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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 128771 times)

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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #75 on: June 23, 2016, 10:53:49 PM »
The Brits have voted against the ESTABLISMENT.  Is America next?

Indeed, Gator. The anti Trump people will be paying attention to this referendum.

Very few people supposedly 'in the know' in the UK expected/called this result.

How many people supposedly 'in the know' are telling the American voting public there's no way Trump can win? Maybe a few less convincingly this a.m.

Congrats to the people of the UK. I posted up thread based on my time residing in the UK I would have probably voted to exit as well. I think they've made the right decision.

Now we wait and see if any other countries follow suit.

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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #76 on: June 23, 2016, 10:58:02 PM »
Brexit is bad for Ukraine, BTW, as the UK has always been one of Ukraine's staunchest allies within the EU.  France, Italy and Germany, not so much.

I doubt the UK will change it's stance on Ukraine, Bo. Infact, the UK might even strengthen it's stance on Ukraine now that (in reasonable time) it's free of the watering down effects of the EU policies towards Russia.

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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #77 on: June 23, 2016, 11:05:49 PM »
I doubt the UK will change it's stance on Ukraine, Bo. Infact, the UK might even strengthen it's stance on Ukraine now that (in reasonable time) it's free of the watering down effects of the EU policies towards Russia.

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Yes.  However, the UK had a big influence on EU policy in this respect. 
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #78 on: June 23, 2016, 11:25:50 PM »

Yes.  However, the UK had a big influence on EU policy in this respect.

That's an interesting insight, I never thought of the effect of UK on EU policy.

Does anybody know the the time frame of the exit?
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #79 on: June 23, 2016, 11:31:19 PM »
I read two years.
To love someone means to see him as God intended him. - Fyodor Dostoevksy

Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #80 on: June 23, 2016, 11:35:20 PM »
That's an interesting insight, I never thought of the effect of UK on EU policy.

Does anybody know the the time frame of the exit?

Two years according to the BBC (and now Bo  ;)  )...Article 50 was mentioned...

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/

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Offline LiveFromUkraine

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #81 on: June 24, 2016, 02:31:18 AM »
You write your posts as if they were your opinion on how you see your facts. You want to give UK papers the credit for calling those who disagree stupid, link their articles. From what I've read, healthier nations in Europe are more likely to leave the EU than struggling nations who don't function well.

At least we're back to talking to each other. It's a start.


When did less educated become stupid?  That is the same as saying ignorance is stupidity.  Neither is true.


It makes sense if you think about it.  Jobs that people with, say high school education, would have competition from EU immigrants that would accept lower paid jobs.

Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #82 on: June 24, 2016, 02:49:24 AM »

It is a good example of small minded  ignorance believing in short term  self interest overiding common sense.
Maybe when the currency collapses   he will be able to change all those roubles  that he bought( that he was  so strong in recommending others buy at about 35=USD$1) back into GBP and buy up England on the cheap !


That didn't take long.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/23/markets-live-will-sterling-surge-or-slump-as-the-eu-referendum-c/

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Offline JayH

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #83 on: June 24, 2016, 03:19:28 AM »

That didn't take long.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/23/markets-live-will-sterling-surge-or-slump-as-the-eu-referendum-c/

Going to go down a LOOONNNNNGGGG  way yet.

Another issue not mentioned in thread yet -- the UK as we have known it is likely to break up .None of this is a good thing.
Quote
"Scotland clearly and decisively voted to remain part of the EU", - said Sturgeon.
Earlier, the minister claimed that Brexit could be the first step towards the independence of Scotland. Against the background of general discontent with the former leader of the Scottish Nationalist Alex Salmond made a requirement of holding a second referendum on the independence of Scotland."
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 03:35:38 AM by JayH »
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
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Offline BC

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #84 on: June 24, 2016, 04:10:56 AM »
Exiting is a long process, short term both EUR and GBP will be down a bit but no disaster.  EUR will likely stabilize at pre exit rates but GBP down for the long haul.  Scotland and N.Ireland referendums if held would likely push the GBP down further as both seem to be favorable to remaining in EU.

Sure, unexpected result but no disaster yet.


Offline Darth_Budda

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #85 on: June 24, 2016, 04:23:41 AM »
WOW,,
I am surprised...


The UK has voted itself into some major problems...

Now Irish and Scottish national parties will try even harder to break away so they can rejoin the EU....


I also wounder if this will cause the EU to move to the left,, politically..


Also,, I guess this makes the UK an official American colony.. Once they split with the EU...
 
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 04:30:30 AM by Darth_Budda »
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Offline LiveFromUkraine

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #86 on: June 24, 2016, 05:28:47 AM »
Exiting is a long process, short term both EUR and GBP will be down a bit but no disaster.  EUR will likely stabilize at pre exit rates but GBP down for the long haul.  Scotland and N.Ireland referendums if held would likely push the GBP down further as both seem to be favorable to remaining in EU.

Sure, unexpected result but no disaster yet.


I agree with BC.  I think it's a little too early to be calling this a financial disaster.  These things take time to play out. 

Some interesting times ahead...

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #87 on: June 24, 2016, 06:08:07 AM »
How can you say that when all the polls have "stay" and "leave" both running at around 50%?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/eu-referendum-poll-tracker-and-odds1/

So much for your polls, eh?  ;D

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #88 on: June 24, 2016, 07:32:42 AM »

I agree with BC.  I think it's a little too early to be calling this a financial disaster.  These things take time to play out. 

Some interesting times ahead...

My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #89 on: June 24, 2016, 07:55:06 AM »
  This was a country that, at one point, ruled almost half the world and, almost until WWII, was the world's powerhouse.


Exactly. The people in the UK are very capable yet "educated" people think life doesn't get any better outside the EU. Go figure.
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Offline msmobyone

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #90 on: June 24, 2016, 07:58:03 AM »
The people in the UK are very capable yet "educated" people

Last night proved otherwise... those with degrees tended to vote remain...go figure THAT
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #91 on: June 24, 2016, 07:58:38 AM »

How did they vote against the establishment?


To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets.  Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there. 

Offline LiveFromUkraine

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #92 on: June 24, 2016, 08:08:00 AM »
My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy


It will be interesting to watch.  I have been reading a little about exiting the EU.  It sounds incredibly lengthy and I don't doubt the UK will have a tough time of it.  I wonder what will happen if agreements can't be made during the process.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 08:09:45 AM by LiveFromUkraine »

Offline msmobyone

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #93 on: June 24, 2016, 08:10:31 AM »
To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets.  Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there.

Phil,

your caveat was well advised..

When did you try to freely trade with the US from Europe.. ?

I don't mean buying selling on ebay....How the UK expects to make trade deals in 2 years - when the EU/ US are near stalemate re The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

Britain will be a minnow and we just voted to lose jobs and increase the cost of living

Please excuse the Curmudgeon in my posts ..he will be cured by being reunited with his loved one ;)

Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #94 on: June 24, 2016, 08:26:40 AM »

It will be interesting to watch.  I have been reading a little about exiting the EU.  It sounds incredibly lengthy and I don't doubt the UK will have a tough time of it.  I wonder what will happen if agreements can't be made during the process.

Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums

Besides, the frumpy frau is already calling for everyone to make nice...

“Firstly, the future of the EU depends on how well we prove ourselves to be willing and capable of making the right decisions and not estranging the UK.”

http://www.thelocal.de/20160624/merkel-brexit-has-cut-into-european-unity-eu

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Offline BC

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #95 on: June 24, 2016, 08:55:41 AM »
Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums


Oh no great worries..  Voices are swinging as far and wide as currencies and markets at the moment. All eyes will be on UK, the process and results going forward.  EU will not make it so easy for UK to exit.  I doubt there will be other serious moves except in UK (Scotland, N.Ireland) for a few years to come.

Note in your article that some Italians were in favor of dropping or changing the EURO currency and not exiting EU.  Former low wage countries like Italy, Spain, Greece etc  have suffered most with perceived increases in cost of life related to implementation of the EURO.

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #96 on: June 24, 2016, 09:16:53 AM »
Last night proved otherwise... those with degrees tended to vote remain...go figure THAT

I did figure that. Many who are educated think it's best to stay with the EU out of comfort(their own) and fear based on losing that comfort. Many of the officers in the American colonial army and Benjamin Franklin had lots to lose going to war with the British Empire. They owned land and were wealthy. By going to war and leading the effort, they risked it all but if they kept the status quo bowing to the Empire, they would guarantee living the rest of their lives well to do. Fortunately they did care about other Americans to risk going at life without the British Empire. People in the UK doesn't have to risk war leaving the EU. Americans are doing better than most from top to bottom. We have the highest percentages of millionaires and billionaires. Even our poor and homeless are fatter than their equivalents elsewhere in the world. Give Brexit a chance to succeed. You will experience some discomfort in the first few years but it may be the right decision for future generations. If not, the EU will take you back. They don't like you leaving either.

Since the pound is down, A lot of businesses are going to want to buy goods from the UK. A lot of investors will be investing in the pound. Where the pound is at today isn't realistic but only there because some people panicked.

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.


I agree it was good overall. One of it's original purposes was to create a bond between neighbors which would discourage future wars. It served it's purpose and today NATO is adequate enough to continue that mission.
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #97 on: June 24, 2016, 09:50:28 AM »
Oh no great worries..  Voices are swinging as far and wide as currencies and markets at the moment. All eyes will be on UK, the process and results going forward.  EU will not make it so easy for UK to exit.  I doubt there will be other serious moves except in UK (Scotland, N.Ireland) for a few years to come.

Note in your article that some Italians were in favor of dropping or changing the EURO currency and not exiting EU.  Former low wage countries like Italy, Spain, Greece etc  have suffered most with perceived increases in cost of life related to implementation of the EURO.

I'm not worried. I've never been more than luke warm on the EU in the first place. If it folds I wouldn't have a problem with it. I even called for it's dissolution last year in relation to their policies regarding Russia and Ukraine.

I'm of the opinion the media frenzy and market corrections will abate in a day or two and in a year or two people will be wondering what all the fuss was about.

Scotland's a different matter however, if the EU is weakened they'll not be so inclined to jump the UK bandwagon onto a sinking ship.

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #98 on: June 24, 2016, 09:57:28 AM »

Britain will be a minnow and we just voted to lose jobs and increase the cost of living

This was already happening.  Not the "minnow" but the decline of the global economy and how that affects the standard of living not just in EK but in the OECD to include the US. 

The economies of the OECD, measured in rate of real income,  have been slowing for a long time.  The sum of gross domestic savings plus entitlements have been constant for decades.  Each increase in entitlements has been offset by a decrease in savings.   This decreases capital available for  investment, vital for growth.   

I just now listened to Alan Greenspan.  He is concerned less with recession and more with stagnation.  If the 4% growth can not be achieved to support the increase in entitlements, rate of entitlements will need to be slowed.   This is not happening, and is increasing in many forms such as Obamacare.  It is not the time for providing free education, supporting more refugees, and taking other "feel good" and noble steps.  Some day the piper must be paid.  As Greenspan said, there is something called "double entry bookkeeping."  Greenspan has never been more concerned about the future.  And Greenspan was near complacent before the collapse of Lehman and the housing market.  Greenspan disagrees with the Brexit, saying it is "corrosive." 

Lets examine  your forecast of the UK being a "minnow."  It is all relative.  If the ECB is destined for even more problems such as supporting the southern tier economies, would you prefer to be independent or be part of the northern tier necessary to prop up the ECB and the Euro.  It will be bad either way, but maybe better alone.  Being the contrarian is frequently correct in investing. 

IMO the Brexit merely accelerates the inevitable for all of us if change is not made in programs such as entitlements.   

Caveat No. 2:  I am not an economist.  But what do they know?   


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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #99 on: June 24, 2016, 10:29:31 AM »
I believe we in the US have less to worry about than the Europeans.

If we can not stem the growth of government and entitlements, we can always print money, more money than EU nations.   And while some may contend this inflates our currency, making it worthless, the US can always park an aircraft carrier or two offshore of a another nation's capital and demand "Cash our check!"

 

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