Elen, RWDMA, BC, and RW's Attitudes

[Bruno]

Bruno- again you don’t quite get it. You ASSUME that there will be only ONE pairing per person. There can be multiple pairings between multiple people. The point is the statistics are a way to compare between countries on a similar basis. No statistic is perfect but we can compare the relative nature of them.

Taz, my number what related to the total of birth by 1000 people... married and not married, one of more pairing, artificial insimenation, and child from the Saint Spirit too ( remember Maria, mother of Jesus )...

The problem is there is also a problem with number of males vs. females and this doesn’t help either.

This is not a real problem who can be related to the low birth rate... You have lower number of male mainly in the range of age over 50 year old... for range of age where woman is in her reproductive cyclus, le difference between male and female is almost null... Seek on the forum, a other topic was related to these myth...

You don’t have to believe anything of what I write. You can believe the snow job of Elen.

I don't believe anyone... i read the info and make my own search...

[BC]

Since Elen is the self-appointed expert on ALL RW, perhaps she can explain why RW have chosen to leave Russia in such great numbers to marry foreigners. It isn’t simply a lack of men either. All the things I have mentioned directly contribute to this.

With higher rates of abortion than births it doesn't exactly bode well for the country. The only reason it isn't a catastrophe right now is that immigration have helped offset some of the decline in the native population. If you factor that out it is horrendous what is going on.

Taz,

Women and men across FSU usually decide to leave for economic reasons and not for the sole purpose of marriage. There are large numbers of legal and illegal immigrants from this area all across Europe.  Many send their earnings back home to support their families.  I would think for a father with family, or single mother with babushka to watch out for the kids, earning a living outside the country may be one of the few viable alternatives if they can't find a decent job at home.  Marriage to a foreigner can be quite enticing I would think..  often an easy way out for both parties involved if you get my 'jist'..

Abortion is used as a form of birth control in FSU.  Not all can afford (or even trust) the 'pill'.  May sound a bit crass but the low life expectancy for men may actually be somewhat beneficial at the moment by concentrating available work with younger men and lowering pension obligations.  Although there is obviously a problem with demographics the 'net effect' may not be as bad as statistics reflect.

.. just another way of looking at things.

[Taz]

Look at the fertility rate for 2006 estimated. It is only 1.28 per woman. Doesn't this seem a wee bit low for you? Doesn't look very good for sustaining the population now does it? By comparison the US is 2.08. I suggest you go here and do your homework:

http://www.perepis2002.ru/index.html?id=6

This site will break down the man vs. woman population on even a rural vs. city basis if you are so inclined to search. Hopefully you can read Russian. Your are wrong about the ratio of men to women not be skewed against women. In the age group of 25-49, there are only 95.8 men for every 100 women. This is a HUGE gap demographically. I have read through large parts of this document. It is the first official census that Russian has done since the breakup. In that same age group, it is even MORE biased against the women living in the cities. There are only 93 (approximately) for every 100 women. So I'd like to know what myth you are talking about as obviously the other people you are referencing got it wrong unless you want to argue with the official Russian census.

I've read through large parts of this report in Russian. It is very interesting if you have the time to read it. Supposedly there is English section though I can't vouch for how much information is there. Go read some of it and then dispute my points.

[Taz]

Taz,

Women and men across FSU usually decide to leave for economic reasons and not for the sole purpose of marriage. There are large numbers of legal and illegal immigrants from this area all across Europe.  Many send their earnings back home to support their families.  I would think for a father with family, or single mother with babushka to watch out for the kids, earning a living outside the country may be one of the few viable alternatives if they can't find a decent job at home.  Marriage to a foreigner can be quite enticing I would think..  often an easy way out for both parties involved if you get my 'jist'..

Abortion is used as a form of birth control in FSU.  Not all can afford (or even trust) the 'pill'.  May sound a bit crass but the low life expectancy for men may actually be somewhat beneficial at the moment by concentrating available work with younger men and lowering pension obligations.  Although there is obviously a problem with demographics the 'net effect' may not be as bad as statistics reflect.

.. just another way of looking at things.

BC- I am quite aware of that. I've been going to Russia for over 30 years. I am not a clueless foreigner. I speak, read and write Russian pretty well. I worked in Russia. So I am not an inexperienced noob. I was married to a Russian as well.

In reality, most "think tanks" think that the demographic crisis is worse than most think it is. The UN's predictions are pretty discouraging. At the rate of decline in population, according to the UN, Russia's population could fall to 100 million by 2050. End of UN's prediction. Other soureces are more pessimistic, predicting 80 million or so. As an unintended consquence, Russia will shift dramatically in its ethnicity. (My comments, not the UN's). In general, the ethnic parts of the Russian population tend to have higher birth rates than the "white" Russians.

All the things I mentioned before are reasons why ANY Russian would want to go but in general the focus here is on RW. Many of my Russian male friends are frustrated with their prospects in life. They feel trapped in that they want families but can't afford them. I feel bad for them. One good friend of mine when he left the Russian army, went to work for McDonald's even though he hated their food because it afforded him a chance for a good career. McDonald's posts everywhere in their restaurants a little blurb to attract employees. Translated it says "We teach success". My friend has done quite well working there and now has a family of 3 children and his relatives call him a "hero" which he never heard despite his 15 years in service in the army and many distinguished awards for combat in Afghanistan.

Russia has a real demographic crisis (among other significant issues) and "we" (as in foreigners) are in a great position to potentially benefit from it. That is why there is the huge outflow of the population who can leave. Not all can leave do, but many do. How do people think in general this entire Russian dating thing came about? It wasn't just magic. There were serious economic, demographic, ecological and other factors combined with the opening up of the FSU and the emergence of the Internet. In many ways it was a perfect storm that still hasn't totally abated.

[andrewfi]

Taz ~ Setting aside your issues with birthrate which whilst significant, in isolation and out of context, are hardly the issue that you seem to think, you need to understand that estimates of the number of women actively involved in the MOB business vary.

USG sources suggest the total number of MOB women worldwide to be only 100,000. Seems a tad low to me. Other sources suggest about 100,000 in Russia and my calculations based upon reported success rates and visas issued suggests a similar order of magnitude. This is a tiny number. The number actually being exported are even smaller. Women do not, in general, leave Russia to find a man, if there were such a pressing need the numbers would be much higher.

To look at the population issue - the figure you quoted is a remembered figure and is an approximation of a scenario that is not being played out - continuing decline in birthrate and continuing high deathrate. The first factor is not applicable and the second, linked to personal wealth as it is, is unlikely to remain a valid scenario option for more than a few years. Once again, you and others are looking at only a part of the issue. Are these issues valid areas of governemnt policy concern? Of course they are, but they are not reasons why women emigrate - in point of fact, one can make a clear argument that they are reasons for women of ability to stay.

[Taz]

I saw a statistic that I didn't bookmark so I can't directly reference it. Basically it said that Russian women leave Russia (to other countries) in excess of 200,000 a year. I don't what exact percent of that is to the US but that was total numbers to exit. That would represent about 1% of the femal population between 25-49. I am saying they are all coming from that age range but they would have the best chance of finding a way out. Total number of women 18-69 is only 32mil. If you do have 1% of the females in that age range leaving that would be pretty significant Again I will state that I don't know what the exact figures are. According to the US stats there were only about 14,000 Russian immigrating to the US in 2003 which was down greatly from the preceeding year.

One study I remember estimated that 50,000 women leave Russia every year. This study was focused on the sex trade. One site I thought didn't seem accurate said 200,000 a year alone went to Arabic countries. I thought was highly unlikely. I can say that from purely anecdotal experience, a friend of mine migrated to Germany and there were a very large contingent of Russian speaking women at the German processing facility for immigrants. About 50% of all the people there spoke Russian the other half were Muslim.

In some areas we will never know the real statistics. Not every one will leave even if they can. Chernobyl is a great example of that.

[BC]

BC- I am quite aware of that. I've been going to Russia for over 30 years. I am not a clueless foreigner. I speak, read and write Russian pretty well. I worked in Russia. So I am not an inexperienced noob. I was married to a Russian as well.

No need to puff up Taz, this is not a private section of the board.  Although my post was addressed to you, it's also for general consumption.

Regarding Russian speaking folks in Germany, many are of German origins, now resettled as German citizens. Although the big wave of these folks has past there probably is a continuous ripple of 'follow-on' from subsequent marriages or relatives.

I think the 50.000/year figure you quoted for women leaving RU in the sex trade study is probably reasonable.  A couple thousand probably in Istanbul alone.  I don't think this is a net yearly figure though as many do return and leave and return again as their tourist visas expire.  As you say though, nobody is really counting.

[Bruno]

I suggest you go here and do your homework:

http://www.perepis2002.ru/index.html?id=6

If yourself have make your home work and seek the other topic who was related to demographic data in Russia, you will know that i have use data from the russian and ukrainian census... I have already demonstrate that these city called "city of bride" was more a city of babouska...

I begin be tired to repeat the same thing thousand time... if newbies are not able to use the search engine of these forum for find the information, it is maybe because they are too much lazy...

[Bruno]

I saw a statistic ...

Russian immigration to other country is not really a problem, it is compensate by the immigratio to Russia.

The difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons (based on midyear population). An excess of persons entering the country is referred to as net immigration (e.g., 3.56 migrants/1,000 population); an excess of persons leaving the country as net emigration (e.g., -9.26 migrants/1,000 population). The net migration rate indicates the contribution of migration to the overall level of population change. High levels of migration can cause problems such as increasing unemployment and potential ethnic strife (if people are coming in) or a reduction in the labor force, perhaps in certain key sectors (if people are leaving).

USA : 3.31
Russia : 1.03 ( it mean that more people come in that people go out )
Ukraine : -0.38 ( they loose population due to immigration )

A lot of ex-USSR country have a negatif immigration rate... and it seem that some of these immigrant choose to return in Russia...

[Elen]

Basically it said that Russian women leave Russia (to other countries) in excess of 200,000 a year. I don't what exact percent of that is to the US but that was total numbers to exit. That would represent about 1% of the female population between 25-49.

  1 %  1 female from 100 others  I could tell you about their reasons to marry abroad if I was acquainted with 100 females  But I'm not and all who I know do not dream about marry abroad.
 
 Once upon a time being a kind woman myself  and wishing to help to find somebody here for males who I have correspondence with among women I knew I tried to convince some of them - those who I knew had no hope to improve their life here - for various reasons

You would give a LOT!!!!  for a chance to hear how that plague of dating boards Elen singing songs about brilliant prospects for those women in the West  Well I should confess I failed completely 
The answers were something like that - males are males everywhere, I would be needed by nobody in alien country (  that was about life outdoor husband's house) , what I would supposed to do with my old parents, what am I supposed to do with my son( daughter) who loves that bastard former husband such badly, how could I give my child hight education there ( even if husband has money for that - and it's far from 100% cases - the said child has not enough language skills to study in University) ,how could I live in full dependence of husband  as in 99% I would not survive on what I would get by myself in a case of divorce  - as those women didn't know yet about what they could get in your courts  and so on ans so far 
And as I myself had not answerers at THOSE questions I could convince nobody of them
Well just to make clear for you I tried not only women from Moscow who had rather stable life in financial matter ( well how stable that life could be for single woman with a child of course) But I tried to convince women from small Russian town Yurev Polskyi - There is orphan house there. In former good old soviet times there was weaving-mill there which hired (like state's obligation ) children from that local orphan's home after they graduated secondary school and were supposed to leave that home and started a life in reality having no one relative in  cruel world. Also that weaving-mill gave apartments for those children in its dormitory ( well it was far from "palace" but it was someting which allow to survive at least)
 Well times changed, soviet screwed set of mind when state had some obligation had changed as well - now everybody( including the satate) should be only by his own - weaving-mill bankrupted and was closed, people of the town appeared in hole and those children from orphan's house appeared on a bottom of that hole.

 I gave you a picture for you could get and idea what exactly women I tried to convince to marry abroad.( some of those women had to look for a job in Moscow - that's why I know them.)  Believe me or not they refused to try such possability to change their life for better as well, as they do not believe that their life would change for BETTER with all financial opportunities your rich West could offer them.

So I had to drop my matchmarker career 

So if you want to know WHY your RWDMA choose such way to improve their life you should ask THEM but not me I can only give you a sight why other 99% of female's population do not do the same. But here is a huge problem for you - in too many cases those your RWDMA would tell you not a real reason but what you wish to hear - that's a part of this game as well 


Ps I was not correct I do have one female friend who now lives in the USA But it was not HER choice - she followed her husband who got grand in one of University there Before they moved to the USA the spent 13 years in Japan. And all I heard from my female friend about moving to the USA was cryings and complains that it was exactly the USA  - Of course she will addapt in some time - people and women first of all - can addapt to anything if there is such a need. I 'm just about how ALL dreams to move exactly to the USA

PSS about attitude here ( social stigma, prejudice, stereotypes - call it how you wish) to this business ( marriage abroad through dating through internet)  - people gave me such looks as if I tried to involve them into human traffic-sell them to some brothel or like I was involved in sex tourism myself  So truth tell now I don't tell people that I mix with such board  - really people who are not involved in this process see it in different light and that light is far from like a brilliant alternative to life people have here. Of course such attitude is one-sides as well but it does exist

[Elen]

Ps an addition to your discussion here about birth rate -there is no direct correlation with lifestyle here - improving only life condition does not lead to raising birth rate Rw who have the same life style to what average americans have - and there are enough such women here - have the same birth rate like average Russian women ( which low than some south or muslim nations have here)

[BC]

I believe one has to take not only a look at the overall birth rate but also the ethnic groups involved.  As Elen noted groups in ethnic minority seem to have the highest birth rates which might seem contrary to the 'better life more births' theory that even I previously subscribed to.

When one considers a 'better life' as requiring a two-earner household then births in such groups might be supressed.

It's not only money, but the conditions for supporting the children.  Heck I've even seen 'No children communities' in the US, a phenomenon I have not experienced elsewhere, so there are social attitudes also involved.  Germany is also a quite child unfriendly environment.  Italy on the other hand seems to be a great atmosphere where we don't have to constantly worry about babysitters to go to even the nicest of restaraunts..

Considering a mobile lifestyle is usually required for the higher end breadwinners in the western world this sort of kills the idea of grandparents looking after the kids.  In RU this is still quite common but many parents are also working away from home for extended periods and maybe (rightly so) think that it would be better to wait until stable work is found closer to home before having another child.

Incomes, lifestyle choices, social attitudes..  there is a 'sweet spot' somewhere in those statistics that probably lies in a low to middleclass one earner household territory.

All considered, the potential for increasing births is probably much greater in the FSU than US as the standard of living rises.  For the *still* ethnic majority in the US it would be hard to imagine lowering their standard of living as a form of birth promotion 

I know that my wife and I wanted another child together from the get go.  I think this was a good chunk of motivation in our relationship.  No, it wasn't money as she surely could have easily found someone richer.. no it wasn't the country because she travelled extensively in her RU job and had no desire to leave RU.  No it wasn't foreign men because she wasn't looking for one.. guess there's little left to wonder about 

[andrewfi]

Elen WRT to standard of living and birthrate; the numbers would tend to give the lie to your personal observations.

The commencing age for breeding IS rising and the reason IS that women are delaying their child rearing in favour of standard of living improvements.

As BC notes the potential for increases is greater in Russia than the US, but in reality, there is a clearly observable curve agianst which the output of babies can be correlated with standards of living. Family size is a self-limitng issue. Women in a relatively developed society tend not to breed during times of economic and social insecurity. Breeding increases when the outlook improves and then tails off a lot when standards of living reach a certain point. This can be seen in all societies that I can think of, where the starting point is a relatively well developed society and economy.

[BC]

Andrew..

Could we maybe use 'procreate' or 'mate' instead of 'breed'?  I'm starting to feel like a stallion!
  

[Durk]

      Taz based on information from the news last week I would say twenty
 to twenty-five thousand woman came to the US from FSU. No breakdown
  was given, by age etc. (one year)
       
       Elen I would like to know how much improvement in your agriculture in
 the last say twenty years. Andrew and BC are talking about things that are
 common to more than just the human race. We are no different than other
 life on this planet. If living conditions are good then there will be a growth
 in the population of any species.
       Elen do you have any information to give us on import or export of
 food products from the FSU? I know there is info on the net but would
  like to hear the Russian version. (I am relating food to population growth)

[SANDRO43]

If living conditions are good then there will be a growth in the population of any species.

... except possibly for humans ?

We had quite a few years of zero growth (births/deaths) here in Italy. Now the demographic situation is slowly improving, and this seems mostly attributable to the 'creative enthusiasm' of our immigrants. Living conditions have been basically the same for us natives over these years, however they must appear more promising to these 'new Italians' (I am NOT referring to you, BC, or should I ?).

Therefore it would seem more a question of how living conditions are PERCEIVED. Couple that with the fact that it takes time to abandon old, ingrained habits (make many children, who knows how many will survive). And, in our case, that Arab TV channels are not so readily available, perhaps ?

[Elen]

      Taz based on information from the news last week I would say twenty
 to twenty-five thousand woman came to the US from FSU. No breakdown
  was given, by age etc. (one year)
       
       Elen I would like to know how much improvement in your agriculture in
 the last say twenty years. Andrew and BC are talking about things that are
 common to more than just the human race. We are no different than other
 life on this planet. If living conditions are good then there will be a growth
 in the population of any species.
       Elen do you have any information to give us on import or export of
 food products from the FSU? I know there is info on the net but would
  like to hear the Russian version. (I am relating food to population growth)

agriculture???
Well
I'm of course know-it-all but not in SUCH degree for to carry a discussion about agriculture as well

I can't give you numbers ( well I'm rather lazy to search for them. May be in some other time) I just can say you that there are ruins at many places where rich ( or average) soviet kolhoes were in former times. Dieing villages because of young generation's rush into towns in searching for job and drunk or decrepit people who leave there are Russian reality now as well as lost "food independence" of the country - there is such conception.

Moscow with its major Luzhkov tries to fight this problems with making special government agreements with agriculture farms in next to Moscow areas and in some other parts of Russia Whitout such patronage Russian agriculture can't win competition with more cheap ( in some cases it's just pure damping) but low quality (in many cases) production from abroad - like sausage which contains more soya instead  meal or chikens contain more hormonos  than any bodybuilder

As about what effect life conditions have on growing population then I could say you for myself

- I would give a birth for one child in ANY case whatever conditions would be there - even if I had little money, had not husband, and etc
- second child's birth would depend on how good life I could provide to both my kids and on how good father my husband was
- no good life conditions would make me to give a birth to 3d child - I'm not a  sow ( like we say here) but a modern women who has interests outside family life as well. The exception to this rule would be a new marriage where I wish to have a common child with my husband or if during two first times I failed to get a daughter  In this case I would get a try third time But if I failed with such task in 3d time too  then most probably I would decide it's my sad faith to have only sons

So that like I said there in no direct correlation with life conditions - it's all more complicate. Aslo I can add to this - no government and truth tell "no husband" could have the last word in my decission how many kids I wish to have.

[Bruno]

If living conditions are good then there will be a growth in the population of any species.

Strange, ... i have always think about the reverse situation... it is the more poor country who have the more high birth rate...

[BC]

Strange, ... i have always think about the reverse situation... it is the more poor country who have the more high birth rate...

and unfortunately the highest infant and child mortality rates.. heard something like one every three seconds..

Mix the greatest pleasures in life which are free and an environment where birth control does not exist..

[SANDRO43]

Just received today, I am posting it for whatever it is worth (I do not know where they got those statistics, their FSUW portfolio ?), my impressions are somewhat different.

This is E - Russian Women Dating Service Newsletter
http://dating.e-russianwomen.com/
STATISTICAL FACTS:
Most Russian women seeking western men for marriage are highly educated professionals, with more than 90% of 'Russian brides' have a college or university degree. What else can be said about the typical 'Russian bride'? She is about 35 years old, Caucasian, Christian, non-smoker, has medium to long hair, and she is slim to normal built. Most of female clientele are professionals that are established in life and career and would like to share their success with a worthy man. This fact contradicts the traditional view of 'mail order brides' as low-class, uneducated girls that don't know better. Russia has one of the lowest male-to-female ratios in the world, with only 86 men for 100 women.

[beattledog]

Unfortunately, society is changing so much.  I remember the time , in this country, when children were a couple's pride and joy.  At this time, most people  wanted to have children around them.  Perhaps, we need to re-examine out culture

Beattledog

[Maxx2]

I keep checking in to see if Doug has shown up and gave JB his best shot for what he wrote on page 4 (?) .

OK back to our discussion of the dwindling supply of RW breeders and their effect on Russian agriculture...


Maxx

[jb]

No doubt Doug S will return,,, it just takes awhile to compose a 2,000+ word insult. 

[Son of Clyde]

I exchanged 3 PM's with Doug but I think I am going to back off. He thrives on this attention, whether good or bad. For some reason I always lose the gist of what Doug is trying to say around word 375.

Sorry this will be my last post unless Doug appears. I think jb and I both received nasty Pm's from Doug.

I want to behave out of respect for MamaD and those who have no background of why Doug and I are always at odds.

jb, it takes me time to come up with 200 words. I want them to come out fairly articulate and as grammatically correct as possible. I wanted to be a writer too. A writer of short stories.

[Durk]

        Maxx I was just asking Elen about the food issue because regardless if people want to
 stay at home in Russia or not they still have to eat. From what she told me the food issue may
 force people to the city and this in turn could cause mass starvation. A very good reason to
 leave Russia. There is a great statement from a man by the name of Webster and I will quote:
  "When tillage begins other arts follow."  Maxx you must understand that the Ag. is a driving
  force for any culture. Very hard for a young woman to have a family and risk the comforts of
  home with food being one of them. 
       I had the privilege to meet quite a few young russian men and woman working in South
  Carolina at the Great American Steak an Buffet last summer. Our waiter was from Saratov.
       We showed interest and he opened up and told us he hated OUR attitudes, liked the US
  and could not believe the variety of things including food in our country. He was here on a work
  visa and was sending money home to his family. Sorry Maxx if you thought I was changing the
  flow of the thread.