The Russian/Syrian connection thread

[mendeleyev]

Belvis, you should get to know the government budget more intimately. You'd also do well to learn the top 3 "threats" as calculated by your own Security Council.

[2tallbill]

Russia offers to coordinate with rebels and US in Syria
Free Syrian Army rejects Russia's offer to cooperate, saying Russian
air force jets regularly target FSA positions.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/russia-offers-coordinate-rebels-syria-free-syrian-army-usa-kerry-lavrov-151024220647655.html

Syria conflict: FSA rebels reject Russia military help
An FSA spokesman told the BBC that Moscow could not be trusted and that its help was not
needed. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that Russia was ready to help the
rebels if they attacked militants from the Islamic State (IS) group.

Russia, a key ally of the Syrian government, has carried out air strikes in the country since last
month. Moscow says the strikes have mainly targeted IS, but Western powers say most have
hit the FSA and other factions backed by the West and Gulf states.

In his offer to the FSA, Mr Lavrov said the Russian air force could support the FSA provided
the US shared information about rebel positions.

read all about it here
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34632483

[2tallbill]

Putin Is Angling for a Quick Exit From Syria
By Vladimir Frolov

Russian President Vladimir Putin is pivoting to diplomacy on Syria to capitalize on the perception
of Russia's military success after four weeks of air strikes. He is in a rush to switch gears before
the Syrian army's offensive stalls and Russia's key ally is exposed as a spent force.

Having achieved his primary objective of positioning Russia as an indispensable global power on
a par with the United States, Putin is angling for a quick exit before the going gets tough.

Putin's diplomatic plan, borrowing heavily from his Chechen template, centers on the need to
split the anti-Assad opposition and co-opt those of its elements who would agree to hold the
transition talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad and stop fighting the regime, while turning
their arms against the Islamic State.

During Assad's clandestine visit to Moscow last week, he was told to agree to share power and
Russia's military support with those moderate opposition groups that Russia would be able to
incite and co-opt into a "counter-terrorist coalition" to fight the Islamic State. Those opposition
groups who did not join the "coalition" would be labeled Islamic State and bombed into dust.

It's a cynically clever plan to create a new reality in Syria by turning its civil war into a counter-
terrorist operation. Moscow, however, needs assistance from the United States, Saudi Arabia
and Turkey, who back moderate opposition groups, to bring at least some of them to the
negotiating table with Assad, while cutting off military support to those who refuse. The task is
all the more difficult since Russia now bombs all those groups.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called upon the Free Syrian Army to accept Russian air
support to fight the Islamic State and join talks with Assad to prepare for early presidential and
parliamentary elections.

there is a lot more read all about it here
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putin-is-angling-for-a-quick-exit-from-syria/540318.html

[Gator]

Putin's diplomatic plan, borrowing heavily from his Chechen template, centers on the need to
split the anti-Assad opposition and co-opt those of its elements who would agree to hold the
transition talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad and stop fighting the regime, while turning
their arms against the Islamic State.

Wishful thinking.  In reality, I doubt it will happen based on history:  both recent history and the distant past.  The number and diversity of sects in Syria are almost as complicated as the situation in Lebanon. 

Assad is an Alawite and draws his support from the Alawite people.  The Alawite are a Shia sect and  account for only 15-20% of the Syrian population, with the majority of Syria being Sunni (both Arabs and Kurds), and there are other smaller  sects.   

Even though a minority, the Alawite  were the  political and military elite ever since Syria was created.   There were conflicts in the past among the different sects, and the civil war has brought it to extreme hatred.  This is more than a feud; there are scores to be settled.  Situations where the minority rules eventually collapse. 

So how will Russia bring the diverse sects and their EU, Arabic and US supporting governments to the negotiation table?  Bombing the opposition sects into submission is not the answer IMO.  Even if negotiations were started, how will they fare?  Consider Libya and Iraq as examples. 

Lebanon is quite possibly an indicator of the best that can happen in Syria.  Lebanon in 1975 was considered one of only two democracies in the Middle East.  It lost that status because of a long civil war.  The war ended in 1990, and a shared government installed, yet 25 years later one can not call Lebanon a politically free, united nation.  Many divisions remain with outside players such as Iran supplying the Hezbollah.  So why will Syria be any better?   BTW, Syria long played a destabilizing role in Lebanon.   

As Obama said, this is a quagmire.

Regarding the concept that Putin is "angling for a quick exit," has Putin ever withdrawn before he accomplished his goals?   

[sleepycat]

Russian officials do not consider China as the prime threat, at least in public.

Finally bowing to the inevitable in acknowledging vassal state status to your Chinese overlords?
 

[BillyB]

Russia devotes a significant portion of military manpower and budget to the border. Today.

That is nothing to be alarmed about. Russia isn't the exception. It's the rule that every country bordering China by land or sea devotes a significant portion of their military and budget to discourage China from heading their way. China is an aggressor just as Russia is. Countries bordering Russia aren't sleeping well at night either and a good portion of their military is devoted to counter a Russian attack.


China were in border wars with India, Russia, and Vietnam in the last 60 years. China also engaged America in the Vietnam and Korean wars. China made it a point they don't want America on their doorstep. If a hostile nation attacks Canada, America won't let them be successful either.


China is currently aggressive with Vietnam and Philippines taking over disputed islands and oil rich territory in the China Sea. Where there are no islands, China is building islands by dumping dirt on coral to raise elevations. Taiwan will always be on their "to do" list.


Russia has little to worry about from China and they've even held military drills together recently according to the article below. America has a weak president who is reluctant to enforce international law which means there is currently nobody to enforce it. No better time to snap up some real estate by bullying the little guys and the free for all is better when the aggressors stick together.


http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-china-beware-the-budding-eurasian-colossus-14163?ref=yfp

[sleepycat]

Oh dear!!!

Looks like huilo's war planes are having some trouble operating under desert conditions in Syria...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/10/25/russia-vladimir-putin-ash-carter-syria/74586002/

[mendeleyev]

That is nothing to be alarmed about. Russia isn't the exception. It's the rule that every country bordering China by land or sea devotes a significant portion of their military and budget to discourage China from heading their way. China is an aggressor just as Russia is. Countries bordering Russia aren't sleeping well at night either and a good portion of their military is devoted to counter a Russian attack.

Russia has little to worry about from China and they've even held military drills together recently according to the article below.  No better time to snap up some real estate by bullying the little guys and the free for all is better when the aggressors stick together.

The only folks worried about China on Russia's borders are the Russians. Again, given Russia's doctrine of limited and regional nuclear defense, it is unlikely that the Chinese will be planning an invasion anytime soon.

Billy, I hope that you can grasp something of the Eastern mindset here. The European Russia is window dressing. At heart, Russia is (over 51% geographically) in her soul an Asian nation. Do you recall the phrase, "scratch a Russian and underneath is a Tatar"? That isn't literally about the Tatar minority, rather it is about who Russia really is. The rage, and racism, on the outside is simply a European mask. Yeah, yeah, we can reason that the Asian part of Russian holds a minority of her population, but when it comes to logic and thought processes, Russia is Asian.

That being said, Putin (and China) follow the the old maxim of "hold your friends close, but your enemies closer." Of course they've conducted military drills jointly. That is not a new thing, by the way.

The current USA president is not the only one from weak lineage. I recall one before him saying something about looking deep into Putin's eyes, and wanting to kiss him, or something of the sort. They rode around in antique cars together, and talked oil and fishing. Good ole boys, just like Yeltsin and his weak counterpart, William Jefferson "grab her by the ass" Clinton. The two got drunk and Yeltsin claimed that Clinton was just like a Russian because he liked women and booze.

The problem with the USA is that the people who understand Russia are not in places of influence. After John Quincy Adams and James Buchanan who served the Union as Ambassadors to Russia in the early days, in more recent years only Ambassadors James Collins and Arthur Hartman lasted more than 3 years. Many lasted a few months, a few lasted a year. It was a drought after that, and not until John Beyrle took the oath did the Americans have someone who knew, understood, and was respected by Moscow.

Then along came the current alien on the Potomac and Beyrle, the best Ambassador in years, was out of a job because a new POTUS had a hard-on for a young and green college professor from California. Michael McFaul had a record of serving organizations who planned how to topple governments, and his arrival to Moscow was chilly. His first appointments were to meet with the opposition, not with his host government. McFaul served two years, sort of, as he commuted weekly from California to Moscow. His family never joined him, and in reality his staff ran the Embassy. In real life, Michael is a decent guy. I hope that he gets to write books...from California, naturally.

It took dragging Henry Kissinger out of retirement to make a one-day trip to Moscow; first to spank McFaul for being stupid, and then to meet with Putin to ask for mercy, grace, and a little more time. Host countries do have the right to expel Ambassadors.

So the brain surgeons along the Potomac decided to replace McFaul with the Ambassador who had just seen the revolution in Ukraine. Given Moscow's suspicions about USA orchestration of the Maidan revolution, as you can imagine the act of moving the guy from Kyiv to Moscow was a real smart choice. Not. Nothing against a good and capable man, John Tefft, but some appointments require a sense of timing, not stupidity from grownups that act like interns.

So, were anyone to wonder how Vladimir Putin wouldn't like a tall black pseudo lawyer from Illinois as his counterpart, look at it from the Russian perspective. The fact that on his first trip he not only brought his children to Moscow, but a staff that included cooks, a plane load of food for those chefs to cook, and an official taster whose duty was to taste anything that was presented for Mr. Obama to consume as a guest of the Russian government. Try that when invited to the next family gathering.

[2tallbill]

an official taster whose duty was to taste anything that was presented for Mr. Obama to consume as a guest of the Russian government. Try that when invited to the next family gathering.

I'm sure you know that my wife is Russian and that I love Russian food and surely 
you also know that I am not a fan of either McFall or Team Obama. However after
April 10th 2010 when the Polish president tried to return home from Russia an
official taster might not be such a wacky/zany idea.

[mendeleyev]

That was something that Putin, if he was involved, could get away with. Poisoning the POTUS of the USA would have been a very different deal. Keep in mind that Medvedev when president had even gone out for hamburgers with Obama in DC, just prior to leaving for the G8 in Canada. That burger stop was seemingly (not really) spontaneous. Dmitry ate his burger, his fries, and enjoyed his beverage--without a taster.   

[2tallbill]

Obama weighs moving U.S. troops closer to front lines in Syria, Iraq
By Missy Ryan and Greg Jaffe Washington Post



read all about it here
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-weighs-moving-us-troops-closer-to-front-lines-in-syria-iraq/2015/10/26/4ae2f36c-7bec-11e5-b575-d8dcfedb4ea1_story.html

[Gator]

IRAQ LONG ROAD TO HELL

This current CNN documentary aired yesterday.  Besides the previously mentioned interview with Tony Blair apologizing for the faulty intelligence, it included interviews with many others in the Bush and Obama administrations.  No one other than Tony Blair apologized.

IMO, the most poignant comment came from Richard Hass.  president, Council on Foreign Relations.  He was an advisor to Colin Powell. 

I understood him to say  both Bush and Obama share blame through acts of omission and commission; however, the primary blame rests on the shoulders of the people, i. e., the Iraqis in Iraq and all Middle Eastern people in the region.  He stated  the cultures of this diverse group of people are so flawed THEY HAVE NOT COME TO GRIPS WITH MODERNITY. 

I believe he speaks the truth.  In other words, stability is hopeless within one or two generations.  The West has tried 1) intervention with troops on the ground, 2) intervention without troops on the ground and 3) support without intervention.  None are working.  The US still needs to maintain a position of influence in the region, yet share if not relinquish leadership to the EU because of oil and refugees. 

[fathertime]

U.S. weighs special forces in Syria, helicopters in Iraq


.....That option includes temporarily deploying some U.S. special operations forces inside of Syria to advise moderate Syrian opposition fighters for the first time.....


....Other possibilities including sending a small number of Apache attack helicopters, and U.S. forces to operate them,.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/us-mideast-crisis-obama-options-idUSKCN0SM03O20151028




Once they start floating this idea, it is either already happening, or almost a certainly it will happen.  Why again is it so important for America to encourage, weaponize, and bring down regimes?  I'm convinced that it sure doesn't have to do with actually being helpful....just business for the 'good guys'.


Fathertime!     

[fathertime]

Just like clockwork.  Now that we are starting to officially send forces, lets see where this ends. 


U.S. to deploy small number of special forces to Syria in advisory role: sources




WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama plans to deploy a small number of special operations forces to Syria to advise moderate rebels, U.S. sources said, a step he has long resisted to avoid getting dragged into another war in the Middle East.....

http://news.yahoo.com/u-deploy-special-forces-syria-advisory-role-sources-142157547.html

[2tallbill]

DEMS DECRY OBAMA DECISION TO DEPLOY SPECIAL OPS TO SYRIA
BY DEB RIECHMANN
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Congressional Democrats on Friday criticized President Barack Obama's decision to dispatch
a small band of U.S. special operations forces to northern Syria to help local fighters battle the
Islamic State, saying they feared "mission creep" from a president who promised to end American
involvement in two wars.

Democrats complained the move was being made without a clear U.S. strategy in Syria, torn
asunder by years of civil war. They also said the move makes it essential that Congress debate
and vote on a new authorization for the use of military force. Obama is relying on war powers
given to President George W. Bush after 9/11.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said sending
American special forces into Syria represents a major shift in policy that puts the United States
on a "potentially dangerous downward slope into a civil war with no end in sight."


read all about it here
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_UNITED_STATES_SYRIA_CONGRESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-10-30-16-13-46

[2tallbill]

I don't want to make this another US political thread. We have a US Political
thread here. http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=18909.msg416899;topicseen#new







Trump slams Obama over ground troops in Syria

Donald Trump on Saturday knocked President Barack Obama's decision to deploy
fewer than 50 Special Operations forces on the ground in Syria, suggesting the
strategy is a half-measure.

"I think we have a president who just doesn't know what he's doing," Trump told CNN.
"You either do it or you don't do it. Fifty people. He puts 50 people."

read all about it here
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/donald-trump-syria-super-pacs/index.html

[fathertime]

I just listened to a 6 minute interview with Chris Chistie on fox news.  I wanted to like him, but I found what he said disgusting,regarding Syria.  The interviewer said, WE should decide who runs Syria.  Christie than retorted 'we need to set up a no fly zone, to give 'the rebels' the opportunity to fight'.  What bullshit. The no fly zone he proposes would assure the defeat of Assad, so why pretend it wouldn't, and would mean we imposed our preference on who is leading Syria.  If Christie is going to be touted as a 'straight shooter' he should act one.   Next!!!





  http://video.foxnews.com/v/4589066898001/christie-reacts-to-cnbc-debate-us-troops-going-to-syria-/?#sp=show-clips   


Fathertime! 

[Gator]

DEMS DECRY OBAMA DECISION TO DEPLOY SPECIAL OPS TO SYRIA
BY DEB RIECHMANN
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Democrats complained the move was being made without a clear U.S. strategy in Syria, torn
asunder by years of civil war.

This move by Obama helps the Kurds.  They are the only people in the region willing to confront ISIS, and this small number of troops will help them continue the fight against ISIS.  This move  is not targeted at Assad.

I applaud the deployment, and I believe  more should be done  for the Kurds, much more.    Unlike the Sunni and Shia sects of Iraq, the  Kurds did not want the US military  to withdraw from Iraq in 2011.  Obama should have stayed in Kurdistan and provided  arms to the Kurds.  Have you seen photos of the Kurdish fighters?  Many do not have modern weapons and uniforms.  Some resemble Taliban, wearing sandals and the like. 

The Kurdish people have been repressed for centuries.  France and England at the conclusion of WW I did not define a homeland for them even though they have their own language, etc.  Kurdistan includes many minorities (including Christians) and the Kurds accept them. 

[fathertime]

Syria rebels using caged captives as 'human shields': monitor




Beirut (AFP) - A major Syrian rebel group is using dozens of captives in metal cages as "human shields" in the largest opposition stronghold on the outskirts of Damascus, a monitor said Sunday.


The group then placed these cages in public squares in the Eastern Ghouta region in an attempt to "prevent regime bombardment", Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman said.

"Jaish al-Islam is using these captives and kidnapped people -- including whole families -- as human shields," he said......

http://news.yahoo.com/syria-rebels-using-caged-captives-human-shields-monitor-152332114.html




Clearly we (the US) need to be arming/supporting these civilized 'rebels'!  Why the hell is it important for us to continue to support anyone who is against Assad?  Prior to this war which we have helped instigate, Syria was more aligned with Russia than us, but there didn't seem to be too much negative coming from the country, although I'm sure they had some problems.    US interests trump everything else though, so 'Assad must go'! 


Fathertime! 

[ML]

France and England at the conclusion of WW I did not define a homeland for them . . .

Lawrence tried in vain to try to educate them (the French and English) about this.

[alex330]

Have you seen photos of the Kurdish fighters?  Many do not have modern weapons and uniforms.  Some resemble Taliban, wearing sandals and the like. 

Even The Kurdish women fight for their homeland. We have not provided enough help to the only people in the area who truly want freedom.

[mendeleyev]

It is a very complicated mess, and the USA has chosen sides, some don't deserve to be chosen, without clearly thinking of what it means. The Kurds deserve protection and the ability to carve out a homeland, even if it is part of greater union. However, our NATO allies, the Turks, do not agree.

The Russian objective, although they are running out of money to fund it, is much more clear. They have consistently supported Syria over the years and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The Syrians under Assad not only protected the ancient Orthodox communities, but over the years have included Syrian Orthodox leaders in the government.

It is not the only reason, but Moscow's view of themselves as the "Third Rome" means that they feel a responsibility to defend those who befriend Orthodox Christians. In the liturgy every Sunday Orthodox Christians around the world pray:

"O Lord, save your people, and bless your inheritance! Grant victory to the Orthodox Christians over their adversaries, and by virtue of your cross, preserve your habitation."

This prayer, called the Troparian, is not something new due to foreign policy, rather; we have prayed that prayer for centuries, including as Christians were being slaughtered in the middle East by the Muslim Crusaders. To dismiss the Russian concept of a "Third Rome" as trivial, which the current American administration has done, is to show ignorance of history and of the Russian motivation in the Middle East.

The Russians are also very interested in exploiting Obama's stupidity over Iran. There are holes in the Russians policy however, most notably their antagonistic feels to Israel, for example, and their support to terrorist organizations that attack Israel. If anyone should be a friend of Israel, it should logically be the place that at one time claimed the largest population of Jews in the world. However, Russia has a long history of antisemitism, and like the Crimean Tatars, under Putin the Jews who remain in Russia are reporting new challenges for life inside Russia.

In 2014 the largest number of Jews left Russia since the mass migration of the early 1990s. Some of you may know Sophia Tupolev, the (former) RT journalist who assisted the Mendeleyev Journal on Russian language features. Sophia resigned her post at RT, and just this September quietly arrived in Tel Aviv where she swapped her Russian passport for an Israeli one. I am happy to report that she has just landed a job with a television network in Tel Aviv.

That the Russians are bombing the "friends" of the USA serves more than one purpose: it protects their ally, at the same time it is like jabbing a finger in the eye of Obama, who Putin dislikes with a passion, and it tweaks the noses of the leaders in Ankara / Istanbul (a NATO member), where Turkey opposes Russia on Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria, but at the same time has substantial economic ties to Moscow. Just this last September Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the guest of Vladimir Putin for the historic opening of the new Grand Cathedral Mosque in Moscow. Yet the two are opposed on Iran, Black Sea security, and a host of other issues. The Turks went to the polls today, the second parliamentary election in 5 months, a sign of Erdogan's weakening power (which in my opinion is not perhaps a bad thing).

If one thinks that is complicated, try an international marriage in the midst of such competing international agendas. 

[fathertime]

Jeepers! The republican candidates all are jumping up and down that Obama sent only 50 special forces.    I'm jumping up and down because he shouldn't have sent any!   


Carson, GOP White House candidates critical of Obama’s Syria plan for 50 Special Ops troops



Republican White House candidates on Sunday criticized President Obama’s plan to deploy 50 Special Operations troops in Syria to fight the Islamic State terror group

“Sending 50 American Special Forces into Syria in the eyes of ISIL shows that Obama is not all in,” candidate and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/01/carson-gop-white-house-candidates-critical-obamas-syria-plan-for-50-special-ops/?intcmp=hpbt1

What a dog and pony show this is.  The Republicans would probably find a reason to criticize Obama regardless of what he did.  There is hardly any support here to send troops into Syria, and rightfully so.  We were not invited, and have no business trying to determine the outcome in a foreign land that we have little interest in, until now.  One thing this does, is make countries realize they may need to nuclearize themselves to immunize themselves from a possible self-serving US intervention. 


Fathertime! 

[alex330]

While Russia spreads itself thin in Syria we move armor and artillery into Estonia.

http://www.baltictimes.com/us_military_hardware_arrives_in_estonia/

Looks like Amari airbase is under expansion as well.

[Anotherkiwi]

I just listened to a 6 minute interview with Chris Christie on fox news.  I wanted to like him, but I found what he said disgusting, regarding Syria.  The interviewer said, WE should decide who runs Syria.

We, meaning the USA?  And some people wonder why other countries are anti-American?

I sincerely hope that this excuse for an interviewer gets reassigned as "our" correspondent in Damascus.  Then he can figure out first-hand how to make his statement come true.