Poles Steel for Battle, Fearing Russia Will March on Them Next

[mendeleyev]

The Russian security services and the military is committed, long term, to fracturing NATO. Doing so, at some point, will necessitate a "test" of NATO resolve. This is not mere conjecture, but based on various comments made by members in leadership.

That being said, the timeline is not imminent as Russia needs to complete her mission in Ukraine first, which means either subduing or controlling Ukraine to bring the Ukrainians into the Eurasian Union.

This bodes well for Poland as they have time to strengthen defenses in the meantime.

After Russia has completed consolidating Ukraine, Estonia is next on the list, not Poland.

[lordtiberius]

All these calculations presume a healthy Putin.  Where is Putin?

[mendeleyev]

LT:

All these calculations presume a healthy Putin.

Unfortunately, they do not.

[lordtiberius]

Ah, yes they do.  It will be a battle royale - a redux of the Russian Civil War.  Couldn't happen to a nicer people.  And nations will get involved.  Expect China to seize territory once stolen from them.

Good luck.

[Boethius]

I believe Mendy's point is that many in the Russian leadership have the same views as Putin.  They may be even more obstreperous.

[lordtiberius]

I believe Mendy's point is that many in the Russian leadership have the same views as Putin.  They may be even more obstreperous.

Many is not the same as all or some.  There is a real power struggle in Moscow right.  As I write this a Monastery is on fire.  Several officials including the governor of Sakhlin Island is under arrest.

[Anathema]

In a strictly conventional war, Russia would have their ass handed to them if they tried to take Poland.  Without NATO supporting Poland, they might be able to get the job done but it would be extremely costly for them, in multiple ways.

ETA: Some Polandball for good measure. 

[BillyB]

in our own hemisphere....Venezuela, Cuba, Equator, and Bolivia have unified and openly condemned the US this week.  Big protests in Brazil this week too....It is possible alliances are starting to shift on a global scale.   

I doubt those nations can help Russia in a war but Putin will welcome them into the club. There's always going to be haters out there but Russia's and China's recent aggressions have actually brought more nations closer to America than push them away.

Billy B, where is Putin?

I'll predict he's recovering from plastic surgery to his face. If he's going to write history, he might as well look good doing it.

All these calculations presume a healthy Putin. 

There are people at the Kremlin that think Putin is too passive and too slow when moving on Ukraine. Still hope Putin is dead? Careful what you wish for.

After Russia has completed consolidating Ukraine, Estonia is next on the list, not Poland.

If testing NATO is to happen, it's best to start on something smaller and less valuable than Poland. I think some NATO members will stand by and doing nothing. Greece is at the top of the list.

[lordtiberius]

The west is holding pocket aces, Putin (presuming he is alive) is holding a deuce seven.  They don't play chess anymore, they play poker.  You have to be man enough to call them at their bluff.  You complain the West is too impotent and yet when asked what can they do, you are vague and evasive. 

Still think he's pro-Ukie?

There is a power struggle going on in Moscow.  Boris Nemtsov is dead.  One General is dead.  A governor has been arrested and a monastery is on fire.  Trucks are gathering in the Kremlin.  And the most narcissistic man in the world who is not gay has avoided cameras since March 5.  Draw your own conclusions.

[Steamer]

There is a power struggle going on in Moscow.  Boris Nemtsov is dead.  One General is dead.  A governor has been arrested and a monastery is on fire.  Trucks are gathering in the Kremlin.  And the most narcissistic man in the world who is not gay has avoided cameras since March 5.  Draw your own conclusions.

Reminds me of an old Army saying:


When in danger
Or in doubt
Run in circles
And scream and shout

[Steamer]

I doubt those nations can help Russia in a war but Putin will welcome them into the club.

Not in a direct military way but if Russia were to arm Latin Amer., Syria, N Korea, numerous leftist insurgent groups and perhaps fuel up Irans nuke reactor the US could easily find itself juggling a lot of hot potatoes. Remember this is how the cold war was played for many years.

[fathertime]

I doubt those nations can help Russia in a war but Putin will welcome them into the club. There's always going to be haters out there but Russia's and China's recent aggressions have actually brought more nations closer to America than push them away

I don't know about helping Russia directly as that wasn't my point.
One of our greatest strengths has been our finances.  Now China with the help of Russia is beginning to offer a more serious alternative.  We shot much of our 'goodwill wad' recently in places like Iraq Afghanistan Syria Libya. Now Venezuela Iran n. Korea Russia China and who knows who else are making waves...we can sit out and strengthen home base because our own country is quite divided. .maybe worse than ever...nobody says we HAVE to police the world...I'd assert much of the world no longer trusts us like prior to all these recent conflicts we have participated in.  I do  wonder how our financial clout is going to hold up now that China is asserting itself on top of everything else.  Of course this just my 2 cents.

Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

China's economy is stalled.

[ML]

Where is Putin?

Just today, a guy who looks somewhat like him, was looking at one of my lots for sale.  He also asked about living in my basement for awhile. 

Had a much younger gal with him who was holding a newly born infant. 

Said he would pay cash and was waiting for new identity papers to have a name for the deed. 

Sounded and looked sort of suspicious . . . but who knows.

[lordtiberius]

That woman they say was pregnant, ain't.

[fathertime]

There is a power struggle going on in Moscow.  Boris Nemtsov is dead.  One General is dead.  A governor has been arrested and a monastery is on fire.  Trucks are gathering in the Kremlin.  And the most narcissistic man in the world who is not gay has avoided cameras since March 5.  Draw your own conclusions.

Hyperventilating  hilarity...


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

The west is holding pocket aces, Putin (presuming he is alive) is holding a deuce seven.  They don't play chess anymore, they play poker.  You have to be man enough to call them at their bluff.  You complain the West is too impotent and yet when asked what can they do, you are vague and evasive. 

 

The West is NOT holding pocket aces and Russia is not holding 2-7.  The hands would be a lot closer in value to that.  The West may have the stronger hand overall.


I don't think Russia was/is bluffing, and the Western nations are imposing costs which is the right move. 


Fathertime!   

[Muzh]

Hyperventilating  hilarity...


Fathertime!

I'm pretty sure it was hilariously hyperventilating after you saw Putler emerge from under a rock. 

[fathertime]

I'm pretty sure it was hilariously hyperventilating after you saw Putler emerge from under a rock. 

I still haven't seen him yet but when I get to that article, I'll buckle up, and try to remember  to breath in and out slowly.


Fathertime!   

[The Natural]

Russia will not invade Poland, or any other NATO country for that matter. Not as long asd Putin is in charge, because:

I believe Mendy's point is that many in the Russian leadership have the same views as Putin.  They may be even more obstreperous.

There are indeed People that are more ....obstreperous. (unruly, unmanageable, disorderly, undisciplined, uncontrollable, rowdy, disruptive, truculent, difficult, refractory, rebellious, mutinous, riotous, out of control, wild, turbulent, uproarious, boisterous, noisy, loud, clamorous, raucous, vociferous, rambunctious)

Putin is a moderate and the rest of the world should be happy he's in Power still. When he's gone, we might not be so safe anymore.....

[Larry1]

Here is another installment in the thread about beefing up Polish defenses:

The U.S. Army Europe has deployed a Patriot missile defense battery near Warsaw as part of joint exercises with Poland aimed at reassuring the NATO member in light of the conflict in neighboring Ukraine.

Poland, in NATO since 1999, does not have its own system to protect against ballistic missiles and is to take a decision regarding the supplier for its medium-range missile defense system within weeks...

U.S. Army Europe said earlier this week that the aim of the weeklong exercise was to "reassure allies, demonstrate freedom of movement and deter regional aggression on the eastern flank of NATO."

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/us-army-joins-polish-military-defense-exercises-near-warsaw/517823.html

As we saw in the fighting in Eastern Ukraine, Russian missiles are very effective. It's prudent of Poland to have anti-missile defenses. If Obama hadn't been elected anti-missile defenses would have already been installed in Poland.