Dubious Mathematics at A Foreign Affair

[Journeyman]

Bruno,

Thank you for the what must be the definitive answer to the whole issue I raised in the beginning of this thread.  Thanks for spending the time to read through so much statistical information.  If AFA sticks by its claim, then, at the very least, it is reasonably implied from the statistics that an "AFA engagement" is quite unlikely to translate into a successful marriage.  

I was similarly shocked at the low rate of long-term success for K-1s.  Very sobering stuff.

Jack, Bruce, et al, I think you are right.  Bud probably realized that he can sell more AFA tours elsewhere.  But I think it would have been entertaining to see how he might  have tried to justify AFA's claim about 7 engagements per day.  Alas, we may never know now.

Journeyman

[TheArrow]

Guys, you all were discussing "the age difference". But none had an idea of another Mathematics - I am an accountant and I got used to operate with digits. Well....Let's guess the situation:

"Let us consider the average working man married to a woman who does not work (I mean, the first year you are married Russian woman and she is having her adaptational period) trying to live the average life:

 

Monthly income $3,333 ($40,000 per year)

Monthly expenses $2,886  ($221 for social security taxes, $255 for federal income taxes, $67 for state income taxes, $500 for hospitalization insurance, $1,168 for the mortgage note on his home, $350 for the note on his automobile, $100 for his automobile insurance, $50 for homeowners insurance, $125 for electricity, $50 for basic telephone services, $50 for cable television.)   

This leaves $397 for food, gasoline, clothing, medical expenses, etc.  The cost of food is about $120 per month per person, and the cost of gasoline for a 20 minute commute to work is about $80 per month. So a family of two people would have only $77 remaining each month, which is not enough. (Even with insurance, one visit to a doctor could cost this much after buying some medicine.) This also assumes that he has no credit debt and no life insurance.  The result is that on this income the family must give up some things that the average family would have:  choose a smaller house, 15% elect not to have health insurance, some drive only old cars, etc."

Wating for your comments, guys.

[TheArrow]

Usually, for refugiee... it is not a question of self-respect but more of life... they come from place where there is war, slavery, politic and racial discrimination... we are obligate to accept them if they know problem with the Geneve convention about the human right...

 

Ah, really? Never knew 'bout that.... I am joking, of course. Every country has problems. Have you ever seen any ideal country? Maybe The Princedom of Monaco is the only one...... But how many refugiees are there, eh? Racial discrimination, the politic issues, low wages and etc.... - these problems exist everywhere.

I was thinking about your words yesterday and decided to visit one Canadian web-site - they expalin all emigrational questions there. There was kinda test online - questions about education, the age, marital status and etc... I did that just coz my curiousity   And according to the result - the chance I wil be accepted in Canada is very high.  But I do not want to live there.:D:D

[BC]

Arrow,

Yes it all adds up real quick.. ending up with 'honey.. your telephone calls are driving us in debt' and 'no, we can't go to the mall.. not even to look'

Look for guys that have at least paid off their house (and thus have some financial latitude for major contingencies and don't have a massive house payment on top of the other payments).. unfortunately this knocks most younger guys out.

As this applies to the topic, I believe underestimated costs lead to a lot of RW/AM failures.  Economic stress is a cause or major contributing factor in lot of divorces even with hometown women/men.. don't know any statistics but might help explain a higher RW/AM failure rate in comparison.

The 'deep end' of the pool is indeed quite risky without a good lifevest considering it's not easy to get out once you jump in.  Sure you can tread water but not indefinitely especially trying to keep someone else afloat..  With one good vest you can both relax a bit and begin to enjoy life together.

[Journeyman]

Arrow and BC,

Indeed an important topic -- familiy finances.  Many potential problems in this area.

I recommend starting a new thread, which will get this important topic much more attention.  Just a thought.

Journeyman

[TheArrow]

Arrow and BC,

Indeed an important topic -- familiy finances. Many potential problems in this area.

I recommend starting a new thread, which will get this important topic much more attention. Just a thought.

Journeyman

I started a new thread at forum - Financial issues.

[An_adult-male]

That was stated "7 engagements each day" would be 7 guys over the telephone or sending letters, try to marry the young RW/UW. Yes it's ask first to marry than see what you be married to on your trip. As for AFA the socials are a extra cost. The address of the ladies, sure are the gold mine. From Tim Wilson himself in Odessa with me. He know's it's more work and all his time, than any of the money AFA makes. I thought only about 6000 marriages per year are from Eastern Europe. No way AFA controls half. Big difference than engagements is the real people getting married.

[deden]

I think you hit the nail on the head Arrow.  Being underfunded in this endeavor will come back and bite a person.  If a guy can't currently easily put away into a savings plan $500 - $1000 per month after the month is over and all costs of living that month have been paid without sacraficing his standard of living, he's gonna be in a world of hurt when she arrives.  The trip is the cheap part, supporting the spouse once she arrives is a different story.

[TheArrow]

I think you hit the nail on the head Arrow.  Being underfunded in this endeavor will come back and bite a person.  If a guy can't currently easily put away into a savings plan $500 - $1000 per month after the month is over and all costs of living that month have been paid without sacraficing his standard of living, he's gonna be in a world of hurt when she arrives.  The trip is the cheap part, supporting the spouse once she arrives is a different story.

Read the thread "Financial issues". And if you want you canshare your opinion about that with others.

[tim 360]

Hey Bruno,

Thanks for those stats.  Those are good cold hard #'s and no filtering is needed.  17% in 2003 make it past the 1 year mark on k-1's.  Very sobering #'s.   Better odds in a casino.  One does wonder why 83% don't last a year?  I am sure there are a variety of reasons.  I am sure that economics,  wrong guy and missing home have alot to do with it.

I think it is a huge responsibility for a man to bring an FSU lady here.  There is the cultural shock,  but it is a sweeping change for the girl who now must live in the "real USA".   And she leaves behind her family,  friends and the entire life she has known.  Perhaps,  some don't fully realize what they are leaving....until they come here for a few months. 

[Bruno]

[user=62]tim 360[/user] wrote:

Hey Bruno,

Thanks for those stats.  Those are good cold hard #'s and no filtering is needed.  17% in 2003 make it past the 1 year mark on k-1's.  Very sobering #'s.   Better odds in a casino.  One does wonder why 83% don't last a year?  I am sure there are a variety of reasons.  I am sure that economics,  wrong guy and missing home have alot to do with it.

I think it is a huge responsibility for a man to bring an FSU lady here.  There is the cultural shock,  but it is a sweeping change for the girl who now must live in the "real USA".   And she leaves behind her family,  friends and the entire life she has known.  Perhaps,  some don't fully realize what they are leaving....until they come here for a few months. 

Tim, i think that the reason of these misluck are simple... the american system for visa... woman can only stay in America during 3 month with the K1... the procedure of K1 ask a lot of work and money... after 3 month living in US, the woman need to marry... same if all is not perfect, she go give a try...

Now, European are lucky guys... woman can visit the country with tourist visa or with personal visa... they can stay 3 month... but they can prolong with 3 other month ( maximum 6 month year )... if after 6 month, all is not right, the woman return to his country... but nothing prohibith her to visit again the man... the only limit is 6 month/year...

A personal invitation is very easy, tax document from state, a document make at the city administration ( 10 minutes and 5 euro )... and it is all... the lady can visit the ambassy for ask her visa...

In some ways, we are more able to test our relation before be married because of the european visa... usually, adaptation problem begin after these 3 month... miss of familly, tired to be alone home, difficulty for learn, for work, ...

 

 

[tim 360]

Yes Bruno,  your system is better than ours,  which places too much pressure on 3 month limit.  Very little time to really know each other.  Only 185 that year for permanent resident status too.  A very small # indeed.  17% are truly daunting odds,  forget casino odds.  Seems more like Russian Routlette with a 5 shot 38....4 rounds chambered.   Click.

[ConnerVT]

[user=62]tim 360[/user] wrote:

Yes Bruno,  your system is better than ours,  which places too much pressure on 3 month limit.  Very little time to really know each other. 

I think that's the biggest problem of the K-1 visa.  People use the 3 months to determine if this is the person they truly wish to marry.  This decision should be 99% certain BEFORE they ever arrive in the US.

It's not easy to do this.  I spent about 3 months living with my (now) wife and son in Russia over a 12 month span of time.  % trips total, and many FF miles.  True, when we were headed stateside, I still only had a "Yes....maybe" answer to my proposal of marriage.  But that was only because she wanted to see first hand the living situation she was bringing her son into.  In all, a very reasonable and cautious response.

[tim 360]

Yes Conner,  a very short timeframe,  almost constructed for failure unless one has spent considerable time with the lady in Russia/Ukraine prior to the K1 adventure.  3 months is very short time.  I don't think most guys who get into this pursuit have enough time to spend there with a lady before the K1.  It is almost like a great leap of faith or something.  I also think many ladies are labeled "scammers" or "greencarders" inaccurately.  They come,  somewhat innocently to this country without fully knowing the man nor to where they will live.  Or the culture.  There is alot of adjusting and I do sincerely think some very screwed-up guys get involved in this and within 3 months...the lady knows that for sure.  And wants to go back home and I can hardly blame her.

It has been interesting to follow your progress.  I believe your wife is from Tver?  How does she like Vermont?  I live in southern Vermont...so it is just a tad warmer:))...just a tad.  Not much.  But it is a great place for her to raise her son,  I think.  Still,  I think it is a great responsibility to bring someone so far from the only life which they have known.  We all live in our "bubbles" here.  A wholly different lifestyle.  How do they like the "box" stores in Williston?" 

Nearby,  there is this great older Ukrainian lady who came here some 20 years ago.  Married an American.  She is a little legend around here.  In very early spring she will go to all the stores for donations of gardening and farming tools and seeds and clothes and everything she can get.  Many storekeepers have told me about her.  She comes like the seasons.  Of course,  they all give.  Then in early-April she has everything packed into shipping containers for "her people" and she meets the container ships at Odessa and then she travels throughout the back countryside giving these donations away to the people she knows need them,  in time for planting.  She has been doing this for about 20 years...quite the lady.  What a strong spirit.  You read these boards and you can get such a distorted view of people in Russia/Ukraine.  The women.  Scammers?  All these guys worring about being scammed???  Usually it is Yuri scamming.  Most of the women are very strong and good,  if you give them half a chance.  If you give a little trust---you might get a little back. 

Good luck Connervt.  I think you brought your wife and son to a good place.  I think they will thrive.  There are also some great exchange programs near to you every summer,

Ciao, Tim

 

[Bruno]

I think that's the biggest problem of the K-1 visa.  People use the 3 months to determine if this is the person they truly wish to marry.  This decision should be 99% certain BEFORE they ever arrive in the US.

In my previous reply, about problem with K1 system, i have not think about feeling and love... you can visit the woman several time and she can see yourself from his own eyes before say "yes" ....

The problem is more about see her future country... same if your are in love, if she don't like the country, if she feel herself no good in the new country, short of late, some problem will arrise... and these problem can be the end of your new couple... not because she don't love you but because she don't like your country...

If RW can receive easily a tourist visa or personal visa for visit man from US, it will be more easy for her... and the success rate from the K1 will be more high...

 

[jb]

People use the 3 months to determine if this is the person they truly wish to marry.  This decision should be 99% certain BEFORE they ever arrive in the US.[/b]

emphisis is mine, and I couldn't agree more.

To use the 90 day K-1 as a *trial marriage* is foolish thinking, I argued this point endlessly on another board a long time ago to no avail.  The way I put it there was that the K-1 should just give a couple an adequate amount of time to get the lady settled and plan a wedding, say 30-60 days, and the remaining time should be devoted to completing the rest of the paperwork to get the new immigrant street legal.  

If you can't afford the time and money to really find the love of your life, then you shouldn't buy the first address or write the first letter. As long as there are men who are unsure of what they want, under funded, improperly grounded, and all the other no-no's we constantly discuss, the K-1 will continue to be abused.

[ConnerVT]

Thanks for the backup, jb.  I believe I took this advice from you back many moons ago, and I hold it more true than ever.  Let me tell my story, of how it played out for my family.

As I wrote before, my wife had given me a "Yes..... maybe" answer to my proposal.  To add to this, she told me her answer would have been a definite "YES!" if it were not for her concerns for her son.  All the more reason to love a woman, to place her children's happiness a higher priority than her own.  We had spent much time living together as a family, but there still were problems with the three of us working together as a family unit.

It all came to a head once we all were in the US.  Our son previously was the king of his household (a common problem in homes run by a single parent. It is difficult to play all roles -- bread winner, loving parent, disciplinarian, teacher).  This changed once the three of us were starting our new home, as he did not wish to give up his top role.  I, on the other hand, can not live in a house run by a (then) 5 year old.  Things got pretty ugly for awhile.  But I claimed my (honorary, of course! ) role as "Head of the Family", and my son is happier now than any time previously in his life.  But then, so are my wife and me.

But we only survived it because of the history and knowledge my wife and I gained from spending much quality time together.  Learning who the other is, what are their strengths and weaknesses, and what we may accomplish at our best (and at our worst).  I shudder to think of the negative results we would of had if we needed to learn all this under the stress of everyone adapting to a new situation -- be it family life, a new country, language, school,...

[BC]

jb,

would love to quote your post, make it size 5 bold and underlined..

I'm sure everyone will agree with statistics showing that a normal marriage with the normal boy meets girl scenario is a 50/50 proposition and just wish that everyone would realize that EVERYTHING you do to alter this scenario just stacks the odds against you.

Thinking 50% AM/AW and 50% RM/RW success equals 50% AM/RW success.. is indeed " Dubious Mathematics at A Foreign Affair"

Those that don't make it so early on should be happy. The amount of work, patience,time and resources that are required to  overcome the odds is enormous.

I do feel most sorry for the women that return though..

[jb]

Indeed,,, there is so much more to a AM/RW success story that we never discuss, but work, patience, time, and resources is a good start on the subject.  I find it interesting that we see the same veins of thought expressed by all the married guys with a few years of togetherness under their belts, while the searchers with "pie in the sky" attitudes still cling to the fantasy.

That 17% figure ought to scare off all but the most determined.  

[jb]

I hope old "groovlstk" is reading this stuff.

[BC]

That 17% figure ought to scare off all but the most determined.

Being generous today jb?

I figure from 100 guys beginning to write, really interested and pushing out virtual ink by the ton, a high figure of 25 may actually visit, of those 10 might get engaged, 5 might make it thru a K1 THEN using your 17% maybe 1 couple survives for a decent period of time.. that's less than 1% folks.

[ConnerVT]

I do feel most sorry for the women that return though..

Sorry, BC, for the most part, I disagree with you on this one.

Everyone places their bets, everyone takes their chances.  If a woman is willing to gamble her life, her future, leave her country and family behind, for a man whom she has only spent a few days with, I just can't feel sorry for them.  It takes two people to make a marriage.  Like any partnership, you need to have a strong compelling reason to put your trust in the hands of your partner.

When I was dating, I met women who were desperate enough to flee their country after just meeting me.  True, I'm one handsome devil.  But it was obvious to me that these women were 'damaged goods', and I couldn't get away from them fast enough.

[ConnerVT]

I figure from 100 guys beginning to write, really interested and pushing out virtual ink by the ton, a high figure of 25 may actually visit, of those 10 might get engaged, 5 might make it thru a K1 THEN using your 17% maybe 1 couple survives for a decent period of time.. that's less than 1% folks.

Not sure about your math, but I did have an interpreter friend tell me that easily 50% of the men that she had to work with were clueless to what they were involved with, and destined for failure.  And she was one of the more optimistic people I met.

[Bruno]

That 17% figure ought to scare off all but the most determined.

Being generous today jb?

I figure from 100 guys beginning to write, really interested and pushing out virtual ink by the ton, a high figure of 25 may actually visit, of those 10 might get engaged, 5 might make it thru a K1 THEN using your 17% maybe 1 couple survives for a decent period of time.. that's less than 1% folks. [/quote]
BC, yes... it is less than 1%... but the marriage of these 1% will be more strong that any other marriage... for all european/russian couple that i know from 1996, no one have already make a divorce...

Unfortunaly, i have only stay about the K1 but it will be interesting to see stat from one year after the K1 and more... when the basic difficulty are resolved... i think that the result will be better...

And these 17% are for all K1, not only the russian one... it was more stat for AFA who work with several country...

Maybe other stat are more interesting ( without give a full reply )... take a look at http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/stp-159/STP-159-Russia.xls ... don't forget see the 3 table...

It is about all population in US born in russia... stat 2000 ...

* situation in 1995 for residence ( more of 5 year in US )... from 326930 russian, only 93515 have quit the US after 5 year...

* Marital status of russian ( woman 18yo and up : 156155 )

- divorced : female : 14665

- separated: female : 6850

* Median familly income : 45690$

* Median house number of room : 3.4

* 37.1% are owner of house and 62.9 hire home

* owner house : median cost with mortgage : 1492$ month / without mortgage : 386$ month

* rented house : median cost : 664$ month

Really, take a look at the three table... these statistic are gold info ... about working, study, ... 

[BC]

If a woman is willing to gamble her life, her future, leave her country and family behind, for a man whom she has only spent a few days with, I just can't feel sorry for them.

Conner,

I see your point.. emphasis on 'more'.  If the man was packing his life into 2 pcs not to exceed 20kg and 'going for broke' I would feel sorry for him.

Yes a gamble, where the bets placed are not equal.