/344349.html

[jone]

Don't know what they were smokin.  There was no override of a Presidential VETO to provide lethal aid to Ukraine.  There are no additional plans to yield lethal aid.  You are the victim of reading homefront news provided by a nationalistic media outlet who provides sensationalist stories.

Wishing does not make it so.

[Steamer]

Wishing does not make it so.

Blasphemer!

[Muzh]

Don't know what they (you?) were smokin.

Maybe Kanga dung?

[JayH]

Regardless of what some persist in trying to promote-change is real and happening.Is it happening fast enough? The political realities were always going to make the process to reform slower that most would prefer-- but-progress is being made,

Interesting observations  . The romance of an idea is always a lot more difficult to make a reality than the dreaming of a possibility.

“It’s very easy to be heroes in [the] Euromaidan and much more difficult to be heroes in parliament,” said journalist Mustafa Nayyem in an interview, also now a parliamentarian. “The country has moved in the right direction . . . Now there is an emerging feeling that we can do something. That’s why I’m optimistic.”

Why Ukraine’s Gutsy, Bright, and Articulate Reformers Are Optimistic

This year, however, the most important reform that must be tackled is cleaning up the country’s rotten legal system, which requires an amendment to the constitution. Until then, economic development will be stalled and a handful of oligarchic empires will continue strangling the country.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/why-ukraine-s-gutsy-bright-and-articulate-reformers-are-optimistic

[JayH]

Important steps-- cleaning out the traitors in the system.

Ukraine’s Deputy Chief of Staff was a Russian spy – Security Service
13 agents of Russian special services are under investigation in Ukraine. Among them is the ATO Deputy Chief of Staff, Colonel of the National Guard, an employee of the Department of Military personnel, a servicemen of the Armed Forces and others, according to a statement of the Ukrainian Security Service’s (SBU’s) press center on 16 June 2016.

Overall, 367 criminal cases have been opened based on SBU intelligence data during June 2015-May 2016. 76 of them are for state treason and three – for spying.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/18/ukraines-deputy-chief-of-staff-was-a-russian-spy/

http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/05/28/moscow-spy-services-said-deploying-russian-criminal-world-against-ukraine/

[JayH]

Which way to handle the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been debated since the first minutes-- and is now ongoing discussion.There is no doubt in my mind that Minsk served it's immediate purpose from a Ukrainian perspective  ie stopping a wider invasion at that time, Subsequently the Ukrainian military have transformed itself  and the breathing space will prove to have been well used.

Now Is Not the Time to Scrap the Minsk Agreement

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances from Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States to consult in case of threats to its territorial integrity and sovereignty. When Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, Ukraine was sorely disappointed to discover that Budapest Memorandum “consultations” produced a rather weak Western response—simply a number of small sanctions. Even Moscow’s hybrid war in the Donbas produced only limited sanctions. Only after the July 2015 shoot-down of the Malaysian airliner by a Russian missile did the EU follow the American lead and impose punishing sanctions on Moscow’s energy and financial sectors.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/now-is-not-the-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement

And an alternative view-

It's time to scrap the Minsk agreement

The Minsk ceasefire agreement, signed February 15, 2015, by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France, along with representatives from the OSCE and from Russian-occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (DNR and LNR, respectively), is simply not working. It is time to scrap it and make clear to Russia, through a declaration from Western nations, that sanctions will remain in place—and will be increased over time—unless Russia meets several key conditions. These include withdrawal of its forces and weapons from Ukraine (including Crimea), respect of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, control of the border restored to Ukrainian authorities, and the return to Ukraine of those citizens it kidnapped from Ukrainian territory. Further negotiations with Moscow are pointless given that Russian officials won’t even acknowledge the presence of their forces on Ukrainian soil.

There have not been any new sanctions imposed on Russia despite its failure to live up to a single condition under the Minsk accord. Instead, a number of European leaders, led by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, along with the French parliament and others, have irresponsibly called for an easing if not outright lifting of sanctions. Without German Chancellor Angela Merkel, renewal of EU sanctions would be in jeopardy.

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/it-s-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement

[JayH]

The longer Ukraine can prevent Russia from widening it's invasion of Ukraine the stronger and better organised Ukraine is getting .Recent developments point in a positive direction.

Britain and the US appointed military advisers Ukraine

UK and US advisers appointed high-level assistance in reforming the defense sector of Ukraine.
As reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Washington and US military advisers appointed at the request of the Ukrainian side.
Earlier, the Pentagon announced that US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter at a meeting with Ukrainian Minister Stepan Poltorak in London agreed with it on cooperation in defense technology and improve the combat readiness of the Ukrainian army.
The ministers signed an agreement on partnership, which aims to "enhance the combat readiness of the armed forces of Ukraine, promote critical reforms Ukraine Defense Minister, improve resource management procedures and enhance cooperation in the field of defense technology," the Pentagon said in a statement.


http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/news_in_brief/2016/09/160908_it_military_advisors?ocid=socialflow_facebook

Most of Russia's war against Ukraine over "very bad", - General

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/bolshaya-vojna-rossyy-protyv-ukrayny-zakonchytsya-sovsem-ploho-general/

As transmits replyua.net , blogger Paul Right believes that Moscow seriously alarmed to learn that Ukraine is not only followed by another batch of weapons, but also one of the generals fighting the US Army will now have a direct bearing on the combat operations of the Ukrainians. And all this against the background of innocent US claims that the appointment of US General says of aid to Ukraine in offensive actions against Russian aggression. Why would distribute such statements?

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/posle-nedavnyh-sanktsyj-kreml-poluchyl-vtoruyu-opleuhu-ot-ssha/

http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/bolshaya-vojna-rossyy-protyv-ukrayny-zakonchytsya-sovsem-ploho-general/

NATO to support Ukraine despite Russian criticism

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that criticism of NATO by Russia for its supporting Ukraine has no grounds, as every independent country has the right to ask for the Alliance's support, according to the news portal Evropeiska Pravda.

"Russia criticizes our support of Ukraine. But Ukraine is an independent state, and it has asked for support. This is the absolute legal right of every country to request support and get it. Therefore, there is no reason to criticize it for our support of the democratic government," Stoltenberg said

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1510449-nato-to-support-ukraine-despite-russian-criticism-stoltenberg.html

[JayH]

This  is another "must read" story.
There is so much covered in this article that is current history unfolding.
In particular--the story deals with the rise and contribution of volunteers in the darkest days in 2014.
"What saved the country from complete collapse, says Zagorodnyuk, was the incredible effort made by volunteers, both in battalions on the frontline and in the rear."
The mood and enthusiasm was infectious in an incredible way. I was very close to a lot of this action and the emotion of the time stays with me forever.

We constantly have people writing only negatively about Ukraine -- but the one certainty is that they have not felt the emotion of the people of Ukraine.

This guy's story and attitudes are very typical of many like him  that I have met in the period since the Russian invasion. I did consider starting a new thread "Ukrainian Patriots" This is the reason Ukraine can win !


Ukraine defense reform leader ‘could write book on how to sabotage change’

Andriy Zagorodnyuk does not have a military background, yet he has been leading the reform office at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense since March 2015.

Zagorodnyuk, 39, is an entrepreneur at heart. Given the success of his company, Discovery Drilling Equipment, in the oilfield services industry, his post at the ministry may seem even more unlikely.

“I could have had an investor or entrepreneur visa to any country I wanted,” he told the Kyiv Post in a Nov. 10 interview. “I had all the options for a U.S. green card or British citizenship. It wasn’t a problem.”

But Zagorodnyuk, who was born and raised in Kyiv, did not take any of those options. He holds only a Ukrainian passport. In the spring of 2014, when Russia launched its war in eastern Ukraine, he came to the aid of his country. Initially, he sent clothes and food to servicemen at the front.

His company would go on to produce armour for military vehicles and heaters for soldiers’ barracks.

“We were the largest charitable provider of heaters in the warzone. We heated, probably, 10,000 people,” Zagorodnyuk said. “But that was all just filling in some gaps. It didn’t make much sense from a long-term perspective.”

The entrepreneur’s chance to make a more lasting contribution soon came. At the beginning of 2015 he was approached by volunteers working at the Ministry of Defense. They suggested he join them, and help try to reform the armed forces.

“I had good experience in the commercial sector managing change from Soviet standards to international standards. And so basically I was, like, okay, maybe my change management experience would help. But I didn’t know it would get me here for this long and that my involvement would be so serious.”

http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-defense-reform-leader-write-book-sabotage-change.html

[JayH]

The likelihood of Russia being removed from eastern Ukraine is now high.
Minsk has served a purpose for Ukraine in buying time. I have always said that Ukraine should only pay lip service to Minsk-- and only do what suits Ukraine. 
The possibility of getting the weapons needed  from the US is now high -- and they should be used to make the Russian withdrawal as costly as possible to Russia.That is in the best interests of both Ukraine and the US.
What Ukraine should never accept is any compromise in getting the Russians out -- the potential for some with the ear of President Trump to promote Russia's interests in Ukraine is still a risk for Ukraine.
Russia has never respected Minsk -- and has only sort to use it to attempt to disrupt Ukraine.
Now is the time to increase the pressure on Russia in eastern Ukraine-- and then on the Crimea.

The return of Crimea is in the interests of both Ukraine and Russia. Only the abandonment of the peninsula will allow Russia to return to the civilized world. With  Crimea, Russia will always be a rogue state.


The Kremlin’s new preoccupation: how to get out of the Donbas
Secondly, the Kremlin will continue to pursue the destabilization of Ukraine. For Putin, it is critically important to prove that Ukraine cannot exist as a state. As the military pressure declines, there will be more diversionary pressure. Moscow will work actively with Ukrainian opposition politicians and the simulated part of civil society; it will finance media and promote negative views among Ukrainians. Based on the social moods I’ve observed, I would even venture to guess that Putin will find it much easier to win in the fields of propaganda and sabotage than in military action. Therefore, we should not think that the struggle for the future of the Ukrainian state will end with the withdrawal of the occupation forces from the Donbas. In fact, Lavrov has simply admitted that the Kremlin will not vanquish Ukraine with the help of war. This means the Kremlin will use other means.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/08/14/112399/

[JayH]

New American sanctions against Russia dealt a severe blow to the very heart of the Kremlin's kleptocratic regime, so in the coming autumn, President Vladimir Putin may attempt to withdraw from the Donbass, or vice versa, to a new escalation of the situation.
There are many reasons to step up the physical pressure on Russia right now.
What should happen --is to tell Russia how it will be-- and never accept Russian attempts to compromise. Now is the time to stand on Putin's throat.

j/
The US left two options for Russia in relation to Ukraine


At the same time, Piontkovsky is sure that Russia's slightest step in escalating the conflict towards Ukraine will immediately cause a decision already prepared by the Pentagon about the transfer of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine.  "This will dramatically increase the price of further aggression for Moscow.


Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/podiyi/ssha-ostavyly-rossyy-dva-varyanta-dejstvyj-v-otnoshenyy-ukrayny-pyontkovskyj/

[msmob]

JayH,

Are you living in a parallel universe ?

Russia has 4 x more population and more hardware - plus the maj. on Crimea aren't interested in being part of Ukraine.

Putin has staked his 'cred' on this... 

You are dreaming

[JohnDearGreen]

First, they have to get rid of the thieves.

Depends on who's stealing who.
Stealing a few militants:
http://www.ostro.org/video/531224/
...a wide network of female agents who, luring the militants to bed, abduct them and take them to the free territory