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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 53523 times)

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Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2000 on: November 22, 2020, 08:09:19 AM »
What a bunch of numpties..

Ironic that this would be found on RT..

GET OUT!: New York gym owner fights back against Сovid restrictions, boots sheriff off property (VIDEO) http://www.rt.com/usa/507488-buffalo-gym-protest-coronavirus/

Russia seems to have it BAD...People I know from Sochi, Volgograd, to Krasnoyarsk, Siberia have it.. Whole families..

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2001 on: November 22, 2020, 09:48:47 AM »

It is too early to tell who is doing better or not.

It will take more than a couple of months to know. 

BC, in July you were praising Italy while criticizing Trump.   Now we know you were premature, if not misguided.   

A year from now we can debate who had a better approach, considering not only the protection of public health, but the economy and general welfare (such as schooling of children).  Results will vary within individual states in the US.



Quote


For political purposes, Biden criticized Federal policies during the first and second waves, claiming the limited shutdowns were not enough.    We see the third wave in the US has a steeper slope and higher numbers than in the first two waves.   Is Biden now calling for shutdowns?  The answer is "No."  He realizes they are not the answer in the US.  He talks about only two actions:  1) national mask mandate and 2) making changes to the vaccine rollout.   Phony man. 

Frankly, the steep slope of the recent surge in US raises concern about exceeding the hospital capacity in some locales.  The only reason for a shutdown is to prevent overwhelming our healthcare system.  If Biden talked about that, I would support him.     

As we learn more about the pandemic, we will realize people who voted for Biden primarily because of the pandemic were misguided by biased media reports or more than likely simply stupid.       

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2002 on: November 22, 2020, 12:43:54 PM »
It will take more than a couple of months to know. 

BC, in July you were praising Italy while criticizing Trump.   Now we know you were premature, if not misguided.     

I don't view my thoughts as misguided at all.  You do see the differences in the graphs, especially over the summer and the initial levels when the second wave started?

A second wave was expected, however, I do agree it is worse than expected. Let's compare again the first and second weeks of December to see where we are.

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2003 on: November 22, 2020, 02:26:31 PM »
Let's compare again the first and second weeks of December to see where we are.

When?  i imagine you will have a narrow focus on counting deaths in mid-December, and not considering the general well being of society.  As I wrote above, the evaluation "must consider not only the protection of public health, but the economy and general welfare (such as schooling of children)."  The evaluation can not be made until well into global recovery from the pandemic. 

Results will vary among individual states in the US., and among different nations.  And we can not measure outcomes until well into recovery. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2004 on: November 23, 2020, 06:35:25 AM »
A THIRD VACCINE

The US Operation Warp Speed has six vaccines in its pipeline.  The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines will start rolling out next month dependent upon FDA approval.  About three months behind is  the Oxford/AstraZeneca candidate, which today released some preliminary findings of  62%  efficacy in a "full dose - full dose" regimen  and 90% in a "half dose - full dose"  regimen.  That is correct - in these preliminary tests,. the smaller initial dose regimen was more efficacious.   

More volunteers and locales will be included in the The AstraZeneca Phase 3 trials as they continue to advance.

The AZ vaccine is more conventional in that it does not use the messenger-RNA platform.  Consequently,  it costs less to manufacture.  Also, it requires only normal refrigeration temps.  Because AZ committed to producing the vaccine on a nonprofit basis, the AZ vaccine could be more important for applications globally. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2005 on: November 23, 2020, 06:48:00 AM »
RETURN TO NORMAL IN MAY

Moncef Slaoui is the chief scientific adviser of the US Government’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine development and distribution program.    On Sunday stated  to achieve "herd immunity" about "70% of Americans need to be vaccinated."  He added that if the vaccination distribution and immunization plan goes well, that could occur by “May or something like that” of 2021.   


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/us-vaccine-expert-life-could-be-back-to-normal-may

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2006 on: November 23, 2020, 06:50:11 AM »
When?  i imagine you will have a narrow focus on counting deaths in mid-December, and not considering the general well being of society.  As I wrote above, the evaluation "must consider not only the protection of public health, but the economy and general welfare (such as schooling of children)."  The evaluation can not be made until well into global recovery from the pandemic. 

Results will vary among individual states in the US., and among different nations.  And we can not measure outcomes until well into recovery.

Good post.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2007 on: November 23, 2020, 06:52:33 AM »
Gator,

Do you ( seriously) envisage 200 million people in the US will have have both shots by May 2021 ?


Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2008 on: November 23, 2020, 08:09:06 AM »
Gator,

Do you ( seriously) envisage 200 million people in the US will have have both shots by May 2021 ?

I believe Moncef knows more than you and me. 


Moncef had one caveat, "if the vaccination distribution and immunization plan goes well."   What could go wrong?

     -  Many Americans have a natural reluctance to receiving immunizations (only 50% of us receive an annual flu shot). 

     - The Democrats continue to voice a "Trump stigma" about the vaccine, making the public even more reluctant.

      -  The Biden administration starts making changes to Operation Warp Speed's distribution and immunization plans, e. g. reducing Warp Speed's reliance on the private sector, reallocating the distribution, etc.     
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 09:26:15 AM by AnonMod »

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2009 on: November 23, 2020, 08:28:45 AM »
Moby, to illustrate how well prepared the healthcare system is to immunize America, listen to interview of the CEO of CVS, one of America largest healthcare providers. 

Quote
We have built the logistics directly for the COVID vaccine. And we just received information within the last few days that more than 25,000 long-term care facilities have selected CVS to be their COVID vaccine provider. So, we're in the final step of matching our staffing plan to our logistics plan and, to your point, Operation Warp Speed has said 24 hours after approval, those vaccines will be on the road and 48 hours after we receive that vaccine, we'll be in those facilities providing that vaccine into the arms of our elderly, our most vulnerable population.


Here is the full interview at the 1:05 mark.  It sounds well organized to me, even addressing the concerns expressed by Biden.

http://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20201122183727-cvs-health-ceo-larry-merlo-on-face-the-nation-as-cvs-pharmacies-are-expected-to-be-one-of-the-locations-where-americans-will-be-able-to/#x


Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2010 on: November 23, 2020, 08:32:22 AM »
I believe Moncef knows more than you and me.


Moncef had one caveat, "if the vaccination distribution and immunization plan goes well."   What could go wrong?

     Thanks, Gator.. You anticipated my concern...the lack of uptake (

Too many folk will suggest it is a grand plan to sterilise us...or some other tosh

« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 09:26:29 AM by AnonMod »

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2011 on: November 23, 2020, 09:34:53 AM »
Moby, it will happen one way or the other. 

Sine the start of this pandemic in China, I have followed it closely for two reasons:

1.  Financial health, because the outcomes affect my investments (being retired without a pension, my only source of income). 

2.  Personal health, because my education included some public health science, I knew the threat and how to measure risks scientifically. 

You may notice I started this thread on February 2, less than two weeks after the first case was reported in the US, just after Trump's travel ban.       

I followed the development of vaccines closely.  Originally I predicted it would take 2 - 2 1/2 years.  I am so elated that it required the pharmaceutical industry just a year, albeit the development period was accelerated at a pace faster than ever achieved in the past.

I also made different predictions when we could return to normal.  I did some basic calculations and originally reported in this thread that "herd immunity" would take 3 years.  Upon further research, in April 2020 I optimistically reduced that to  1-1.5 years  (which would be 2Q2021-4Q2021).  See post below from this thread:

This new anecdotal info suggests the US can achieve herd immunity in 1 - 1.5 years using back of the envelope math.  This should be calculated using differential equations because some of the variables change over time at a nonlinear rate.     


The advent of vaccines has thus accelerated my wildest dream.  It is a time to celebrate, not spew pessimism.  The world's medical science nerds are progressing ahead towards victory. 

Online Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2012 on: November 23, 2020, 11:55:10 AM »
Price of Vaccines

Negotiated (US supply costs per dose)

AstraZeneca    $4
Pfizer               20
Novavox           16
Sonofi              10.50
J & J                10
Moderna          15.25

Now add the cost of distribution and actual immunization (two doses per person), and we can see this  will cost maybe $100 billion.  Well worth it considering the US has already spent trillions on protection and relief, ignoring deaths and healthcare costs.         

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2013 on: November 23, 2020, 11:58:11 AM »
Now extrapolate to immunizing the world.

:usd:

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2014 on: November 23, 2020, 01:12:16 PM »



NY Gov. Cuomo gets international award for his excellent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. 1 out of every 568 New Yorkers are dead from COVID-19 so far this year. NY State has a worse death per million ratio than any nation on earth.

http://therightscoop.com/sickening-cuomo-accepts-international-emmy-award-for-handling-of-covid-19-pandemic/
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2015 on: November 23, 2020, 05:13:49 PM »


NY Gov. Cuomo gets international award for his excellent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. 1 out of every 568 New Yorkers are dead from COVID-19 so far this year. NY State has a worse death per million ratio than any nation on earth.

http://therightscoop.com/sickening-cuomo-accepts-international-emmy-award-for-handling-of-covid-19-pandemic/

That's a Hollywood acting award isn't it? Too bad he didn't act like a good governor

Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2016 on: November 23, 2020, 07:57:10 PM »
Quote
PORTLAND, Ore. Days before Thanksgiving, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown said she believes residents who know their neighbors are violating the most recent round of COVID-19 protocols, which includes capping the number of people allowed in your home at six, should call the police. This is no different than what happens if there's a party down the street and it's keeping everyone awake, Brown said in an interview Friday. What do neighbors do [in that case]? They call law enforcement because it's too noisy. This is just like that. It's like a violation of a noise ordinance.
   The restrictions, known as a freeze, were implemented this week via an executive order by the governor. For the next two weeks in Oregon, and four weeks in Multnomah County, residents are banned from eating out at restaurants and going to the gym, among other restrictions. Social gatherings in our homes are also limited to no more than six people. Violators could face up to 30 days in jail, $1,250 in fines or both.  :crackwhip:
http://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/oregon-covid-freeze-call-police-neighbors-kate-brown/283-d25ae28a-f177-4b68-a5a6-882004da1862
 This is the same individual that did nothing..said nothing...didn't care that rioters were tearing Portland to pieces for weeks. Hopefully the police will ignore this neurotic person and that this embarrassment gets voted out really soon.
~There is no one more blind than those who refuse to see and none more deaf as those who will not listen~

Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2017 on: November 23, 2020, 10:46:52 PM »
Dr. Robert Epstein@DrREpsteinNov 2#SLOVAKIA is becoming the first country in the world to implement a version of the #CarrierSeparationPlan I've been proposing since March. THEY WILL ERADICATE #Covid19 FROM THEIR COUNTRY IN A MATTER OF WEEKS. We can too! See: http://CarrierSeparationPlan.com
Half of Slovakia's population tested for coronavirus in one day
More than 2.5 million Slovaks took swab tests on Saturday, with 25,850 testing positivetheguardian.com
~There is no one more blind than those who refuse to see and none more deaf as those who will not listen~

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2018 on: November 23, 2020, 11:00:34 PM »
Price of Vaccines

Negotiated (US supply costs per dose)

AstraZeneca    $4
Pfizer               20
Novavox           16
Sonofi              10.50
J & J                10
Moderna          15.25

Now add the cost of distribution and actual immunization (two doses per person), and we can see this  will cost maybe $100 billion.  Well worth it considering the US has already spent trillions on protection and relief, ignoring deaths and healthcare costs.       

Phil,

That is an outstanding post.

Thanks for the breakdown.

This makes it v.clear how many govts. will be thinking..

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2019 on: November 24, 2020, 12:26:46 AM »
This makes it v.clear how many govts. will be thinking..

Indeed.. if J&J's one dose results are good, they will have a clear advantage over the rest.

Online msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2020 on: November 24, 2020, 02:14:41 AM »
'Your local epidemiologist' is a site a mate in the biz has highlighted.

http://yourlocalepidemiologist.com/

The site is the product of a Texan and she has posted lots of local data.

Now, she has highlighted a theory re MMR having helped with COVID-19 immunity for kids and compares some vaccines.


It is US centric, but still a good read...

Vaccine news.

Overall, COVID-19 can be beaten quite easily with vaccines. There are three things you should know...

1. The MMR vaccine (and specifically the mumps part of the vaccine) seems to be protective against COVID-19. In a recent study, those with the MMR II vaccine (developed by Merck in 1979) fared much better compared to those without the MMRII vaccine (e.g., naturally acquired antibodies, or the old vaccine). This may explain the mystery behind why kids are doing surprisingly well during the pandemic. This theory was introduced in March 2020 after scientists noticed that recent, large-scale MMR vaccination campaigns were associated with countries with the fewest COVID-19 deaths. Randomized control trials are being conducted now to test this preliminary finding more in depth.

2. AstraZeneca is the third COVID19 vaccine to report promising Phase III results. Among participants that got two full doses (one at baseline and one 30 days later), the vaccine was 62% effective. Interestingly, among a subset of people that got a lower dose (1/2 dose at baseline and full dose 30 days later), the vaccine was 90% effective. When we combine the people who got either dose regimen, we get an overall 70% effective rate (this is what youre likely seeing in the news).

Its unclear WHY a smaller dose is more effective. One Oxford researcher hypothesized that the first half-dose might be priming a persons immune system just enough, and that the booster would then encourage the body to produce a robust defense against infection. The US trial is only half way through, so scientists are going to leverage this opportunity to better understand why a smaller dose leads to better outcomes. This is important to dissect.

Unlike the other two vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer), AstraZeneca is part of the virus (like the flu) and does not need to be stored in subzero temperatures (distribution will be much easier) and can be stored for much longer (6 months). It will also most likely be the cheapest option. All three COVID19 vaccine studies have yet to be peer reviewed; scientific scrutiny is an important next step.

3. Mark your calendars for Dec 10. The FDA announced that it will be meeting to discuss Pfizer's request for emergency use authorization. If this is approved, Phase 1 vaccination distribution in each state will be triggered to begin (looking at you healthcare workers).

Love, YLE

MMR study: http://mbio.asm.org/content/11/6/e02628-20?fbclid=IwAR1dl_2_y077b7erStB-R5s1bTHRuf3OIKR4f0H2VYwE2toXc_CiXdcRY-E


« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 02:16:54 AM by msmob »

Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2021 on: November 24, 2020, 05:15:29 PM »
~There is no one more blind than those who refuse to see and none more deaf as those who will not listen~

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2022 on: November 25, 2020, 07:38:50 AM »


Vaccine news.

Overall, COVID-19 can be beaten quite easily with vaccines. There are three things you should know...

1. The MMR vaccine (and specifically the mumps part of the vaccine)..........

Moby you threw up a "wall of words," of which all but the possible unintended positive result of MMR is news.  All other points were discussed here earlier. 

You have bragged about how fast you post.  Maybe so, yet it appears you have too little time to read other posts (either that or enjoy being repetitive). 

I appreciate your introducing another source.  I appreciate the brevity of most of your posts.  But when interacting with a bunch of blokes, please make it appear you are listening.   

NOTE TO SELF:  I don't know why I wrote this.  I had more science developments to share.  Bad sign.   


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2023 on: November 25, 2020, 08:21:08 AM »
Moby you threw up a "wall of words," of which all but the possible unintended positive result of MMR is news.  All other points were discussed here earlier. 


Gator, the post was to prove her creds ..


You have bragged about how fast you post.

No... YOU suggested same, I merely pointed out why my responses might be 2-4 hours after 

I appreciate your introducing another source.  I appreciate the brevity of most of your posts.  But when interacting with a bunch of blokes, please make it appear you are listening.   

Already explained and your post surely demonstrated who isn't reading ?  ;)

NOTE TO SELF:  I don't know why I wrote this.   

You and me, both ..We all look forward to news you feel appropriate and 'newsworthy' ;)


Take care..

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #2024 on: November 25, 2020, 08:36:27 AM »

You and me, both ..We all look forward to news you feel appropriate and 'newsworthy' ;)


Not my point all all. 

To be explicit - I was hoping for intellectually rigorous discussions of science and the implications of a pandemic. 

Again, expecting too much.  My fault. 

 

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