Economy situation in Ukraine

[emc]

Two-hundred bucks a month! :whirling:   That's a good salary?!  I can't imagine what you'd call a poor salary.

emc - those are my initials!

Do not try to imagine ))) that's not possible ))) but we are Ok with it ))) and we believe sooner or later everything will be at least as it was )

[kievstar]

China cannot dump USA currency.  Remember the USA and China are in bed together with manufacturing.  Walmart if it were a separate country is the 4th or 5th biggets trading country with China right now.  Add in Walmart's suppliers and it is #1 or #2.  Would be the kiss of death for China.  Also, what happens if the USA currency gets weak.  USA does not buy foreign goods.  Look what happened last year.  Whether the World likes it or not they need a strong USA dollar right now.  When the dollar gets weak the World falls apart.

There are many big Ukraine run banks in Ukraine.  Do not think there all foreign.  If they were, Ukraine government would have not given them billions of dollars.  You could have gotten 11% interest income on USA denominated debt last May and 20% on Ukraine denominated debt.  I had a lot of people in my ear telling me how stupid  I was not taking debt out in Ukraine dollars when currency was 5 to 1 the previous 3 years.  Paying 20% and it dropped to 4.5 to 1.  Same people have 7.5 / 8 to 1 now and cannot sell as contract is binding for the term they took out.  Also, the amount they get paid is less than 5% now as it is tied to certain financial indicators. High level of default to.

My wife used to be a nurse several years ago and made around $100 usd as well.  She switched to something that paid around $300 usd a month for 50 plus hour work weeks.  This is one of the reasons the retirement home business is a gold mine in Ukraine.


USA economy is doing well right now as companies are struggling to find quality workers.  Yes the unemployment is 9% but there are millions of jobs people are struggling to fill.  10% unemployment is healthy. Keeps workers from getting to lazy.

[Ravens9273]

One thing I see not mentioned  I wanted to bring up. Although it is bad enough that pay was so little in Ukraine (my wife working 67 hours for $90) What was even worse is half the time she was not even paid. Companies are famous for stiffing employees on pay. Many will then tell the worker if they do not like it then find another job. With jobs being hard to find many would continue to work even without pay just for the hope maybe they would. They felt the 50/50 shot on getting paid was better then no job at all.

[ECOCKS]

As if things were not already bad enough, here's a little government action to "help"...

Temporary suspension of activities of casino enterprises operating in Ukraine 

Pursuant to the regulation of Ukrainian minister of finance, licenses of all
the casino enterprises that are operating in Ukraine are suspended in order to
carry out inspections.

The regulation of the minister of finance is subject to the recent events that
resulted in casualties due to the fire in one of the OEG competitors' gaming
facilities located in Dnepropetrovsk. OEG finds the suspension of casino
licences illegal and disproportionate. According to OEG, Ukrainian casinos of
OEG do not violate any safety requirements.

In addition, today the Ukrainian parliament passed a law suspending the
activities of all the gaming enterprises in Ukraine. Ukrainian government will
be given an order to develop a new Gambling Act within three months. The law,
which suspends the activities of gaming enterprises, must be approved by the
Ukrainian president. According to OEG, the above-mentioned law violates several
other laws and hopefully the president will not approve it. OEG believes that
the parliament's decision is directly related to the increased political
struggle before the elections. There have recently been several cases in
Ukraine where the orders of the government that regulate the gaming sector have
been annulled by the president the next day and hopefully the justice will be
done also this time.

As of today, the casinos of the Ukrainian subsidiary of OEG are closed and
their employees have been sent on holiday without pay. OEG is doing everything
possible to open its casinos again as soon as possible. The events that have
taken place in Ukraine do not influence the sustainability of OEG. The
operating revenue of OEG's Ukrainian subsidiary is approximately 12% of the
consolidated operating revenue of OEG.

OEG will inform about any developments of the situation through the stock
exchange system at once after circumstances have been clarified. 

    #################

And a comment on the Rada action by the Kyiv Post:

http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/41521

    #################

My wife told me this was on Ukrainian TV last night. The top article is a PR release from OEG a major money-laund.....I mean casino operator in Ukraine. Slot machine halls were also affected by this action.

For those who have not been to Ukraine, this will put thousands more people out of work. These operations are not just the big, mostly empty casino fronts, they include thousands of little kiosks all over Ukraine (metro stations, train platforms, shopping centers, etc.) each with a half dozen or so employees.

The best bet is that Ukraine will try to do what we do here and what Russia is in the process of enacting there. That is limiting gambling geographically to "zones," probably a couple in Crimea, another around Odessa, maybe one near the Sea of Azov and a couple more scattered near Kyiv and Dniepropetrosk. It also means the oligarchs in the Rada are thinking through their investment properties and doing their best imitation of coongressional-style pork barrel negotiating with each other to see how many can get rich(er) quicker as the casions and hotels try to rebuild a couple of Vegas-style complexes.

Any bets on how this turns out as far as a regulatory measure? An economic development strategy?

[Mir]

Kievstar

A strong $ cannot prevent the world from falling apart.
If you say US economy is doing well then and 9% unemployment is good then I salute your economic knowledge.
Here in UK unemployment has just reached 7% and it is all doom and gloom.

[Aloe]

wow i never knew ukraine had it THAT bad 

[Aloe]

can you really survive in odessa on $90 a month? how much is food and rent of 1 room apt?

[Makkin]

   Numbers are fickle Mir and to accept a number is a "Leap of Faith" in many regards.


   Mix into the equation the prices for food,petrol,lodging,etc...Mix all these numbers up and invent a new number and that may explain optimism versus dread and fear.


Makkin

[Mir]

Makin

I am not sure what you mean but believe me there are optimists everywhere.
In the same way that there are realists and pessimists everywhere as well.
Who know who is correct and who is living in a dream land.
I see very little evidence that US, UK or any other country is out of the woods yet and there is a lot of evidence to support this pessimism.
However if you want to ignore the evidence and just be optimist then there is nothing wrong with that either.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/16052009/323/uptick-doesn-t-mean-crisis-top-economist.html

[tfcrew]

Yushchenko should stop looking to find excuses and falsely blaming others for his own failures.
With Opinion Polls showing Yushchenko at less then 3% support there is no way he will be reelected to a second term of office.
Yushenko's actions and attempts to destabilise Ukraine's Parliamnetary gpvernemnet has taken it toll on Ukraine's economy and set back Ukraine's integration and democrtopc development 15 years.His recent attempts tp c;ing on to power for an extra 3 moths and force Ukraine to hold Presidential elections in the middle of Ukraine's bitter cold winter is further example of his lack of care and concern for Ukraine.
The last think Ukraine can afford is a prolonged Presidential election and the ongoing uncertainty and bitter infighting.
If Yushchenko cared for Ukraine and valued the democratic right of citizens to participate in free elections then he would offer his resignation in order to pave the way for an early Autumn election.

http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2009/05/05/179685

[ECOCKS]

can you really survive in odessa on $90 a month? how much is food and rent of 1 room apt?

White money. Maybe some more from a grateful doctor's split from patients or even the occasional grateful patient who remembers the nurse. Then you either live with family in their apartment or get 3 roommates to share your apartment.

My mother-in-law's pension is just a bit more than $90/month and I cannot stand thinking about what she would be eating or where she would be living.

The worker's paradise.

[Makkin]

Mir,

  Not sure what line of logic your on but I think I understand you in this economic situation. I study a good deal of the day on all forms of what you mention and also deal in the market with good enough results.

  My sympathy goes out to all those who are suffering in these times and actually do understand just a tad of what you mention. What I find interesting is that we want to compare suffering and stick our chest's out as if to say we are doing better etc...

  I'm not accusing you of these things but I understand how you post and how you respond and you sometimes mention these things above paragraph quite a bit as if to either guage or ground a persons opinion of the economic situation.

  I won't demand your time with posting links and such things because we are logical enough to see what's going on around us.

  Okay so Spain is at 17.4 unemployment and as you mentioned Britain or England is at 7.0. The USA is at 8.9 or so butttttt.....Texas is lower and at about your seven percent. What does that tell us? I think we know if we look right? California needs water and those palm trees in Hollywood are not native and demand millions of gallons of water per year. There will always be problems even after this recovery takes place and it will.

   I could actually mention thousands of items of interest here but it would not aid or assist so this will be as short as possible......

   When the European banks recover it will be time to celebrate for Europe and when the bottom is found in all of this it will show you actually who the crooks are and how they may be slowed down. It's simple to win in the stock market if you think like a crook M8.

Makkin

[ECOCKS]

Meanwhile back to the question of UKRAINE'S economic situation.......

Many of you just don't get the whole thread and topic system do you?

[Shadow]

Meanwhile back to the question of UKRAINE'S economic situation.......

Many of you just don't get the whole thread and topic system do you?

Do you REALLY mean we should stay on topic ?  :whirling:

[ECOCKS]

Do you REALLY mean we should stay on topic ?  :whirling:

We could at least stay on the same continent........   

[Makkin]

 I agree....


   Ukraine has it much tougher than USA or Britain.


   Makkin

[Shadow]

Ukraine would have been in trouble without a crisis. With the current wolrd situation I believe it will become explosive.

In my school days I was taught that if there is a big gap between expectations and reality, there is change for a (violent) revolution.
The current president started out promising a much better life for Ukrainians, with hopes of foreign investment (US & Europe) and starting process of joining NATO and the EU. Now that his re-election is near, things have not materialised.
And due to the crisis none of his promises seems to become reality in the near future.
What I read of the situation it seems explosive, and there will not be needed a lot to get the people out in the streets again demanding a better life.

I hope that the Ukrainians will remain as peaceful as they were in the past, as a civil conflict would just tear up things more, and might lead to interventions from other countries.

[emc]

I hope that the Ukrainians will remain as peaceful as they were in the past, as a civil conflict would just tear up things more, and might lead to interventions from other countries.

I hope that we will find a peaceful way out of our situation, and none will play with difficult relationship between west and east.

[kievstar]

Mir, UK is not USA so you cannot compare them.  UK is not a technological leader or leader in manufacturing.  London as Europe financial hub is fading. 

Work ethic in UK cannot handle the same amount of unemployment as USA.  UK is still more socialist and birth rates are declining.  They do offer very low taxes for corporations and if Obama starts messing with the USA tax code look for many Fortune 500 companies setting up in London.  Which also bring all the high priced employees with it.  Would do wonders for UK. 

[Mir]

1 dollar now is 7.5 hvn and we think that by the end of May it can be about 7 hrv

Well it sure has improved, I was in Kiev just 2 weeks ago and it was 8, I can't see much reason for the improvement except that the Ruble has also appreciated. So perhaps despite independence Ukrainian currency is still tied in some way to the Rubble?

[Makkin]

Kievstar,

  Who do you believe will take over as the economic headquaters of Europe after Britain? I tend to agree with you on this but not sure who will get it???


Makkin

[Makkin]

 I did mean to say "London".

[ECOCKS]

Dollar weakening a bit has improved the hryvnia with maybe a little influence from the tranche release from the IMF. Still nowhere near the end of the slide though. Trying to rush the recovery and remove the constraints on their banks is probably going to kill a few of their financial institutions as their oligarchs scramble to pick up the pieces they think are lying around for the taking.

[kievstar]

Makkin, I think the financial hub will be more spread out but Obama's policies could move USA portions into London. Time will tell.

I think parts of Asia and Middle East are better suited for the World's financial hubs.  London and New York will be big players for awhile but they need to work on damage control.

But when you look around Europe at the big cities I do not see one who can be a financial leader of Europe.  But in other areas of the World many cities could do it.  Hard concept for some people to realize a financial leading city of Europe does not have to be in Europe.

Moscow and Ukraine will most likely never be in our life a leading financial city. 

[ECOCKS]

Update on the Casino Jobs situation:


"...said Grigory Trypulsky, vice president of the Ukrainian Association of Gambling Industry Personalities. “Instantly,  , more than 200,000 people could lose their jobs.”

"On one hand, polls show many Ukrainians want the more than 100,000 casinos and slot machine halls scattered across their neighborhoods either closed down, or moved out. On the other hand, shocked owners of casinos and slot machine halls are protesting. More than 2,000 gambling-business employees gathered outside the president’s office on May 19, warning that more than 200,000 employees could lose their jobs overnight."

Full text of article:
http://www.kyivpost.com/nation/41913

Unemployment, lost taxes, empty buildings, angry oligarchs, corruption, addiciton, teenagers.....sounds like the typical FSU soap opera to me.