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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 75258 times)

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Online GQBlues

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1700 on: April 01, 2020, 10:07:50 AM »
Hard to follow that graph every day, BC. To quote an old Chinese proverb, 'a watched pot never boils'.

It will dive down eventually.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BC

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« Reply #1701 on: April 01, 2020, 10:37:23 AM »
Yes, it is hard GQ, but not even half as painful as watching the US numbers that just keep going up and up with no end in sight. Add that in relative terms we (US) are just at the beginning.  My guesstimate, at least another 10 days before starting to reach the beginning of a peak and we're already up to 1000 deaths/day. 

The doubling rate for the US is 5 days, so looking at this rate looking at 400,000 in 5 days and 800,000 in 10.  In two weeks could be somewhere in the 2 million range.

Italy has slowed to a 15-day doubling rate and will hopefully keep slowing to infinity before it doubles again.

Current doubling rate is shown at the bottom of this page http://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/number-of-coronavirus-cases-by-country/
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:57:12 AM by BC »

Online msmob

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« Reply #1702 on: April 01, 2020, 10:42:35 AM »
Yes i'm saying total lockdown,social distancing and self-isolation is an over-reaction...caused by mass hysteria.

Swedens way of doing it so far is much more sensible...which is the way Boris Johnson wanted to go until being pressurised otherwise by Macron making threats after the ludicrous Imperial College project fear report.

Macron was crapping himself because he knew if things stayed as they were our economy would still be strong after the virus passes,while his would be in tatters...so he seized on the Imperial college report to make demands on Johnson.

Now both economies will be in tatters.....Boris was weak and should have told Macron we won't be dictated to by him or some dodgy report.

This is the same college that caused the unnecessary slaughter of untold cattle and sheep with their project fear foot and mouth disease claims until the Govt Chief scientist stepped in and stopped the carnage.

People at high-risk of death from the Corona virus,such as over 70's and younger people with underlying serious health problems,could have gone into self-isolation for three months ,whilst the rest of the population could have got on with keeping the country/economy alive.

Ri-ight ... so you are now suggesting BoJo 'obeyed' Macron ?  ...  Mr 'Brexit' ..? )))

1/ Young people were not considered at risk

2/ 'Sending over 70's into self-isolation earlier' .. and WHO was going to stay with them for all that time ?   As someone doing just that ...

3/  The UK has been on 'lock down' for only 10 days... given MUPPETS that feel as you seem to were crawling all over the Lake district, Wales, The Broads and cramming onto beaches ( even) ... 

It's FAR too early to know if Sweden's got it right - but looking at the numbers it's death rates are still similar ( if not sl. higher ) than the UK

I suggest you'd have been better off in Belarus ... nobody's dying there...right ? ....

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online Nightwish

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« Reply #1703 on: April 01, 2020, 10:43:37 AM »

Our schools, preschool and elementary is still fully open including daycare centers, and no "shutdown" is in sight, and compared to our closest neighbors Norway and Denmark, it doesn't seem to have any negative effect as of now.

and for those who do not know, every child from 1 year old has the right to go to daycare up to 4 hours even if you are unemployed - involuntary or by choice -
So here it's business as usual when it comes to that, but of course many parents who are home either workless or working are choosing to keep their daycare-old kids at home as well, but school is still mandatory.
Higher education (college and university is closed and done by distance)
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:45:33 AM by Nightwish »
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Offline Boethius

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« Reply #1704 on: April 01, 2020, 10:49:45 AM »
Still no evidence of lockdowns,social distancing or self-isolation making any positive difference...with the ensuing suicides and stress related deaths all still to follow due to crashing economies caused by hysteria.


According to an epidemiologist that I know, one person with the flu can infect up to three other people.  One person with COVID-19 can infect up to 59,000 people.  That is why all these measures are being taken. 


I don't really believe governments would ask us to isolate and close down the economy.  It's not in their self interests.


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Online GQBlues

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« Reply #1705 on: April 01, 2020, 10:56:27 AM »
Yes it is hard GQ, but not even half as painful as watching the US numbers that just keep going up and up with no end in sight. Add that in relative terms we (US) are just at the beginning.  My guesstimate, at least another 10 days before starting to reach the beginning of a peak and we're already up to 1000 deaths/day.

I'm sure you're aware they are reporting anywhere between 100k-250k death toll when all is said and done. They already extended the period to 30 days (EO April). They've (models) been wrong before, so hopefully it isn't the last time.

We'll see...
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:59:45 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BC

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« Reply #1706 on: April 01, 2020, 11:08:38 AM »
GQ,

see my edits above.

Yes, a quarter million dead would be very sad indeed...  I expect the death toll here to reach somewhere in the 25-30,000 range. Multiplying by 5.5 population results in 137,500 - 165,000 deaths in US at the same rate.

Anything above these numbers would be very bad, especially considering demographics with a much older population here.

But yes, we'll see...
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 11:20:58 AM by BC »

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« Reply #1707 on: April 01, 2020, 11:22:50 AM »
Our schools, preschool and elementary is still fully open including daycare centers, and no "shutdown" is in sight, and compared to our closest neighbors Norway and Denmark, it doesn't seem to have any negative effect as of now.

and for those who do not know, every child from 1 year old has the right to go to daycare up to 4 hours even if you are unemployed - involuntary or by choice -

So here it's business as usual when it comes to that, but of course many parents who are home either workless or working are choosing to keep their daycare-old kids at home as well, but school is still mandatory.

Higher education (college and university is closed and done by distance)

Obviously because of the suspension and closures of all schools in the US, here in California, it was just announced that UC-universities will be 'waiving' their usual strict admission requirements for incoming freshmen ( freshpersons - sans sexism :::rolleyes:::).

I quote:
Quote
In response, the system's regents are taking efforts to ease the burden on students seeking college admission. The letter grade requirement will be suspended for winter, spring and summer 2020 classes for all students. Standardized testing won't be required for fall 2021 freshman admission. The cap on the number of transferable pass/no pass units will be suspended for transfer students.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online Gator

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« Reply #1708 on: April 01, 2020, 11:42:23 AM »
Yes, it is hard GQ, but not even half as painful as watching the US numbers that just keep going up and up with no end in sight.

The approach to addressing the epidemic varies widely among states.  Much of the growth in "numbers"   is accounted for by New York and New Jersey being second. 

WA, the first state to report a COVID case and death, would seem vulnerable.   It has a much lower growth rate of "Cumulative Cases per 100,000" than NY and NJ.   

This is displayed in Slide No. 3 of five charts presented by Dr. Birx in yesterday's Task Force briefing.  You should examine all five charts, one being of Italy.  These were used to support the estimate of at least 100,000 deaths in the US.

http://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6823042-0331-Briefing-BIRX-Final

Online GQBlues

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« Reply #1709 on: April 01, 2020, 11:57:13 AM »
Looking at Chris Murray's model (pg 3)...if the 'peaked' 'day' death toll is at 2,214 (April 15th) and used that number to a 30-day extension (April 1-30), the projected total would be 66,420 total death.

But, if you level and get an average, which would roughly be in the 600/day median, then multiply it to 105 days  (march 15-July 1), then you're looking at 63,000 total deaths.

Either way, more than likely 65-70% of these number will occur in NY/NJ if the current numbers prevail.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

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« Reply #1710 on: April 01, 2020, 12:11:53 PM »
I think there is definitely more scope for more businesses to stay open in the UK while changing the way they work to a more social isolation way. I've been quite impressed with the way some DIY chains have continued to operate using click & collect & other stores that have the store staff collect the goods for customers that just turn up.

However, there are other businesses such as B&Q that have been too awkward let limiting stock availability just what they deem 'essential'. It tends to be the case that if a person needs something then it is essential to them to get it.

I said earlier in this thread that this virus could change the way we do stuff permanently. There's no reason a lot of human contact can't be cut out and automate the process a lot more. In a sense its a case of moving the model more towards the Amazon model. That's the future model of how things need to be done, we just need to move there a bit quicker than would have been the case. If an effort is made now businesses could quickly convert the way they do business this way and do a lot more trade. Having everyone toe a 'we all shut down and let watch while the economy tanks it' is just going to cause another crises post Corona virus crises. That is something we really need to do without too.
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Offline Boethius

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« Reply #1711 on: April 01, 2020, 12:26:39 PM »
Humans need social interaction.  There will always be face to face meetings and face to face business.  Look at how people claim their mental health has been adversely affected by the lockdown, and how many ignore edicts to stay indoors.


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True love begins when nothing is looked for in return.  Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Offline BC

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« Reply #1712 on: April 01, 2020, 12:32:39 PM »
Gator,

The last two days not shown on slide Nr 3 are essentially flat taking into consideration a higher number of tests.  If data tomorrow shows 4-5000 new cases we are very likely in a longer flattening phase.

A spike then lower flattening would correlate well with actual happenings, first, an ineffective local quarantine in Lombardia causing the high spike and lower flattening due to the more restrictive nationwide lockdown.

I believe it will look more like below..

Online msmob

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« Reply #1713 on: April 01, 2020, 12:47:00 PM »
I think there is definitely more scope for more businesses to stay open in the UK while changing the way they work to a more social isolation way. I've been quite impressed with the way some DIY chains have continued to operate using click & collect & other stores that have the store staff collect the goods for customers that just turn up.

What is 'essential' about visiting a DIY store, Trench ? Order it online and help protect the staff

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline ML

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« Reply #1714 on: April 01, 2020, 12:51:37 PM »
Guys and gals, me thinks that some of you are getting far too wrapped up in trying to keep up with and make any judgments about all the 'statistics' being thrown around.

How about we just hear about the thread heading?

What are each of you doing?

Ochka and I have only been to grocery store twice since this mess started.

We stocked up on enough food (already had a lot, plus her canned items) to last for a month or more, except for milk and eggs.

I did order on ebay a  56 oz container of Nestle powdered milk.  Haven't had such since I was a child when we were dirt poor.  Back then it tasted terrible.  Haven't drank any of this new stuff straight, but Ochka used some to make puddings and blini, and we agreed it did nothing to harm the taste.

Also ordered on ebay 9 packets of yeast since our local markets were completely out.

I just now thought that I should look into powdered eggs.

With powdered milk and powdered eggs (along with everything else we have) we might last half a year without leaving the house!!!
Winston Churchill.  “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”

Online msmob

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« Reply #1715 on: April 01, 2020, 01:06:52 PM »
ML, you make a good point ( I'll try !)

Italy hasn't had food shortages (esp not t/roll) that I'm aware of .. according to my Rome contact.

The UK / US(?) / AUS has had selfish loonies emptying shelves ( despite govt imploring to be less greedy )  ..  I

In the UK, 'we' are apparently, seeing shelves return to normal ...   I don't know ( for sure ) as I'm self-isolating to protect my ma and we've given up on normal stores - relying on food wholesalers who have loads of stock of flour, pasta, tomato puree, cooking oil - just in larger quantities.  We go there ... having ordered the day before .. they bring it out in a cage and even load it. 

Our govt doesn't seem to know if construction is essential .. the road workers laying fibre optic cables in our villager cleared off and returned a week later ...






We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline BC

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« Reply #1716 on: April 01, 2020, 01:16:26 PM »
Here obviously a bit bored.

The rest is just staying home. Wife goes shopping once a week. Stores are pretty much fully stocked with everything so nothing to stock up on.  Baking our own bread now to reduce trips into town.  A lot more contact via chat and video with friends and family elsewhere which is good.  Grass keeps growing so ordered a new lawnmower since the garden folks can't come - not listed as an essential business.  Need a bit more exercise anyway.  As the weather gets better will finish pool cleaning, maintenance and setting up the outside for summer.  No pool parties this year :/

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« Reply #1717 on: April 01, 2020, 01:23:08 PM »
Guys and gals, me thinks that some of you are getting far too wrapped up in trying to keep up with and make any judgments about all the 'statistics' being thrown around.

How about we just hear about the thread heading?

What are each of you doing?

Ochka and I have only been to grocery store twice since this mess started.

We stocked up on enough food (already had a lot, plus her canned items) to last for a month or more, except for milk and eggs.

I did order on ebay a  56 oz container of Nestle powdered milk.  Haven't had such since I was a child when we were dirt poor.  Back then it tasted terrible.  Haven't drank any of this new stuff straight, but Ochka used some to make puddings and blini, and we agreed it did nothing to harm the taste.

Also ordered on ebay 9 packets of yeast since our local markets were completely out.

I just now thought that I should look into powdered eggs.

With powdered milk and powdered eggs (along with everything else we have) we might last half a year without leaving the house!!!

We're good with supplies. With the exception of produce, we have been consistent with domestic stock matters even before the pandemic.

Even pet supplies, for the most part, is in good state. Although Chewy.com was/is having a hard time making their usual 2-day deliveries, so I tripled my usual order to hopefully pass through this period.

Safer-at-home ordinance just gave us a means to do some serious spring cleaning ourselves. Wifey however is already starting make her excuses telling me she'll need a lot of time to read up on a whole slew of tax rule changes due to the Care Act recently passed.

A week before this madness kicked in, I actually ordered a sewing machine from Home Depot. It's still sitting in the garage boxed, which now can be put to good use hemming some pants I'd like to turn into shorts. I've been putting this off for a while now so now is a good time.

I get my haircut from the same gal that does my wife's hair. She already texted us saying she'd be happy to drive out to the house if and when she/we need to get our hair taken care of.

Netflix, VUDU, Amazon Prime and cable takes care of the entertainment side of this. Outside of golf, chiro and massages will be what I would miss the most.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online Trenchcoat

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« Reply #1718 on: April 01, 2020, 01:26:55 PM »
What is 'essential' about visiting a DIY store, Trench ? Order it online and help protect the staff

And either have to buy a load of stuff or pay a steep delivery charge, no thanks ;D

Besides it's no real difference to delivery, there are people handling the goods either way.

With click & collect they do it contactless - you stand behind a line, staff member walks up to a table pops the good on there then walks back. You go to the table just inside the front of the store pick up the goods they have left after they walk off. Any other people waiting que at least 2 Metres behind. So only hand contact on the product same as home delivery. The wear gloves, I wear gloves, so same difference :)
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« Reply #1719 on: April 01, 2020, 01:31:29 PM »

I believe it will look more like below..

You are as smart as the White House Dr. Birx.  Yesterday, she drew the same for Italy.   :clapping:

(See 5th chart in http://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6823042-0331-Briefing-BIRX-Final)

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« Reply #1720 on: April 01, 2020, 01:33:58 PM »
Humans need social interaction.  There will always be face to face meetings and face to face business.  Look at how people claim their mental health has been adversely affected by the lockdown, and how many ignore edicts to stay indoors.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

Some people are precious little snowflakes who will whine about their mental health at anything. They just need to toughen up a bit and deal with society how it is.
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« Reply #1721 on: April 01, 2020, 02:03:46 PM »
My wife insists I not go to the store, so she asked me to order online from BJs (a nearby warehouse type food store).  The BJs site was cumbersome and they had no delivery times available this week!!!!!!!

She went online to Instacart, a service for grocery deliveries.  She ordered, and all was delivered within 2 hours.

A couple items were not what she would have selected if in the store, and perhaps such could be determined by closer scrutiny of the photos and descriptions

I was forbidden from bringing in the packages or disinfecting them, involving sprays and wipes.   :D  Hope we can survive 30 days of this.  I am gald I have much patience, yet the situation is testing my limits

There is an added fee.   On $250 of meat, dairy, veggies...Instacart added a $12 fee.  Not bad.  Next, a $15 tip to the delivery person.  Some hidden fees?  Maybe.  I did not study the prices.  My wife claims they are the same as store prices, yet a couple items seemed higher.  I paid on-line with my BJs card, but we will see in the monthly accounting whether I received the 5% savings on all items.

Offline Boethius

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« Reply #1722 on: April 01, 2020, 02:16:41 PM »
Some people are precious little snowflakes who will whine about their mental health at anything. They just need to toughen up a bit and deal with society how it is.

Perhaps.  But, it is what it is. 

Just because you are not a social animal, doesn't mean others are not.  Society is best served when people interact with one another.


In our home, I am working from home.  The better half has to go to work, although he leaves quite a bit later, as there's not traffic.

We go grocery shopping once a week, hubby goes to the bakery weekly, and he goes to buy milk (for him and son) mid week (we buy on our shopping trip plus mid week).

There are no shortages of food here.  The only things still difficult to obtain are disinfectant wipes, rubbing alcohol, some cleaning products (disinfectant types), and thermometers.  I still have some wipes (pre COVID-19), but since I am not going out, it's not much of an issue.  I have enough cleaning products to last at least a month, and we have a few thermometers.  I assume Walmart would have some of these products, but I rarely go to Walmart at the best of times.

People do go out for walks, but social distancing is being practiced.  No lawns are being mowed, it's snowed for 2 days, there's about a half meter of snow on the ground, and it is -11C today.

This post was composed without the aid of google.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 02:24:44 PM by Boethius »
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« Reply #1723 on: April 01, 2020, 02:42:48 PM »
You are as smart as the White House Dr. Birx.  Yesterday, she drew the same for Italy.   :clapping:

(See 5th chart in http://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6823042-0331-Briefing-BIRX-Final)

Caught the irony :)

Brix just missed the flat trailing part in the image which leaves the impression that it will fall off further now. Maybe she mentioned it.  I pretty much stopped watching the briefings/rally.  They all pretty much seem to blend into each other with little added value in my opinion.

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Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?
« Reply #1724 on: April 01, 2020, 02:57:30 PM »
Perhaps.  But, it is what it is. 

Just because you are not a social animal, doesn't mean others are not.  Society is best served when people interact with one another.

Yeah, but it's more fun to see socialable types being tortured by not being able to socialize as usual for a while :D

Will teach them not to complain of those that aren't that good socially, lol.
No Deal is Ideal, It's a Free Britain we want :)

 

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