Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?

[Trenchcoat]

We were going to go Shooting at the Range this weekend and bought some plinking ammo, regular 5.56 55gr FMJ, and they were almost out of brass, but tons of Steel at Academy so I guess people are stocking up on that too.

The US is different to the UK, here we are not generally allowed firearms, so the Military & the Police hold complete monopoly over us. That said would they bring about a coup d'etat if matters went on long enough, would they remain a cohesive whole, etc?

In the US citizens can bear arms but the greater power still lies in primarily the Military and secondly the Police, one or both are likely to have access to greater firepower over a sustained period and of course numbers.

I still say I talk is in a state of virtual martial law despite comments by other earlier posters. Perhaps to stop the potential for looting and chaos on the streets.

[IvanM07]

The US is different to the UK, here we are not generally allowed firearms, so the Military & the Police hold complete monopoly over us. That said would they bring about a coup d'etat if matters went on long enough, would they remain a cohesive whole, etc?

In the US citizens can bear arms but the greater power still lies in primarily the Military and secondly the Police, one or both are likely to have access to greater firepower over a sustained period and of course numbers.

I still say I talk is in a state of virtual martial law despite comments by other earlier posters. Perhaps to stop the potential for looting and chaos on the streets.

The Military and Police certainly have the upper hand, but you can see the effect that just standing up has here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundy_standoff

I think the guy was wrong but a militia stared down the Feds and they backed down. One on One though, they definitely could overrun anything (most) any civilian has. Not that I think this is even close to that happening.

If anything gets that bad that the people want to revolt against police even the Police and Military would be fragmented I would think, with varying factions for and against the people vs what is best for them.

The more likely scenario though is First Responders and Military are overwhelmed. In the 90s there were the LA Riots. The worst hit regions were looted, burned, and mugged. However I remember watching a documentary showing Koreatown didn't. Why?

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/koreatown-twenty-six-years-ago-the-guns-of-the-l-a-riots/

The shopkeeps banded together and they protected what was theirs, and more power to them as far as I'm concerned. That's what I really think more people are buying ammo for. In case someone tries to mug or loot their home or vehicle.

[Trenchcoat]

NO!!! listen to me!!!!

LOOK!!!

Date       Total Infected       New Cases
3-8-20    538                     103    
3-9-20    624                     83
3-10-20  975                     271

this means that less than a week from now, we will be where Italy is right now...
at that point, most public schools and universities will begin stopping in person classes....
and there will be some level of quarantine in most places....
and then week by week more and more dominoes are gonna fall...

just a god damned week from now, do the math yourself
look at those numbers do the math yourselves, god damn it!

this is happening because WE WEREN'T TESTING!!!
a few days ago CDC stopped counting the tests it was doing and updating on its website
because the number wasn't changing, and when people asked why, they just took the number down
because they weren't testing in volume until today
and now we're gonna find out that there is huge number of infected people, much more than we thought
and growing FAST!

I think you're probably right Krim, here we are all carrying on like its daily life as usual but its all likely a charade. I fear too that we are talking 1-2 weeks and we will be where Italy is. Italy is in a depressing situation. We see it on the news. One woman in northern Italy said that all she hears all day is the sound of Ambulance sirens, that's it! That's the grim reality.

I'm not sure if we are keeping it in check at all here in the UK, we might be buying ourselves a few extra days, maybe a week or so but I think the Italy scenario is inevitable. How long they can maintain control in such a situation is unclear. The Soviet Union lasted a long time using a controlled state system. We will just have to keep looking at Italy as at least we have a view to the likely future for ourselves that way. For Italians they are living it at the forefront of it all.

[IvanM07]

NO!!! listen to me!!!!

LOOK!!!

Date       Total Infected       New Cases
3-8-20    538                     103    
3-9-20    624                     83
3-10-20  975                     271

this means that less than a week from now, we will be where Italy is right now...
at that point, most public schools and universities will begin stopping in person classes....
and there will be some level of quarantine in most places....
and then week by week more and more dominoes are gonna fall...

just a god damned week from now, do the math yourself
look at those numbers do the math yourselves, god damn it!

Fast forward a few weeks, do we get to the point of society where Road Warrior is the new norm? Because if it is....I'm all for it!

[krimster2]

yes Humungus!
you can come out and play

but before that deal with the plague, the depression, the wars
that are coming....

then you can play

[tfcrew]

Coronavirus Live Updates: British Health Minister Has Virus; No Audience for Next Democratic Debate

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/world/coronavirus-news.html
Sorry if re-posting

[krimster2]

so...

one of two things will happen this week...
either way, the total number of infected is going to rise sharply in the USA from its current level of 1,000+....

scenario 1
the sharp increase in the number of cases is because testing has revealed that there are more cases than were previously being detected without testing! duh!
and so after a few days of having a “bump” to play “catchup”

it then goes back down to 20 to 25% increase in infections per day and then as the weather warms
starts to drop even further....

but by the end of the month, we will end up with at least as many cases as Italy has now
which means there are going to be some BIG changes going on
in USA society by then!!
we're talking just at the end of this month!

scenario 2
this is the beginning of the “exponential phase”
in a few days the rate of increase in daily infections will rise to above 50% increase per day
and we will stay at this rate for a while...

this would be alarming, because this could only happen in the winter in wuhan
and it would be happening now in warmer weather here
which means in November we will have Wuhan

easily have a 100,000+ infected
whole economy shut down and on life support...
and then in one day it doubles!!!
and then again, because you're at PEAK SEASON now!!!

and this is ONLY the first year....
getting the picture?

millions....

then tens of millions....

every year

with totally new strains every couple of years
competing with older ones
and you can get them both....

and the flu infection rate has also doubled at the same time....

getting it yet?  what this winter is gonna be like?

will it be this year or next year that the entire medical system breaks down here?
as well as the whole damned economy

you guys seriously, don't "get it" yet do ya?

also dumb phuques...
please pay attention to what I'm about to tell you...

the party of Trump is doing its best to spin this as a "nothing burger"
as usual, you dumb asses are getting played by them...
but tell me, why don't THEY want YOU to panic
when at the same time, THEY obviously ARE in full-court hysterical panic!
and putting all their efforts into brainwashing you
and NOT actually trying to protect you
why?
what does that tell you what it is they really care about
you?
or your vote?
do you understand the difference, the distinction?
don't you see the basic truth of my words to you
my plea to you actually to just open your eyes and see what's
right in front of you!

don't stick your head in the sand like party of Trump wants you to
start preparing and try to save yourself and your family
NOW!

because once everyone starts to figure out what I'm telling you NOW
in a couple of weeks
YOU WILL start to see panic
and life is going to slowly become harder and harder


and dumb phuques...
especially those with kids...
how are you going to feel this winter when you kid starts coughing?
thought about that?



This message was approved by Joe Biden

[BC]

I still say I talk is in a state of virtual martial law despite comments by other earlier posters. Perhaps to stop the potential for looting and chaos on the streets.

Again, here you go fearmongering.  Looting and chaos on the streets start with folks like you that post such bullshit. It's almost like you desire the chaos to justify the few rolls of extra TP in your possession, just waiting for women to knock on your door so you can finally get a piece of the action.

In 'red zones' where cases first appeared and containment efforts started, no new cases were reported.  The hospitals in Milan are reporting that despite obvious stresses at medical facilities no one that needed it had to go without intensive respiratory treatment.  Here where the number of cases is still low a large number of intensive care beds were added, around 200 and still growing most remain empty but ready if needed with many more hundreds of beds are available for those newly infected that don't need intensive treatment.  Smaller hospitals that were closed some time ago have reopened.

All remains calm with the vast majority of the population complying with restrictions.  There are no riots in the general population (some rowdy jails did have problems since family visits were cancelled) There is no looting.

I must say that I initially thought all of this was a bit overdoing it (in comparison to other countries) but only little more than a week later must say that all signs point to the measures being effective and prudent.  Despite my doubts that Italians had the wherewithal to pull something like this off, efforts and results have been quite impressive.  Due to age I border on the low end of the higher risk group and do feel safer because of it.  I worry more about my parents who live elsewhere.

[BC]

Italy has now updated their numbers and report 631 people have died to 724 recoveries. The sample pool in Italy is large enough to have merit and Italy is telling a different story of what China is telling pertaining to the ratio of dead to those who beat the virus.

Billy, I disagree.

The numbers in China are similar to what we are experiencing in Italy.  The timeline and rate of reported infections is very similar.  What is dissimilar is that China did much more testing than even here despite having to develop, produce and distribute tests in the first place.  In the end, I'm confident that when all the numbers are crunched mortality rates will be much the same here as what China reported.  You need to consider the time factor as well.  The situation in China is stabilizing whereas here we seem to be mid-cycle where infections are still on the upswing in new areas.  Most folks that are tested here are those that have at least some initial symptoms.

It all comes down to testing.  If it is not being done it's sorta like driving your car with a broken gas gauge.  Never know how much gas is in the tank.  China did more tests in a day than the US in a month.  That is their advantage.  They had not only enough 'test kits' which are really only plastic tubes and swabs but the laboratory capacity as well to run the tests before the samples expired.  CDC has the capacity to run less than 500 tests per day.  US testing is a lengthy process that can take days until results are available. Meanwhile, China has quickly developed tests that give results much faster and without the need for more expensive and time-consuming testing equipment.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/faulty-covid-19-test-kits-tilt-scales-in-coronaviruss-favor/ar-BB10HC4s
http://www.biocentury.com/article/304545/who-china-makes-and-deploys-1-6-million-covid-19-tests-week-the-u-s-is-just-starting-to-ramp-up-capacity
http://www.ecns.cn/news/society/2020-02-15/detail-ifztrmvi9818594.shtml
http://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-lab-materials-shortage-125212
 
Added:

Demographics may be the most significant role in mortality rates for Italy which is significantly higher than in China, mainly due to much higher life expectancy M/F 81/86 in Italy, 75/79 CN, 76/81 US

In Italy, nearly a quarter of the population is more than 65 years old. In the U.S., only 16% is. In China, 11%.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/italy-has-an-old-population-thats-why-so-many-are-dying-from-coronavirus-there

One would expect the mortality rate in the US to lie somewhere in between, more in line with figures from China.

[fathertime]

  China did more tests in a day than the US in a month.  That is their advantage.  They had not only enough 'test kits' which are really only plastic tubes and swabs but the laboratory capacity as well to run the tests before the samples expired.  CDC has the capacity to run less than 500 tests per day.  US testing is a lengthy process that can take days until results are available. Meanwhile, China has quickly developed tests that give results much faster and without the need for more expensive and time-consuming testing equipment.

and all we hear from the patriots here is how inferior china is...yet they can get the job done and we can not...and now we are the ones paying ransom for TP from the likes of the 'evil' and capitalistic trenchcoat.  by next week he will have a line of women offering anything for his prized toilet paper, which if he were smart he would offer to sell by the foot only, to keep them coming back for more. 

Fathertime! 

[msmob]

For all those proudly posting they're 'stocked up'..

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/10/as-coronavirus-spreads-i-am-terrified-that-australias-fear-and-greed-could-cost-my-son-his-life

"Stockpiling essential supplies and ignoring quarantine advice can have deadly consequences for the most vulnerable among us"

[IvanM07]

Being that most of us stocked up a month ago when this was widely proclaimed by those with firsthand accounts from doctors that this was no worse than the flu I hardly see how that applies to anyone on this board.

[msmob]

Being that most of us stocked up a month ago when this was widely proclaimed by those with firsthand accounts from doctors that this was no worse than the flu I hardly see how that applies to anyone on this board.

Then you may be exactly the type of contributor I had in mind ..... 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-51823128/coronavirus-don-t-panic-be-community-minded-says-loo-roll-boss

Saw the above article on the state of UK toilet roll supply and thought of Trench and his family ..

[IvanM07]

Then you may be exactly the type of contributor I had in mind ..... 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-51823128/coronavirus-don-t-panic-be-community-minded-says-loo-roll-boss

Saw the above article on the state of UK toilet roll supply and thought of Trench and his family ..

Didn't know they had toilet paper issues a month ago. Were they sending that message by carrier pidgeon?

Glad they could tell us now. I promise not to buy any more toilet paper for the good of the people 

At least until this 18 rolls turns out, so maybe a year.

[BillyB]

Billy, I disagree.

The numbers in China are similar to what we are experiencing in Italy.  The timeline and rate of reported infections is very similar.

I've watch the John Hopkins reporting from the beginning and China never reported the same way Italy is reporting. Italy currently reports 631 dead and 724 recoveries. China currently reports 3162 dead and 61,559 recoveries which means they are much more immune to the virus compared to Italians. I seriously doubt it. When China had around 600 deaths like Italy has currently, they reported around 11,000 recoveries.

China had this virus longer than Italy and has just over 80k infections. Italy has just over 8k infections. China has 23 times the population yet they have just 10 times more infection than Italy. China has massively under reported what was going on in their country. One out of every 6000 Italians is infected. One out of every 17,284 Chinese is infected. Based on the amount of time the virus ran around China, China should be worse off but instead Italians are infected at near 3 times the rate the Chinese are. Heck, the county I live in is infected at a higher rate than China per person.

[Trenchcoat]

I've watch the John Hopkins reporting from the beginning and China never reported the same way Italy is reporting. Italy currently reports 631 dead and 724 recoveries.

Indeed, in this country I notice the news service reported these figures I guess to let it start seeping out the actual mortality to survival rate probably so they aren't accused later of covering it up as the WHO have done so far.

So it's roughly one third died, two thirds lived. Matters could be worse but it's still a shockingly high mortality rate especially when put against the 1-2 percent mortality rate the WHO were originally trying to make out. I'm not sure if people really caught on that much here as they only briefly reported it and didn't go into any lengthy analysis of the figures at all.

I'm thinking a lot of people are still thinking those deaths were nearly all elderly with underlying health conditions. Many probably were but there could be a range of ages in there. They don't seem to be coming forward with any statistical breakdown of who died by age group and any statistics of how many who died had existing health problems. If they did I think a lot more people would be panicking.

I think also at the moment as the numbers that are infected are still quite small people are focusing on that rather than any long term situation of mass infection/society collapsing. I think most are just trying to get on with life as normal and hope the finger of fate doesn't land on them. At the moment the odds of that are still very low in the UK, but obviously it falls on some people each day. So it's still a few hundred in a population of nearly 68 Million.

I don't see that a societal breakdown would be a place that many people would want to be. It would make living worse than the present situation. How long we go on working until time out is called and the state quarentines the country in lockdown and self isolates everyone I don't know. I imagine in Italy some people still work to keep the lights on such as delivery drivers, supermarket workers, etc. Until they call time out most of us are just living with the risk however small of catching the virus yet many of us can only go without an income for so long and businesses & the government can only go on so long with minimal trade going on.

There seems to be two ways this virus will end.

1). A vaccine will be produced and eventually distributed.

2). It will run out of steam either having infected a lot of people and/or quarentining reducing reducing those available to infect.

A vaccine is probably at least a few months away, six months probably or more to a year or so. Odds are we will get lockdown before then and I'm guessing they will try to reduce it spreading till a vaccine comes out and use s combination of both of the above.

I reckon when they force people to stay at home in lockdown that is when the economic process of doing things will change in this country. Employers will be forced to allow employees to work from home in a trade is better than no trade situation. At the moment I don't think many are bothering as they don't want the disruption to their normal ways of working. Over time those that can't work from home will be allowed to go back to work once the numbers of infected tail off as they won't be able to keep up keeping everyone away from work indefinitely. The risk will then just be there until everyone gets vaccination then the whole matter will be concluded I reckon. It will probably drag in a while before everyone gets the vaccine so probably a good 18 months or so for us to endure all of this I'm thinking.

[Trenchcoat]

Then you may be exactly the type of contributor I had in mind ..... 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-51823128/coronavirus-don-t-panic-be-community-minded-says-loo-roll-boss

Saw the above article on the state of UK toilet roll supply and thought of Trench and his family ..

Your not thinking deeper than what they tell you in the article Mobers. Yes in theory they can supply all that is needed and more so, but the government is probably going to go into lockdown at some point in the UK and/or reduce the numbers of people working. So how is that going to affect supply? It is likely to go down, it may not, it will depend on how many are allowed to keep up working. If the government does not go into lockdown and the situation becomes worse then it comes down to how many people will call in sick either because they are or more likely because they don't want to take the risk and would rather make sure themselves and their family are safe and at least risk. Many people if push comes to shove will look to safeguard their way of life rather than ending up in a miserable situation.

Toilet roll is not the most pressing item as it can be substituted with newspaper (not that there is as much of that as there once was), leaves from the garden, etc. It all a case of whether you want to take the risk that you may be wiping your behind and it not feeling too great Mobers

[Trenchcoat]

For all those proudly posting they're 'stocked up'..

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/10/as-coronavirus-spreads-i-am-terrified-that-australias-fear-and-greed-could-cost-my-son-his-life

"Stockpiling essential supplies and ignoring quarantine advice can have deadly consequences for the most vulnerable among us"

They had plenty of time to stock up and chose not to despite their child's illnesses.

Problem with society is that everyone wants to knock out kids and sustain those with bad incurable medical problems for as long as possible. That is only natural and emotional but society and the world is creaking under the burden of it all. I don't wish not for people to survive but I'm not sure whether it is possible to keep on the way we have been going with trying to prolong life to the bitter end which is not necessarily humane for that people anyway.

[BC]

Billy,

you disregarded my previous posts explaining the difference in mortality.  Also, a lot more testing per capita in China was done than in Italy.

Wuhan area has a population of around 11 million.

Recalculate with these additional factors and add in a bit of oranges with your apples.

Sure it started in China before they were able to notice something amiss, detect it and create a test for it.  I guesstimate 3 weeks or so and this stuff moves pretty fast.

[msmob]

EXACTLY the response I expected ..

They had plenty of time to stock up and chose not to despite their child's illnesses.

Problem with society is that everyone wants to knock out kids and sustain those with bad incurable medical problems for as long as possible. That is only natural and emotional but society and the world is creaking under the burden of it all. I don't wish not for people to survive but I'm not sure whether it is possible to keep on the way we have been going with trying to prolong life to the bitter end which is not necessarily humane for that people anyway.

Thank goodness not everyone is  as selfish as you

[Trenchcoat]

EXACTLY the response I expected ..


Thank goodness not everyone is  as selfish as you

Yeah, the complaint from everyone who was too tardy to have the intellect to realise they needed to get in quick. Lol

[BC]

Hope Trench never has kids lest they are born or become disabled.  Guess he'd pull the plug on his own kid or wife with a smile on his face.

Guess he also doesn't need his retirement or other benefits that will be paid for by 'knocked out kids'.

Must suck to be you Trenchie.

[Trenchcoat]

Again, here you go fearmongering.  Looting and chaos on the streets start with folks like you that post such bullshit. It's almost like you desire the chaos to justify the few rolls of extra TP in your possession, just waiting for women to knock on your door so you can finally get a piece of the action.

I'm sorry BC I keep mistaking the Italian flag for the Irish one, they look so similar, you must if course be very concerned to be stuck in the thick of it all. It must be scary having your personal liabilities such as freedom of movement taken away from you. You're probably right, best to not think of it in such stark terms and get on with life the best you can.

Anyway, yep I could have the women lining up ready to part em for a few ply each I guess

Who would have thought my purchase would pay off in such a wonderful way!

[Trenchcoat]

Hope Trench never has kids lest they are born or become disabled.  Guess he'd pull the plug on his own kid or wife with a smile on his face.

Guess he also doesn't need his retirement or other benefits that will be paid for by 'knocked out kids'.

Must suck to be you Trenchie.

BC, even many of the actual sufferers themselves have had enough at the end of the day, hence the 'assisted suicide' to die with dignity lot. Yet some of us insist on prolonging their pain, misery and suffering such is the wish of others for the sanctity of life for them.

You know even many Doctors in good health chose to carry tattoos and other insignia to 'please do not resuscitate' themselves if they should suffer a heart attack or similar. The pain and agony of some numpty breaking your rib cage that invariably often happens during CPR only to likely die a little while later is something they would rather avoid.

The problem is these days we here it all too often, 'my son/daughter has this or that'. Like it or not it's becoming a big burden to society. I'm not saying to knock them off or give them no treatment but all that treatment is very expensive and their quality off life is not good. Some of these women even go on to have other children and keep having kids with similar problems. This virus as little as we like it could be nature's way of alleviating society of what we do not want to deal with ourselves. It's not nice nor wanted nor welcomed by me, it's just happening regardless of how we feel.

[BC]

What's to be sorry about Trench?  Don't stand behind your own words?

We're doing fine, getting ready to go do some quick shopping in town, drop by the ATM machine and get a coffee on the way back, prepare a nice lunch, take a nice 'nap' together. Maybe I'll start working on the pool a bit this afternoon as it's already getting warmer and swimming season isn't far off.  In all, more than you can even dream of doing today which mainly consists of posting drivel here and switching to pornhub every now and again for a quick pull.  Our temporary 'restrictions' are nothing compared to the permanent limits of that which resides between your ears.