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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 50943 times)

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Online msmob

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« Reply #825 on: January 15, 2019, 05:20:42 PM »

Just a question of when she'll come over to a No Deal Brexit :)

Poor Trench

STILL posting bollox..

Mrs May has made it clear that that scenario is the least favoured option ..

The UK Pound rose as the likelihood of a 'no deal exit' just sank .. :thumbsup:

7/8 sitting MPs are not in favour of such an outcome ... it's not going to happen ..

Tomorrow, Mrs May will win her vote of no confidence and Labour will eventually realise the only way to defeat her govt is to take the 'People's Vote' option ..as THAT is something that Tory Remainers WILL vote for to defeat her

Article 50's clock WILL be stopped ..







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« Reply #826 on: January 15, 2019, 07:08:12 PM »
I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be an entire flip-flop of the government.   I think that the US is in for that in two years.  The days of populism and nationalism, in both countries, are numbered.  My favorite Sci Fi author, Robert Heinlein wrote, in a book called Double Star, that people can only accept so much change.   And then they need a respite.  But the changes remain and governments move, slowly, inexorably, to a more socialized structure.    His view was that the only test was how fast you get there.

The EU is, ultimately, the only way that Europe will be able to compete with the US and China.   That's just my opinion, and the citizens of the UK may certainly prove me wrong.

Don't know about the UK but I doubt the days of populism and nationalism are over in the US. That doesn't mean I think Trump is guaranteed a second term. He most certainly could lose but IMO not to Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren they're too far left and certainly anyone who is politically similar to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won't be elected. BTW Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can't run for president till she's at least 35.

If I had to pick a Democrat to vote for it's be someone like Mike Bloomberg, the former mayor of NYC or Kirsten Gillibrand the junior United States Senator from New York. Not because they're from NY state but because there are aspects of their politics I agree with.

IMO Bloomberg did a great job running NYC. True I disagreed with his attempts to stop the sale of large sizes of sugary drinks and his views on climate change are the opposite of mine but he did many things well. Unfortunately my understanding is he's uniformly hated by the executives of the DNC.

Gillibrand is well liked in the party. She's a woman so that will appeal to the liberals and she has experience in politics. Another important factor is if she won the presidency it would be an opening for Chelsea Clinton. There's ongoing talk in NY state that if there is an opening, especially in the US Senate, Chelsea would be appointed to a vacancy or would run if the vacancy happened prior to an election.

Chelsea could then gain some experience in politics and follow in her mother and father's footsteps. Who knows the 2032, 2036 or 2040 race could see her running for president if she could get into Congress soon.

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« Reply #827 on: January 15, 2019, 07:10:19 PM »
Poor Trench

STILL posting bollox..

Mrs May has made it clear that that scenario is the least favoured option ..

The UK Pound rose as the likelihood of a 'no deal exit' just sank .. :thumbsup:

7/8 sitting MPs are not in favour of such an outcome ... it's not going to happen ..

Tomorrow, Mrs May will win her vote of no confidence and Labour will eventually realise the only way to defeat her govt is to take the 'People's Vote' option ..as THAT is something that Tory Remainers WILL vote for to defeat her

Article 50's clock WILL be stopped ..


Unlikely Mobers, Theresa has set out her position many times previous - leaving end of March, no delaying Brexit, no second referendum, etc.

Now let me walk you through this :) Now why do you think Theresa held out the fig to Labour over cross party collaboration/discussion? Rhetorical question so I'll tell you. It's to ensure Remain Tory MP's back her tommorow. If she had moved straight to No Deal that would have spooked them and who knows. Corbyn's motion of no confidence played into her hands, she as decided holds it quickly, gets it out the way. Then after a period in which she 'tried' to wor with the opposition & hear them out she'll tell us no deal is the only viable option.

Remember, a Remain customs union or similar does nothing for her or her party - in fact it ruins it, those that believe in democratic mandate of the referendum would tear the party apart they would be so incensed. She 'needs' to get rid of the EU question from her party and the only way to do that now is by going to a no deal Brexit.

A second referendum digs her in the mess more, a no deal Brexit little more than a couple of months away is a quick, easy and pleasant looking exit strategy.
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #828 on: January 15, 2019, 08:47:09 PM »
Trench,

You just keep on proving you like to write lots that prove you don't think and cannot take in what's happned today.

IF you were confident, you'd have accepted my bet..

Last night brought a 'hard brexit' to the end




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« Reply #829 on: January 16, 2019, 06:09:03 PM »
Trench,

You just keep on proving you like to write lots that prove you don't think and cannot take in what's happned today.

IF you were confident, you'd have accepted my bet..

Last night brought a 'hard brexit' to the end

Looks like you're out of luck Mobe :D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46900367

Jeremy Corbyn won't work with Theresa May unless she rules out No Deal Brexit, lol.

He refused to meet with her and won't unless she does this. Now he knows that is an impossibility it would create civil war in the Tory Party and complete turmoil. Without Labour even taking up this fig leaf the idea of any cross party talks are going nowhere. Theresa is probably just running down the clock and trying to show she has tried all options anyway. The result will after a short interlude be a move towards a No Deal Brexit :D
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #830 on: January 16, 2019, 09:21:03 PM »
Looks like you're out of luck Mobe :D

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46900367

Jeremy Corbyn won't work with Theresa May unless she rules out No Deal Brexit, lol.

He refused to meet with her and won't unless she does this. Now he knows that is an impossibility it would create civil war in the Tory Party and complete turmoil. Without Labour even taking up this fig leaf the idea of any cross party talks are going nowhere. Theresa is probably just running down the clock and trying to show she has tried all options anyway. The result will after a short interlude be a move towards a No Deal Brexit :D

Trench,

More daft words and not accepting my bet - which - according to you - I'd 'lose' ;)

*I* don't want Corbyn running the nation .. but didn't you note that the first thing Mrs May said  after winning the no confidence vote ?

She was back to 'delivering Brexit ..'

The penny hasn't dropped, yet ..

LOTS of Tories voted to keep Corbyn from the reigns of power - but there'll still be no 'hard brexit'



« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 09:56:09 PM by msmob »

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« Reply #831 on: January 16, 2019, 09:54:06 PM »
Trench,

More daft words and no accepting my bet -which - according to you - I'd 'lose' ;)

*I* don't want Corbyn running the nation .. but didn't you note that the first thing Mrs May said  after winning the no confidence vote ?

She was back to 'delivering Brexit ..'

The penny hasn't dropped, yet ..

LOTS of Tories voted to keep Corbyn from the reigns of power - but there'll still be no 'hard brexit'

So let's get this straight Mobers, you think Corbyn is going to come around to co-operating with Theresa May. Who himself is at odds with his party in that he doesn't want a second referendum but instead a General Election. He also is generally in favour of Brexit but hides it. He would then also have to  convince the rest of his party who want way more in favour of Remain, a second referendum, customs union - none of which the main bulk of the Tory party want and which would break 'all' of Theresa May's red lines and promises, etc. All to end up with a situation that many would say doesn't deliver on Brexit and so the referendum still remains to be fulfilled. Then to still be left with the call to exit the EU, customs union of wharever in the many years ahead.

Bit of a 'reach' don't you think Mobe?

Getting an idea of how difficult and quiet frankly ludicrous such a move would be?

When in comparison she has just to wait out the two months to Brexit and put this issue to bed for good. No awkward deal tie ups, no busting the party over the issue.

Now what do you really think she'll go for ;)
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #832 on: January 16, 2019, 09:58:24 PM »
So let's get this straight Mobers, you think Corbyn is going to come around to co-operating with Theresa May. Who himself is at odds with his party in that he doesn't want a second referendum but instead a General Election. He also is generally in favour of Brexit but hides it. He would then also have to  convince the rest of his party who want way more in favour of Remain, a second referendum, customs union - none of which the main bulk of the Tory party want and which would break 'all' of Theresa May's red lines and promises, etc. All to end up with a situation that many would say doesn't deliver on Brexit and so the referendum still remains to be fulfilled. Then to still be left with the call to exit the EU, customs union of wharever in the many years ahead.

Bit of a 'reach' don't you think Mobe?

Getting an idea of how difficult and quiet frankly ludicrous such a move would be?

When in comparison she has just to wait out the two months to Brexit and put this issue to bed for good. No awkward deal tie ups, no busting the party over the issue.

Now what do you really think she'll go for ;)

There'll be no 'hard brexit' because:

Most MPs do not want it and nor do the EU - even Mrs May doesn't want it

The March 29th deadline will get put back ..

Take my bet and stop posting daft ..




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« Reply #833 on: January 17, 2019, 12:31:14 AM »
There'll be no 'hard brexit' because:

Most MPs do not want it and nor do the EU - even Mrs May doesn't want it

The March 29th deadline will get put back ..

Take my bet and stop posting daft ..

There not going to put the Brexit date back Mobers. It would upset the Tory Brexiteers too much, Theresa has repeatedly stated that is 'when' Brexit 'will' happen.

It's also bad negotiating strategy at any rate as if you put it back once it is then seen as being able to slide again so there would be no end to it. Plus doing so wouldn't help, Parliament would still be at loggerheads over the issue it would resolve nothing.

So Theresa will most likely move to what has been called a managed No Deal Brexit. She will go for a No Deal Brexit and piece together agreements with the EU bit by bit in the meantime both before and after Brexit on the smaller issues that can be readily agreed upon. At the end of the day that is really all that is left :)
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #834 on: January 17, 2019, 03:52:47 AM »
Still posting your 'theories'' that you have no conviction to wager on?

A bit like your dating expertise.... I understand))

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« Reply #835 on: January 17, 2019, 05:16:24 AM »
Still posting your 'theories'' that you have no conviction to wager on?

A bit like your dating expertise.... I understand))


The odds with the bookmakers are currently around 1/10 that there'll be no hard Brexit. The chances of us leaving the EU in just over 2 months, without a deal, are about the same as Trench marrying a FSU woman in my estimation.


Trench, you must live in the basement of that house with only this forum to keep you entertained. At what point will you let some logic and common sense enter your 'opinions' and thoughts?

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« Reply #836 on: January 17, 2019, 07:39:59 AM »

The odds with the bookmakers are currently around 1/10 that there'll be no hard Brexit. The chances of us leaving the EU in just over 2 months, without a deal, are about the same as Trench marrying a FSU woman in my estimation.


Trench, you must live in the basement of that house with only this forum to keep you entertained. At what point will you let some logic and common sense enter your 'opinions' and thoughts?

I have my own house, I will love it when we get to a No Deal Brexit shortly and you and Mobers have to eat your words and wipe plenty of egg of your face :D

Already the clock is being run down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46901217

So it helps Theresa get to the 29th Jan without a lot of carry on.

Then there literally is just 2 months till Brexit. If it comes to it the Brexiteers in the Tory party will call a vote of confidence in their own party to paralyse Parliament to see out the remaining time. Labour will back such a no confidence vote (as there is no limit on calling another one apart from looking foolish with repeated failure) as Jeremy Corbyn wants a General Election. No government legislation or similar can take place once a no confidence vote is lost and we head towards a General Election.

As can be seen from the BBC articles Theresa is rejecting removing No Deal as an option. In the one yesterday she is refusing joining a customs union. I also don't think she'll want the added hassle of a second referendum. So she has little to offer them and them offer her. It's basically a time eroding exercise, you can tell she has no love for the opposition parties nor want to actually work with them.

It will be all over soon :)
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #837 on: January 17, 2019, 07:48:38 AM »
I have my own house, I will love it when we get to a No Deal Brexit shortly and you and Mobers have to eat your words and wipe plenty of egg of your face :D

Already the clock is being run down:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46901217

So it helps Theresa get to the 29th Jan without a lot of carry on.

Then there literally is just 2 months till Brexit. If it comes to it the Brexiteers in the Tory party will call a vote of confidence in their own party to paralyse Parliament to see out the remaining time. Labour will back such a no confidence vote (as there is no limit on calling another one apart from looking foolish with repeated failure) as Jeremy Corbyn wants a General Election. No government legislation or similar can take place once a no confidence vote is lost and we head towards a General Election.

As can be seen from the BBC articles Theresa is rejecting removing No Deal as an option. In the one yesterday she is refusing joining a customs union. I also don't think she'll want the added hassle of a second referendum. So she has little to offer them and them offer her. It's basically a time eroding exercise, you can tell she has no love for the opposition parties nor want to actually work with them.

It will be all over soon :)


In that case, if you're that confident, put everything you have saved on the UK leaving Europe by 29 March at odds of 5/1. I hate Corbyn, but it's obvious to anyone that Labour won't discuss it without no deal being taken off the table. The people don't want it, the government doesn't want it. The UK won't be leaving Europe in just over 2 months. Get used to it.

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« Reply #838 on: January 17, 2019, 11:28:03 AM »

In that case, if you're that confident, put everything you have saved on the UK leaving Europe by 29 March at odds of 5/1. I hate Corbyn, but it's obvious to anyone that Labour won't discuss it without no deal being taken off the table. The people don't want it, the government doesn't want it. The UK won't be leaving Europe in just over 2 months. Get used to it.

I prefer the 10/1 odds, where was that? If I put on £100 I would get £1100 back.

William Hill are doing the 5/1 odds:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/13998097/UK+Brexit+status+on+30th+March+2019.html

Odds not as good at Ladbrokes:

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/



The thing you're not seeing Lyndon is that there is no concensus in Parliament, so whatever comes together by the 29th Jan if anything will be fruitless. If Theresa moves much to the second referendum/customs union it will enrage most of her party. She may use the sounding out to try and convince opposition MP's to take a second look at her EU deal and support it if she can use the 29th to show other option don't have the required support. I think this will fail, Tory Brexiteers still won't back her deal and I don't think opposition MP's will, they will at the end of the day want her to put of leaving the EU on 29th March and have a General Election to try and gain a majority for their own preffered option. So if anything they will probably come around to Corbyn's postion of calling for a General Election.

In the end it will be No Deal when all other option have been stumped :)
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #839 on: January 17, 2019, 11:36:29 AM »
The politicians and civil servants haven't got a clue what's going on so how some UK based skirt chasers on a forum do beats me.  Got your international driving permit yet or are you planning to be at the back of the queue

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« Reply #840 on: January 17, 2019, 12:03:03 PM »
I prefer the 10/1 odds, where was that? If I put on £100 I would get £1100 back.

William Hill are doing the 5/1 odds:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/13998097/UK+Brexit+status+on+30th+March+2019.html

Odds not as good at Ladbrokes:

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/



The thing you're not seeing Lyndon is that there is no concensus in Parliament, so whatever comes together by the 29th Jan if anything will be fruitless. If Theresa moves much to the second referendum/customs union it will enrage most of her party. She may use the sounding out to try and convince opposition MP's to take a second look at her EU deal and support it if she can use the 29th to show other option don't have the required support. I think this will fail, Tory Brexiteers still won't back her deal and I don't think opposition MP's will, they will at the end of the day want her to put of leaving the EU on 29th March and have a General Election to try and gain a majority for their own preffered option. So if anything they will probably come around to Corbyn's postion of calling for a General Election.

In the end it will be No Deal when all other option have been stumped :)


I'm seeing far more than you are. We will see come the end of March...


Again...try to read and comprehend properly. The odds on a 'no deal' happening are 5/1 and 1/10 against.

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« Reply #841 on: January 17, 2019, 12:10:50 PM »
The politicians and civil servants haven't got a clue what's going on so how some UK based skirt chasers on a forum do beats me.  Got your international driving permit yet or are you planning to be at the back of the queue


Well, if you turned your TV on you'd see that "they" do have 'a clue what's going on'. May's deal was never going to be accepted. A vote of no confidence was never going to be accepted.

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« Reply #842 on: January 17, 2019, 12:30:05 PM »
Ok they have a clue that brexit   is a completed mess but they have no clue about how to proceed

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« Reply #843 on: January 17, 2019, 12:49:30 PM »

In the end it will be No Deal when all other option have been stumped :)

:yawn:

Chicken

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« Reply #844 on: January 17, 2019, 03:09:58 PM »
Well looks like there's not enough support within Labour for a second referendum:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/corbyn-could-face-string-of-resignations-if-he-backs-peoples-vote

So there's little headway to make there.
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #845 on: January 17, 2019, 09:12:25 PM »
Poor 'ol Trench

still posting 'news' articles which point out UK polls demonstrating he is out of touch ..From your link...

"A snap poll conducted after the crushing defeat of May’s Brexit plan has found a 12-point lead for remaining in the EU – the largest margin since the 2016 vote."

Carry on clutching at straws
« Last Edit: January 17, 2019, 09:23:23 PM by msmob »

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« Reply #846 on: January 17, 2019, 09:22:02 PM »
The Grand Tour colleagues Jeremy Clarkson, James May, Theresa May's 3rd cousin, twice removed (might be made up) and Richard Hammond have slammed the perceived chaos of Brexit politics, and cast doubt on Mrs May’s ability to come up with a plan B.

The boys are definitely against Brexit and have voiced their opposition to Brexit in the past. With Clarkson saying of Brexit “It’s a complete clusterf***."


http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/entertainment/jeremy-clarkson-issues-foul-mouthed-summary-of-brexit-897845.html

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« Reply #847 on: January 17, 2019, 11:59:04 PM »
Poor 'ol Trench

still posting 'news' articles which point out UK polls demonstrating he is out of touch ..From your link...

"A snap poll conducted after the crushing defeat of May’s Brexit plan has found a 12-point lead for remaining in the EU – the largest margin since the 2016 vote."

Carry on clutching at straws

Mobe, it doesn't matter what some poll says. Referendums count, General Elections count, Parliamentary votes on legislation count. Some offbeat poll doesn't. No one is going to care what that poll says or any other or the person(s) with the axe to grind behind them.

Like it or not Corbyn is party leader and has already faced down a leadership challenge. This article also pints our that those that want a second referendum are woefully short of numbers in the Labour Party, just 77 will openly make it known, even if that number was doubled or even trebled it would still be too few. Plus they are in opposition so there really is no milage in calls for another referendum. Theresa will see there is not enough support to be had there and will move on - to No Deal :D
No Deal is Ideal :)

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« Reply #848 on: January 18, 2019, 01:05:23 AM »
Mobe, it doesn't matter what some poll says. Referendums count

Quite...and if there was one, now ... with less enlightened folk now seeing the issues ... the polls have been telling us the result ...

Folks are wiser now ....  Wiser folks, I mean

That you don't have the courage of conviction re my wager - proves you are frightened I'll be right ..I KNOW I'm right

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« Reply #849 on: January 18, 2019, 08:47:07 AM »
Quite...and if there was one, now ... with less enlightened folk now seeing the issues ... the polls have been telling us the result ...

Folks are wiser now ....  Wiser folks, I mean

That you don't have the courage of conviction re my wager - proves you are frightened I'll be right ..I KNOW I'm right

If you know you're right then perhaps you would like to tell us how you think it is going to all go down. You think we will stay in the EU as is or go into a Customs Union, etc ?

The Tory Brexiteers will accept neither as we see today:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu

Liam Fox is generally a moderate Tory Brexiteer, but when push comes to shove I'm pretty sure he would side with No Deal Brexit over any sort of Customs Union or similar with the EU.

You're just not getting that any other solution than a No Deal Brexit is hopelessly blocked Mobers. Making silly bets doesn't interest me, when No Deal Brexit passes and you're wiping an awful lot of egg of your face that will be payment enough :)
No Deal is Ideal :)

 

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