Russia is at it again!

[Ronnie]

Ronnie,

Just following suit..

Yes, we both shall see what happens in the end and will have to accept our fate.

Taxing -naaaaaa....

You make me chuckle.  I do enjoy discourse with you as you indeed present an interesting challenge.

All the above said in the most friendly of manners.

BC, it's more fun if we avoid trying to use a presumed moral equivalent to immoral actions.  Every situation is different and we don't need to argue about how they are different.  I hope you not found me falling into this rut of using presumed moral equivalents.  If I every do, I tell you now, it means i have no good arguments. 

[BC]

BC, it's more fun if we avoid trying to use a presumed moral equivalent to immoral actions.  Every situation is different and we don't need to argue about how they are different.  I hope you not found me falling into this rut of using presumed moral equivalents.  If I every do, I tell you now, it means i have no good arguments. 

I think it is applying moral standards that gets us into trouble in the first place.  I do not think morals are universally equal, instead being formed individually by social groups.  That's maybe why I tend to concentrate my views on actions / results instead.

Who am I to judge that the actions of cannibals deep in a jungle, doing 'their thing' for thousands of years is immoral..  Should we all of a sudden go arrest them all, destroying their culture?

Yes an extreme example..

Probably the only bad thing I see regarding ways of the old SU was that their citizens were not given a choice to go elsewhere should they decide to do so.  Today, RU citizens are not deprived of this most fundamental freedom so I must first learn to deal with RU as they are and not force my ways of thinking upon them.

The best that can be done is to set an example to follow, and that my friend is something I do not see happening.

[Misha]

I think it is applying moral standards that gets us into trouble in the first place.  I do not think morals are universally equal, instead being formed individually by social groups.  That's maybe why I tend to concentrate my views on actions / results instead.

Who am I to judge that the actions of cannibals deep in a jungle, doing 'their thing' for thousands of years is immoral..  Should we all of a sudden go arrest them all, destroying their culture?

I am not too sure what your point is here. The fact of the matter is that Russia has an imperial history whereby it conquered neighboring peoples and many times did its best to destroy their culture. The fact of the matter is that Russia did promise to respect the territorial integrity of Georgia by signing onto UN resolutions. They therefore agreed to abide by international standards. For these reasons, I have no qualms criticizing the actions of the Russian state.

I also have no objections as to criticizing the actions of the Russian State within Russia. I am a firm believer in human rights and as a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, Russia has agreed to abide by international standards when it comes to human rights. For all these reasons, trying to make a parallel with "cannibals deep in the jungle" is misleading. Yes, Russia has a right to its culture, but it also has an obligation to respect some international norms.

Probably the only bad thing I see regarding ways of the old SU was that their citizens were not given a choice to go elsewhere should they decide to do so.  Today, RU citizens are not deprived of this most fundamental freedom so I must first learn to deal with RU as they are and not force my ways of thinking upon them.

Well, I guess that Russians do have the right to become refugees if they manage to get out of the state. Tens of thousands have left Russia in this way claiming status as political refugees.

The best that can be done is to set an example to follow, and that my friend is something I do not see happening.

I don't agree with this passive stance. Much can be done to promote human rights. The first step is to recognize the problem that exists within Russia.

[BC]

I am not too sure what your point is here. The fact of the matter is that Russia has an imperial history whereby it conquered neighboring peoples and many times did its best to destroy their culture. The fact of the matter is that Russia did promise to respect the territorial integrity of Georgia by signing onto UN resolutions. They therefore agreed to abide by international standards. For these reasons, I have no qualms criticizing the actions of the Russian state.

Yes, critique is always good.  Won't guarantee that they will accept it though.

I also have no objections as to criticizing the actions of the Russian State within Russia. I am a firm believer in human rights and as a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council, Russia has agreed to abide by international standards when it comes to human rights. For all these reasons, trying to make a parallel with "cannibals deep in the jungle" is misleading. Yes, Russia has a right to its culture, but it also has an obligation to respect some international norms.

Yes, I believe practically every country, even those that have signed up have reports of violations, US included.  This delves into the 'moral issue' I mentioned above where a country can override these rights by stating there was some overriding moral obligation not to respect them.

Well, I guess that Russians do have the right to become refugees if they manage to get out of the state. Tens of thousands have left Russia in this way claiming status as political refugees.

Do folks in RU need permission today to leave the country when they want to?

I don't agree with this passive stance. Much can be done to promote human rights. The first step is to recognize the problem that exists within Russia.

I don't think any country is free of HR violations and certainly there are those with records much worse records RU. Like pulling weeds, have to get all the roots. It can be quite tough and require a lot of resources to get that last little bit.  The same resources and efforts used in other countries would achieve a lot more.

Lets face it we are 'fixated' on RU at the moment.

From Human Rights Watch Report 2008

The misuse of the democratic name is not entirely new. The one-time German Democratic Republic (the name of the now-defunct one-party Communist state in East Germany) or today’s Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (the improbable, official name of North Korea) are prime examples. But few gave any credence to these Orwellian claims. The sad new development is how easy it has become for today’s autocrats to get away with mounting a democratic facade.

It is not that pseudo-democratic leaders gain much legitimacy at home. The local population knows all too bitterly what a farce the elections really are. At best, these leaders gain the benefit of feigned compliance with local laws requiring elections. Rather, a good part of the motivation today behind this democratic veneer stems from the international legitimacy that an electoral exercise, however empty, can win for even the most hardened dictator. Because of other interests—energy, commerce, counterterrorism—the world’s more established democracies too often find it convenient to appear credulous of these sham democrats.

Foremost has been the United States under President George W. Bush. In a troubling parallel to abusive governments around the world, the US government has embraced democracy promotion as a softer and fuzzier alternative to defending human rights. Democracy is a metric by which the United States still measures up fairly well, but human rights are a standard by which the record of the Bush administration is deeply troubling. Talk of human rights leads to Guantanamo, secret CIA prisons, waterboarding, rendition, military commissions, and the suspension of habeas corpus. Despite the 2000 presidential elections, discussion of democracy takes place on a more comfortable terrain.

http://hrw.org/wr2k8/introduction/index.htm

[Misha]

Yes, critique is always good.  Won't guarantee that they will accept it though.

Well, in many ways, Russia is not paying for it at the moment. The Russian stock markets fell again and the ruble is dropping as money is leaving the country. There are measures that can be taken to pressure Russia into doing the right thing.

Do folks in RU need permission today to leave the country when they want to?

They can be stopped from leaving on a number of legal grounds. They also have to return to their country unless they: 1) emigrate 2) become refugees 3) become illegal migrants.

Great many Russians are choosing these three options, including becoming refugees living outside of Russia.

I don't think any country is free of HR violations and certainly there are those with records much worse records RU. Like pulling weeds, have to get all the roots. It can be quite tough and require a lot of resources to get that last little bit.  The same resources and efforts used in other countries would achieve a lot more.

Lets face it we are 'fixated' on RU at the moment.

Well, this is a site that is fixated on Russia. If you want to suggest another site, we can chat about China or the United States or some other country. However, the easiest excuse will always be that there are worse offenders. But, since when is this a legitimate defense? Could I rob a bank and claim that I should not be punished because others have stolen more than I have? Of course not. So why should Russia get a pass based on a claim that there are other countries with worse human rights violations.

[Shadow]

Misha, this is a site duscussing the FSU. That is more than just Russia, about which is this topic.

Ok you want to hear a really off-beat theory ? Listen to MrsShadow.

The past in Ukraine is well-known regarding the Orange revolution. However the three prime person in Ukraine, Yushenko, Yanukovic and Timoshenko all have ties with Moscow. Ukraine has, after the Orange revolution, received a lot of aid, but also has paid a substantial higher price for gas. One might say that a good part of the Western fund have gone to Russia by virtue of the gas prices.

Currently the US has already promised a huge amount of money for help to Georgia for 'rebuilding'. There are rumours that Saakashvili, who had endured recent criticism in his ways of silencing the opposition, is actually a former FSB operative, and could still have well-hidden Moscow connections. One might see agreements soon by which more US money will float to Russia.

Politics is a dirty game, and as people in government are generally far from the man in the street, it is played on a very different level.

[BC]

Well, in many ways, Russia is not paying for it at the moment. The Russian stock markets fell again and the ruble is dropping as money is leaving the country. There are measures that can be taken to pressure Russia into doing the right thing.

Then I wonder what the US did to deserve the market and housing crash..

They can be stopped from leaving on a number of legal grounds. They also have to return to their country unless they: 1) emigrate 2) become refugees 3) become illegal migrants.

Sounds quite normal for most countries.. That's why there are usually exit customs booths when leaving the country..

Great many Russians are choosing these three options, including becoming refugees living outside of Russia.

This is certainly incentive for RU to develop programs that will retain their population.  Most I met seemed quite happy where they were so we're not talking mass exodus.

Well, this is a site that is fixated on Russia. If you want to suggest another site, we can chat about China or the United States or some other country. However, the easiest excuse will always be that there are worse offenders. But, since when is this a legitimate defense? Could I rob a bank and claim that I should not be punished because others have stolen more than I have? Of course not. So why should Russia get a pass based on a claim that there are other countries with worse human rights violations.

That's just the way it is.. Governments hold their citizens responsible, but the other way around is pretty difficult.  Lets make it a law that elected presidents must maintain their campaign promises, or be cited for fraud.

[Misha]

Then I wonder what the US did to deserve the market and housing crash..

Has the American stock market lost roughly a third of its value in three months?

Sounds quite normal for most countries.. That's why there are usually exit customs booths when leaving the country..

Well, when I left the United States after traveling there this summer, there was not American exit custom booth, but perhaps it is the exception.

That's just the way it is.. Governments hold their citizens responsible, but the other way around is pretty difficult.  Lets make it a law that elected presidents must maintain their campaign promises, or be cited for fraud.

Again, you are avoiding the issue. We are not talking about campaign promises as to building roads or taxes, we are talking about states respecting human rights.

[BC]

Has the American stock market lost roughly a third of its value in three months?

I don't monitor it that close, but you are probably correct that it took a bit longer than 3 months to loose 30%.  Stocks and currency go up and down, up and down depending on many factors, political included.  Think they call such speculative course corrections.  I don't think they will cause any bank failures though.  Investors put money where it gains the most, even for seconds.. obviously they found something better for the moment.

Well, when I left the United States after traveling there this summer, there was not American exit custom booth, but perhaps it is the exception.

Whether checks are done in a physical manner or not, I would think that the US has the power to stop anyone leaving the country without cause, even moreso now than many years ago.  Was it the 'Patriot Act' that allows such, or the super secret Presidential order?

Again, you are avoiding the issue. We are not talking about campaign promises as to building roads or taxes, we are talking about states respecting human rights.

I'm not avoiding anything, just trying to point out that in relative terms the problem per se is not that huge.  After all, we are all expendable.

I can only judge from my experience.  I entered RU, did what I needed to do several times and left without a hitch - even had my laptop with me.

I used to have a sign in my office when I had a bunch of employees.. -it said something like 'Don't bring me problems as I have enough of them myself.  Bring me a solution though and I'm all ear.'

What's the solution?

[SANDRO43]

Bring me a solution though and I'm all ear.

Right or left ? Careful with your answer, it may reveal hitherto undisclosed political leanings .

[Ronnie]

I think it is applying moral standards that gets us into trouble in the first place.  I do not think morals are universally equal, instead being formed individually by social groups.  That's maybe why I tend to concentrate my views on actions / results instead.

Who am I to judge that the actions of cannibals deep in a jungle, doing 'their thing' for thousands of years is immoral..  Should we all of a sudden go arrest them all, destroying their culture?

Yes an extreme example..

Probably the only bad thing I see regarding ways of the old SU was that their citizens were not given a choice to go elsewhere should they decide to do so.  Today, RU citizens are not deprived of this most fundamental freedom so I must first learn to deal with RU as they are and not force my ways of thinking upon them.

The best that can be done is to set an example to follow, and that my friend is something I do not see happening.

"What we have here is a failure to communicate"

A moral equivalent is not at all the same as a moral standard.  Look it up.

[BC]

"What we have here is a failure to communicate"

A moral equivalent is not at all the same as a moral standard.  Look it up.

Ronnie,

Yes, I misread. I'll take that squarely on the chin and chock it up as my lesson of the day.

Thanks

[Misha]

I don't monitor it that close, but you are probably correct that it took a bit longer than 3 months to loose 30%.  Stocks and currency go up and down, up and down depending on many factors, political included.  Think they call such speculative course corrections.  I don't think they will cause any bank failures though.  Investors put money where it gains the most, even for seconds.. obviously they found something better for the moment.

The correction is continuing: the RTS dropped down as low as 1407 yesterday. It closed at 1469.15.

[chivo]

Has the American stock market lost roughly a third of its value in three months?

You're kidding right?

Does 1929 ring a bell? How about 1987? It lost 23% in 1 day.

From the crash of 1987:
The Crash was the greatest single-day loss that Wall Street had ever suffered in continuous trading up to that point. Between the start of trading on October 14th to the close on October 19, the DJIA lost 760 points, a decline of over 31 percent.

chivo

[Misha]

You're kidding right?

Does 1929 ring a bell? How about 1987? It lost 23% in 1 day.

From the crash of 1987:
The Crash was the greatest single-day loss that Wall Street had ever suffered in continuous trading up to that point. Between the start of trading on October 14th to the close on October 19, the DJIA lost 760 points, a decline of over 31 percent.

chivo

Well, the 1929 stock market crash was followed by the Depression.

As for 1987, the greatest singles loss on October 14th was followed by the greatest ever rally the next day. In two days, the market recovered all that it had lost.

What I meant when asking whether the United States had lost 30 per cent of its value in three months, was whether it had lost 30% of its value in the last three months and not whether it had lost 30 per cent of its value ever. But, you are right in that the market has lost a great deal in a short period and it either recovered very quickly or as was the case in 1929, the stock market crash was the sign of systemic problems that led to a collapse in the economy. So far, the Russian stock market is continuing downwards.

[chivo]

Well, the 1929 stock market crash was followed by the Depression.

As for 1987, the greatest singles loss on October 14th was followed by the greatest ever rally the next day. In two days, the market recovered all that it had lost.

Yes it did make a nice recovery the following 2 days (actually recovering only 280 points of the 760 it lost), but didn't get back to its original level before the crash for almost 2 years. 

What I meant when asking whether the United States had lost 30 per cent of its value in three months, was whether it had lost 30% of its value in the last three months and not whether it had lost 30 per cent of its value ever. But, you are right in that the market has lost a great deal in a short period and it either recovered very quickly or as was the case in 1929, the stock market crash was the sign of systemic problems that led to a collapse in the economy. So far, the Russian stock market is continuing downwards.

Well, Russia does have a certain reputation. From what I gather here, most think things will stabilize over time, and the ruble will land somewhere between 24-24.5.

Let's see what happens before automatically thinking the worse is/was more to my point. I think it's way too soon to say that everybody is ready to jump ship, or that the economy in Russia is doomed. They did learn some lessons from the past and you won't see a repeat of 1998. Good luck.

chivo

[Misha]

Let's see what happens before automatically thinking the worse is/was more to my point. I think it's way too soon to say that everybody is ready to jump ship, or that the economy in Russia is doomed. They did learn some lessons from the past and you won't see a repeat of 1998. Good luck.

chivo

Well, what helps is that Russia has accumulated a large reserve of foreign cash (which they have used to brace the ruble). This will certainly  help in the comings months and years. However, the main challenge will come from the fall in oil prices. The Russian state structure has become quite bloated with civil servants and new spending projects (with money disappearing in the black hole that is corruption). When oil prices go down, this means less money for the Russian state, and the real possibility of deficits which will eat into their foreign currency reserve.

[BC]

Ronnie,

Yes, I misread. I'll take that squarely on the chin and chock it up as my lesson of the day.

Thanks

I will say though that there will come a time (and soon) where 'moral equivalent' will be overridden by 'preponderance of evidence'.

[Mishenka]

Below is a list of aid that the USA has been giving Russia. Because of the war with Georgia, this aid has now ended. This is just one example of economic loss in Russia, there have also been cuts of aid from other EU countries.  Putin is setting up shop in Venezuela now sending ships and planes to build a base with Chavez, working with Cuba to do the same. Things are going to get a Little rough again.

U.S. assistance to Russia from 1992-2007:

In Fiscal Year 1992 total United States Government (USG) assistance was 328.42 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 1993: Total USG: 1,454.75 Million dollars; means 1,5 billion
Fiscal Year 1994: Total USG: 1,915.79 Million dollars; nearly 2 billion
Fiscal Year 1995: Total USG: 570.26 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 1996: Total USG: 492.86 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 1997: Total USG: 545.52 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 1998: Total USG: 599.04 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 1999: Total USG: 2,132.47 Million dollars; over 2 billion
Fiscal Year 2000: Total USG: 1,053.99 Million dollars; over 1 billion
Fiscal Year 2001: Total USG: 955.52 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2002: Total USG: 1,014.54 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2003: Total USG: 912.50 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2004: Total USG: 944.67 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2005: Total USG: 1,008.06 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2006: Total USG: 961.65 Million dollars;
Fiscal Year 2007: Total USG: 913.28 Million.
(Source: US State Department)
   
16 billion USD we have in foreign aid given freely to Russia has now been shut off.

Also because of this conflict,  Russia could be removed from the G8. If McCain wins our election, this will become a reality. Russia will not be able to join the World Trade Organization The US has now ended all investment in space station MIR, The deal between USA and Russia for nuclear waste storage will not happen. Loss to Russia will be in the billions of dollars. The Russian ruble Has fallen by 10%-15% in value in the last 2 weeks as Investors have pulled over 20 billion out of Russian banks.The EU has had meetings in agreement against this conflict, and could choose to buy their gas and oil from other countries, and end the purchase of the 33% of Russian oil and natural gas and other product imports. If there is less demand for Russian oil, the prices will drop and Russia looses a huge amount of income. I don't believe the UN will place any sanctions on Russia. There will be a financial collapse because investors are pulling out of Russia. The result of Putin's actions, will isolate Russia more and they could loose half of their international export trade, the ruble will fall even more in value and prices in Russia will sky rocket. Russia has lost many arms sales, contracts have been canceled by countries over seas.  The USA has 300 of our largest companies opperating in Russia. IF and when they pull out, there will be another large loss of jobs, tax income and trade in both directions.   

USA has pledged to Give Georgia  USD $537 milllion this year, part of a total package of 1 billion over time to rebuild homes for the people, hospitals and schools, to feed and clothe these people who are left with nothing.  NONE of this money will be spent on military.  USA and UK have troops guarding the 4 oil pipe lines that run through Georgia. Putin will not be able to acquire this oil or natural gas from Georgia as he hoped to do.  Putin has miscalculated the outcome of war with Georgia, He has very little International support world wide(Cuba  Venezuela). Depending on what steps Putin takes, it will be easy to predict another collapse of Russia's economy over the next year or two.  They import much more from China than they export to them.

Life is about to get very interesting,
Mishenka

[Makkin]

Hello,

  10-15% drop of the Ruble to the dollar is questionable as I study these numbers daily and I believe strongly it's about 4% drop. Since Ukraine and Russia both tend to be somewhat parabolic towards and with the dollar I see that monetary note more stabe than the Euro or pound.
   The Brits have fallen more but the Euro will probably really fall(opinion). When Europe figures out the share options for Fanny and Freddie will soon be nothing then the stock market will fall again. Since the US bailout it only makes commerce safe and also disolves the shares (I would not buy a share at 10 cents each) it means the shareholders in Europe and other places will lose and big companies will win.
   I see the economics to be stable for Russia for two to three years due to the slow down in Europe. No credit crunch in Russia right?
   Until Europe solves it problems along with the USA there seems to be no real reason to point a finger at the Russian economy because it's not exactly easy to point in any direction at this point until and after the credit crunches of the globe are solved.

Makkin

[Mishenka]

Some interesting info,
In May 2008 I was getting 22 Ru for 1 dollar, today I can get nearly 26, tomorrow? who knows.  4 RU more to my USD is close to 12% drop in value.  I can get more on the street.  It fell in a matter of 2 weeks, all currency has fallen compared with USD, especially the Euro at 1.40 is down from the 1.65 high. I agree the Euro will fall more.

My post was about Putins military plan today and his dream to bring back old USSR tomorrow, and what he will suffer for implementing them. Venezuela is not paying Russia to build a military base there, neither is Cuba or Viet Nam, this will cost Russia millions they may not have. Cold War or not, Russia can not compete with the West when their GDP and military budget is a fraction of USA and EU.  Putin was premature and arrogant for miscalculating his coup of Georgia. He is even more arrogant to think he can install military bases in Cuba, and Venezuela (sending ships and planes today) without suffering dire consequences. Russia is still very much a third world country, still very much communist, still lightyears behind USA in technology. What is this man thinking? China is not going to bail him out. They stand to much to loose. If USA ended trade with China with their population,  their economy would collapse in a few months time. Loosing all those trillions of USD we spend with China each year would kill their economy. They have to many mouths to feed. This world economy depends to much on every country getting along well.  Can you imagine the total insanity, if we don't? You can't just stop world trade at this point in the game. USA has a $14 Trillion annual GDP 2007,  I think at last count Russia was $1.7. While this is impressive coming from total collapse, in comparison, its small.
California GDP 2007 was over $2 Trillion, putting it at the 7 largest economy in the world ahead of Germany and France, (if  CA were a country)

Here is a link to the new satellite USA launched that has camera's that can focus clearly on any object 40 mm in diameter, approx 16 inches, watching every move that is made.  It circles the globe 14 times per day at 17,000 mph shooting millions of  images and sending back to our military in real time. Click on the video to see it work. Very interesting This technology is how we sent the message to Georgia that 150 Russian tanks were on their way hours before it happend, This is also how we disconnected them from the internet and communications were down during the invasion. Satellite photos here are so clear it's amazing. check out Iraq, Iran, different ports, real estate, very cool.

http://launch.geoeye.com/LaunchSite/

[Jooky]

In May 2008 I was getting 22 Ru for 1 dollar.

Considering the exchange rate never dropped below 23.5 rubles to the dollar in May, you got ripped off.

The actual exchange rate since May has risen from 23.5 to 25.5 rubles to the dollar.  More rubles to the dollar is great news for me, but so far there's been an recent increase of 2 rubles to the dollar, not 4.

Russia is still very much a third world country, still very much communist, still lightyears behind USA in technology.

Russia was never a third world country. The Soviet Union was second world. What technology is Russia lacking?

I was in Russia during the recent events in Georgia. I'll throw in a few observations.

Everyone I know in Russia was aware not only of the Russian government's portrayal of these events, but the European and American portrayals and reactions as well. Most everyone I know in America has seen only one view point fed to them by the American media.

Whatever views you subscribe to, whether Georgia's actions were a crack down or genocide and whether 100 or 2000 civilians were killed, the following seems to be true:

When I was first heard of the attack on Tskhinvali the general opinion I heard in Russia was that the Saakashvili was creating a situation to form closer ties to the US and garner the US support in Georgia'.s bid to join NATO. So far this is proving to be true.

The counter argument was that Putin had created this situation in order to take over Georgia and control its oil. So far this is proving to be false.

The Georgian military struck first, attacking civilians in a territory. The Russian army was prepared and reacted.

The Georgian military deliberately targeted civilians. This was clear in footage shown on Russian television but not aired in the US. This was confirmed in the Human Rights Watch article linked to above.

The Georgian government blocked access to Russian news and websites so that Georgian citizens would be fed only the Georgian approved version of the current events. Western democracy at work.

If South Ossetians want independence from Georgia, so be it. If there were no oil pipelines involved there would be no US involved. What really bothers me is that my country is supporting a leader who initiated deliberate attacks on civilians and censors its media.

[Misha]

The counter argument was that Putin had created this situation in order to take over Georgia and control its oil. So far this is proving to be false.

Well, Georgia does not really have any oil as far as I know or if it has any it is pretty insignificant. What Georgia did provide was a route for oil and gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe bypassing Russia (i.e. it was one of the countries that the Nabucco pipeline was supposed to  cross). Now, because of recent events, Nabucco is dead in the water, and the Central Asian countries such as Azerbaijan will have to ship their oil/natural gas through either Russia or Iran. From this perspective, Russia was successful: it did not have to invade the country, just make it too risky for more pipelines to be built that it could not control.

[kievstar]

Russia also controls most of the former area of Georgia with troops being based in each of the two regions.  Putin knew EU would back down.  In the end USA and Russia got what they wanted.  USA has Poland and Czech Republic closer to them and Russia has more control over oil / gas to Europe.

Europe and Georgia are the losers in this so far.  Who knows what will happen in Ukraine with the political and economic mess they have. Russia should turn there gas off again this year to show Ukraine who really is boss. 

[Makkin]

  What should happen when the credit crisis is solved..if....lol???

   The norms of global business will return to regular motion as far as we can tell. Getting past the Euro's fall and the inflation factors of western europe are key.

   The Ruble is hooked to the dollar if you look close and so is Ukraines economy. Since they are not in the EU and don't depend on that currencey then it makes sense they will recover at a quicker pace than western Europe.

Makkin