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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 128162 times)

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Offline BdHvA

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #550 on: October 29, 2018, 06:22:52 PM »
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

This map shows how much Eastern Bloc EU members have benefited from EU money taken from leading EU nation economies such as the UK. All the East European Nations outside the EU are in Red. Apparently the EU feel Eastern Europe is owed money from leading EU nation economies despite all our hard work over time without good reason other than their project to improve their economy at the expense of our economy.

Sorry Trench, that is not what the article shows. Why not read it again, look at it again, and take out your sharp pencil. The Eastern European countries have indeed benefited from the largess of the EU. But that is not the problem in the big picture.
Experierence is not what happens to you. It is what you do with what happens to you. A. Huxley

Offline DaveNY

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #551 on: October 29, 2018, 08:05:31 PM »
Merkel's downfall is a result of her aligning herself to the EU during the asylum crises. He let in loads of asyum seekers to the detriment of her people, her ego got the better of her. Her people are not thanking her for it with what they are having to endure from it. The far right are becoming popular once again I'm Germany as a result. Her move to show how Germany has moved on from the Nazi era to more liberal times has backfired on her greatly and brought the very politics she wished to trounce back as a contender.

I personally don't think her leaving will affect the German economy much. They are an industrious and hard working people. The bigger problem is that unless someone replaces her with presence the EU will be left without someone with leadreship quality in its leading economy.

Expect instead for the UK economy to rival the German economy once Brexit is achieved. Britain does not have the economic woes of France or Italy. Unleashed from the EU Britain will be able to do again what it has always done best, be international traders. The UK will be able to leverage this area and it's financial clout to bring it's economy into contention with Germany for the leading economy in Europe for the first time.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

This map shows how much Eastern Bloc EU members have benefited from EU money taken from leading EU nation economies such as the UK. All the East European Nations outside the EU are in Red. Apparently the EU feel Eastern Europe is owed money from leading EU nation economies despite all our hard work over time without good reason other than their project to improve their economy at the expense of our economy.

There's no doubt that EU money has boosted the economies of many FSU states in the EU. The Baltic states and Poland are prime examples. The average monthly wage in these countries is significantly higher than in Russia. And East and West Germany reunification has also boosted the wages in the former East Germany.

I've spoken to many Russians over the years who've noticed this and wondered aloud why Russians have been left behind. Many Russians have gone even further and said why have we been left behind and the oligarchs have gotten rich? This is perhaps one of the reasons why so many Russians have left for the west.

As for the UK overtaking Germany in the near future I doubt it. The UK only has about 80% the population of Germany and about 70% the land area. Both vital components if a nation is to prosper in the area of manufacturing. Maybe in the more distant future the UK will be able to push its economy past Germany's. If that is to be done the UK will need to find new jobs for their people. Perhaps more IT, banking, ecommerce, etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_average_wage

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #552 on: October 29, 2018, 08:35:23 PM »


As for the UK overtaking Germany in the near future I doubt it. The UK only has about 80% the population of Germany and about 70% the land area.


Not sure why you would believe such  are vital ?   Plenty of nations with smaller land masses and higher population densities - e.g. Netherlands / Luxembourg to puncture your assertions

BTW the UK is only 67% of Germany by land mass (242495 km squared   357386 km squared, respectively)   ..I know you DID say 'about' but  ;)

Thanks for the interesting stats



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Offline DaveNY

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #553 on: October 29, 2018, 09:02:12 PM »
Not sure why you would believe such  are vital ?   Plenty of nations with smaller land masses and higher population densities - e.g. Netherlands / Luxembourg to puncture your assertions

BTW the UK is only 67% of Germany by land mass (242495 km squared   357386 km squared, respectively)   ..I know you DID say 'about' but  ;)

Thanks for the interesting stats

None of those countries you mentioned are close in GDP to the UK or Germany. Both countries have low populations and small land area. As to why population and land area are important if a country is service oriented it needs educated people for such services as banking, IT, etc. If a country has a large manufacturing component they need land for the manufacturing and production of materials for manufacturing, steel, aluminum, coal mining, etc. Then of course the country needs people to mine the coal, make the steel and manufacture the products. In general neither the Netherlands or Luxembourg can match Germany or the UK in either area.


     

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #554 on: October 29, 2018, 09:20:00 PM »
None of those countries you mentioned are close in GDP to the UK or Germany.


   

Hmm, You rely on pure GDP ?

I'm much more a fan of GDP per capita as a more valid stat ..

Luxembourg tops the stats..Germany is 17th and the UK 22nd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita



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Offline DaveNY

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #555 on: October 29, 2018, 10:40:31 PM »
Hmm, You rely on pure GDP ?

I'm much more a fan of GDP per capita as a more valid stat ..

Luxembourg tops the stats..Germany is 17th and the UK 22nd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Do you think Luxembourg would allow a few million of the asylum seekers that are crossing the Med to move in? What about after Brexit? Maybe a few million Brits want to move to the continent?

Luxembourg only has 600,000 people, of course it only has 2600 km2. Might be a little crowded if a few million Brits or asylum seekers moved in?

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #556 on: October 30, 2018, 12:58:06 AM »
Do you think Luxembourg would allow a few million of the asylum seekers that are crossing the Med to move in?

They have open borders, are part of Schengen and did not opt out of the Directive on handing sudden influxes of refugees ...

What about after Brexit? Maybe a few million Brits want to move to the continent?

Who knows,

For now, I'd be more worried about the Brits who  cannot get citizenship's of other EU nations - those living IN a third EU nation - in the event of a 'no deal' scenario

Luxembourg only has 600,000 people, of course it only has 2600 km2. Might be a little crowded if a few million Brits or asylum seekers moved in?

Your red-herring is plain daft - on what basis would such a claim be ?
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #557 on: October 30, 2018, 04:02:39 AM »

For now, I'd be more worried about the Brits who  cannot get citizenship's of other EU nations - those living IN a third EU nation - in the event of a 'no deal' scenario

They can either get out before 31st March or go the Irish route if they put the time in. So it won't be a completely closed option for them. Likewise immigration to other non-EU countries may become easier once the flood gates of immigrants from Eastern Europe into thd UK are closed. Otherwise countries just view the UK as a channel through which a lot more people than they would hope for would pass such as the US for example.
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Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #558 on: October 30, 2018, 04:13:38 AM »
They can either get out before 31st March or go the Irish route if they put the time in.


Just the sort of dim witted 'riposte! I would expect from you....though you will now try to suggest it was 'humour'

So it won't be a completely closed option for them. Likewise immigration to other non-EU countries may become easier once the flood gates of immigrants from Eastern Europe into thd UK are closed. Otherwise countries just view the UK as a channel through which a lot more people than they would hope for would pass such as the US for example.

))

Another insight into Trench's 'cognitive skills

So, now all the E.European  immigrants are 'rushing'  here to eventually get US green cards ?))))

Your daily posts prove that brainer folk voted to stay...))
« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 05:41:51 AM by msmob »
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #559 on: October 30, 2018, 05:34:30 AM »
Not humour at all Mobe. That's what you're not getting about Brexit Mobe. It offers the UK the chance of preferable terms not just with the EU but with many other countries both financially and person wise. Particularly though for the EU it gives us a more preferable position with regard to immigration to the UK. It helps reduce the amount of people coming in from the EU whilst still engaging on decent terms with the EU So safeguarding us from too lax immigration policy. As a popular destination of choice for most East Europeans unfortunately even being a non-schengen member is not enough. Brexit will give us chance to have the exact immigration policy we need.
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Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #560 on: October 30, 2018, 05:51:52 AM »
Not humour at all Mobe. That's what you're not getting about Brexit Mobe. It offers the UK the chance of preferable terms not just with the EU but with many other countries both financially and person wise. Particularly though for the EU it gives us a more preferable position with regard to immigration to the UK. It helps reduce the amount of people coming in from the EU whilst still engaging on decent terms with the EU So safeguarding us from too lax immigration policy. As a popular destination of choice for most East Europeans unfortunately even being a non-schengen member is not enough. Brexit will give us chance to have the exact immigration policy we need.

1/ "Preferable terms" : WTO default trade  tariffs ? ..'Coz that is what Brexit wack-jobs seek

2/ Entertain us with how the UK leaving the UK will 'stop' migrants seeking to get here ? IF you think things through -it could be possible that EU nations will not be too fussy at stopping them - what's their incentive ? It is a constant source of hilarity to me that Dover voted to leave - as they are more tha likely to see an upsurge in attempts to arrive and do you think the French will take 'em back ?

3/ I'm already witnessing the 'immigration policy we need' in the form of hoops non EU citizens who are critical skills compliant ... a 'cap' of 20,700 a year of super smart people ....Please define your idea of 'utopia' ..banning all these migrants ? .... 

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #561 on: October 30, 2018, 07:11:04 AM »
1/ "Preferable terms" : WTO default trade  tariffs ? ..'Coz that is what Brexit wack-jobs seek

2/ Entertain us with how the UK leaving the UK will 'stop' migrants seeking to get here ? IF you think things through -it could be possible that EU nations will not be too fussy at stopping them - what's their incentive ? It is a constant source of hilarity to me that Dover voted to leave - as they are more tha likely to see an upsurge in attempts to arrive and do you think the French will take 'em back ?

3/ I'm already witnessing the 'immigration policy we need' in the form of hoops non EU citizens who are critical skills compliant ... a 'cap' of 20,700 a year of super smart people ....Please define your idea of 'utopia' ..banning all these migrants ? ....

Migrants find it hard crossing the English channel Mobe, they did before plus they will find it difficult/of not impossible to find employment. For the Polish, etc they will find it easier to go to other EU countries, France perhaps, I'm sure they'll be pleased :)

Really Mobe, there are enough super smart people here, you're talking to one ;D no need to import them. We are often touted as having one of the best University system's in the world - and then we go cap in hand wanting to source smart/skilled people from around the world  :cluebat:

We need confidence in ourselves and not do wimping out and crawling for the easy solution that causes long term damage to our nation. Namely snubbing the talent we already got for some ready baked bods from abroad for a quick profit.
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #562 on: October 30, 2018, 07:13:51 AM »

Sorry Trench, that is not what the article shows. Why not read it again, look at it again, and take out your sharp pencil. The Eastern European countries have indeed benefited from the largess of the EU. But that is not the problem in the big picture.


Essentially those baltic states and countries like Poland would be red like Ukraine, Belarus, etc if the EU did not hand them vast amounts of money to do up their countries.
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Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #563 on: October 30, 2018, 07:32:28 AM »
Migrants find it hard crossing the English channel Mobe, they did before plus they will find it difficult/of not impossible to find employment. For the Polish, etc they will find it easier to go to other EU countries, France perhaps, I'm sure they'll be pleased :)

I know this is hard for you, but France ensures the illegals don't get on the ferries / through the tunnel. Do you REALLY think they'll be so like minded for a UK crashing out of the EU ?


Really Mobe, there are enough super smart people here, you're talking to one ;D no need to import them. We are often touted as having one of the best University system's in the world - and then we go cap in hand wanting to source smart/skilled people from around the world  :cluebat:

You just demonstrated why your self-anointed status is risible ! 

Do you not understand that many 'British' success stories were immigrants ?  The UK's University Chancellors, and scientists do not seem to sure your viewpoint


We need confidence in ourselves and not do wimping out and crawling for the easy solution that causes long term damage to our nation. Namely snubbing the talent we already got for some ready baked bods from abroad for a quick profit.

There's job shortages in many  sectors - esp the NHS - before Brexit - because EU / EEA staff are LEAVING

Our NHS will be worse and the govt is going to LIFT Visa caps to 'cope' ... 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nhs-immigration-cap-staff-shortage-training-fast-track-visa-a8399046.html

"the government will announce that it is abolishing the “cap” for recruiting nurses and doctors from outside the EU – and presumably, post-Brexit, from inside the EU, too. That such a decision had become inevitable, however, does not make it either right or desirable – and I say that as someone who has recently found it nigh impossible to make a GP appointment without a delay of at least three weeks, or at all.

Not that NHS staff shortages – or the government’s response to them – are anything new."

Another subject that you are demonstrably unaware of ..



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Offline BdHvA

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #564 on: October 30, 2018, 08:09:59 AM »
Essentially those baltic states and countries like Poland would be red like Ukraine, Belarus, etc if the EU did not hand them vast amounts of money to do up their countries.


WOW! Is all I can say you are amazing. An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man. It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal with simples for those who are challenged.

1990 Poland leaves the Soviet sphere as the wall comes down. This process began a decade earlier.

1993 The European Union is formed.

2003 Poland votes to join the Euro Community.

The investment that came from Brussels was rather limited. Foreign companies indeed did invest in Poland and this was essential for there success. But the reality of Poland today is due to Polish leaders and people. Sadly the same can not be said of Ukraine.


Experierence is not what happens to you. It is what you do with what happens to you. A. Huxley

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #565 on: October 30, 2018, 08:34:48 AM »

 It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal ..


..With BdHvA's 'compliment'

You have yet to point out ONE instance of this ( do you mean) wRiggle ?...


Remember where you are - on here - if you make something up - I AM allowed to ask you to back it up  ;)

OK...  Trenchie ... can't wait for any E,European lady you might suggest coming to live with you  reading your posts ..

 



« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 08:37:13 AM by msmob »
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #566 on: October 30, 2018, 10:27:08 AM »


WOW! Is all I can say you are amazing. An anti-immigrant clod head, and an ignorant and biased man. It is amusing how you will try to wiggle almost as much as Moby.

Lets deal with simples for those who are challenged.

1990 Poland leaves the Soviet sphere as the wall comes down. This process began a decade earlier.

1993 The European Union is formed.

2003 Poland votes to join the Euro Community.

The investment that came from Brussels was rather limited. Foreign companies indeed did invest in Poland and this was essential for there success. But the reality of Poland today is due to Polish leaders and people. Sadly the same can not be said of Ukraine.


This shows total member contributions, as you can see the UK put in a lot more than Poland, etc:

http://www.statista.com/statistics/316691/european-union-eu-budget-share-of-contributions/

... and this shows who gets more back than they put in:

http://inews.co.uk/news/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

In addition the EU Charge us for membership but East European nations actually get paid for being members, lol

Another problem is the EU takes on a lot of debt on top of all the contributions to pay for even more stuff, moreso in East European Nations. That is going to come home to roost at some point, perhaps another European Crises in the next decade. I think we will be pleased to be standing well clear of that one, think Great Depression 1930's type of scenes.

Before Poland joined the EU they were just as poor as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc they were a basket case. Polish were stowing away on ships trying to get into the UK, not in big numbers but the odd few here and there. With big money from the EU and money being sent back from Polish workers in the UK (also helping them to alleviate their unemployemnt) Poland is now in a more prosperous state than similar countries such as Ukraine & Belarus as Dave has told you also. I don't think we are both wrong on this it is a known fact, plus I have actually 'been' to these countries  :D

The only point you have something on is that Ukrainian people are in general I feel of a different make up to Polish people. I'm not saying Ukrainains are lazy, some work long hours though not necessarily hard work but Polish people are very work minded. I find once you get to know them they can be a bit more relaxed but work seems to be where they start at in life. The same I do not feel is true of most Ukrainians, they are a bit more relaxed and enjoyment orientateed I think, some can no doubt work hard but I don't think they start from that point in life.

This has been a recent dilemna for me, why? because I find that Belarus people have a similar mindset to Polish people, they too seem seem to start from a work mindset, but that is ,oving off the point a bit here so I'll bring it up in a new thread: http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=23249.0
 
« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 11:04:46 AM by Trenchcoat »
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Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #567 on: October 30, 2018, 10:45:18 AM »
This shows total member contributions, as you can see the UK put in a lot more than Poland, etc:

http://www.statista.com/statistics/316691/european-union-eu-budget-share-of-contributions/

... and this shows who gets more back than they put in:

http://inews.co.uk/news/charts/much-uk-pays-eu-much-get-back/

In addition the EU Charge us for membership but East European nations actually get paid for being members, lol

and ? ..  Did you stop to think - even for a second - that emerging economies have more spending power ?  Poles came here, paid their taxes, national insurance and dud the crappy jobs Brits were too lazy to do  - They opened new biz and the UK shops made sure their favourites are available here  .. a bit like the Irish having Guinness

Another problem is the EU takes on a lot of debt on top of all the contributions to pay for even more stuff, moreso in East European Nations. That is going to come home to roost at some point, perhaps another European Crises in the next decade. I think we will be pleased to be standing well clear of that one, think Great Depression 1930's type of scenes.

I don't know where you are 'learning' this stuff, but the doom merchants have seen a few crunch point moments and the Euro is stronger than the Dollar - since it kicked off ...Whoops

Before Poland joined the EU they were just as poor as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, etc they were a basket case. Polish were stowing away on ships trying to get into the UK, not in big numbers but the odd few here and there. With big money from the EU and money being sent back from Polish workers in the UK (also helping them to alleviate their unemployemnt) Poland is now in a more prosperous state than similar countries such as Ukraine & Belarus as Dave has told you also. I don't think we are both wrong on this it is a known fact, plus I have actually 'been' to these countries  :D

You might have been - but as usual your powers of deduction - from dating to economics are constantly 'faulty'

Many Poles who came here left because the GBP got weeker v their currency and THEIR economy has improved - whilst our - thanks to 'Brexit uncertainty' has stalled. 


The only point you have something on is that Ukrainian people are in general I feel of a different make up to Polish people. I'm not saying Ukrainains are lazy, some work long hours though not necessarily hard work but Polish people are very work minded. I find once you get to know them they can be a bit more relaxed but work seems to be where they start at in life. The same I do not feel is true of most Ukrainians, they are a bit more relaxed and enjoyment orientateed I think, some can no doubt work hard but I don't think they start from that point in life.

Methinks you have begun to wake up .. The Poles came here and learnt  - a lot  - I see it with Former Soviet Union folk that come here... they adapt and become hard working.  I do not think it is a 'national thang' ... those that 'get on their bikes' - to better themselves - tend to be the ones most likely to succeed


This has been a recent dilemna for me, why? because I find that Belarus people have a similar mindset to Polish people, they too seem seem to start from a work mindset, but that is ,oving off the point a bit here so I'll bring it up in a new thread.

Based on other 'revelations' of yours - I'm sure it with be 'interesting' .   Many Belarus folk have had the ability to visit Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.  I know some REALLY smart folk from Belarus and am sure they would benefit from closer relations with the EU - if Moscow allowed

'Sorry' but where's the negative re allowing people to improve themselves ? 

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #568 on: October 30, 2018, 11:11:07 AM »
and ? ..  Did you stop to think - even for a second - that emerging economies have more spending power ?  Poles came here, paid their taxes, national insurance and dud the crappy jobs Brits were too lazy to do

'Sorry' but where's the negative re allowing people to improve themselves ?

That's BS Mobe, 'Someone' did those jobs before the Polish came here & the Polish were only allowed in about 10 years ago. That's right British people did those jobs. Its a complate lie that British people don't want to do those jobs. its the migrant huggers stealing the same lie that Mexicans do jobs US people don't want to do as a justification for them being here, its complete BS.

Think fruit picking jobs in the suimmer - many studets are off them so they can and did use to do those jobs, unemployed locals too who find holding down one same job for too long too difficult, etc.

If they want to improve themselves they can do in their own country and improve their country along with it.
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Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #569 on: October 30, 2018, 11:46:00 AM »
That's BS Mobe, 'Someone' did those jobs before the Polish came here & the Polish were only allowed in about 10 years ago.

GOTCHA
what was unemployment then and what is it now - You are BUSTED

There's loads of vacancies and Brits like you would rather work 3 day weeks ;)

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #570 on: October 30, 2018, 01:14:04 PM »
While you are picking yourself off the floor

Yet another example of the chaos awaiting employers and EU nationals quite legally working and residing

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46035919

"Firms may have to do "rigorous" checks on EU staff if there is a no-deal Brexit, a minister has suggested.

Caroline Nokes said employers wouldn't be able to tell the difference between people who had settled in the UK and those who had just arrived.

She also revealed the system for EU citizens to register for settled status still didn't work on Apple phones."

No doubt the same will apply to school kids, university students in the event the UK Govt cannot agree a deal with the EU  :deadhorse:
No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

Offline Blighty

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #571 on: October 30, 2018, 01:21:46 PM »
@msmob  ... You made a sweeping statement that "I don't know where you are 'learning' this stuff, but the doom merchants have seen a few crunch point moments and the Euro is stronger than the Dollar - since it kicked off ...Whoops"

That is not true when looking at the 10 years history of the €/$ exchange rate at
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=10Y

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #572 on: October 30, 2018, 01:35:50 PM »
@msmob  ... You made a sweeping statement ..

It was not a sweeping statement ...  I said from inception to the present day

http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency

Is the graph more often above or below the inception line ? Do you understand what that means ?

No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

Offline msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #573 on: October 30, 2018, 01:59:39 PM »
There'll be more Irish living in the UK than Poles, soon ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46030552

Irish passport applications from British applicants skyrocket


Not sure why they're shown in 'blue' when the EU passports are always reddish / brown

Trenchy, mentioned those coming into the UK might get speedier entrance than EU citizens ...    I expect he won't be popping over to France or going for romantic breaks in Prague for the weekend  - given he'll be watching me sail through while he queues !
No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #574 on: October 30, 2018, 02:15:18 PM »
It was not a sweeping statement ...  I said from inception to the present day

http://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency

Is the graph more often above or below the inception line ? Do you understand what that means ?


The initial value of the € on 04/01/1999 is a historical fact, which is irrelevant to the Brexit discusssion. You obviously live in the past, and fail to understand the importance of the recent trends for the €. It is weakening against the dollar, just like sterling.

Your argumentative style on both RWD and RUA is noted. I am a reasonable person, and do not have time to argue with you over the internet! You think that everyone is an idiot, whilst you alone are a genius. Keep taking the pills!

 

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