The Struggle For Ukraine

[BC]

http://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/austin-more-us-rocket-systems-ukraine-00046856

It seems more advanced items may be underway as well.  Scroll down the article to read about it.

[tfcrew]

 

It is easy for someone who doesn't have to... to say just pick up and move out.

That’s exactly what your op-ed is suggesting.

I fail to see the words evacuate..move..leave...get out...or vacate in that article. Perhaps something specific can be highlighted?

[tfcrew]

http://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/austin-more-us-rocket-systems-ukraine-00046856

It seems more advanced items may be underway as well.  Scroll down the article to read about it.

The usually unreliable politico links are not working it seems.

[BC]

The usually unreliable politico links are not working it seems.

Works fine here, and also in the US via my vpn connection.

Guess you're using a Trump approved browser.
 

[Boethius]

The Russian economy is imploding.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

[BC]

Interesting article Boethius.  It helped me understand a bit more and put things into better perspective.  Thanks.

In the longer term, EU will not forget this wake-up call. Although the expense is high, it is temporary and we'll end up better off in the end, less reliant on RU.

All in all, a small price to pay to support UA and keep RU at bay.

[ML]

The Russian economy is imploding.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business/

Great news !!

Let's hope they are at least 'mostly' correct.

Thanks much for sharing Boe.

[BC]

Regarding the discussion up-thread as to whether or not negotiations with RU would be effective.

http://www.npr.org/2022/07/23/1113165082/russia-strikes-ukraine-black-sea-odesa-grain-deal

[Boethius]

  I fail to see the words evacuate..move..leave...get out...or vacate in that article. Perhaps something specific can be highlighted?

It's implicit.  Give up Donbas.  If you're a Ukrainian (which the majority of the residents of Donbas are), then just leave, because you won't be able to live as a Ukrainian there.

[RussianWomenOnly]

If Russian military takes over Odessa, what are the chances they will invade other countries like Moldova?

[Boethius]

They can hardly hold what they have taken so far. Odesa has thousands of km of underground tunnels that have been prepared for an invasion. Russia would be fighting there for years.

[Patagonie]

If Russian military takes over Odessa, what are the chances they will invade other countries like Moldova?

I have already answered your question. 
If they take Odessa they will reunify the region (oblast) with the Eastern part of Moldovia, Transnistria. 100%
But they cannot take Odessa, they don't have the troops, nor the military stuff. Odessa is a big city with 2000 km of tunnels below. 
In the worst case, they will need months before approaching Odessa. 
If Russians cross the border or the western part of Moldova they will face fiercer opposition from the EC and the USA. 

[Trenchcoat]

Indeed, I agree with the above, at the moment Russia does not have Nikolaev within reach anymore so no real threat to Odessa. In fact Ukrainian forces are pushing towards Kherson using HIMARS to good effect. All across Ukraine, Russia is now running out of steam and with many Ammunition depots blow up by HIMARS they are now lacking the fire power to press forward with their invasion.

The only troops Russia has got to attack Moldova with is apparently in the break away region next to Moldova. This is a useful article I found online:

http://balkaninsight.com/2022/07/13/moldova-weighs-mobility-and-firepower-in-military-overhaul/

So they have about 10,000 Russian troops in the break away region, about 3 battalions l, tanks if I recall correctly. I don't know how much ammo they have there or how long they could keep up an offensive if they moved into Moldova. I always found it strange that they never used those troops to attack Odesa early on in the invasion or at least move in to close of the border areas. Moldovan army should be on alert now in case Russia made a sudden move using the forces in the break away region. Likely they would have used presence there to make an excuse for invading Moldova line they did Ukraine. I wouldn't totally put it past Putler not to use them to invade Moldova unless they are really low on Ammo there. At this stage Putler has little to lose with the war going badly in Ukraine that he might chance it and see if he can get by a quick swift invasion as he had hoped for in Ukraine. In my opinion he has little to lose as the break away region of Moldova is slim so not much to risk. It may well be that even with a heads up from the Ukrainian invasion Moldova's army may not prove to be very able.

As stated in the article they are looking to modernise their army over the coming decade. Apparently the EU is going to give them €40 to help with this despite them not being an EU member lol. Shows how the EU like to throw their wealthier members money around even on non-EU members despite the EU and many of its members starting to get into dire economic conditions.

So it remains up in the air, will Putler use the forces in the breakaway region to attack Odessa, Moldova or just keep them put? As has been said they can't get supplies in so once they've shot their bolt that's it if they do so. My opinion like above is that they are unlikely to take Odessa with those forces and will likely get bogged down there. So if they were to use them they might strike against Moldova and hope on a quick victory. As they've not used them to date though I would question if they have much ability to fight so there's good odds that they will just stay put also I reckon so I wouldn't fret just yet RWO.

[Chelseaboy]

Regarding the discussion up-thread as to whether or not negotiations with RU would be effective.

http://www.npr.org/2022/07/23/1113165082/russia-strikes-ukraine-black-sea-odesa-grain-deal

No surprise there..i'd have been shocked if Putler and his orcs had honoured the grain deal.


For all the appeasement/Chamberlain brigade...there can be no negotiations with a country/regime that broke the Budapest Memorandum.


Russia cannot be trusted in the slightest....capiche ?


The only way to stop Putler and his orcs is the complete destruction of their armed forces...which may possibly need the onset of World War 3 to achieve.


There is no middle ground here...Russia needs to be totally de-militarized and economically destroyed.

[Trenchcoat]

Reading an article today which was exploring the state of the Russian economy. It reckoned the Russian economy is in a bad way, far worse than the Kremlin is making out. Sanctions are having an impact, oil, gas, etc and even Chinese trade with Russia has apparently fallen away as Chinese companies prefer to do trade with the US, a far bigger market and so shun Russia in fear of failing foul of US sanctions and being cut out of the more lucrative US market. Meanwhile the Ruble is not strong and only being propped up by the Kremlin's internal measured.

So overall the west is suffering but far less than Russia economically. So for us just a question of staying the course. That will be worthwhile in the long run as the longer Russia stays in the war the more knackered they will be economically and militarily. The greater odds also of the Russian Republics revolting and breaking away from the Russian Federation. Putler will end up with egg on his face in such a scenario as Russia will be a lot smaller and weaker than before the Ukrainian Invasion. They reckon it may take many years if ever for Russia to get back to where it was economically. If the west becomes less reliant on oil & gas in the coming years then that will hit Russia greatly too.

Really all a question of time, of how long Russia is prepared too and can hang in there. The longer they keep going the more their military runs down and so the less powerful they are. That's good news for the west & Ukraine as without any teeth Russia will be humbled on the world stage and so far it's been losing a lot of gear out there.

[Patagonie]

No surprise there..i'd have been shocked if Putler and his orcs had honoured the grain deal.


For all the appeasement/Chamberlain brigade...there can be no negotiations with a country/regime that broke the Budapest Memorandum.


Russia cannot be trusted in the slightest....capiche ?


The only way to stop Putler and his orcs is the complete destruction of their armed forces...which may possibly need the onset of World War 3 to achieve.


There is no middle ground here...Russia needs to be totally de-militarized and economically destroyed.

He didn't like the meeting with the Turkish President. 
And moreover, this agreement is totally stupid when you are in the Russian shoes, why they would respect it?

[Boethius]

Russia should not have signed an agreement they had no intention of honouring. It proves they cannot be trusted. They’re a rogue state.

[Trenchcoat]

Never ceases to amaze me how just a few decades ago the Soviet/Russian Army that Ukraine is now facing was a powerful and potent force. A massive army full of huge numbers of tanks, artillery, aircraft, etc enough for western nations to be both in awe of and fearful of now all but a largely outdated mostly rusted wreaks only a fraction of its former powerful might. The finishing off, of the better part of Russia army in Ukraine signals the fag end of that Soviet might that once was but is no longer. In comparison, China's army now looks like it potentially poses a much bigger threat, not old rusty armaments from years gone by but a modern efficient army with up to date equipment and large in size. Russia's army looks poor and pales in comparison, to me it's looking like Russia's time as a powerful nation is fast coming to an end, brought about by Putler's ambition to grasp for more.

[BC]

Well, with expenditures less than 1/10th that of the US, less than 1/3 that of the EU, and a good bit squandered due to corruption, it's not that awful surprising even with low wages and unlimited energy at its disposal.

[2tallbill]

Never ceases to amaze me how just a few decades ago the Soviet/Russian Army that Ukraine is now facing was a powerful and potent force. A massive army full of huge numbers of tanks, artillery, aircraft, etc enough for western nations to be both in awe of and fearful of now all but a largely outdated mostly rusted wreaks only a fraction of its former powerful might. The finishing off, of the better part of Russia army in Ukraine signals the fag end of that Soviet might that once was but is no longer. In comparison, China's army now looks like it potentially poses a much bigger threat, not old rusty armaments from years gone by but a modern efficient army with up to date equipment and large in size. Russia's army looks poor and pales in comparison, to me it's looking like Russia's time as a powerful nation is fast coming to an end, brought about by Putler's ambition to grasp for more.

Politicians sometimes exaggerate how scary an opponent is to get more money/
funding. Now China is the boogeyman. Lastly, we had to assume that the Soviets
kept their gear on decent condition and Generals had to prepare as if they were
top notch.

You can believe that they had plenty of corruption during Soviet times. Every
Generals mistress had a fur coat purchased with money looted from the
Soviet military. Every Generals dacha had a refrigerator with an icemaker.

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently not, this article caught my eye today, looks like their artillery is now getting worn out lol:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/07/25/russias-artillery-is-wearing-out-and-blowing-up/?sh=4daa015f734c

Looks like soon all they will have left in the bag is either their big weapons of mass destruction missiles if they don't blow up in their face or bring up much of the menfolk and attack Ukraine en-masse with a massive infantry push winning by sheer weight of numbers in one go.

In WWII the Soviet Union had around 6 and a half million men, Nazi Germany around 2 and a half million men. So today's effort by Russia is puny. They have struggled with logistics with even a much smaller army. They may have more money to spend on the war than Ukraine but the west is helping Ukraine out so that evens the balance, if anything can tip it in Ukraine's favour. Its starting to look like Russia's days as it was may be numbered.

[Boethius]

A paper on the failing Russian economy.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

[krimster2]

Super good find Bo-dacious!!

go the source link, it includes the following graphic:

look how the USA overtook Russia, as biggest gas supplier to Europe
JUST A MONTH AGO!!!
and look at the slope of those two curves,
and now think 5 yr out

which hurts more?
this?
or Amerikanski Racketa?

[ML]

A paper on the failing Russian economy.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

That site wants me to enable its cookies, which I won't do.

Any chance you can post it otherwise ?

[BC]

That site wants me to enable its cookies, which I won't do.

Any chance you can post it otherwise ?

ML,

Try http://download1324.mediafire.com/56w4bx08bapg/koo1odcb6ke66z1/SSRN-id4167193.pdf