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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 19656 times)

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Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1050 on: July 11, 2020, 01:48:55 PM »
It is no longer about Texas and Florida.  Both are foregone conclusions.  It is about where we invite the virus next to feast and wreak its havoc.

Sounds like you extended an invite to our invisible guest that thrives on attitudes such as yours.

Online BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1051 on: July 11, 2020, 04:38:21 PM »
Sounds like you extended an invite to our invisible guest that thrives on attitudes such as yours.


Maybe the virus prefers your attitude and it wants people to stop work, stop education, hide forever which would ruin economies, diminish quality of life and increase chances of war. Are you sure you're about saving American lives and not promoting America to shut down which would ruin the quality of life for the majority? I showed you the chart of what America expects to lose each week. As long as we don't go beyond the threshold, we'll be okay. For the areas experiencing outbreaks, only those areas need to shut down. When it comes to deaths per capita, there are 42 States that did better than the European nations of Belgium, Italy, UK, Spain, Andorra, San Marino and Sweden. The 8 States that didn't do a good job were run by Democrats.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1052 on: July 12, 2020, 12:04:51 AM »
Billy,

I see you have determined that the virus has a brain, and beyond that can read the mind of its host, determine political leanings.

The virus thrives better in places with high population density and folks come into contact with each other more often.

With the exception of Phoenix, Dallas/Ft Worth and the Twin Cities area the majority of folks that reside in their respective metro areas lean democrat.  Count independents and one can say with authority that republicans are a minority in metro areas and cities.

Are these few metro areas that lean republican, or even close really doing better than others today?  How about the other way around... are most metro areas that have more democrats doing worse or better than republican?  Considering the new epicentres hosting the virus, how are they doing in comparison today? How do they lean politically?

Your hypotheses don't work out well in the reality of the today and now do they?  Well, I got news for you, the virus is here to stay, not because who or where we are, but because of our misguided actions and inaction.

Keep your eye on the charts as this, unfortunately, is only the beginning.  We as a nation were effective at slowing down the virus for the same amount of time most countries in Europe were 90 days.  What we did not do as a nation is beat the virus while we had the advantage of momentum.  It's back running wild now not because it is stronger or smarter than us, but because of our own complacency and irresponsibility.  We did not help our neighbour and instead said 'screw them'... It's not me so all is ok.

You and others that think like you are a large part of the problem BillyB.  In fact, the whole problem.  We have the capacity to stop the virus in its tracks right now, this very moment if we had the will to do so.  If others can do it we can too.

Instead of taking it on the chin, to get up in 45 days and learn to go about our business with prudence for another 45, we somehow insist on a slow and very prolonged death by a thousand cuts.  The only factor we cannot change is time, and we've squandered it, farting around dreaming of some easier, softer way that will somehow save the day whilst defending an infallible image that only appears in the mirror.

We had the time and resources to handle the virus much better than ANY other country on the planet but did not.  The crooked finger of blame can only be pointed at our own faults.  We continue to let an invisible, brainless glob of molecules bleed us to death.



« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 12:25:38 AM by BC »

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1053 on: July 12, 2020, 12:33:53 AM »


We had the time and resources to handle the virus much better than ANY other country on the planet but did not.  The crooked finger of blame can only be pointed at our own faults.  We continue to let an invisible, brainless glob of molecules bleed us to death.


Whilst I believe the Canadians, Aussies and folk from NZ might be sl.upset at your 'any', you make a really good point.

The UK had sl. less time, but we are an island and boast amongst the "world's best testing"  provisioning on Jan 23rd.....
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1054 on: July 12, 2020, 02:00:07 AM »
Yes moby, we could be better off today than even those countries.  But we lacked the wherewithal, drive, unity and leadership needed to do so.

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1055 on: July 12, 2020, 06:40:40 AM »
Yes moby, we could be better off today than even those countries.  But we lacked the wherewithal, drive, unity and leadership needed to do so.

Spoken like those who 1) opted to hide in their basements and  2) politically weaponized the pandemic to impose radical socialist government. 

[Note:  I struck "radical" assuming you have not been toppling statutes of Columbus.]

If I hid in my basement, maybe I too would be vitriolic, blaming everyone in government instead of a new, highly infectious and deadly virus.   

Instead, my opinion is that the US made the decision to not destroy the economy while keeping the pandemic at levels not exceeding the capacity of the healthcare system.  You believe it was the wrong decision.  We shall see. 

You do realize that if an effective vaccine is not developed, the US is closer to obtaining herd immunity.   

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1056 on: July 12, 2020, 07:38:39 AM »


this explains it!!!
a former KGB agent explains how Trump/Russia is destroying America and the methods used....
YOU REALLY SHOULD SEE IT!!

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1057 on: July 12, 2020, 08:10:02 AM »
"You do realize that if an effective vaccine is not developed, the US is closer to obtaining herd immunity.   

and you do realize that for a Corona virus there is no such thing as herd immunity?
when you last got a cold, did it make you immune to cold viruses?
same ting with Corona
ok...

still in denial aincha?

yeah, you are...

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1058 on: July 12, 2020, 08:19:49 AM »
you extended an invite to our invisible guest that thrives on attitudes such as yours.


Billy,

I see you have determined that the virus has a brain, and beyond that can read the mind of its host, determine political leanings.


You have determined the virus has a brain and has prefers my attitude so I debated you based on your beliefs.


if an effective vaccine is not developed, the US is closer to obtaining herd immunity. 
 

A few Moderna executives sold all their stock and made millions so apparently they aren't confident they are going to be successful in creating a vaccine. Immunity is not guaranteed. Some monkeys got immediately reinfected after recovering from the virus. From what we know about coronaviruses, there is no lifetime immunity and the immunity we get may last less than a year. Here are a couple of studies.

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20200504/Human-endemic-coronavirus-reinfection-possible-after-recovery.aspx

http://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20086439v2


Dr. Fauci said even if we end up creating a safe and effective vaccine, we may need another shot 6 months later and even more shots later on. This tells me Fauci isn't confident a single vaccine shot will provide us lifetime immunity. The sad fact is no vaccine in history is effective on 100% of the people. Flu shots many times work on only 60% or less of the people who take it. The shot for measles is the best we got and it works on 98% of the people who get it.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244038852.html
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1059 on: July 12, 2020, 09:08:06 AM »

and you do realize that for a Corona virus there is no such thing as herd immunity?

Wrong, simply because surviving an infection involved some form of immunity response and development of antibodies.   

I concede duration is an issue, and it has yet to be  determined.


Quote
when you last got a cold, did it make you immune to cold viruses?
same ting with Corona
ok...

Two reasons why one can become ill with the "flu," a year after having a "flu"  infection:
          -  Viruses continue to adapt and evolve
          -  Antibody levels from prior infections (and vaccinations) may decline 

So wash your hands, avoid sick people, and be vaccinated.   

And your point is.....anything can happen?   Yes, anything can happen, good or bad.  In one year,  the world may face a horrific, new virus as seen in many Hollywood films.  How about ebola that spreads via air pathways?   

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1060 on: July 12, 2020, 09:30:48 AM »
"I concede duration is an issue"

probably what your wife sez about you as well
and that "size isn't everything"


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1061 on: July 12, 2020, 09:44:32 AM »
"I concede duration is an issue"


As with any natural event, must consider intensity and frequency as well as duration.  The former two may make duration unimportant. 


Quote
  and that "size isn't everything"

I am not Irish.

My 3 1/2" seems adequate (being from Appalachia, our women measured us across, not lengthwise).   


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1062 on: July 12, 2020, 09:48:49 AM »
We discussed earlier the statistic "deaths" and the issue of delays in reporting some deaths. 

The CDC dashboard posts data on deaths for the date the information is reported by states, not on the actual date of death.   This delay could be week, and in some cases as much as months (e. g., some April deaths were reported as July deaths).

The effect is to skew CDC's reported rate of deaths, making recent deaths appear greater than what actually happened.   OTOH, the same delays still hamper the reporting so the number of current deaths will increase, yet the discrepancy is not as much as in prior months because the CFR is declining. 

Quote
....given what we now see in the CDC's Deaths by Date of Death data, which is broken out only by week, you can make the case that the date of peak deaths (assuming a smoothed curve) falls somewhere around the end of the WE Apr 11 or beginning of WE Apr 18.   



http://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/947157-huge-the-cdcs-reporting-of-coronavirus-deaths-is-suspect-after-they-are-caught-tacking-on-previous-deaths-to-current-totals-special?utm_source=c-alrt&utm_medium=c-alrt-email&utm_term=c-alrt-AOL&utm_content=4-Y17L3E59vH9h8JWpVHtBg..A

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1063 on: July 12, 2020, 10:41:04 PM »


Instead, my opinion is that the US made the decision to not destroy the economy while keeping the pandemic at levels not exceeding the capacity of the healthcare system.  You believe it was the wrong decision.  We shall see. 

You do realize that if an effective vaccine is not developed, the US is closer to obtaining herd immunity.

OMG, Gator ...


1/ 'Herd immunity?'  Please tell us what YOU 'know' about 'herd immunity' ?...

2/ As for capacity not being exceeded: "As of Tuesday, more than 5,000 Florida patients were using roughly 83% of the states more than 6,000 ICU beds.
ICU beds are running out at several hospitals in some of the states most-populated counties, including Miami-Dade County, Orange County, Hillsborough County and Broward County. "

The denial is strong in you ..and I can see the same thing happening in other nations while meanwhile in your part of the world, DisneyWorld reopened ...  :wallbash:
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1064 on: July 13, 2020, 12:58:43 AM »
Spoken like those who 1) opted to hide in their basements and  2) politically weaponized the pandemic to impose radical socialist government. 

[Note:  I struck "radical" assuming you have not been toppling statutes of Columbus.]

If I hid in my basement, maybe I too would be vitriolic, blaming everyone in government instead of a new, highly infectious and deadly virus.

No, we did not hide in our basement.  We observed the stay at home order in effect for all non-essential workers and travels.  We went grocery shopping once or twice a week instead of daily, masks were worn when shopping.  We did nothing but ride out a long storm that lasted 45 days, and slowly, over the next 45 days expanded our movements taking prudent precautions.  All much as possible, work as possible was done from home.  We did a lot of little home improvements during that time, stuck together as a family including stuff we had not done in a while such as board games.  I have no idea how you can bring 'socialist' into the mix.  It was a science-driven plan all the way.  There was no bitterness involved, yes some frustration with limited movement but it was fully understood we were doing our part to weather the storm. 

Quote
Instead, my opinion is that the US made the decision to not destroy the economy while keeping the pandemic at levels not exceeding the capacity of the healthcare system.  You believe it was the wrong decision.  We shall see.
 

When I go out today, I do not see 'destroyed'.  I see recovery, folks safely getting back to normal including vacationing and selected international travels for business and pleasure.  Many companies have embraced home working and are still doing it, keeping their physical offices half-staffed on a rotating basis to reduce transmission possibilities.  Many still wear masks and don them when approaching more populated places where social distances are difficult to hold.  I don't see much cheek kissing and hugging going on nowadays.  All this is a result of re-opening when numbers were down and not up.

Quote
You do realize that if an effective vaccine is not developed, the US is closer to obtaining herd immunity.

Closer, but not there by a long shot. Even if we consider total cases are now 10 times what was detected, we're still talking 30 million with 300 more to go (remember not all infected are gaining adequate, even medium-term immunity and much is uncertain).   Still, far too much fuel to burn and many, many more deaths - too many.  Despite docs and nurses having learned a lot more about treating the toll, this virus takes on our bodies, despite better chances of staying alive, the sheer numbers we are talking about to reach any decent level of 'herd immunity' and resulting death toll is very very high and the rate of infection that would be necessary to do so would be very likely much more than our health system can handle, presenting the case for higher rates of mortality.

There is no easy solution Gator.  Many countries took a more organized, prudent route and are enjoying the fruits of their sacrifices nowadays, being able to live, work and play in a much safer environment.  We in the US decided we could end our stay at home orders early, before numbers dropped.  The proof is in the pudding this has not worked well at all in many states, including where you live.  Not only are levels of infections detected higher than before, but more concerning positivity rates.  Healthcare assets are already reporting being stretched and it will only get worse.





http://covidactnow.org/us/fl/?s=665110

Quote
Florida has about 6,244 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 64% (4,005) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 2,239 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 2,558 are needed by COVID cases, or >100% of available beds. This suggests hospitals cannot absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity. Aggressive action urgently needed.

Quote
Per best available data, Florida has 1,600 contact tracers. With an average of 9,208 new daily cases, we estimate Florida needs 46,040 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that Florida is likely able to trace only 3% of new COVID infections in 48 hours. These low levels of tracing suggest there may be an active outbreak underway in Florida, or almost no tracing capacity exists. Aggressive action urgently needed.

Quote
On average, each person in Florida with COVID is infecting 1.22 other people. As such, the total number of active cases in Florida is growing at an unsustainable rate. If this trend continues, the hospital system may become overloaded. Caution is warranted.

How is this helping the economy when folks now having to face reverting to a higher level of restrictions and even lockdowns Gator?  A 'stop 'n go' economy is likely worse as folks had to reinvest to reopen this time around.  Food that was ordered to stock restaurants may well go bad. Folks re-hired back on unemployment, landlords that still won't get paid.  It's a circle of crisis that is much worse than a one time deal.

It's bad Gator, very bad and not getting any better soon.  Our denial and selfishness has made the situation much worse than it should or could be.


« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 01:34:24 AM by BC »

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1065 on: July 13, 2020, 01:09:14 AM »
You have determined the virus has a brain and has prefers my attitude so I debated you based on your beliefs.

Total nonsense.... literally.  You are grasping at straws that are not even there.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1066 on: July 13, 2020, 02:53:47 AM »
I have to admit I am getting very tired and bored by all the arguing about this virus.  Looking at the big picture there seems to be only a few truths that are relevant and all the bullshit about charts and graphs is just finding something to knit pick about.
1.  Very little was known about the virus in the beginning and while all the scientists were arguing, governments had to make decisions that were their best guesses.   Some worked better than others.
2.  The idea of isolating the infected from the rest of the population was ineffective.  This was primarily to do with the long incubation period between infection and symptoms (they say up to 14 days).  This means a significant part of the population is spreading the virus without knowing it or having symptoms.  In the initial phase, there was no instant test of the population at large to determine if they were carrying the virus.  That being the case, it is impossible to try to isolate the infected from the not infected.  A total waste of time and money.  Furthermore, the idea of contact tracing is ridiculous.  Once the cows are out of the barn, it is too late!
3.  There was no proven treatment for those that became symptomatic other than hospitalization, oxygen and ventilators for the worse cases.
4.  The great geniuses in the established medical organizations rejected the use of treatments that independent doctors had used successfully but only had anecdotal evidence (no blind studies, etc.).  These same geniuses preferred to use nothing if it did not have blind studies to back it up.  In the mean time people were dying.  Instead of attacking the anecdotal evidence of the reported successes, they instead claimed their own studies showed the treatments were not effective.  I searched for a month looking for medical investigations that proved the reported success stories were not true and could not find any.  If it were me in the hospital and the geniuses  had no solution and there was anecdotal evidence of a treatment that worked on a large percentage of other patients, I think I would vote to take the risk and at least give it a try rather than die while waiting for a miracle drug of the future!  Also, remember the side effects of the drugs suggested were manageable.
5.  It was learned early that the highest casualties were in an older age group, particularly those with specific preexisting conditions.  Since the virus was (is) spreading like wildfire, it would seem to me the best solution would be to isolate those that are most vulnerable and not shut down the whole country for an extended period of time.  Isn't this common sense?  What is a solution that would allow the country to continue to function and most workers being able to continue to support their families? 
6.  It is reported that something like 98% of those infected shake it off like a case of the flu.  The remaining 2% is what needs to be focused on.  If you believe the medical reports, eventually everyone is going to eventually be infected by the virus.  The cows are out of the barn and it is too late to try and stop it.  There is no vaccine at the present time and the number of people that are going to still get infected is huge.  That being said,  what is the best way to protect the 2% that are at the highest risk?
7.  We do know that social isolation, washing your hands, etc are all logical and proven steps that minimize the risk of contracting the virus.  We also know from media reports that the public sees themselves in the 98% majority and are not going to comply with social distancing and lockdowns in order to protect the 2%.  It's just a fact of life whether we like it or not.
8.  Being in the 2% risk category, I have to decide what is best for me and my family in spite of anything our government is doing with policies.  Until there is a vaccine that works for my risk group and/or a treatment that has shown to be effective, I am going to self isolate and pray for the best.  It's a matter of time.  Can I stay virus free in my little world until a medical solution is found and available.  It is a challenge but going to give it my best try.  Limit my number of trips to the office, have groceries continue to be delivered to the house.  Minimize the trips to stores, continue social distancing, etc.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE......  While we can live with the social isolation we have been practicing over the past few months, there is a huge issue I have no answer to.  If Lisa goes back to school, what are the chances she could bring the virus home in spite of washing hands, etc.?  This is where the 2% high risk category are screwed.  We can continue to self isolate, but what about our children that go to school?  Common sense tells me that people in the 2% group should not cohabitate with those that might bring the virus to them.  The obvious solution would be to home school.  Being an only child, it is not an easy choice.  Social isolation of an only child can be damaging to their social development.  What to do, what to do?  I have not been able to find any definitive agreed upon medical studies that indicate the risks of a child bringing home the virus. In fact it is becoming a political football.   In some reports it indicates that infected young people do not 'shed' the virus.  Other reports do not agree.  My inclination is to limit Lisa to home schooling or online learning if it is available from her school.   If it's only another 6 months before a vaccine or treatment is available, then maybe that is the best solution.  I just don't know.
Doug (Calmissile)

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1067 on: July 13, 2020, 04:46:20 AM »
Calmissile

the idea of lockdown worked ... I have NO idea why you might conclude otherwise ..the issue is it reduced infection rates to manageable levels .( from a 'ICU' and contact tracing perspective)

If you STILL believe otherwise I offer you Sweden ... it has managed to kill off 10 times more of it's neighbours Finland and Norway and 6 times more than Denmark ... by ( nearly) allowing life to continue as normal.

SOME govts have subsequently decided that it was time to go back to work and return to 'normal' ..

As we see in America, Australia, Britain ( for instance )  spikes occur and the virus hasn't gone.

The charts and graphs are only BS if the data is BS.
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1068 on: July 13, 2020, 05:41:41 AM »
OMG, Gator ...

1/ 'Herd immunity?'  Please tell us what YOU 'know' about 'herd immunity' ?...


More than you know about America.



Quote
ICU beds are running out at several hospitals in some of the states most-populated counties, including Miami-Dade County, Orange County, Hillsborough County and Broward County. "

Not news.  I mentioned this a few days ago.  As of yesterday, over 1000 ICU beds were available throughout Florida.  My ER friend's hospital converted a few unused ordinary beds into ICU beds.  Number of beds are an indicator, not the critical issue.    Other things such as staff capacity will be more concerning. 


Quote
The denial is strong in you ..and I can see the same thing happening in other nations...

Denial?  I am concerned about how much the predominance of asymptomatic and mild cases concentrated among the younger folks will  infect the  seniors.    There is an uptick, yet it is not keeping pace with the surge of new cases.  In fact the "percent positive" of tests dropped Sunday (FL reported 15,000 new COVID cases in its 100,000 tests).   This demands careful monitoring and even more careful individual behavior.   

Quote
  DisneyWorld reopened ...  :wallbash:

For sure the brain trust at Disney spent more time in making this decision than you did in your spontaneous, emotional reaction.  If you read about their mitigation methods, your wall-bashed head would not hurt. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1069 on: July 13, 2020, 06:09:05 AM »
I have no idea how you can bring 'socialist' into the mix.

The left is exclaiming racism, blaming Trump for everything especially COVID.   The left uses these crises to push their demands  for socialist-style initiatives.   If you wonder what I am talking about, ponder about "ending shareholder capitalism."  Ponder about BLM goals.    As the election draws nearer, political division widens.  What will it be in October? 
 


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Closer, but not there by a long shot. Even if we consider total cases are now 10 times what was detected, we're still talking 30 million with 300 more to go


200 million is all that is needed dependent upon R0.  That means 20 million tested cases.  Yes, a way to go.  In March-April, I "guesstimated" something like 18 months.   

The world needs a vaccine and the incredibly accelerated development approach fostered by the Trump administration goes mostly unnoticed.  The results will likely not be clear until after the election. 


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A 'stop 'n go' economy is likely worse....

Agree.  Hopefully, that will not be necessary as we learn how to "live" with it.   

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1070 on: July 13, 2020, 06:16:10 AM »

More than you know about America. 

FAILed deflection #1 .. Do try and tell us aout what you 'now' about 'herd immunity'..  From your 'stance' you need educating ... there's NO such thing ... ask the Swedes


Not news.  I mentioned this a few days ago.  As of yesterday, over 1000 ICU beds were available throughout Florida.  My ER friend's hospital converted a few unused ordinary beds into ICU beds.  Number of beds are an indicator, not the critical issue.    Other things such as staff capacity will be more concerning. 

Whether it's bed or the staff to manage them, your DENIAL cannot accept the virus never went away,
 as prophesied

I am concerned about how much the predominance of asymptomatic and mild cases concentrated among the younger folks will  infect the  seniors.    There is an uptick, yet it is not keeping pace with the surge of new cases.  In fact the "percent positive" of tests dropped Sunday (FL reported 15,000 new COVID cases in its 100,000 tests).   This demands careful monitoring and even more careful individual behavior.   

For sure the brain trust at Disney spent more time in making this decision than you did in your spontaneous, emotional reaction.  If you read about their mitigation methods, your wall-bashed head would not hurt.

Gator, I balance my not being with my wife and not mixing with fellow human beings v my Mum's health ..  economic / monetary considerations are not part of the equation..

Common sense tells me that opening ( esp. when there's a spike ...)  ...well it isn't common sense ...

I know lots more about your nation that you can imagine .. being a very frequent visitor in the 80's 90' noughties...Esp. your part of the world  ;)
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1071 on: July 13, 2020, 07:01:03 AM »
Gator,
As you are running away from proving 'herd immunity' is a wet dream...

http://metro.co.uk/2020/07/13/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-months-caught-12981027/

Even if you have antibodies, they will not help if you become infected again....

Even in Stockholm, last month on 7.7% of people had antibodies present.

That's a lot of elderly and vulnerable people who will need to be protected from infection....


We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1072 on: July 13, 2020, 07:19:08 AM »
The left is exclaiming racism, blaming Trump for everything especially COVID.   The left uses these crises to push their demands  for socialist-style initiatives.   If you wonder what I am talking about, ponder about "ending shareholder capitalism."  Ponder about BLM goals.    As the election draws nearer, political division widens.  What will it be in October? 

I just fail to see the correlation between COVID and socialism.
 
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200 million is all that is needed dependent upon R0.  That means 20 million tested cases.  Yes, a way to go.  In March-April, I "guesstimated" something like 18 months.   

Which would totally overload the healthcare system, driving up the mortality rate.  The advantage of some like Germany was being able to get folks into the hospital for supportive care before the virus caused too much damage to recover from.  Such was not possible in Italy, Spain and New York where ICU beds and staff were quickly filled, leaving others at home to worsen.

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The world needs a vaccine and the incredibly accelerated development approach fostered by the Trump administration goes mostly unnoticed.  The results will likely not be clear until after the election. 

You can't accelerate the scientific method.  This warp speed thing is more about approval which lies with the USG and production.  Essentially it is a hedge bet to try and guarantee production for US needs and a place at the front of the line.

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Agree.  Hopefully, that will not be necessary as we learn how to "live" with it.   

You forgot the last part : .. and 'die' with it.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1073 on: July 13, 2020, 07:31:41 AM »
I have to admit I am getting very tired and bored by all the arguing about this virus.  Looking at the big picture there seems to be only a few truths that are relevant and all the bullshit about charts and graphs is just finding something to knit pick about.
1.  Very little was known about the virus in the beginning and while all the scientists were arguing, governments had to make decisions that were their best guesses.   Some worked better than others.


Cal unfortunately nobody knows with any certainly even the experts. While covid is different in a few respects to the other 26 corona viruses it is also very similar as well.. It is looking as if everyone may at some point contract the virus. Regardless of the forum's expert proclamation, lock downs did not work anywhere btw. Social distancing (a high school science fair project theory hasn't worked either). Masks do not protect us from the virus. Chances are now or in the future we will all be exposed to, carry it, live or die with it, in pretty much less numbers than influenza.

Being in a high risk group you may wish to alter your personal habits but, age alone doesn't put you in that group. This virus like others require precaution. Not a total and complete lifestyle change. I would suggest you be very careful expecting a vaccine anytime soon or that there is a miracle cure. Your body is the best defense against this and all other viruses as well. Don't buy into the hyperbole from these board experts or the MSM. They are only parroting what they are told. IMHO, your wife and daughter should continue to resume their natural lifestyle also with some precautions in your house. If they haven't caught it or given it to you by now, likely it won't happen anyway. If it does, then it does. Don't quit living your life

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1074 on: July 13, 2020, 08:15:35 AM »
I have to admit I am getting very tired and bored by all the arguing about this virus.  Looking at the big picture there seems to be only a few truths that are relevant and all the bullshit about charts and graphs is just finding something to knit pick about....

Absurd, isn't it? I'm sure you notice it's instigated by people thousand of miles away from the place they claim to be experts on everyday life here. It's always the clueless that think they know better. Hell, look at their death per capita where they are and there you can easily see the absurdity of their 'expert assessments'. Google have that affect on so many people these days.

Age and comorbidity are the two causes of mortality of this virus. Screw what you see or hear from the media. Exercise the same caution/prevention as you would in preventing to catch the flu. Beyond that, there's not much else you can do. Stress from having to freak out about this can be as devastating to people's health as any other.

Played a couple rounds of golf over the weekend wearing me "Make American Great Again' cap. LMAO. I can't count the number of thumbs-up and fist pumps I got.
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1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

 

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