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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 53532 times)

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Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1975 on: November 17, 2020, 05:52:13 AM »
Trench,

The vaccine, at least at this time is much more about stopping transmission than anything else.  Hopefully, it will be effective as well in reducing the effects of those vulnerable to more serious complications.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1976 on: November 17, 2020, 06:45:48 AM »
I'm a little dubious on that front too. I've not read a lot on the trials as I don't have time but from what I hear they give a load of people the vaccine and see how many might later catch the virus. However, many of those might have not caught the virus anyway. I just can't help but think it might not be quite the good news day we are all led to believe it is, one way or another.

That is why a Phase 3 Trial  has tens of thousand of participants in regions of active community spreading, and doses and placebos are evenly divided in a "blind" study.  It would be more statistically reliable if there were more infections, yet 95 is not a small number.  Lost in the news release is the fact that 11 of the infections had severe symptoms, and all 11 occurred in the placebo group. 

More data will be forthcoming in the months ahead as the vaccination program is rolled out. 

Also, it is your prerogative to not be vaccinated.  If so, what are the risk implications for your health? 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1977 on: November 17, 2020, 06:59:20 AM »
Trench,

The vaccine, at least at this time is much more about stopping transmission than anything else. 


 
Of course, reducing transmission is a national public health goal.   Keep going because there is more, far more. 

Quote
  Hopefully, it will be effective as well in reducing the effects of those vulnerable to more serious complications.

Interim results say this is happening. 

Once vaccinated for my personal health,  my risk of becoming infected will be reduced by by 95% (vs. 40-60% for flu vaccines).  And if infected, my symptoms will not be severe.  That is the interim conclusion of the Moderna trials. 

What else would someone want. 

Who in the hell would not want to be vaccinated?  And by the time your turn comes (say 4-6 months from now, we will have much more information. 

This is medical science, not political science. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1978 on: November 17, 2020, 07:12:35 AM »
You just proved my point about the BS re storage temps.. ((


Storage temps are not important other than affecting how quickly the general population will be vaccinated. 

This is like worrying about storage of fuel in planning wave after wave of bombing Nazi Germany.           

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1979 on: November 17, 2020, 07:16:23 AM »

Once vaccinated for my personal health,  my risk of becoming infected will be reduced by by 95% (vs. 40-60% for flu vaccines).  And if infected, my symptoms will not be severe.  That is the interim conclusion of the Moderna trials. 

Really, it's still 50/50 for the individual. Either one will still be susceptible to getting COVID or not.

Quote
What else would someone want.
 

Everyone around me to be vaccinated as well, reducing my chances of getting a bad case to 95%+

Quote
Who in the hell would not want to be vaccinated?  And by the time your turn comes (say 4-6 months from now, we will have much more information. 

This is medical science, not political science.

I can't imagine reasonable grounds for not getting vaccinated, but yes, some, in fact many will likely object.

Indeed, should not be a political 'thing' like masks are.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1980 on: November 17, 2020, 02:40:12 PM »
Really, it's still 50/50 for the individual.

Either one will still be susceptible to getting COVID or not.

 

Everyone whether immunized or not will still be susceptible to COVID.   However,  the probability of vaccinated persons becoming infected is 95% lower than the probability of those who have not been vaccinated.

Let me explain with probability calculations using actual data from the trials.   The Moderna trials selected 30,000 participants in areas with active community spreading.     15,000 participants were not vaccinated and then monitored for three months.  90 of these 15,000 became infected (thus, a 0.67% probability of infection).   5 of the 15,000 vaccinated participants became infected (0.033% probability of infection).  Keep in mind, this was for an exposure period of about three months.   A longer exposure period would generate more infections.     


 

Quote
Everyone around me to be vaccinated as well, reducing my chances of getting a bad case to 95%+

The 95% reduction is for all cases, mild or severe.  The actual probability for "a bad case" could be calculated as zero percent because not one of the 5 vaccinated participants who became infected had severe symptoms.

Quote
I can't imagine reasonable grounds for not getting vaccinated, but yes, some, in fact many will likely object.

We agree on this one. 

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1981 on: November 17, 2020, 04:09:37 PM »
Gator,

Percentage never applies to a single person, only to the group as a whole.

After receiving the shots, my body may or may not build up immunity.  Thus 50/50.

If not, I would be part of that unfortunate 5%


« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 04:11:09 PM by BC »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1982 on: November 17, 2020, 06:13:10 PM »
Gator,

Percentage never applies to a single person, only to the group as a whole.   

A single person playing Russian roulette has a 16.7% probability of shooting himself upon pulling the trigger.   


After completing three required semesters of Calculus in my engineering curriculum. I completed  advanced math courses in Probability and Statistics, Matrix Algebra, Linear Programming and Operations Research.  Probability Theory can be very complicated, yet the probability calculations we are doing here are very simple.   I thought we had boiled it down to basic  outcomes and events. 

I am not understanding your point.  Please try to explain it without numbers.  You tried in the next sentence, and sorry , I don't get it.



Quote
After receiving the shots, my body may or may not build up immunity.  Thus 50/50.

Isn't that like saying, tomorrow you will be dead or alive, thus 50-50?   Either-or combinations are not necessarily 50-50 probability events   
 

Quote
If not, I would be part of that unfortunate 5%

What unfortunate 5%?    In the Moderna trials, only 5 of the 15,000 immunized participants became infected in the three-month trial period.    That is 5/15,000 or 0.033%, far less than the 5% number you just mentioned.   

Maybe we should drop the math.  I am glad that you intend to  be immunized.   It will reduce your risk of becoming infected.    Your risk of having a severe case may be approximately zero, yet the trials need to produce more data to confirm such.  The risk of you transmitting the disease to someone else is unknown because such an outcome was not measured, but it is reasonable to assume transmissibility is  much lower.   


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1983 on: November 17, 2020, 06:35:56 PM »
I failed at my attempt to upload a graph of the COVID surge in the US.  Very troubling. 

Its worse than April, worse than July.  Not seeing this trend yet in Florida as we move outdoors to enjoy cool weather.     
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 06:40:57 PM by Gator »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1984 on: November 17, 2020, 07:07:54 PM »



Graph of infections is below the data for the States in the link below. Infections are skyrocketing and we aren't even in the coldest months yet. Traditionally, January is the deadliest month for Americans due to the flu.


http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


American deaths per week since 2017 according to the CDC. Graph in the link below. Notice Jan 2019 and Jan 2020 deaths are much lower than Jan 2018 deaths. This is because the flu vaccine in 2019 and 2020 were more successful than the flu vaccine in 2018. Vaccines may not be perfect but they can make a difference. Take a look at COVID deaths since March 2020. At one time COVID was accounting for up to 25% of all the deaths in America and that was in April at a time when most of the States weren't heavily infected like the East Coast. As long as the infection count is spread across America evenly and doesn't get hospitals overloaded, the death count won't skyrocket.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard


Graph for infections for the world in this link. Infections are rising equally as fast for European nations. But they outpace us in deaths. Italy and Belgium aren't doing so well right now. So far in Belgium in less than year, 1 out of every 805 citizens have died due to COVID.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1985 on: November 18, 2020, 12:29:36 AM »
Indeed.  Hopefully, this week we'll be able to have further confirmation that the infection peak has been reached with hopes it is starting to drop quicker (first indications seems to show that is the case)

Deaths are following in high numbers though.  This time around, most areas of Italy are affected and not only at a few focal points.  Much of the country is in some form of lockdown state and masks outside the home are universal. Even in cars if someone outside the immediate family is inside.  Compliance is very high.


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1986 on: November 18, 2020, 04:17:59 AM »

I am not understanding your point.  Please try to explain it without numbers.  You tried in the next sentence, and sorry , I don't get it.


Sorry if I was unclear.

I'm just saying that after getting immunized, I don't know if I am in the successful 95+% group or in the remaining few percent that are susceptible to getting infected.

From my (singular) POV I can still either get it or not.  Thus, maybe/maybe not. Statistics alone would not reassure me and I'd keep on masking up until a good majority of the population group around me are also vaccinated.


Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1987 on: November 18, 2020, 04:32:32 AM »
I failed at my attempt to upload a graph of the COVID surge in the US.  Very troubling. 


The way I do such is to take a partial screenshot Press Windows + Shift + S or on mac Command+ 4 and select the area you want to 'shoot'.

Then upload the image to postimages.org using the 640 x 480 option.  This will resize so it's not too big or small.

Copy the resulting 'direct link' and paste it into your post.

Highlight the link you posted and click on the image button that adds the img and /img tags in brackets [   ]. You can add the tags manually as well.


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1988 on: November 18, 2020, 05:07:29 AM »
A moment of praise for the Good 'ol NHS in the UK

My Mum decided to get up to 'spend a penny' ( hope that makes sense ) at 05:40 yesterday and fell. Now time to fit aids to warn us if she leaves her bed (

She was drowsy and I was worried about her having concussion, so our local Doctor's surgery told me to call 999 ( 112, 911 depending where you live )

An Ambulance turned up and Clive and Annabelle were utterly brilliant ..  To my surprise, I was allowed to go with her in the Ambulance and then asked to leave as she'd be getting lots of tests ( head scan, hip x-ray) 

2.5 hours later, and a bus ride to ex-wifey who was working in a nearby town and she returned me to my car and we collected Ma.

The A&E room was really busy and the staff were clearly rushed off their feet .

When we got Ma home, the Cannula was still in place !

Not surprisingly, she was none too keen to be returned to hospital and I removed it with the help of my biz partner ( who is back on the Special Register  - retired Surgeon returned to practice during the pandemic )

It wasn't the best time to be admitted to hospital and I think we can forgive the oversight ..

THANKS Nat Health Service










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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1989 on: November 18, 2020, 06:19:06 AM »
Moby,

Glad to know Mum is okay after her fall.  Of all the health challenges the elderly face, falls are the most dangerous (for the general population).  Not just bumps and bruises but the like of a broken hip and onset of infection. 

My great uncle, a former horse trader, without assistance mounted a horse on his 90th birthday,  yet a couple of years later fell while walking, broke his hip and died within a couple of weeks.  He was a lovable rascal with a remarkable history (e. g.  acquitted for stabbing a neighbor).   


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1990 on: November 18, 2020, 06:21:51 AM »

From my (singular) POV I can still either get it or not.  Thus, maybe/maybe not. Statistics alone would not reassure me and I'd keep on masking up until a good majority of the population group around me are also vaccinated.


I now understand.  You can either win the lottery or not.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1991 on: November 18, 2020, 06:33:32 AM »
MORE NEWS ABOUT PFIZER/BIONTECH VACCINE

Recently Pfizer reported interim news about its Phase 3 trials, saying the vaccine efficacy is greater than 90%.  Today Pfizer reported that it has completed the Phase 3 Trial, and presented updated results:

             vaccine efficacy of 95% (94% in participants older than 65 yo) 

170 participants became infected (162 in placebo group, 8 in vaccinated group.  Pfizer reported that 10 of the 170 infections had severe symptoms (9 placebo, 1 vaccinated).

Pfizer stated it would apply within days to the FDA for approval. 

Pfizer reported some side effects, most notable were headache and fatigue with the second dose. 

Truly great news, especially the favorable response of participants older than 65 yo, whose immune response typically is not as strong as with younger people.   





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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1992 on: November 18, 2020, 06:55:27 AM »
We have two mRNA vaccines leading the pipeline of multiple vaccine candidates.  With an efficacy of 95%, the epidemic should end in the US in 2021, dependent upon production, distribution and immunization rollout.  Globally will be a different story. 

The two mRNA vaccines and the new therapeutic drugs  are attacking the spike protein of the coronavirus, showing it is the weak link in the onset of COVID-19.   The mRNA vaccines seem to be doing more than producing antibodies, but are prompting a full complement of immune cells, to include memory B cells and T cells.   This suggests the immunity obtained from the mRNA vaccines could be durable for a long time, two years if not more.  

Related to this, NYTimes today reported  "Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint."  The future looks bright.  However, we have 2-3 months of hell to go through.  This is COVID's final assault, akin to the Battle of the Bulge before Nazi Germany's collapse.   


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1993 on: November 18, 2020, 08:46:11 PM »
 
For months anti Trump media got their faithful to believe that Trump didn't do anything or enough. Now that the believe Trump lost the election, listen how CNN praises Trump and Pence for the great work they did.


Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1994 on: November 20, 2020, 07:59:56 AM »
MORE MEDICINE NEWS

Eli Lilly received emergency use authorization for a second therapeutic drug,  The arthritis drug baricitinib is beneficial for treating hospitalized patients, reducing severity of the infection and reducing length of hospital stays.  It is intended to be used with remdesivir.

I spoke afterwards with a golfing friend who heads an ER department and thus is on the frontlines of fighting COVID.   He said of all the treatments available, convalescent plasma is producing the best results.   At one time the supply of convalescent plasma was limited.  That is no longer the case given 12 million Americans have been infected.   I assume such is the case in Europe as well. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1995 on: November 21, 2020, 09:51:54 PM »
Of course the US is faring very badly with the pandemic losing thousands of lives every couple days...but I'm curious to know why is Italy doing so badly still.  I see the death count is very high considering their population base.  What is it about Italy specifically that has made it so bad.  I'm curious if it is genetic, aging populace, culture, living conditions, or what.

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1996 on: November 21, 2020, 09:57:00 PM »
Of course the US is faring very badly with the pandemic losing thousands of lives every couple days...but I'm curious to know why is Italy doing so badly still.  I see the death count is very high considering their population base.  What is it about Italy specifically that has made it so bad.  I'm curious if it is genetic, aging populace, culture, living conditions, or what.

Fathertime!

Comparably with the world the US is doing much better than them. Imagine that that. Europe and the rest of the world seemed to have it all together back in say July. Should we continue to follow that lead or no?

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1997 on: November 22, 2020, 02:24:20 AM »
The US has more reported cases per 1 million population than most EU countries (Czechia, Montenegro, and Luxembourg are exceptions, France is in the same range), and deaths per 1 million are comparable (slightly higher in the UK, Italy, and Spain, and significantly higher in Belgium, much lower in Germany, Sweden, Poland, Bulgaria, Serbia, Moldova, Slovakia, Greece, Ireland, Slovenia, Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Montenegro, Finland, Estonia, Malta, Cyprus).  So, I would dispute your assertion.


This post was composed without the aid of google.  However, a site recording daily COVID cases and deaths was reviewed.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 03:48:54 AM by AnonMod »
True love begins when nothing is looked for in return.  Antoine de Saint-Exupery

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1998 on: November 22, 2020, 03:44:07 AM »
FP,

It is too early to tell who is doing better or not.

Still early, but seems Italy is starting a downward trend whereas the US may not have reached the peak yet.  Obviously, mitigation efforts are again working.

The question is how high will it go.  Consider also the positivity rate which in many US states is very high, in fact, high enough to show that not enough testing is being done.  16 states have a higher positivity rate than any region in Italy, and even higher than those reached in our first wave.  On top of that consider the possible, even probable effect of the Thanksgiving holiday resulting in an even higher level of infections.

http://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html




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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #1999 on: November 22, 2020, 04:21:50 AM »
Comparably with the world the US is doing much better than them. Imagine that that. Europe and the rest of the world seemed to have it all together back in say July. Should we continue to follow that lead or no?

I would appreciate seeing ANY data to support that contention.

 

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