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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 195712 times)

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Online Trenchcoat

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Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #1750 on: August 05, 2019, 09:24:50 AM »
From the very link you quoted

 :ROFL:



Wake up, Trench

What that, read the article Mobe, that is the earliest possible date after a VoNC. The gov can add on some days before the dissolution of Parliament to get it pat the 31st.

The gov can also hold the VoNC a few days after it is called as it is generally up to the Give when to allow time for it.

Of course a VoNC is unlikely as Corbyn has indicated he will go straight for one after summer recess.

So, Boris is likely to jump in first, as PM he gets the right to address the house first after recess. So he can stand up and announce a General Election. Then it is a matter of a vote subsequently taking place on it in the commons where 66% or more must agree, which they no doubt will.

Then it is up to Boris when the General Election is held, quite easy for him to make the date after the 31st :D

Now that Corbyn has revealed his hand and stated what he will do, Boris will know that he needs to trump Corbyn and announce an election straight away when MP's return. He won't be able to do anything with the Parliament he has anyway so might as well.
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« Reply #1751 on: August 05, 2019, 09:55:09 AM »
Trench take up you inabilty to read what is clear with the BBC .. I see nothing incorrect withthe flowchart ...


It's just another example of you posting lots of bollox and failing to admit you're wrong ..
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1752 on: August 05, 2019, 10:36:23 AM »
Trench take up you inabilty to read what is clear with the BBC .. I see nothing incorrect withthe flowchart ...


It's just another example of you posting lots of bollox and failing to admit you're wrong ..

MOBE,

DO YOU SUFFER FROM DYSLEXIA?

FIND IT DIFFICULT TO READ A LOT OF WORDS?
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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« Reply #1753 on: August 05, 2019, 10:57:36 AM »
MOBE,

DO YOU SUFFER FROM DYSLEXIA?

FIND IT DIFFICULT TO READ A LOT OF WORDS?


Given your track record at this forum (be it relationships or politics) and poor grasp of the English language, perhaps a little bit hypocritical of you to ask this? Some dyslexics may also be offended.


You might think that because you have the backing of those here who seem to want to contradict Moby, irrespective of the argument or the rights or wrongs, but I wouldn't get ahead of yourself. You're showing yourself to be an uneducated idiot on this subject, plagiarising whatever articles you can to fit into your argument without understanding them.


Why don't you do us all a favour, forget the speculation and just come back here on 31st October and tell everyone you told them so?

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« Reply #1754 on: August 05, 2019, 11:09:59 AM »
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline lyndontom

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« Reply #1755 on: August 05, 2019, 11:14:24 AM »
Was reading the odds this morning.  Looks like the odds are beginning to favor Brexit, deal or no deal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit?selectionName=no-(withdrawal-agreement-is-ratified,-article-50-extended-beyond-2019-or-article-50-revoked)


When I looked last week the odds of there not being a no-deal Brexit were 4/7. They're now 4/9, so in the long-term they have lengthened on a no-deal Brexit, in the long-term at least.


It is obvious that the odds are likely to shorten though in the short-term as Boris continues to purport it as a reality. There are, however, much wider forces that will come into play than Boris simply blustering that we will leave the EU without a deal.

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« Reply #1756 on: August 05, 2019, 11:20:04 AM »
Maybe these odds makers were the same ones that had Hillary winning by 3/1.
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

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« Reply #1757 on: August 05, 2019, 11:27:39 AM »
Maybe these odds makers were the same ones that had Hillary winning by 3/1.


I'm not on that side of the pond but I'm pretty sure that came as a shock to as many people over there as it did to us Brits. Just as the referendum result here came as a surprise.


I see the odds as quite fair at the moment; nobody knows for sure what will happen. A no-deal Brexit IS possible, though still not the most likely outcome on the balance of probabilities.




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« Reply #1758 on: August 05, 2019, 11:54:24 AM »

I'm not on that side of the pond but I'm pretty sure that came as a shock to as many people over there as it did to us Brits. Just as the referendum result here came as a surprise.


I see the odds as quite fair at the moment; nobody knows for sure what will happen. A no-deal Brexit IS possible, though still not the most likely outcome on the balance of probabilities.

A fair assessment, Sir.  Thank you for that. 
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

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« Reply #1759 on: August 05, 2019, 12:05:49 PM »
A fair assessment, Sir.  Thank you for that.


I'm not an expert, but I guess as well as calculating the likelihood of events, bookmakers are driven by their margin and where the money is going. I could back a horse at 1/20 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will win.  Of course, I am sure they lay traps to con sucker bets and sucker punters.

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« Reply #1760 on: August 05, 2019, 01:53:37 PM »

Given your track record at this forum (be it relationships or politics) and poor grasp of the English language, perhaps a little bit hypocritical of you to ask this? Some dyslexics may also be offended.


You might think that because you have the backing of those here who seem to want to contradict Moby, irrespective of the argument or the rights or wrongs, but I wouldn't get ahead of yourself. You're showing yourself to be an uneducated idiot on this subject, plagiarising whatever articles you can to fit into your argument without understanding them.


Why don't you do us all a favour, forget the speculation and just come back here on 31st October and tell everyone you told them so?

It's not supposed to be a go at Moby, it's a genuine serious question. I ask this question without ill intent and not to insult or poke fun but to try to understand the guy better.

Moby could quite likely be dyslexic. His focus on the flow diagram rather than the large written verse struck me as strange. That is what started me thinking that he could be dyslexic.

I have known a guy who was dyslexic in the part and Moby could be said to be displaying similar character traits. The guy was great with algebra & computer programming and that rings with Moby and his tech stuff. The guy also had an unfortunate demeanor about him, bit all the time and sometimes he could be ok to get along with even a goofy humourous side, but he was all too often had a superiority complex about him. Basically he always thought he knew it and he's view was superior to others, he could even be quite condescending about it. I for the most part beared it as I knew it was likely due to the tough time he had growing up with dyslexia. Other work mates took offence and he got their back right up and I could understand why. Someone who talks down to others and has a superior attitude is likely to do that.

I see a similar attitude in Mobers and today it clicked that it may be the same thing, dyslexia that is driving it. Again I don't mean it as an attack on Mobers. The thing is we talk to each other on here without knowing if someone has stuff like this in their background. Some members are forthcoming about whether they are autistic/Asperger's etc others possibly less so. I think it would help to explain Mobers problems in relationships with his ex-wife, etc and also the continual superior attitude he tends to display here. Again I don't mean that as an attack but as an observation as to he's line of thought on most occasions. If he is dyslexic then it goes some way to explaining why he is how he is.
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« Reply #1761 on: August 05, 2019, 02:06:57 PM »
MOBE,

DO YOU SUFFER FROM DYSLEXIA?

FIND IT DIFFICULT TO READ A LOT OF WORDS?

TrenchCoat, In the most strenuous terms I object to the slander of dyslexic's. I am dyslexic and in no way or inference want to be associated with the likes of your debating partner.

Having noted this I have read with interest both of yours standpoints and only say 'carry on.'
Experierence is not what happens to you. It is what you do with what happens to you. A. Huxley

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« Reply #1762 on: August 05, 2019, 02:10:25 PM »

I'm not on that side of the pond but I'm pretty sure that came as a shock to as many people over there as it did to us Brits. Just as the referendum result here came as a surprise.


I see the odds as quite fair at the moment; nobody knows for sure what will happen. A no-deal Brexit IS possible, though still not the most likely outcome on the balance of probabilities.

I find it curious as to why people say 'a no deal brexit is possible but still a deal is more likely' or similar. I don't see how a deal could possibly be done. The EU are adamant they won't budge, they are saying take the withdrawal agreement as us or do some form of customs union. A Canada style agreement might be possible but they still want a backstop to that and some say it is less access to the single market than the deal Theresa May got. I only see some form of Canada style deal or a deal to be done AFTER we exit in the 31st October. The EU won't take us serious about us leaving the EU until we actually have under a no deal brexit. They are not going to fool for the whole pretend to leave the EU card on the table as Theresa May tried. That card play would work no more better for Boris.

Boris has to get out in the 31st October to avoid destruction of his party and destruction of his credibility. A no deal brexit on the 31st will achieve avoiding that. Boris will then have a free hand to negotiate a deal with the EU. In the meantime there is likely to be a hard border and WTO tariffs, but that won't be as big a deal as a lot of people fear, especially as we are a net importer of goods. It's even worth seeing if our economy improves under such circumstances.
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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1763 on: August 05, 2019, 02:12:05 PM »
TrenchCoat, In the most strenuous terms I object to the slander of dyslexic's. I am dyslexic and in no way or inference want to be associated with the likes of your debating partner.

Having noted this I have read with interest both of yours standpoints and only say 'carry on.'


Lol, yep apolagies Bd, I understand that  :cheesy:
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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« Reply #1764 on: August 05, 2019, 02:18:08 PM »
As it so happens just checked and the very latest news article in backs me up exactly on what I have just been saying that the gov & the EU don't see a deal as possible:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49240809
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« Reply #1765 on: August 05, 2019, 11:16:13 PM »
Maybe these odds makers were the same ones that had Hillary winning by 3/1.

She did get more votes .. 3 million more ..
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1766 on: August 05, 2019, 11:20:55 PM »
. I am dyslexic and in no way or inference want to be associated with the likes of your debating partner.

You are also someone who likes to suggest someone is fibbing, then runs away when it becomes clear you msde a mistake .. on here you cannot rely on being ' protected'.. 


 It is typical of you that you prefer to sit back and observe someone else get taken apart ;)
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1767 on: August 05, 2019, 11:31:30 PM »


Moby could quite likely be dyslexic. His focus on the flow diagram rather than the large written verse struck me as strange. That is what started me thinking that he could be dyslexic.

Like so many of your 'theories' - utter nonsense .

I've been typing in poor light  - using a wireless  wireless keyboard without back-lighting.. My GE based laptop's UK keyboard has lost the backlight and some keys do not work - after some water from the bath splashed on it ;) 

When back in the UK - will get it sorted .. I try to touch-type ..in the UK I have a system to TALK and type ..


Gettting to the flow chart  - It proved how a G.Election could be held on 26th October .. but I note you ducked that ..


« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 01:44:12 AM by msmob »
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline lyndontom

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« Reply #1768 on: August 06, 2019, 12:03:08 AM »
I find it curious as to why people say 'a no deal brexit is possible but still a deal is more likely' or similar. I don't see how a deal could possibly be done.


That's your problem. Moby has told you how many times to put your money where your mouth is and you've bottled it on each occasion. And at this moment you can get BETTER odds on a no-deal Brexit happening than you could have before.


The fact that YOU don't see it as a possibility (despite the odds to the contrary) and that you've had to change your hypothesis every step of the way speaks volumes.

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« Reply #1769 on: August 06, 2019, 01:58:57 AM »

That's your problem. Moby has told you how many times to put your money where your mouth is and you've bottled it on each occasion. And at this moment you can get BETTER odds on a no-deal Brexit happening than you could have before.


The fact that YOU don't see it as a possibility (despite the odds to the contrary) and that you've had to change your hypothesis every step of the way speaks volumes.

I've said before that No Deal could have been achieved by the ERG group of Tories calling for a VoNC as the 31st March deadline approach so thereby stopping all the carry on that ensued. The ERG group chose not to do that, possibly as they may have got a drumming in an election under Theresa May even if their aim of leaving the EU under no deal was achieved as a result.

Previous to that I thought it might be possible to come to a deal with the EU. However, that all changed when the EU blatantly scuppered Theresa May's Chequers/EU Deal but including the ridiculous backstop provision that no UK Parliament would likely sign up too. The fact that they refuse to budge from that means that no deal is the best way out. The EU's awkwardness means it's not something we wish to be tied to through an awkward deal and the EU deal had elements of that.

I have not substantially changed my hypothesis along the way. Decisions are made and events occur that change the political landscape a little but I have always said Brexit must happen, I voted Leave and I have always said I believe it will happen. I like many others believed Theresa May when she adamantly said unequivocally many ti es that it will happen in the 31st March. I like many others felt badly let down that she then back out of that when the 31st came along and we didn't leave.

I believe this time it will certainly happen. Boris has to go for it or the Tory Party will tear itself apart then the electorate will tear it apart probably permanently. I'm telling Mobers that his ideas that Remain MP's are going to stop Brexit are wring, I have been consistent in saying that and I have been right in saying that.
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« Reply #1770 on: August 06, 2019, 02:14:58 AM »
Like so many of your 'theories' - utter nonsense .

I've been typing in poor light  - using a wireless  wireless keyboard without back-lighting.. My GE based laptop's UK keyboard has lost the backlight and some keys do not work - after some water from the bath splashed on it ;) 

When back in the UK - will get it sorted .. I try to touch-type ..in the UK I have a system to TALK and type ..


Gettting to the flow chart  - It proved how a G.Election could be held on 26th October .. but I note you ducked that ..

Yes it could be held by the 26th October, Boris will know that but do you think knowing that Boris is going to allow Corbyn to call a VoNC to get there. No Boris will stand up first in the Commons when it gets back and Call a General Election. Even if Corbyn for in first with a call for  a VoNC Boris could subsequently stand up and call a General Election that would dissolve Parliament and remove the scheduling of a VoNC vote. It looks better for Boris that he calls a General Election before then.

The fact that Dominic Cummings and other Tories have come out and made statements. The fact that Boris and Corbyn have come out and made statements all show that they are all aware of where everyone stands on the issue. So Boris will know he needs to trump Corbyn by calling for a General Election as a very first matter of business in return after recess.

So it's highly unlikely for there to be a General Election before the 31st October. Boris will know it gives he's chances a lot better if he can take the wind out of the sails of the Brexit Party by showing we will have already left the EU.
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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« Reply #1771 on: August 06, 2019, 02:55:01 AM »
Read your post,

It makes no sense ..

As ever, you simply make a lot of noise when busted ..

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1772 on: August 06, 2019, 04:58:47 AM »
Read your post,

It makes no sense ..

As ever, you simply make a lot of noise when busted ..

I know if you're dyslexic my post won't make sense. Neither will much of the news articles you read online, you will only understand part of them which unfortunately is not enough to gain a proper understanding big the topic.

I have to be honest with you Mobe, I don't think the written word is for you. That's no reason not to try of course, and I admire your courage, but you are unfortunately not grasping the more articulate points a lot of these articles make.

I think you are no doubt happiest in the computer programming world of odd words, numbers and perculiar phrases. Well each to their own as they say.

If I were you I would seriously consider taking your lead from me on this brexit subject ;)
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« Reply #1773 on: August 06, 2019, 05:31:30 AM »
I know if you're dyslexic my post won't make sense. Neither will much of the news articles you read online, you will only understand part of them which unfortunately is not enough to gain a proper understanding big the topic.

I have to be honest with you Mobe, I don't think the written word is for you. That's no reason not to try of course, and I admire your courage, but you are unfortunately not grasping the more articulate points a lot of these articles make.

I think you are no doubt happiest in the computer programming world of odd words, numbers and perculiar phrases. Well each to their own as they say.

If I were you I would seriously consider taking your lead from me on this brexit subject ;)


I am not here defending Moby in this, as I have no horse in the race - BUT - You do realise how ridiculous you sound, given your poor grasp of the English language and how rarely your ramblings make any coherent sense at all? You can't even spell correctly with an autocorrect function available to you. Your articulation and comprehension skills are severely lacking and your understanding of this and other subjects is generally poor.


Do us all a favour, come back here on 31st October and tell us how right or wrong you were. I cannot for a second believe that you are so ahead of the rest of the country/world in predicting what the outcome of all of this will be...

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« Reply #1774 on: August 06, 2019, 08:07:36 AM »
“We will see it as giving Britain an artificial comparative advantage and make us think about the need to retaliate against Britain, not to welcome Britain with new trade agreements.”
“Britain has much less to give than Europe as a whole did, therefore less reason for the United States to make concessions,” he said. “You make more concessions dealing with a wealthy man than you do dealing with a poor man.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/06/brexit-clinton-treasury-secretary-larry-summers-dismisses-desperate-uk-hopes-of-us-trade-deal

Remind us again of all the trade advantages Brexit will bring, Trench.
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