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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 162786 times)

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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1875 on: August 25, 2019, 10:53:40 AM »
Trench,

I realise you ain't the brightest bulb in the socket, but I have ALWAYS stated that N.Ireland's border with the rest of the EU is why there'll be no 'no deal' brexit

NOTHING has changed .

Something has changed. The Tories can no longer count on a majority... So the ejector button is about to be pressed on the DUP.

Boris knows he can accomplish both regaining a Tory majority and achieving No Deal Credit by default by call a General Election as soon as Parliament returns. He is facing very limited time in office anyway if he delayed calling a GE so he might as well do it sooner.

The summer recess has been a great gift to Boris as it allows him and his government to prepare for No Deal Brexit without Parliament getting in the way.

Your 'Real Politick' will soon be kicking you in the butt when you realise that there will be a hard border in NI. Both sides will move to talk of it being inevitable once the 31st October date starts to near, ready that passport of yours Mobers :D
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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« Reply #1876 on: August 25, 2019, 03:02:42 PM »
Boris is indeed convincing some  thebexitparty.com supporters ...no one else..


If the pro remain parties work together...he is toast ..whether he calls a GE or not...

The Observer published a leaked document where by he was sounding out the possibility of suspending parliament....

He is snookered.

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1877 on: August 25, 2019, 04:33:47 PM »
Boris is indeed convincing some  thebexitparty.com supporters ...no one else..


If the pro remain parties work together...he is toast ..whether he calls a GE or not...

The Observer published a leaked document where by he was sounding out the possibility of suspending parliament....

He is snookered.

You really think Labour and the Lib Dems will enter into an electoral pact?

That will never happen, not in this upcoming General Election. The other minor parties don't hold enough clout for it to make much difference in terms of gaming extra seats.

So long as the Brexit Party and the Tories don't go head to head in pro leave seats Boris has a chance.

There is no need to suspend Parliament, that will happen when Boris calls a General Election anyway, it will be less fuss for him to do so.
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« Reply #1878 on: August 25, 2019, 09:16:18 PM »
You really think Labour and the Lib Dems will enter into an electoral pact?

That will never happen, not in this upcoming General Election. The other minor parties don't hold enough clout for it to make much difference in terms of gaming extra seats.

So long as the Brexit Party and the Tories don't go head to head in pro leave seats Boris has a chance.

There is no need to suspend Parliament, that will happen when Boris calls a General Election anyway, it will be less fuss for him to do so.

This all is becoming quite interesting as the game comes to a conclusion. 

So, as I understand things:

1.  The PM is the first to speak after recess.
2.  If he calls for a general election (and does he get the chance to name the date?) then there is no further debate?
3.  He has the opportunity to name a date AFTER the No Deal Brexit is scheduled to take effect.
4.  Once Brexit occurs, then the election is held but the electorate is faced with a fait accompli.

It would seem to me that everything is dependent on the PM calling a general election with the first words of the resumed parliament.   Tell me where I'm wrong.

Incidentally, the Big Train in a small Kansas town does not slow down.   It just rolls right on down the tracks. 
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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1879 on: August 26, 2019, 02:51:24 AM »
This all is becoming quite interesting as the game comes to a conclusion. 

So, as I understand things:

1.  The PM is the first to speak after recess.
2.  If he calls for a general election (and does he get the chance to name the date?) then there is no further debate?
3.  He has the opportunity to name a date AFTER the No Deal Brexit is scheduled to take effect.
4.  Once Brexit occurs, then the election is held but the electorate is faced with a fait accompli.

It would seem to me that everything is dependent on the PM calling a general election with the first words of the resumed parliament.   Tell me where I'm wrong.

Incidentally, the Big Train in a small Kansas town does not slow down.   It just rolls right on down the tracks.

Exactly Jone!

1). Yes

2). Yes

3). Yes

4). And Yes

I see what you mean by the big train now Jone, presumably one way or another that is the case, General Election and Brexit are now hopefully inevitable.

The one thing that may stop it is if Boris hesitates and allows the Remoaners in Parliament to take control. If he loses he's chance to deliver on Brexit then he is likely to be up against the Brexit Party in a future General Election and lose badly. It's likely to destroy the Tory Party as it breaks apart into Leave & Remain factions and face electiral annialation.

So if Boris has any sense the first thing he will do upon the House returning after recess is stand up and call a General Election. You are right in saying that he gets the chance to speak first (unless he passes on doing so) and is likely to do so as a new sitting PM leading the government.

Even if he does not call one straight away if a no confidence vote is called for it would be an issue of that vote being scheduled in the coming days. The no confidence vote won't take place the moment after it is called for. That allows Boris the opportunity to trump the no confidence vote by calling for a General Election and hence no need for a no confidence vote.

In terms of image standing up straight off and calling for a General Election looks strongest. Boris recognising that he was not elected by the electorate as PM would look better if he looked to be seeking their mandate. He needs to set the General Election date after the 31st October or the Brexit Party won't trust him to deliver Brexit and they'll split the Leave vote.

Unlike yourself Moby doesn't understand the basic mechanics as you have just outlined Jone. He always thinks the Remain side will triumph but he fails to understand a). How divided Remain are, and b). That the Parliamentary process/timetable is no longer in their favour.

A mightly big serving of humble pie coming for Mobers :D
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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1880 on: August 26, 2019, 03:42:27 AM »
So yes, Boris is a guy who likes to come out strongly and is often not that afraid of a challenge. It's odds on that he will call a General Election straight off the bat as first order of business when Parliament resumes. It will solve all of his problems regarding Brexit and renew his term in office from 2.5 years to 5 years, if he wins. Having a longer term in office before another General Election will give him more time to work to give Brexit a good go.

Boris is only down to a majority of 1 MP with DUP support - this is including Tory Remain rebels who he can't count upon so he's majority is all but lost. Both Labour and the Tories look like they have an MP each where there will be a by-election in the coming weeks. Jared O'Mara for Labour who is stepping down and possibly may face fraud charges anyway, and a Tory MP who is up in court on Sex offense charges who if convicted will lose he's seat. Labour's seat us likely to either go to themselves or perhaps more likely to the Lib Dems, the Tory seat Dover & Deal, Labour could take. In which case Boris would lose he's Majority and would be a Minority government of -1 wide open to fall at any time.

That's why I said to Mobe that the Lib Winning the Brecon by-election seat is likely to make No Deal Brexit more likely not less. He did not believe me at the time but no doubt now is realising the folly of his ways. It also serves as a warning to Boris what may happen in a General Election if he faces running against the Brexit Party without having achieved a Brexit in the 31st October.

I'm personally am really hoping Boris does call a General Election from the off when Parliament resumes it will kick some life into all of this, resolve the paralysis Parliament is in and secure Brexit I am hoping :)
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« Reply #1881 on: August 27, 2019, 12:12:44 AM »
Trench,

I know you are desperate..but as a Brit, I would expect you to know that Jone was talking out of his arse.


At the end of summer recess The House of Commons continues as normal ...no special opening ceremony and the PM does NOT speak first..

 There is a timetable for debates on the HoC website.

For sure, I am sure all the parties will have been looking how to hijack the schedule.

As I see it...if there is no way on Tuesday...then expect fun and games at PM Question time or the N.Ireland Bill..

Boris must stop Parliament by proroguing or calling a GE after the scheduled leave date and the combined opposition who know they can stop  leaving without a deal.

The legality of Proroguing will be rule re legality later this week.

Quit with the amateur hour
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Offline Boethius

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« Reply #1882 on: August 27, 2019, 01:17:31 AM »
It would seem to me that everything is dependent on the PM calling a general election with the first words of the resumed parliament.   Tell me where I'm wrong.


The UK now has fixed term elections.  Therefore, the PM cannot just call a general election.  The only way he can do so is either by introducing, and succeeding, on a no confidence motion, or securing the backing of at least 2/3 of all sitting MPs. 


This post was composed without the aid of google.
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« Reply #1883 on: August 27, 2019, 02:16:57 AM »
Sorry, Boethius?

Where DID you read that?

Mrs May called a General Election on her being elected ( not BY the electorate) to be PM, after Cameron !fell on his sword'.

She THOUGHT she would be getting a mandate for Brexit and ended up with a much reduced minority and needing the help of the Democratic Unionists to 'govern'....

Boris has inherited this poison chalice and Trench thinks he'd do better))
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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« Reply #1884 on: August 27, 2019, 02:46:54 AM »
Trench,

I know you are desperate..but as a Brit, I would expect you to know that Jone was talking out of his arse.


At the end of summer recess The House of Commons continues as normal ...no special opening ceremony and the PM does NOT speak first..

 There is a timetable for debates on the HoC website.

For sure, I am sure all the parties will have been looking how to hijack the schedule.

As I see it...if there is no way on Tuesday...then expect fun and games at PM Question time or the N.Ireland Bill..

Boris must stop Parliament by proroguing or calling a GE after the scheduled leave date and the combined opposition who know they can stop  leaving without a deal.

The legality of Proroguing will be rule re legality later this week.

Quit with the amateur hour

Mobe, if the PM wishes to address the House I'm pretty sure they take precedence as PM. Possibly there may be debates where a vote of no confidence cannot be called as the topic of discussion is already decided. If this is so Boris could well leave such a General Election announcement to the first moment where a vote of no confidence and other issues may be called, quite possibly PMQ's. In any case I am pretty sure Boris does not have to be in Parliament to call a General Election, he can do it anyway, then follow the usual process to follow through.
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« Reply #1885 on: August 27, 2019, 03:00:50 AM »
Sorry, Boethius?

Where DID you read that?

Mrs May called a General Election on her being elected ( not BY the electorate) to be PM, after Cameron !fell on his sword'.

She THOUGHT she would be getting a mandate for Brexit and ended up with a much reduced minority and needing the help of the Democratic Unionists to 'govern'....

Boris has inherited this poison chalice and Trench thinks he'd do better))

She means that the PM can call a General Election whereby the PM needs two thirds of MP's to agree to dissolve Parliament to enact a General Election.

Mrs May messed up her General Election by following bad advice of her 'advisors' who were really her chums without any campaigning skill or experience. They advised her badly to talk about taxing elderly inheritance instead off keeping on Brexit. Canny old Corbyn capitalised on this by snatching votes off disgruntled ex-Lib Dem supporting students by offering to wipe student debt. He knew he would not get enough seats to need deliver on this promise (though he wasn't that far off) but it would help close the gap enough so he could remain as Labour leader when everyone expected him to take a pounding in the Election.

Boris this time around has the advantage of a fresh go at it. Once May had fluffed it then later lost more credibility with Brexit she had no chance. Boris just needs to put the General Election after the Brexit date if 31st Oct to see off the Brexit Party.

This time there is a chance for Parliament to be more reflective of the referendum result. It would have been last time if Theresa May had not fluffed it. Expect to say bye bye to your Remoan MP's Mobe :)
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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« Reply #1886 on: August 27, 2019, 03:17:35 AM »
I think the main thing that you're not seeing Move, and a lot of Remoaners is the immense opportunity Brexit can bring. More than any trade deal with the US or wherever it gives the Europe the opportunity to start anew. The EU has gone wrong, it is an experiment that has now gone wrong just like the League of Nations the forerunner to the United Nations went wrong.

Once we leave the EU we will have the opportunity to devise a new European Free Trade organisation, free from the hefty payments made to Eastern Europe and European civil servants pensions. An organisation where the cost and bureaucracy will be much lighter and an organisation that will not impede into a country's sovereignty. Just merely allowing free trade with a few fringe benefits for members at little cost with countries ultimately controlling their own immigration.

Loads of West European nations would want to join such an organisation to get away from the burdensone costs of the EU. Once we tip the balance in our favour we will have them all joining. The centre of this new European organisation could be in London to safeguard against it going wrong like the EEC/EU did. Eastern Europe can either have the EU or go their own way. They will be back safely in the east and no longer being artificially propped up with west European nations money. That I foresee as a better way forward for all of Europe.
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« Reply #1887 on: August 27, 2019, 03:25:54 AM »
Boethius,

I humbly apologise for doubting you re the revised law re needing a two thirds majority of MPs re a General Election.

Ironically, this means that Boris might try to call one, fail in achieving to get said majority and face humiliation in the House of Commons...
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« Reply #1888 on: August 27, 2019, 03:27:07 AM »

The UK now has fixed term elections.  Therefore, the PM cannot just call a general election.  The only way he can do so is either by introducing, and succeeding, on a no confidence motion, or securing the backing of at least 2/3 of all sitting MPs. 


This post was composed without the aid of google.

She is correct.
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« Reply #1889 on: August 27, 2019, 03:40:43 AM »
I think the main thing that you're not seeing Move, and a lot of Remoaners is the immense opportunity Brexit can bring. More than any trade deal with the US or wherever it gives the Europe the opportunity to start anew. The EU has gone wrong, it is an experiment that has now gone wrong just like the League of Nations the forerunner to the United Nations went wrong.

Once we leave the EU we will have the opportunity to devise a new European Free Trade organisation, free from the hefty payments made to Eastern Europe and European civil servants pensions. An organisation where the cost and bureaucracy will be much lighter and an organisation that will not impede into a country's sovereignty. Just merely allowing free trade with a few fringe benefits for members at little cost with countries ultimately controlling their own immigration.

Loads of West European nations would want to join such an organisation to get away from the burdensone costs of the EU. Once we tip the balance in our favour we will have them all joining. The centre of this new European organisation could be in London to safeguard against it going wrong like the EEC/EU did. Eastern Europe can either have the EU or go their own way. They will be back safely in the east and no longer being artificially propped up with west European nations money. That I foresee as a better way forward for all of Europe.

Trench,

This 'remoaner' sees that leaving the EU ..particularly without agreement..is a massive blow for peace in Ireland....

The EU are our main trading partners and a deal with the US cannot replace it.

Plus  .Trampu cannot deliver on any deal as the lower house has clearly indicated it will block any deal having a negative effect on Ireland.

Plus it will come at too high a price re allowing certain animal and agricultural  processes that will defo throw up barriers and checks as the EU do not want GMO food  and hormone injected meat, etc., arriving via N.Ireland.

Do YOU want privatised healthcare replacing the NHS?


Unlike you, I understand the consequences  of stupidity and realise that 'brextremists' have opened  entities in IRL to ensure their actions mean they will be 'OK' while you suffer and they need not fear EU wide tax dodging laws...in the event of crashing out..

Only Muppets like you cannot see they are being played

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« Reply #1890 on: August 27, 2019, 03:45:27 AM »
Thank you, Boethius for setting me straight.

Johnson does not have the 2/3 rds majority needed to call for a general election under his terms if it means that the general election would fall past the deadline for a No Deal Brexit. 

But it also is not a given that a VofNC will succeed.  And even if it does, what assurances are there that Johnson would step down?   So, ultimately what would happen if Johnson does not yield?   The Queen?


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« Reply #1891 on: August 27, 2019, 03:56:25 AM »
Jone,

I note you could not manage to thank me for pointing out your procedural howlers re Boris' options and your now kite flying a la Trench...

There has never been a situation whereby these Parliamentary  Conventions have needed to be challenged , but Boris' option to suspend Parliament  will, hopefully be decided one way or the other, this week.

Edited to add: I do not think Boris would try to bring HM into the equation.

He might not like the result.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 04:03:29 AM by msmob »
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« Reply #1892 on: August 27, 2019, 04:10:56 AM »
Boethius pointed out my mistake.  Not you.  You contested her until you looked up the law and saw she was right.  Amazing that someone from Canada had to tell you what your own law was and you still got it wrong.  That's why you had to apologize to her.   For someone who claims to know everything about UK politics, you sure get a lot wrong.

My interest is purely in the mechanics of what is going to happen.  I believe that the UK will be forced into a situation that it heretofore has not had to face since the laws changed in 2011.   So, yes, there is an opportunity that some of the Tory MPs will vote for No Confidence.   There is even a chance that the Northern Ireland team will vote for it.  If so, there is a possibility that Boris might fail to yield creating a crisis that would require the Queen's intervention.  That would be a very interesting proposition.

To an outsider looking in, this is very interesting stuff.
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« Reply #1893 on: August 27, 2019, 05:18:04 AM »
I am going to assume you are not being obtuse, Jone.

Was it not you that suggested the PM would be first to speak after the Summer recess?

That was a mistake.

I actually appreciate you interest ...these are scary times.
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« Reply #1894 on: August 27, 2019, 06:33:58 AM »
Thank you, Boethius for setting me straight.

Johnson does not have the 2/3 rds majority needed to call for a general election under his terms if it means that the general election would fall past the deadline for a No Deal Brexit. 

But it also is not a given that a VofNC will succeed.  And even if it does, what assurances are there that Johnson would step down?   So, ultimately what would happen if Johnson does not yield?   The Queen?

Boris does not have 2/3 rds majority in the house but if he calls for a General Election it will be highly unlikely that the opposition will not support the call even if he ends up placing the election date after the 31st October. I don't believe any rejection to a call for a General Election has ever been made by the opposition. It would be highly embarrassing for the opposition to vote against particularly after Corbyn has repeatedly asked for one and seen it as a way to resolve the Brexit issue more than a referendum. I hoping it will happen soon in early September for an election date after the 31st October so the politicians can all stop speaking rubbish and get to the heart of the matter.
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« Reply #1895 on: August 27, 2019, 12:04:10 PM »
Trench,

The no.1 aim of most opposition parties is to stop us crashing out in a no deal scenario...

If by stopping a General Election called for to achieve their worst nightmare, then OF COURSE making Boris agree to a compromise....a people's vote, followed by a GE ...including yet another delay to article 50 would be democratic.


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« Reply #1896 on: August 27, 2019, 01:04:55 PM »
Johnson does not have the 2/3 rds majority needed to call for a general election under his terms if it means that the general election would fall past the deadline for a No Deal Brexit. 

But it also is not a given that a VofNC will succeed.  And even if it does, what assurances are there that Johnson would step down?   So, ultimately what would happen if Johnson does not yield?   The Queen?

If a vote of no confidence succeeds, and no alternative government can be appointed (not a given here, though it is unlikely one could be appointed), then the ruling government has 14 days to "turn around" that non confidence vote.  If it can't do so, then the PM advises the Queen of the election date.  Parliament is dissolved 25 days before the election date.  Some of these changes were incorporated in the election date legislation. 

The above interested me as I think it's more democratic than the previous way no confidence motions worked (the previous manner is still the way they work in Canada).  The UK has less demand for party discipline than in Canada, and, therefore, is more democratic.  Canada has had six minority governments brought down by votes of non confidence.  Here, they are automatic if a budget bill fails in the House of Commons.

This post was composed without the aid of google.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2019, 01:29:51 PM by Boethius »
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« Reply #1897 on: August 27, 2019, 01:32:12 PM »
Per Bloomberg:

Sept. 3     House of Commons returns

Sept. 4     Earliest date the House of Commons can vote on a motion of confidence in the government

Sept. 5     Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg sets out whether Parliament will break up for conference recess. MPs could block the three-week adjournment

Sept. 18   Date by which Johnson must show he can command a majority in Parliament if he lost the vote on Sept. 4

Sept. 19   Last date to trigger 5-week process for a general election before the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline provided the U.K. sticks with the convention of voting on a Thursday

Sept. 24   Johnson goes to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly

Sept. 28   Conservative Party conference begins
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Online Trenchcoat

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Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #1898 on: August 28, 2019, 02:38:59 AM »
Per Bloomberg:

Sept. 3     House of Commons returns

Sept. 4     Earliest date the House of Commons can vote on a motion of confidence in the government

Sept. 5     Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg sets out whether Parliament will break up for conference recess. MPs could block the three-week adjournment

Sept. 18   Date by which Johnson must show he can command a majority in Parliament if he lost the vote on Sept. 4

Sept. 19   Last date to trigger 5-week process for a general election before the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline provided the U.K. sticks with the convention of voting on a Thursday

Sept. 24   Johnson goes to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly

Sept. 28   Conservative Party conference begins

Interesting info Jone, if Boris can hold out to a conference recess then Boris can argue that there was no choice in the General Election date being after the 31st October. If timetable gives little opportunity for a vote of no confidence till then they might do that since in any case it looks like the opposition are split on what happens after a vote of no confidence so are not necessarily united behind it.

News in today though is that some government minister's are suggesting Boris is going to suspend Parliament:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-49493632

This is a safer option for Boris particularly if Farage is threatening to run his Brexit Party in a General Election regardless. If Boris can suspend Parliament over the 31st October deadline then hold a later General Election the Brexit Party will have little ground to stand on as will UKIP.

Will be interesting to see how this develops and if it does good to see Moby squirm :)
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« Reply #1899 on: August 28, 2019, 04:30:31 AM »
Yep, looking like Remoaners are really wetting their panties over this one so it's sounding like it's really good news for us Leavers :D

The news obviously has not reached Mobers yet or he would be straight on here lol.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 04:46:05 AM by Trenchcoat »
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

 

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