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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 102175 times)

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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #175 on: June 26, 2016, 11:48:48 AM »
Given this, I wonder why Cameron did not first try to negotiate something with the EU, something that would have appeased the masses of voters demanding change. 

He did attempt that. It was largely about access to benefits. He was shot down by the EU.
Quote
There are always people who feel disenfranchised by the establishment.  If the number of such people remains small, the status quo continues.  When the number becomes large, some change occurs.  And if no changes are made, blowhards and rascals such as Trump gain support. 

I agree. However, the closeness of the vote suggests half the population does not feel disenfranchised.

Quote
BTW, is the term Tory considered polite in the UK?  The term Tory had a different meaning in the US and was a point of hostility. 

It is used commonly both there and in Canada.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 11:59:47 AM by Boethius »
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #176 on: June 26, 2016, 12:04:12 PM »
Breaking news:
 PM Sturgeon states that Scotland may veto Brexit.

That is an interesting twist.

I assume the referendum results must be ratified by Parliament. Given the Tories were divided on Brexit, and a majority of the other party members supported remain, if such a vote is required, it may not pass.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 12:24:22 PM by Boethius »
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Offline Steamer

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #177 on: June 26, 2016, 12:33:17 PM »
Cameron probably asked Obama to say something during his visit.  Nevertheless, his "back of the queue"comment was disingenuous.





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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #178 on: June 26, 2016, 12:34:27 PM »


It ["Tory"] is used commonly both there and in Canada.

Here, patriots  tarred and feathered Tories, and many Tories eventually left the US. 

Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #179 on: June 26, 2016, 12:44:04 PM »
Here, patriots  tarred and feathered Tories, and many Tories eventually left the US.


Yes, many moved to Canada.   
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #180 on: June 26, 2016, 12:47:47 PM »
That is an interesting twist.

I assume the referendum results must be ratified by Parliament. Given the Tories were divided on Brexit, and a majority of the other party members supported remain, if such a vote is required, it may not pass.

It may be interesting but not viable. The First Minister is herself under pressure to resign and her party only holds 63 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament.

She must tread lightly and with sure footing. Any set back in any proposal she may back/put forward must be successful or her government will fall.

Hollyrood does not have the Constitutional authority to veto. They can however withhold Legislative Consent.

It would again boil down to an Independence Referendum based on the premise Independence and EU or UK and Exit.

I believe that the Scots (half my extended family reside there), given a choice between remaining in the EU and remaining in the UK will more than likely choose to remain in the UK. However, I think they are heading towards a second referendum and it will be close.

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« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 12:49:18 PM by Brasscasing »
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #181 on: June 26, 2016, 12:50:06 PM »
Cameron probably asked Obama to say something during his visit. 


I think so too.



Quote
Nevertheless, his "back of the queue"comment was disingenuous.


I took that as they are already negotiating with other countries, and such negotiations tend to be drawn out affairs.  Trade treaties are not drafted and ratified by legislative bodies overnight.
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #182 on: June 26, 2016, 12:57:38 PM »
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #183 on: June 26, 2016, 01:01:55 PM »
I took that as they are already negotiating with other countries, and such negotiations tend to be drawn out affairs.  Trade treaties are not drafted and ratified by legislative bodies overnight.

It was a dumb thing to say and now he and Hillary will get beat up with it.

None that that matters much. Obama is done making trade deals and he won't
be president when the Brexit happens and hopefully things aren't nearly as bad
as the naysayers say.

« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 01:06:52 PM by 2tallbill »
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #184 on: June 26, 2016, 01:08:47 PM »
It was not dumb to point out reality.
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #185 on: June 26, 2016, 01:19:14 PM »
This is from The Guardian, right after Obama spoke -
Quote
At a stroke, he had crushed not only a core part of the leavers’ economic argument – that it’ll be a breeze for Britain to exit the EU and trade just as prosperously as a solo nation – but something bigger: the notion that a brighter, non-European future beckons. Obama burst that bubble.

It seems to me, in the aftermath of what has been occurring, that Obama's warning was accurate.  The consequences are already occurring, not even a week after the vote.  Some MP's who backed Brexit have already stated immigration from the EU will not be affected.  Nigel Farage famously stated the UK gives 350 million pounds to the EU weekly, and that money would be used to fund the NHS after a Brexit vote.  He has distanced himself from that statement, partly, I assume, because that number was based partly on trade numbers rather than cash outlays, and partly because even cash outlays from the UK make their way back into the UK.  See Cornwall's predicament, as an example -

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html
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Offline Boethius

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #186 on: June 26, 2016, 01:27:01 PM »
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #187 on: June 26, 2016, 02:03:07 PM »
WOW,,
I am surprised...


The UK has voted itself into some major problems...

Now Irish and Scottish national parties will try even harder to break away so they can rejoin the EU....


I also wounder if this will cause the EU to move to the left,, politically..


Also,, I guess this makes the UK an official American colony.. Once they split with the EU...


Quite the contrary. The Brexit has been the starting gun for Europe to move far to the right. Just look at all the Fascist ultra-right parties rejoicing and licking their chops.
"Mr Putin is discovering that global finance is more frightened of the US Securities and Exchange Commission than Russian T90 tanks."

Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #188 on: June 26, 2016, 02:07:10 PM »
My guess is that the central banks will look to punish GB for a while. Maybe even enough to draw them into war. They don't like it one bit. How much and to what degree remains to be seen. They likely won't punish for long as GB is the 5th largest economy


FP, I really don't understand nor grasp your statement. Why on Earth would banks want to punish GB? I'm betting that right now the financial markets are scrambling to maintain some sort of fiscal stability because what's coming up is a major roller-coaster ride. There are no winners here, from a financial point of view.
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #189 on: June 26, 2016, 02:11:09 PM »
This is from The Guardian, right after Obama spoke -
It seems to me, in the aftermath of what has been occurring, that Obama's warning was accurate.  The consequences are already occurring, not even a week after the vote. Some MP's who backed Brexit have already stated immigration from the EU will not be affected.  Nigel Farage famously stated the UK gives 350 million pounds to the EU weekly, and that money would be used to fund the NHS after a Brexit vote.  He has distanced himself from that statement, partly, I assume, because that number was based partly on trade numbers rather than cash outlays, and partly because even cash outlays from the UK make their way back into the UK.  See Cornwall's predicament, as an example -

Well, not quite. What these MPs are referring to is the French border treaties (Le Touquet Accord)  that are holding the migrants on the French side of the channel.

The French are reporting the same thing...

French border deal won't be affected by Brexit, says Paris

..."French government says British exit from European Union will not lead to changes in treaties concerning refugees and migrants"...

..."The French deal with Britain that keeps border checks, and thousands of refugees and migrants, on the French side of the Channel will remain in place and won’t be affected by the Brexit vote, the Paris government has said."...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/25/french-border-deal-wont-be-affected-by-brexit-paris

It's been 48 hours since the referendum. Their PM has stood down and it's gonna take a little time for the UK to get their own EU/UK team together, negotiations formulated and on the table.

No one except those in the Remain camp it seems is expecting an instantaneous *Poof* we have new immigration laws. Give them the weekend at least. ;)

Obama's warnings were and are not accurate in that ...

1. We have no idea whether it's going to be easy or hard for the UK to exit because no negotiations have started yet including dropping the Article 50 writ.

However, it'll be the EU that determines whether this is a hard road or easy road. The frumpy frau is trying to bring the squawking EU ministers in line but based on the remarks of some of those ministers I think they're going try and make it as difficult as possible for the UK to make a fair exit deal; and

2. We have no idea whether or not a brighter non European Union future beckons but what we do know is that the majority of the people in the UK believe that a brighter non European Union future is possible and have voted accordingly.

So, imo, Obama hasn't burst any bubbles because his dire warnings, other than being perceived as inappropriate and/or threatening were, when they were uttered and are today, irrelevant.

Brass
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 02:15:30 PM by Brasscasing »
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #190 on: June 26, 2016, 02:12:48 PM »
To understand my point, look  beyond the UK governance (Tory, Labour, etc.) to the next layer, i. e. the EU.   

                                          EU = establishment. 

Now consider the degree to which UK governance knelt down to EU not only in respect but in submission.  From having done consulting work for the EU, the offices in Belgium in my opinion had much power, and their power was growing. 

Was EU "Good" or "Bad" since its inception?   It seemed to be 'good" on the whole.  However. never judge the future based on past performance.   Instead look at the trends of policies and the like.

What we have now is a return towards free markets. Greed is not good, but "Free markets" is good (over the long term).  We are now in the short term of major change, and to be precise, the beginning of change.  Long term?

What I found interesting is how narrow the vote went for such a huge black and white decision.  This is not a vote where the narrowly winning party will need to compromise closely with the narrowly losing party to make "gray" decisions.  "Out" is "out," there is no gray. 

Caveat:  I am an American, so what do I know about the EU! I look forward to the diverse opinions of people who live, sleep and work there.


Now, explain this to me because what I see is a move towards protectionism and import barriers. If you mean free markets between two cafes down the street, then you have a point.
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #192 on: June 26, 2016, 02:15:35 PM »
Based on the rumblings from several other EU countries this a.m. there may not be an EU to negotiate an exit with in two years....

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682339/Brexit-spreads-across-Europe-Italy-France-Holland-Denmark-all-call-for-referendums

Besides, the frumpy frau is already calling for everyone to make nice...

“Firstly, the future of the EU depends on how well we prove ourselves to be willing and capable of making the right decisions and not estranging the UK.”

http://www.thelocal.de/20160624/merkel-brexit-has-cut-into-european-unity-eu

Brass


This is what I meant by EUR moving to the far right. Nationalism is on the rise and you know what happened when European countries started that bullshit.
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #193 on: June 26, 2016, 02:18:39 PM »
I believe we in the US have less to worry about than the Europeans.

If we can not stem the growth of government and entitlements, we can always print money, more money than EU nations.   And while some may contend this inflates our currency, making it worthless, the US can always park an aircraft carrier or two offshore of a another nation's capital and demand "Cash our check!"


Wow, how illuminating.
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #194 on: June 26, 2016, 02:22:25 PM »
They are more sheep-like, after being indoctrinated for more years than the others?


You are so funny. I can't stop laughing.


The useful idiot repeating what a demagouge states, because the useful idiot does not have the proper background to discern bullshit from reality, is NOT indoctrinated and is the master of his own domain.


You should be doing stand up comedy.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 02:43:09 PM by AnonMod »
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #195 on: June 26, 2016, 02:24:52 PM »
I disagree.  Obama is still the "dumber."


Correction: Obama is still darker of skin.
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Offline Brasscasing

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #196 on: June 26, 2016, 02:26:48 PM »
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20940.msg434839#msg434839

I think it's broader than that, Brass.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-eu-referendum-racial-racism-abuse-hate-crime-reported-latest-leave-immigration-a7104191.html

This will have to be monitored and controlled by the authorities. Criminal activity is a by product of major events, always has been. I'm sure the media will be reporting on every single incident, Brexit related or otherwise, for the next little while. It's good press.

Brass
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #197 on: June 26, 2016, 02:28:30 PM »
Questions from an Ignorant Yank

I may be wrong but its seems the  UK has never fully embraced the concept of the EU.

Please help.


With pleasure.


No country in Europe embraced the concept of the EU. NONE.
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #198 on: June 26, 2016, 02:37:09 PM »


In the meantime 300 plus billion was wiped off the value of shares, on day one of us being better off ...

Yup, 'real' smart move by 'intelligent' people who 'won back control' ..


My good friend invited me to lunch because it was my birthday on the 24th. He didn't look too happy. He lost $60K that day.
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Offline Muzh

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #199 on: June 26, 2016, 02:43:18 PM »

lol  Basically, you didn't get your way and now you want to change the rules in order to get your way.   I wonder what would happen if the roles were reversed?  I have little doubt the words daft and clueless would be thrown around.  You seem to be channeling JayH in many of your responses.


I was listening o some radio reports and many of the interviewed were say basically the same: they didn't expect Brexit to win, all they wanted was to send a message to the "establishment."


Very well "educated" guess, ain't it?
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