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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 101935 times)

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Online msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2175 on: September 18, 2019, 08:05:38 AM »
They can't make Boris ask for an extension Mobe, therefore Boris will do nothing and timeout :) That clock is ticking Mobe, another day down today, just six weeks to go now.Ready that Oirish passport of yours Mobers you're going to need it for checking at the NI border :D


Someone's simply NOT being paying attention to the implications of the 'Benn Bill'..   

It is noted you ducked the question as to you predicting anything right ;)

No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

Online Trenchcoat

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2176 on: September 18, 2019, 02:57:53 PM »

Someone's simply NOT being paying attention to the implications of the 'Benn Bill'..   

It is noted you ducked the question as to you predicting anything right ;)

You mean the 'surrender act' well hopefully Boris won't be for surrendering as he has so far stated and you'll be all out of luck Mobers with little else to do but to Remoan in dissatisfaction.

Thing is what a lot of Remoaners don't get is that if Leave had not won the referendum is that we would have a far worse homeless crisis than we presently have. Since the referendum immigration into this country has lessened a lot, it still needs further work to keep it under control but if Remain had won the immigration numbers would be far higher. There are already many tents that have gone up down the town high street where I grew up. If Remain had won I think we can guess that there would be double that, there would be many more for certain as the lack of housing problem we have would remain the same.

Just damn irresponsible behaviour of these Remainers to try and drive this country to a worse situation causing even greater homelessness problem.
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

Online msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2177 on: September 19, 2019, 12:07:11 AM »
Back to making stuff up about immigrants causing 'housing shortages' ?   Immigration from non_EU nations has continued upwards and overtook EU immigration ..

I 'missed' your 'complaints'

As ever, you post ignorant and prove the unreasonableness of your stance
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Online Trenchcoat

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2178 on: September 19, 2019, 01:33:49 AM »
Back to making stuff up about immigrants causing 'housing shortages' ?   Immigration from non_EU nations has continued upwards and overtook EU immigration ..

I 'missed' your 'complaints'

As ever, you post ignorant and prove the unreasonableness of your stance

International immigration has not gone up nearly as much as EU immigration has decreased in numbers coming. International immigration too needs to be cut but we're still in a better situation than what we would have been if Remain had won the referendum.
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2179 on: September 19, 2019, 02:00:40 AM »
Dear Trench,

Your claim ... please back it up with a source .... check back .. I have posted links to my claim
No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

Online Trenchcoat

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2180 on: September 19, 2019, 12:01:34 PM »
Dear Trench,

Your claim ... please back it up with a source .... check back .. I have posted links to my claim

Ok, here is the source for you Mobe:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-47400679

If we look at the graph in the news report we see that since the EU Referendum EU immigration number have fallen by 150,000 approximately while International immigration to the UK has risen by 50,000. That's a net loss of approximately 100,000 less people coming here. That's almost certainly due to the EU referendum including the drop in the exchange rate. The increase of approximately 50,000 in International immigration may or may not be put down the fall off in EU immigration, it can't necessarily be said either way. Theoretically the criteria until recent months under Boris Johnson have been kept the same so the same hurdle would have to be jumped over regardless. That or a lot more UK guys are going abroad for women ;D
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

Online msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2181 on: September 19, 2019, 02:50:29 PM »
Ok, here is the source for you Mobe:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-47400679

If we look at the graph in the news report we see that since the EU Referendum EU immigration number have fallen by 150,000 approximately while International immigration to the UK has risen by 50,000. That's a net loss of approximately 100,000 less people coming here. That's almost certainly due to the EU referendum including the drop in the exchange rate. The increase of approximately 50,000 in International immigration may or may not be put down the fall off in EU immigration, it can't necessarily be said either way. Theoretically the criteria until recent months under Boris Johnson have been kept the same so the same hurdle would have to be jumped over regardless. That or a lot more UK guys are going abroad for women ;D

Keep checking ..

Even the govt are saying they may have got the methodology of calculating wrong .. There is a school of thought that EU migration has INCREASED - as any 'deadline for Brexit looms ..

I never thought I'd find myself quoting 'migration watch ' ..

"Has there been a ‘Brexodus’?

Some businesses and industries have raised alarm about what they allege to be an ‘exodus’ of EU workers. Such claims have been exaggerated. Indeed, the number of EU-born people in the UK labour market has increased by more than 100,000 since the Referendum, from 2.3 million in Spring 2016 to 2.4 million in Spring 2019 (see the latest ONS statistics on employment by country of birth). Net migration from the EU is still running at about 60,000 per year."

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/european-union




 
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Online Trenchcoat

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2182 on: September 19, 2019, 04:25:24 PM »
Keep checking ..

Even the govt are saying they may have got the methodology of calculating wrong .. There is a school of thought that EU migration has INCREASED - as any 'deadline for Brexit looms ..

I never thought I'd find myself quoting 'migration watch ' ..

"Has there been a ‘Brexodus’?

Some businesses and industries have raised alarm about what they allege to be an ‘exodus’ of EU workers. Such claims have been exaggerated. Indeed, the number of EU-born people in the UK labour market has increased by more than 100,000 since the Referendum, from 2.3 million in Spring 2016 to 2.4 million in Spring 2019 (see the latest ONS statistics on employment by country of birth). Net migration from the EU is still running at about 60,000 per year."

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/european-union


Yes the numbers of people immigrating to the EU are still coming, just not as much as before. So we have yet to get into negative numbers of more people leaving than coming or very few people coming from the EU. Still it is an improvement from the situation before the referendum.

I picked a relatively neutral standpoint in explaining the immigration figures. On the less conservative side it could be said that if Remain win the referendum the International figures could be unchanged, but instead of EU immigration dropping off by 150,000 it could have increased the other way, it could have gone up further up to plus 150,000. So added to the extra international immigration up to an extra 200,000 people, perhaps approximately 300,000 people more as opposed to the result of Leave winning the referendum. A scary prospect indeed seeing that we have no place to put them. That and an outlook of the problem getting worse quickly with the prospect of no let up in people coming into the country.
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

Offline ML

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2183 on: September 19, 2019, 04:39:13 PM »
But now EU has given UK additional time . . . right ?
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2184 on: September 19, 2019, 04:56:14 PM »
But now EU has given UK additional time . . . right ?

They voted for it recently but it was a non binding vote since the UK PM has to ask first at least several days before we are currently due to leave on the 31st October. Boris had said he would rather be 'dead in a ditch' than ask the EU for another extension.
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Offline ML

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2186 on: September 19, 2019, 09:35:17 PM »
OK you UK and Euro types . . . what group is for or against the Ireland - N. Ireland 'back stop' . . . and why do such groups have these opinions?

I have read about it several times, and still understand nothing.

The below wiki snippet sounds contradictory to me.

"The backstop aims to prevent a hard border by keeping Northern Ireland in some aspects of the Single Market, until such time as an alternative arrangement including a technical or other solution can be delivered that will permit the border to be effectively invisible. The proposal also provides for the UK (as a whole) to have a common customs territory with the EU until the solution is delivered, to avoid the need for customs controls within the UK (between Northern Ireland and Great Britain). The "backstop" element is that the arrangement would continue to apply until a solution is found, even if there is no trade agreement between UK and EU by the end of the transition period."

Seems to me that the backstop gives UK the best of both worlds.
1) They get out from under EU rules regarding immigration, etc.
2) They are still able to get duty free goods from EU and send such to EU (all via N. Ireland).
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2187 on: September 19, 2019, 11:54:57 PM »

Seems to me that the backstop gives UK the best of both worlds.
1) They get out from under EU rules regarding immigration, etc.
2) They are still able to get duty free goods from EU and send such to EU (all via N. Ireland).

The main issue with the backstop is 'sovereignty'. The backstop basically says if there is any breakdown in agreement it kicks in. Yes it keeps goods from being duty free but there is no legal way out of it for the UK, it states that only the EU can relinquish the UK from being part of the backstop once we sign up to it as part of the EU Deal.

So in that regard it is seen as being worse than being in the EU as in the EU the UK can use article 50 to relinquish itself from being part of the EU after a two year period as we have done.

The EU say the backstop is needed and won't put a similar article 50 clause in it raising fears that they would hold the UK in it and so we would be little more than a colony.

I think it's the case that while in the backstop as we are getting tariff free trade we would also be a part of all other aspects of the EU that cone with the single market, is freedom of movement. It seems to be the EU refuse to allow us access to the single market in its entirety unless we also agree to freedom of movement and all other EU policies it sees going with that.
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Online msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2188 on: September 20, 2019, 01:14:32 AM »
OK you UK and Euro types . . . what group is for or against the Ireland - N. Ireland 'back stop' . . . and why do such groups have these opinions?

I have read about it several times, and still understand nothing.

The below wiki snippet sounds contradictory to me.

"The backstop aims to prevent a hard border by keeping Northern Ireland in some aspects of the Single Market, until such time as an alternative arrangement including a technical or other solution can be delivered that will permit the border to be effectively invisible. The proposal also provides for the UK (as a whole) to have a common customs territory with the EU until the solution is delivered, to avoid the need for customs controls within the UK (between Northern Ireland and Great Britain). The "backstop" element is that the arrangement would continue to apply until a solution is found, even if there is no trade agreement between UK and EU by the end of the transition period."

Seems to me that the backstop gives UK the best of both worlds.
1) They get out from under EU rules regarding immigration, etc.
2) They are still able to get duty free goods from EU and send such to EU (all via N. Ireland).

You are of course, right, ML

BUT..

Those people in N.Ireland feeling British think that this makes them 'at risk' - as they would be treated differently from the rest of the UK - so the DUP - which propped up Mrs May would never support it ..


With all the foolish 'sackings' by Boris the DUP cannot 'help' out-number the opposition, so MY guess is that if he is boxed in to do a deal he WILL offer a compromise which the EU will go for ..


N.Ireland will effectively be a 'free-trade' zone complying with EU rules and WILL be different from the UK ..


I cannot see how a French national can be stopped crossing into the UK ( N.Ireland ) and then be immigration 'checked' before crossing the Irish Sea to the 'mainland' ( GB) as they WILL cause riots in N.Ireland - ironically both 'tribes' - for different reasons would object ... as there is a near 100 year old Common Travel agreement .  There would be no way to control the Frenchman arriving in GB WITHOUT immigration controls between parts of the UK !


This is something 'brextremists' can NEVER 'get' ...


Boris IS stupid enough to go for this and worry about the consequences after ...


A lot rides on the outcome of the Supreme Court cases on the legality of suspending Parliament PLUS a further case re the 'Benn Bill' which forces Boris to ask for an extension - if no deal can be done ..


I do not think the UK will be leaving on 31st October without a deal , but Boris would rather shaft N.Ireland than risk thebrexitparty.com calling him weak and taking Tory party seats ..

The Tories have promised a 'Brexit' and being subject to EU 'freedom of movement' conditions AND trade laws / standards is hardly 'delivering'  the 'sovereignty / freedom' sought by those thinking Brussels is a 'weight around our necks '.  Which of course it isn't ..
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2189 on: September 20, 2019, 02:17:07 AM »
ML,

Those in Ireland and N. Ireland don't want to have a border between the two.  Those in N.Ireland don't want to have a border between them and the rest of UK either...  So, in essence, N. Ireland presents a catch 22 situation 'damned if you do, damned if you don't'.. that allows free passage of people and goods between UK and EU without controls.

The 'backstop' basically keeps things as they are now, without borders, along with forcing UK to stay within the customs union and maintain compliance with goods that go back and forth, with EU regulations applying to those goods until some agreement can be found that can provide an 'invisible' method of controlling what goes in and out.

Let's take a common example.. cigarettes.  If I fly from the US to EU, I can bring in 1 carton, but within the EU I can transport 8 cartons between the different countries.

If the UK is no longer in EU and they allow folks flying in from the US to N. Ireland to bring 8 cartons, that person could simply take them to Ireland without controls of either the cigs or the passenger.

Same problem if the passenger does not require a visa to visit UK, but requires a visa to enter EU..

... and of course all this vice versa, the other way 'round.

The backstop basically keeps things at the current 'status quo' (only 1 carton allowed and passport and EU visa status checked when entering the UK), until such time a new customs agreement can be achieved that invisibly keeps those extra cartons from entering EU.  It also puts the onus on the UK to work out a future agreement that the EU pretty much has veto power over and doesn't require a 'hard border' between Ireland and N. Ireland.  If you consider all the difficulties the UK has already with Brexit, it is likely the UK will never be able to put together such a customs deal, thus leaving EU in spirit but not practice.

Online msmob

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2190 on: September 20, 2019, 04:40:00 AM »
As ever, better put than I could
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2191 on: September 21, 2019, 04:04:57 AM »
Yes ..he really said that..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deadline-irish-backstop-no-deal-stephen-barclay-october-a9111756.html

The border Q can never be squared.

Anyone thinking Brexit would be smooth / easy or even possible should wake up !

Reality Check time.


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Offline ML

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2192 on: September 21, 2019, 09:55:45 AM »
Thanks to those who provided some explanations.  Of course I still don't understand everything, but I doubt anyone does as there are so many technical issues.

I had thought that the 'backstop' would only allow for free movement of goods between Ireland - N. Ireland - and rest of UK . . . while stopping unlimited immigration between the three.

But as I understand it now . . . the 'backstop' does not stop unlimited immigration.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2193 on: September 21, 2019, 11:43:40 AM »
Hi ML,

the 'unlimited ' immigration would not even stop in the event of a no deal exit .. those that thought of 'controlling our borders' keep forgetting N.Ireland will be the back door to uncontrollable EU movement
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2194 on: September 21, 2019, 12:11:17 PM »
UK could allow free movement of goods across Ireland - N. Ireland border . . . while not allowing free movement of persons across that same border.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2195 on: September 21, 2019, 01:17:26 PM »
OMG ML,

You just joined the Trench / Jone  school of Brexit 'expertise' .. !

Firstly, as an 'loyalist' Ulsterman - I'd have to say get out of here ! ( 'loyalist' as in wishing N.I to remain part of the UK.)

Secondly,  totally unworkable and there's the little matter of

a) Common travel Agreement - nearly 100 years old  - freedom of movement for UK / IRL citizens within the islands

b) Good Friday Agreement



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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2196 on: September 21, 2019, 06:17:36 PM »

Firstly, as an 'loyalist' Ulsterman - I'd have to say get out of here ! ( 'loyalist' as in wishing N.I to remain part of the UK.)


Loyalist Ulsterman...in other words nutter! Lol, and one of those people who thinks the UK wants nutters to be within its realm :ROFL:

ML, Mobe also forgot to mention that the EU doesn't want to accept a free trade without free movement of people situation. It's why they came up with the 'backstop' as they knew it would scupper the EU Deal Teresa May had negotiated as they didn't want to deliver on it. A good part of doing that was that they feared other EU member countries would want to leave and get a free trade without free movement of people deal.

None of this will matter though, Boris has no choice other than to go for no deal if he even wanted to do anything else which I don't think he does.

Resolving the Brexit dispute within his party is more crucial than any of the above if him and his party are to survive going forward. The NI border will end up a hard border, Boris no longer needs worry about the DUP his majority in Parliament is long gone but the house still wishes him to be there, lol.

Essentially a hard border is the only way until the EU come around. A hard border is the least painful option and will be one the people of NI will get used to including our Mobers ;)
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2197 on: September 21, 2019, 07:19:24 PM »
Who would have thought West and East Germany would reunite.

Who would have thought North and South Vietnam would reunite.

Who would have thought Ireland and N. Ireland would reunite.
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2198 on: September 21, 2019, 11:45:35 PM »
Loyalist Ulsterman...in other words nutter! Lol,

No surrender..!))

and one of those people who thinks the UK wants nutters to be within its realm :ROFL:

Fact of the matter is the Scots and the English planted us here to de-Oirishify Ireland and this is the hangover..People in the top right hand corner who wave the Union Flag more proudly than the English))

It is a bit similar to Crimea.. just that that Russification and the ethnic cleansing happened a lot more recently.


ML, Mobe also forgot to mention that the EU doesn't want to accept a free trade without free movement of people situation.

Have you been on the pop?....But thanks for making it clear in 'Trenchlish' )


It's why they came up with the 'backstop' as they knew it would scupper the EU Deal Teresa May had negotiated as they didn't want to deliver on it. A good part of doing that was that they feared other EU member countries would want to leave and get a free trade without free movement of people deal.

Seriously, now, Trench..'They', the EU, came up with it to protect an EU member state and EU rules... I told anyone who would listen (or not) why N.Ireland was the reason why 'Brexit' was unworkable..

You are in the "I do not WANT to listen category"!


None of this will matter though, Boris has no choice other than to go for no deal if he even wanted to do anything else which I don't think he does.

The reality is that Boris is weaker than Mrs May and cannot crash us out....


Resolving the Brexit dispute within his party is more crucial than any of the above if him and his party are to survive going forward.

)) Has Boris won any By-election? Has Boris won a vote in Parliament?

Let's see how the Baroness and her team rule on whether they can say how Boris 'advised' the Queen was proper and legal...

I hope they do, but it may be a dream...I so want to see him dangle helplessly so more)



The NI border will end up a hard border, Boris no longer needs worry about the DUP his majority in Parliament is long gone but the house still wishes him to be there, lol.

Whilst it IS true that Boris no longer needs the DUP, if you want to see him control Parliament, he knows his has to win 20 plus more seats as they will punish him severely if he tries to make N.Ireland further from the UK norm re trade and implementing immigration controls or a hard border.

Boris will oversee the resumption of a civil war.



Essentially a hard border is the only way until the EU come around. A hard border is the least painful option and will be one the people of NI will get used to including our Mobers ;)

Siad THE most clueless poster on Brexit or dating...
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?
« Reply #2199 on: September 21, 2019, 11:51:18 PM »
Who would have thought West and East Germany would reunite.

Who would have thought North and South Vietnam would reunite.

Who would have thought Ireland and N. Ireland would reunite.

ML..The Germanies were separated for 44 years by the outcome of WWII and the reunification was a desire by the cast majority.


Vietnam was reunited by war and Communism


N.Ireland and Eire would unite if the majority of the people of N.Ireland  wish it... 

I so no evidence of this, currently...
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Re: FOR HISTORY BUFFS by Grumpy
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent? by msmob
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent? by msmob
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent? by Trenchcoat
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Re: Brexit good, bad or indifferent? by Trenchcoat
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