Future of Russian Government

[BC]

Phil,

Your opin is quite strong.. enough to prompt me to ask why you live there.  Must be more good than bad or?

Cheers

[SANDRO43]

Why they like Putin...

Your own, or a quote from somewhere ?

[Mishenka]

Your own, or a quote from somewhere ?

Statistics from government web site.

[acrzybear]

Statistics from government web site.

Which government? 

[Mishenka]

PUTIN'S PLAN:

 Once the New US President leaves Iraq, (if ever)  and  Putin /Iran/ Syria get their way with Iraq, and reverse the oil pipe lines from the Gulf to the North East as planned, Putin will be considered a hero. Oil will be sold in Euro's and we will be looking at the fall of the USD further into the trash. The economy of these countries will flourish. Who controls the oil and natural gas, controls it all.  Of course to implement this plan the US has to be out of the way,, which isn't going to happen.  The only reason Bush is in Iraq is to prevent this scenario.  Sadly, the rest of the world is blind to the reality of these consequences.

[Mishenka]

Here are some links to check out. 

http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html#Econ

http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2006/78835.htm

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/RUSSIANFEDERATIONEXTN/0,,contentMDK:20888536~menuPK:2445695~pagePK:1497618~piPK:217854~theSitePK:305600,00.html

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/RUSSIANFEDERATIONEXTN/0,,contentMDK:21007237~menuPK:305605~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:305600,00.html

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/moscow/facts.html

[Mishenka]

Which government? 

http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html#Econ

[Shadow]

Would you believe what Pepsi writes about Coca Cola ?

[Phil dAmore]

Phil,

Your opin is quite strong.. enough to prompt me to ask why you live there.  Must be more good than bad or?

Cheers

I originally moved here with the intent of enjoying a comfortable semi-retirement with my lovely Nina.  That part remains unchanged; I am still semi-retired, and am still enjoying the lovely (if somewhat odd) Nina.

So why the strong opinions?  Call it experience.

Upon arrival in Russia I did not speak Russian very well.  When one does not speak the local language it becomes necessary to rely on what is seen, observed, and to the limits of understanding, heard.   For a very long time my belief was that things are not necessarily better in (insert your favorite western country here), than in Russia, they are simply different.  

That mindset allowed me to overlook, or at least accept that there are a lot of things wrong here.  What took a while to come to understand was why so much is askew.  These are my observations:

1) The Russian people, proud and great as they are simply cannot -or will not- let go of the old, broken ways for no other reason than they have what amounts to an abject fear of change.  Not surprising, given the history of Russia what with it's having gone through invasions, revolutions, war, and the like.  Every time a new regime was employed, things just got worse.  So when the Soviets came along with their cradle-to- grave care that only required blind obedience, it seemed like a good plan.  After the bankrupting of the USSR (Thanks, Ronnie!) the Russian people literally didn't know what to do because for the first time in anyones memory the Russian people were on their own, bringing me to my second point:

2) Russians (perhaps because of their history) are capable of enduring any hardship, any measure of pain, tragedy, and suffering with nary a complaint.  For this they have my undying respect.  However the one thing that they seem incapable of doing is thinking for themselves.  I see it everywhere, but mostly in my classes.  Students are like little walking encyclopedias... they know all the important names, dates, places and facts, but if you want to bring the class to a standstill all that is necessary is to ask a student for his or her opinion on an issue.  You will get a blank stare in return. Give them a topic to discuss and they will go at it with gusto.  Ask them to come up with something on their own and you get silence.

I have also come to understand what must be a uniquely Russian concept:  That of заморочка (zamarochka).  As I understand it, this one word means "To intentionally and deliberately make something more difficult or complicated than it needs to be for no other reason than simply because it can be." 

This can be seen in everyday life whether you are dealing with the government or not.  NOTHING is a simple matter here, everything requires a multi-step process often involving several different directors approval and of course the requisite stamps.  Things that in any other country could be accomplished with a simple phone call require an entire day.  Why?  Because they can. 

I am told that in the old Soviet days the only thing there was a lot of was time, therefore time had no value.  I still see this mindset in many, many places.  As I write this I am in the third day of trying to get my SIM card replaced because I lost my telephone.  Why is this taking so long?  Just give me a new card, update the computer and send me on my way.  But no, I have to go to 3 different offices, fill out enough paperwork to take out a mortgage and then wait for the chief administrator to approve a new card.

Shall I continue?  Okay.  Speaking of telephones, I have a land line in my apartment.  The phone came with the apartment when I bought it.  For five years I have been trying to get the phone company to put my name on the account.  But this is not possible.  If I want the phone in my own name I must first surrender the phone and number and then wait for a new number to become available.  THEN it would be in my name.  In the meantime I would have no land line  WTF?  The thing is already hooked up.  Go into the billing screen and change the name!  Five minutes, we're done!  They tell me that they must follow the protocols... just like they always have and exceptions cannot be made. (Unless of course I am willing to provide a 'gift')

I have already detailed the saga surrounding the attempts to get registered at my own apartment, but just in case anyone missed it, here is the gist:  I can't get registered at the apartment I own because I don't have a residency card and,  I can't get a residency card because I am not registered at the apartment I own.

Zamorochka.

Even with all of this (and more.. just ask anyone who's met me) I still like the place and would stay if there was the slightest indication that there will be some improvement in the foreseeable future.  However neither myself, nor other ex-pats here can see that happening.  Instead we see things becoming more difficult and expensive.

Emotionally this has left me a wreck because after all this time (nearly 6 years now) Russia feels more like home than the U.S.  I have finally reached a level of competence in the Russian language that allows me to communicate freely and effectively.  If I go back stateside I feel that my very hard learned language skills will slip away. 

But what I find most frustrating is it doesn't have to be this way!!.  Russia can keep it's identity and culture and still modernize... or they could if they would only open their eyes... or put a little more bluntly, take their heads out of their collective @sses. 

[wxman]

PUTIN'S PLAN:

 Once the New US President leaves Iraq, (if ever)  and  Putin /Iran/ Syria get their way with Iraq, and reverse the oil pipe lines from the Gulf to the North East as planned, Putin will be considered a hero. Oil will be sold in Euro's and we will be looking at the fall of the USD further into the trash. The economy of these countries will flourish. Who controls the oil and natural gas, controls it all.  Of course to implement this plan the US has to be out of the way,, which isn't going to happen.  The only reason Bush is in Iraq is to prevent this scenario.  Sadly, the rest of the world is blind to the reality of these consequences.

Most the the mideast oil goes to Europe and Asia and not to the US. The US still imports 10 million barrels a day, with Canada the biggest exporter to US.

What many people don't know is that the US has the largest oil shale deposits in the world with estimates of 800 billion barrels of oil. Shell Oil has been doing a lot of research on converting oil shale to synthetic oil and their own estimates are that 5 million barrels of oil a day could be produced by 2030 or 2040 and they could produce a profit if oil was $30 a barrel. So of course now it is very feasible to do this at $90 a barrel. Still it will take many years to get the infrastructure and technology up to par, but if push comes to shove the US could cut off it's need for foreign oil in the future. I could only imagine then how strong the dollar would become.

[Shadow]

Phil, I can recognize a lot of what you are telling, and Russia is not the only country where the laws are confusing everyone except those who deal with it daily. I remember the time I went to register a Belgian company for a client. The Chamber of Commerce could not register without a tax number and the Tax Office could do nothing without a Chamber of Commerce number.
It took the Chief of the Chamber of Commerce muttering something about stupid Dutchmen to get it done.

But there is one thing you fail to see. Zamorochka is you. If after six years you still have not enough knowledge of law to break through the red tape, and are still American enough to think giving a 'gift' is wrong, you have to learn.
It is not about how you reach the goal, it is about getting there. When you want the registration, find the guy that arranges it for you and pay him. Or spend a lot of time in frustration trying to figure out a law that you have never read yourself.

For Russians there are two alternatives. Either you have no hurry and go Zomorochka, or you need it done and go the other way. The decision is there to make, the consequences of the decision are yours. The Russians do not care which way you chose, after all you had a choice.

For Russians to live today as they want is enough. Tomorrow is another day, live it when it arrives.

[ScottinCrimea]

Phil,
     Your post really tells it like it is and pretty much matches my experience and frustrations in Ukraine, though I sense (and I may be wrong) that Ukraine is a little more progressive on a lot of these things.  Maybe I'm just more of an optimist, but I still see potential for improvement and have seen some in my time in Ukraine that continues to give me hope.  Now that I'm back in the US for awhile, I'm re-experiencing the frustrations that come with life here - different, but equally frustrating.  Given the choice, though, I still favor the life and frustrations of Ukraine over those of the US.  Maybe another 5-6 years in Ukraine might change this, but I think all it would take would be another extended stay in the US to remind myself.

wxman,  the oil shale has been out there for years. I remember my grandfather maybe 35 years ago being told that the land he owned would soon be worth millions because it had large deposits of oil shale on it.  I think though, at the time the costs of production were higher than the price of oil produced, but at nearly $100 a barrel now, that shouldn't be the case.  Actually, if the US were allowed to drill in all of those areas blocked by environmentalist groups, we could be self sufficient now.  If you ever want to do an interesting study, look at who is providing financial support for these environmental groups.  Would it surprise you if the trail led to Saudi Arabia and Russia?  You think they will stand still and let oil shale take away their profits as well?  Just watch and wait.

[Phil dAmore]

It is not about how you reach the goal, it is about getting there.

An excellent point and in fact one of the things that initially attracted me to Russia... their ability to focus less on the method and more on the result.

When you want the registration, find the guy that arranges it for you and pay him. Or spend a lot of time in frustration trying to figure out a law that you have never read yourself.

A few years ago that is exactly what I -and many others- were doing.  Then Russia changed the law.  Then they changed it again, and yet again.  Result:  Nobody knows what to do.  Just tonight I got a call from another ex-pat friend here who had to exit the country because he needed a new registration (never had to do that before!).  He almost didn't get back in the country because the border guard didn't realize that his current visa was issued before the new rules on business visas came into effect.  My friend went back to Estonia, sat in a coffee shop for 5 hours until shift change, went back to Russia and had no problem reentering the country.

How am I -or anyone- supposed to keep up with the law when those that are charged with it's enforcement don't know what's going on.

W/R/T just paying the bribe providing a gift:  A few years ago it was a simple matter to do this;  a bottle of vodka, or a nice box of chocolates went a very long way toward getting things done.  Today things are significantly more complicated and such simple gifts won't do.  Now they want expensive telephones and furs.

I have tried to suppress my American attitudes and thinking while I'm in Russia.  When in Rome, and all that...  I've lost count of how many times I choked back the words "That's not how we do it in the U.S." out of respect for my adopted home and it's people. 

Unless you are here it's really hard to describe the feeling in the air. Now it is one of resignation.   When I got here almost 6 years ago the feeling of possibility and freedom was such as I had never felt even in the U.S.  They were figuring it out as they went along, and it was my hope that they might take a page or two from more advanced countries to speed them on the way to being a first-world country.

That was my critical error.  I severely under estimated just how reluctant Russians are to change, and how they would react if someone offered them help.  I failed to realize that to a Russian, asking for help is a sign of weakness and no Russian wishes to appear weak.

[Shadow]

Who knows some day I might try the same. Although Mila would prefer to go to the USA where things are less complicated and the weather is better (except for the occasional hurricane).
The last time I was in Russia I experienced the same sensation as you six years ago. And from what I hear the Russian people still experience the same. However I understand the trouble that the system can cause including the dullness.
However where else can you own an apartment and a telephone line offcially, yet not have your name in the papers. Only in Russia.
Where else will the border guard not tell the next shift about that guy that might come back. Only in Russia.
And nowhere else can you find good vodka. 

[Phil dAmore]

And nowhere else can you find good vodka.

 

That's another reason I stay here.  Well, that and I really enjoy looking at all the pretty women....

[Mishenka]

Would you believe what Pepsi writes about Coca Cola ?

Shadow,, I don't drink pepsi products or coke.  Yuck,, TO MUCH SUGAR - part of the reason I've lost 35 pounds this year. :-)

[wxman]

wxman,  the oil shale has been out there for years. I remember my grandfather maybe 35 years ago being told that the land he owned would soon be worth millions because it had large deposits of oil shale on it.  I think though, at the time the costs of production were higher than the price of oil produced, but at nearly $100 a barrel now, that shouldn't be the case.  Actually, if the US were allowed to drill in all of those areas blocked by environmentalist groups, we could be self sufficient now.  If you ever want to do an interesting study, look at who is providing financial support for these environmental groups.  Would it surprise you if the trail led to Saudi Arabia and Russia?  You think they will stand still and let oil shale take away their profits as well?  Just watch and wait.

Scott,

I would not be surprised at all if the trail led back to Russian and Saudi oil. It also would not surprise be if the Russian oil companies started buying up big chunks of land in the US, thus controlling the oil shale market. It's already happened in the mining industry. Norilsk Mining which produces most of the world's palladium and nickel, has bought up several western mines in the US including Stillwater mining which is the only US mine that produces palladium and platinum. Pretty much went unnoticed and this could happen with the oil shale.

[Misha]

Scott,
It also would not surprise be if the Russian oil companies started buying up big chunks of land in the US, thus controlling the oil shale market.

I doubt it. One of the biggest deposits is the Green River Basin, most of which is in Colorado, and this one deposit covers one thousand or so square miles. Most of the oil shale in the United States, from what I gather, is under the control of the U.S. Federal Government. The challenge is developing technology to extract it. Before it was dug up and heated to extract the oil. Now, new technologies are emerging to heat the shale in the ground which then allows the oil to be pumped out in a few years.

[wxman]

The US government has been known to lease off large chunks of federal land to the highest bidder. Most federal lands are not closed off as parks or reserves and thus can be leased for mining, logging etc. Perhaps I should not have said bought out by the Russian oil companies, but they can lease the land, and lease large tracks of it. They buy an American company which in turn leases the land long term from the US government. These leases are usually written which are highly favorable for the companies and not the government. Of course my rant has nothing to do with the topic of this thread. Doh! 

[Misha]

The US government has been known to lease off large chunks of federal land to the highest bidder. Most federal lands are not closed off as parks or reserves and thus can be leased for mining, logging etc. Perhaps I should not have said bought out by the Russian oil companies, but they can lease the land, and lease large tracks of it. They buy an American company which in turn leases the land from the US government.

From what I have been reading, the main problem with oil shale is that it requires an enormous amount of energy to extract the oil and you do not get much crude oil in return. There is a lot there, but if you have to build coal or nuclear powered plants to generate the electricity to extract a relatively small output of oil (compared to conventional oil sources or oil sands), you might as well use the energy produced by the coal or nuclear plants directly and not bother with the oil shale.

[timothe]

With cold war weapons laid aside, the battle has shifted to economics - and it seems that it is a battle that is being won by Communists.. LOL

I remember not so long ago China was being bashed for keeping the value of their currency low.. and now we see the USD sliding to record lows against other currencies in an attempt to fix internal and external aliments.

The Chinese are probably laughing their butts off.. who would have thought that manufacturing salad shooters would suck the US economy quite dry.

I'm quite sure RU is taking notes.

I don't think so.  The Russian people see China's economic growth as their "Great White Hope" but China's growth is the result of a combination of foreign investment and the exploitation of largest cheap labor force in the world. (in part, by foriegn investment)  However, the economic success comes with a price because now all Chinese want prosperity and their already overcrowded cities are about to get a whole lot more overcrowded.  

The dollar's decline in value can be reversed by the Fed very easily.  The Fed keeps the dollar's value low partially as a check against China's economic power.  Neither China nor India nor the European Union can afford the consequences of a vastly devalued American dollar.  Like it or not, the US still drives the bus of the world economy and the continued prosperity of the US ensures the continued prosperity of these emerging markets as well.  They are interdependent, you might say.  

The notion of the Chinese "laughing their butts off" at the weak dollar is silly, rabbit.  

[BillyB]

Phil, I enjoy hearing about your Russian experiences, although not always happy, told in this thread and when I met you in St. Petersburg. I especially remember you telling me that the Russian people will stumble every evening to reach the door of their apartment cursing the darkness they walk through. The same people everyday cursing yet nobody will change the lightbulb to see where they're going and make their life a little easier.

Historically the dollar as with many currencies fall or rise at any given time for various reasons, some within our control and some out of our control. The Canadian dollar recently surpassed the American dollar in value but it was done 30 years ago so it's not the first time and nothing to be alarmed about. Make no mistake, in the World economy, if America coughs, the World gets sick.

[Gator]

The World Economic Forum is an independent not-for-profit agency, based in Geneva, and somehow under the supervision of  the Swiss government.  Its findings should be reputable.

http://www.weforum.org/en/index.htm

Each year it reports an analysis of the relative competitiveness of different countries, based largely on survey of 11,000 global business leaders.  The number of countries surveyed numbers 131 and includes such dynamic centers of business places as Chad.

Russia ranked 58th.  Yet was near the top in several categories such as global market and government debt (and No. 1 with regard to malaria    ).

What factors lowered Russia's ranking?

Here are many problematic areas in the category of Institutions, which everyone discussed above. Russia's worst rankings (where 131 would be the worst in the world, and just think about the other countries that would be included):

Protection of minority shareholders’ interests  125 
Property rights  122 
Ethical behavior of firms  120 
Burden of government regulation  118 
Transparency of government policymaking  118 
Intellectual property protection  115 
Reliability of police services  111 
Business costs of terrorism  108 
Favoritism in decisions of government officials  107 
Efficiency of legal framework  106 
Judicial independence  106 
Public trust of politicians  104 
Organized crime  103 
Wastefulness of government spending  100

There many other categories.  Other interesting rankings:

HIV prevalence (hard data)  100 
Life expectancy (hard data)  96

Higher education enrollment (hard data)  14 
Quality of math and science education  38 
Quality of the educational system  46

Restriction on capital flows  118 
Soundness of banks  108 
Regulation of securities exchanges  103


Extent of staff training  96

Non-wage labor costs (hard data)  107 
Rigidity of employment (hard data)  79

Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy  106 
Prevalence of trade barriers  104

Quality of roads  106

[Phil dAmore]

Each year it reports an analysis of the relative competitiveness of different countries,

Russians don't know how to compete.  However they are exceedingly good at control.  Witness this latest installment of how Russia is trying to strong arm Lufthansa into using a Russian airport for it's cargo hub:

AFP reports a classic example of how Russian "think" -- like the mafia. Russia wants the German airline Lufthansa to use a Russian airport instead of one in Kazakhstan as its Asian hub. But instead of making a sales pitch, improving the target facility to make it more attractive and finding out about Lufthansa's needs and satisfying them, Russia simply takes out a gun. It tells Lufthansa that it can't use Russian airspace to access the hub in Kazakhstan, vastly increasing the carrier's fuel and time costs. We've seen exactly the same thing in regard to Russia's inflation crisis: the crude Russian thug thinks he can "solve" the problem by brute force, simply telling producers they can't raise prices. Childish, self-destructive lunacy. Classic Russia.

Russia is trying to force the German airline Lufthansa to move its Asian cargo hub from Kazakstan to Siberia, the Financial Times Deutschland reported Friday after cargo flights were banned from Russian airspace. "We wrote to our German colleagues on October 22, proposing that they use Krasnoyarsk in Siberia as a future hub," Russian transport ministry spokesman Timur Chikmatov told the newspaper. Lufthansa Cargo, one of the world's biggest air cargo carriers, now uses Astana, Kazakhstan as its base for Asian services, but was barred from entering Russian airspace on Sunday, adding several hours to flights headed there. "The Russian government would like to see our hub in Siberia," a Lufthansa Cargo spokesman told AFP, adding that Novosibirsk was another airport that had been suggested. The detours have increased the carrier's fuel costs by about 400,000 dollars (280,000 euros) per week, and Lufthansa warned its profits could be affected. Talks between Germany and Russia have begun on the issue, and the airline spokesman said: "We are waiting for politicians to find a solution." But the government has also said it could turn to the European Union for help if nothing is worked out soon. German press reports had said previously that the dispute centered over new overflight tariffs that had taken effect with a winter schedule on Sunday. According to the Financial Times report, Lufthansa Cargo also has doubts about safety at Siberian airfields. Krasnoyarsk, which lies around 1,500 kilometers (940 miles) to the east of Astana, reportedly lacks guides for fog-bound landings, the newspaper said. A Lufthansa spokesman told the online edition of Der Spiegel magazine: "Russia's ban is causing us huge losses, because it means that we have to reroute flights to Japan, China, North Korea and Singapore. It takes a lot longer and costs a lot of money." The German transport ministry spokesman said Thursday: "We would like to know if other countries have problems, and if necessary we will go to the European Union."[/i]

Source:http://russophobe.blogspot.com/2007/11/how-russians-think.html

[Mir]

I don't know what is the real significance of such rankings but it is interesting to note that Russia performs better the Ukraine (West's current favourite FSU country), Romania and Bulgaria (recent EU members), and Greece.

Perhaps it will be easier for Russia to join EU soon, if they want to.