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Author Topic: Brexit good, bad or indifferent?  (Read 143505 times)

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Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #2575 on: December 09, 2019, 12:08:00 PM »
If you mean:

1/ Worse off

2/ Businesses quitting the UK

3/ Labour shortages in healthcare


Then what's SO 'great' about that ?

Need some examples ?

1/ Nov 2018 - told the DUP conference that any PM trying to do a deal like Mrs May was 'insane' - then introduced a 'bill' - that would never get through the house in it's original form -  that is FAR worse for N.I

2/ Proroguing Parliament was not illegal .. Ooops - YES .. it was ...

3/ The NHS is and has been on the table in any post 'brexit' trade talks with the US ... hence 'Trampu' was told to STFU


Facts aren't a 'big deal' to YOU, may be ..


'We' are already FAR worse off ( according to Tory Chancellors' predictions v reality )

How long will it take to get back what we've lost, let alone will lose ?    You are too thick to GET that this is not really about you or me .. it's about VERY rich people avoiding upcoming tax laws - that will make it MUCH harder to hide




There has been no 'impasse' ... Boris and Mrs May just kept losing

My word Mobe you do like to argue, but that should hopefully all be coming to an end soon in Parliament at least.

It does actually effect me, and everyone else in the UK, with the EU's freedom of movement anyone could come here from Eastern European member states and that has been causing great difficulty in housing, jobs and in accessing public services due to the heavy demand which was not met as a result of money being sent home by East Europeans rather than spent here.

So what are your predictions for Election night Mobers? The Tories only need 9 more seats than the previous 317 seats to win a majority, you really think they won't get that?
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« Reply #2576 on: December 09, 2019, 03:21:25 PM »
THIS thread is about the UK's stupidity ...  stop deflecting

I really DO hope you'll need  a visa before you go to Ukraine and I'll be going to RU on a E-Visa ..;)   


You'll 'get' the folly of your vote ..


Thursday is my wedding day - as well as the UK vote ... ;)

Ah it will be bliss for you Mobers I'm so happy for you. Just think of it waking up in bed together the morning after your wedding switching the TV on to the news of a big Tory majority win! I couldn't be happier for you :D

Well for me in the worst case scenario, which I very much doubt will happen, there is always Belarus :)
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« Reply #2577 on: December 09, 2019, 07:30:57 PM »
Ah it will be bliss for you Mobers I'm so happy for you.


Are you planning to serve Moby two humble pies? He likes a good buffet. I was just thinking. I like to drink tea and it would be great if the UK would join Mexico, Canada and USA in our trade agreement. I'd welcome the UK even with Moby tagging along. He will get a taste on what's it's like to be on a winning team and I'd even buy him some Trump themed clothing.

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« Reply #2578 on: December 09, 2019, 07:39:23 PM »
Ah it will be bliss for you Mobers I'm so happy for you. Just think of it waking up in bed together the morning after your wedding switching the TV on to the news of a big Tory majority win! I couldn't be happier for you :D

Well for me in the worst case scenario, which I very much doubt will happen, there is always Belarus :)

The TV ?   I don't think, we'll be watching any TV,..

Trench, I haven't seen SC for a couple of months ...

No to Brexit, Yes to a People's Vote on Brexit, THEN a General Election

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« Reply #2579 on: December 10, 2019, 05:17:56 AM »
The TV ?   I don't think, we'll be watching any TV,..

Trench, I haven't seen SC for a couple of months ...

No TV! Wow they must be pretty impoverished out there in Georgia then, more desperately poor than Ukraine perhaps ;D

Two months? You think she may have changed her mind? At least you'll still have Maxx to call on for comfort if so.

That and just two days to go till Election night Mobers! That will take your mind of matters!!
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« Reply #2580 on: December 10, 2019, 07:12:44 AM »
No TV! Wow they must be pretty impoverished out there in Georgia then, more desperately poor than Ukraine perhaps ;D

Two months? You think she may have changed her mind? At least you'll still have Maxx to call on for comfort if so.

That and just two days to go till Election night Mobers! That will take your mind of matters!!

I knew you would(N'T) understand ..;)

Wherever I go I can get UK TV ...   I chose the 12 Dec for a reason ;)
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« Reply #2581 on: December 10, 2019, 04:13:51 PM »
I knew you would(N'T) understand ..;)

Wherever I go I can get UK TV ...   I chose the 12 Dec for a reason ;)

I thought your SC would have choose it so she didn't have to hear you spouting on about the General Election/Brexit.

Only one day to go now till Election day Mobers, that humble pie is piping hot for you! :D
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« Reply #2582 on: December 10, 2019, 09:05:15 PM »
the Conservative Party’s Boris Johnson, are intent on continuing a push to privatize NHS services, placing the cherished health agency up for sale to predatory interests based in the United States known for shifting costs to consumers and for reaping profits through providing lower standards of care often at higher costs. Late last month, Corbyn released a set of over 400 trade documents between the U.S. and the U.K., purporting to show the U.S. seeking “total market access” to the U.K. health care market.

The back and forth, as it played out in the British press, was focused on the documents Corbyn released and has largely left out the track record that American health care companies have in seeking to capitalize on recent NHS privatization schemes. Publicly available corporate presentations and transcripts of investor calls with health care executives suggest that the American health care industry has long had its sights on harnessing a wave of privatization and outsourcing at the NHS — both measures sought by senior Conservative Party officials.

Investigations from The Guardian show that private firms have received about £15 billion in contracts for the NHS over the last five years, a rate of privatization that increased markedly following the end of Labour control of government. In 2012, the coalition Lib Dem-Tory government passed the Health and Social Care Act, which lifted the cap on the amount of money hospitals could spend on private sector care, from 2 percent to 49 percent.

The wave of privatization has left scandals in its wake.

Despite claims by Tory leaders that NHS privatization is not on the table, the current circle of Johnson allies remains close to the privatization debate. Dominic Cummings, a political adviser who serves as the most senior aid to Johnson, previously worked for Babylon Health, a potential conflict of interest highlighted by the media in October. The Mirror has reported on several Tory MPs who have either received campaign contributions from private health care interests, or have served as consultants to firms that would benefit from further outsourcing.

The playbook for NHS privatization was articulated in a manifesto released in 2011 by Tory backbench MPs Liz Truss, Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Kwasi Kwarteng, and Chris Skidmore. The lawmakers, at the time relatively obscure members of the party, argued in the document, titled “After the Coalition,” that a newly empowered Conservative Party should one day move to make “two thirds” of hospitals “privately or not-for-profit,” arguing such reforms could capture the “extra efficiencies private companies can provide.” Raab and Patel, notably, further articulated a plan to place more health care costs on the individual.

As journalist Solomon Hughes has reported, the same group of backbench MPs behind the manifesto are now are all ministers in Johnson’s reshuffled cabinet, placing the once radical group firmly within reach of implementing their goals.

http://theintercept.com/2019/12/10/nhs-privatization-uk-health-care/
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« Reply #2583 on: December 11, 2019, 03:48:50 AM »
I wouldn't put it past the Tories for some privatisation measures to come in Grumpy but as said in your article this was the case long before Brexit was on the cards in the Tory Party. The thing is that the Tories can privatise it whether or not we are part of the EU. Being part of the EU doesn't stop US companies coming in on this it's basically down to the government if they wish to privatise part of it to them.

Odds are we're going to get Tory government's in the future so some involvement on this front looks likely anyway.

The NHS is a great institution in the UK but one of its pitfalls has been cost. I don't doubt that US healthcare companies probably mean a trade off of cost & quality. Yet the vast and growing expense of the NHS is a major imposition on the government budget. I personally would rather stick with it and pay what I need to pay through National Insurance contributions. For me the NHS and State Pension through National Insurance contributions are the two great institutions I would like to see kept. I would much rather see social housing reformed and massive expense saved there but Jeremy Corbyn wishes to take us back to the 1970s and build more of it as it was then.

For me though I'm not sure that the NHS has ever quite gotten the setup exactly right. I believe it should be fundamentally state owned. I myself haven't used it substantially so far in my lifetime, some other members of my family moreso and I'm grateful it was there for them. One of the problems though is that some people abuse their bodies then turn up their and end up costing the NHS, government & taxpayer a lot of money. Some people smoke daily and then wonder why they are getting cancer in their thirties & forties. That can cost a lot of money to treat and I do wonder if it's right that those idiots should dump all of their costs for their treatment at the door of other people who have chosen the healthier lifestyle. Obesity is another bad lifestyle choice. To me that was never the reason the NHS was formed, for me it was about problem moments that come up in someone's like with their health not picking up after people with bad lifestyle choices who couldn't care less as someone else picks up the bill for their not caring.

Privatisation in this country has had a mixed record. It seems to have worked well enough for telecoms industry. For the energy industry it's unclear and for railways it's uncertain. In dental work problems can arise with private patients being screwed by profit driven dentists. Some of the above privatisations such as the railways it may be the case that the government is spending more as a result of contracting out the service than it would have done if it was kept state owned.

The main thing is to just see what happens. For me it's better to get Brexit done and for that it's best if Boris gets a majority. In five years time it could well be the case that a Labour government is needed to be brought in if things are going badly in the NHS and any private involvement the Tories have brought in.

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« Reply #2584 on: December 11, 2019, 09:19:41 AM »
Any predictions as to how many seats the Tories wind up with?   
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« Reply #2585 on: December 11, 2019, 11:07:09 AM »
Any predictions as to how many seats the Tories wind up with?

Well according to the latest You Gov predictions, "A new YouGov poll of 105,612 people for Sky News, taken over the last seven days and mapped across every seat in Britain, puts the Conservatives on course to win 339 seats, up 21 seats compared to the last general election in 2017.

Labour is down 31 to 231 seats, SNP up six to 41 seats, Liberal Democrats up three to 15 seats and Plaid Cymru and Greens unchanged on four seats and one seat, respectively."

I think that could be not too far off how it might turn out.

I think that the Tories may lose out in a few areas from the vote being split with the Brexit Party, but hopefully not too many areas. I think in general in most areas their voters have gone back to them and it's again nationally become a head to head with Labour.

Labour I think are suffering from less support compared to 2017 and that could restrict them winning as many seats. They don't seem to have caught fire with the student vote this time is the impression I have got plus the Tories have made no real clangers to put off their traditional voter base (old people) that they did last time.

The Lib Dems have crashed in the poll ratings but may take the odd few seats extra where there is a vote split, but not many I think.

I think it could well end up tighter than this latest YouGov prediction, they might get lucky and run away with it but chances are they may just edge a few seats over the 326 needed for a majority.

I don't get the impression UKIP are running much of a race or are even present in many constitutencies so that could help the Tories while the Brexit Party may just pick up votes similar to UKIP in many constitutencies rather than gain vote splitting or constituency contesting numbers.
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« Reply #2586 on: December 11, 2019, 09:26:13 PM »
http://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/general-election-conservatives-set-for-majority-but-race-has-tightened-significantly-poll-11883389

As this article explains it looks like the 7 ish percent points Labour are adrift from the Tories compared with their 2017 performance has gone to the Lib Dems. Overall that will be a problem for the opposition parties and a gift for Boris. It means Boris will likely stand a much better chance of securing an overall majority even if he gets roughly the same overall share of the popular vote as Theresa May. Basically since Labour will get a lot less seats, looks like maybe 30 odd less are predicted but the Lib Dems will only likely pick up a few seats instead because of the first past the post system and distribution of the votes.

I think our Oirish Blagger may have come to see this and would prefer to schedule a wedding instead of seeing it all unfold ;D
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« Reply #2587 on: December 12, 2019, 12:28:14 PM »
Well it's finally Election Day and just 2-3 hours left of voting. Should be getting results in from around midnight UK time. I'm hoping that a lot of scalps will be taken from Arch Remainers, that would be fun to watch :D

No doubt Mobers has been constantly checking for updates during his wedding ceremony ;)

Stay with me here for Election coverage tonight :D I'll post up any good stuff! If no good stuff then I won't post up at all.
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« Reply #2588 on: December 12, 2019, 03:07:45 PM »
Well Exit Polls are predicting a Tory majority win with Labour well down. If that occurs Moby will be scoffing his way through a lot of humble pie tomorrow :D

They can be wrong but they predicted 368 seats for the Tories which would be huge. I would still be surprised if it was that much but we shall see.

Apparently, Labour have done very badly in the exit poll, so it's looking like they are likely to lose seats.

In the markets the pound reacted strongly both up against the Euro and the Dollar on the exit poll news, now what was Mobers saying about it not going up because of the referendum result???

Exit Poll:
http://news.sky.com/politics
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 03:25:02 PM by Trenchcoat »
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« Reply #2589 on: December 12, 2019, 03:41:31 PM »
Please,

Correct me if I'm wrong:

Because various different parties all have their followers, it is unlikely that any party actually receives majorities in many of the Parliamentary Seats.  As an incorrect example, Conservatives get 42, Labor gets 38, LibDems, get 15, and scattered parties get the remainder.   So the election of many of the Seats are elected by a plurality.   

But if there were a referendum for Brexit, there would not be a plurality.   It would be an up or down vote yielding a majority.  (I'm not advocating for a referendum, just trying to clarify for my own muddled mind.)  Accordingly, even if the Tories wind up with a substantial majority in Parliament, it doesn't mean that the majority of people in the UK actually support Brexit? 

Where am I wrong?
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« Reply #2590 on: December 12, 2019, 04:00:52 PM »
It  would appear Moobs is going down in flames, yes?

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« Reply #2591 on: December 12, 2019, 04:06:43 PM »
Please,

Correct me if I'm wrong:

Because various different parties all have their followers, it is unlikely that any party actually receives majorities in many of the Parliamentary Seats.  As an incorrect example, Conservatives get 42, Labor gets 38, LibDems, get 15, and scattered parties get the remainder.   So the election of many of the Seats are elected by a plurality.   

But if there were a referendum for Brexit, there would not be a plurality.   It would be an up or down vote yielding a majority.  (I'm not advocating for a referendum, just trying to clarify for my own muddled mind.)  Accordingly, even if the Tories wind up with a substantial majority in Parliament, it doesn't mean that the majority of people in the UK actually support Brexit? 

Where am I wrong?

Please,

Correct me if I'm wrong:

Because various different parties all have their followers, it is unlikely that any party actually receives majorities in many of the Parliamentary Seats.  As an incorrect example, Conservatives get 42, Labor gets 38, LibDems, get 15, and scattered parties get the remainder.   So the election of many of the Seats are elected by a plurality.   

But if there were a referendum for Brexit, there would not be a plurality.   It would be an up or down vote yielding a majority.  (I'm not advocating for a referendum, just trying to clarify for my own muddled mind.)  Accordingly, even if the Tories wind up with a substantial majority in Parliament, it doesn't mean that the majority of people in the UK actually support Brexit? 

Where am I wrong?

Correct, even if the Tories got over 50 percent of the overall popular vote in the General Election it couldn't necessarily be said that the population supported Brexit as the party ran on other issues. Of the Brexit Party win over 50 percent of the popular vote then it as good as would as they are a single issue party based just on Brexit.

That said it is in the Tory manifesto that they would action Boris's EU Deal and it's the main part of the manifesto and issue of the day. It's also probably the Single most important factor in this election and what many voters seem to be voting on. Many in Leave areas are upset with the opposition hindering Brexit for their own beliefs.

Overall though it's a different game that is played in a General Election, it's not a straight out popular vote but a first past the post vote. All parties are on the same score that they have to ensure their candidate has to get first past the post in each constitutency, so it's up to them to compete to try to make that happen.
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« Reply #2592 on: December 12, 2019, 04:07:31 PM »
It  would appear Moobs is going down in flames, yes?

YES :D
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« Reply #2593 on: December 12, 2019, 04:25:59 PM »
The best news so far:

"BBC exit poll forecast says Jo Swinson is extremely likely to lose her seat to the SNP."

 :D
Let's hope that happens! Will be hilarious to see the Lib Dum leader lose her seat!!!
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« Reply #2594 on: December 12, 2019, 04:32:37 PM »
£1 GBP up to $1.35 USD

£1 GBP up to 1.20Euro

At the moment, considering it was £1 GBP to 1.10 Euro a few weeks/months back that's quite a rise already, probably more to come.

Should make for some good deals abroad for us Brits :D
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« Reply #2595 on: December 12, 2019, 04:41:10 PM »
Ok some results already coming in, One Tory gain of Labour and two Labour holds. Could show the way it's going to flow with a lot of Tory gains. Kind of surprised they can get the results in & counted so quick.
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« Reply #2596 on: December 12, 2019, 04:42:15 PM »
What's happening ?

Moby has been telling us the majority in the UK wants to remain,and yet it seems the remain parties votes are collapsing.

Will the stupid ,chaser of pensioners for money, Oirish blagger ever appear on here again ?

LOL
Just saying it like it is.

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« Reply #2597 on: December 12, 2019, 05:13:16 PM »
Wow.  Long held seats going to the Conservatives.   What does this tell us for the US?   Brexit preceded Trump...  now long held Labour seats going to the Tories - wanting to try something new.

If one were to extrapolate, one could surmise that there is a large segment of traditionally Democratic voters who are willing to try something new ..... i.e. Blacks and other minority segments voting more conservatively to try something new because of the extreme progressive bent of many of the inner city/state governments.
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« Reply #2598 on: December 12, 2019, 05:24:28 PM »
What are the ballots like?  Voting machines?  Paper ballots?   Punch card ballots?
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

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« Reply #2599 on: December 12, 2019, 05:34:35 PM »
Looks like Corbyn is toast.  Worst Labour results since the 1930's.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 05:37:48 PM by jone »
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Re: Light at the end of the tunnel for saving Western Society by Trenchcoat
Today at 12:19:16 AM

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