Fewer men than women in Russia? Seems it's not just "agency" hype

[BrightDawn]

This article was part of a monthly report from a securities brokerage firm. I have highlighted in bold some interesting information on demographics in Russia. You may or may not be interested in the rest of it.

Russian Roulette: in spite of higher energy prices, Moscow's rise is by no means certain

In early June, with much of the world transfixed by the civil turmoil in post-election Iran, the so-called BRIC nations met in Yekaterinburg in central Russia to talk, among other things, about the US dollar.

The meeting of Brazil, Russia, India and China followed fast on the heels of a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a mutual security federation comprised of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia herself.

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Both China and Russia have been talking about replacing the dollar as world's reserve currency. So-called "quantitative easing" (i.e., monetizing of debt) by the Federal Reserve appears to have spooked Chinese and Russian creditors who have been wondering if they will soon be holding devalued dollars.

On June 10, Russia's first deputy chairman of the Central Bank said his country may also move some of its reserves from U.S. Treasuries in to IMF bonds, a statement which caused US Treasuries and the dollar to fall.

Roughly 30 percent of Russia's international reserves, about $409.5 billion, are currently held in Treasuries, according to officials.

What do these developments mean for the fate of the dollar?

In fact, the IMF reports that global reserves of dollars have recently been falling, and a number of traders are now predicting a rally for the greenback. A "liquidity crunch" on the global reserve markets seems to have followed in the wake of the 2008 credit crunch, possibly providing some dollar support.

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Both China and Russia seek an orderly exit from the dollar stranglehold, but neither wants to see existing reserves diluted in the event of a run. It seems likely that both countries hope to gain a competitive advantage in exports by keeping their currencies comparatively weak.

<snip>

With over 44 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves and nearly 80 billion barrels of oil, Russia would seem to be in the stronger position even if the dollar declines, since a weaker greenback tends to support commodity prices.

But in terms of demographics, evidence suggests that Russia is in fact facing some strong headwinds in the near future. "Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major war", Martin Walker recently wrote in the The Wilson Quarterly, citing declining fertility rates, alcoholism, AIDS and other diseases as the culprits.

The mortality rates in Russia are 3-5 times higher for men and twice as high for women when compared to nations at similar rates of development, according to a 2008 UN Development report.

British medical journal The Lancet provided some support for Walker's dire statements in a recently published study showing that following the Soviet collapse, alcohol abuse caused more than half of deaths among Russians aged 15 to 54.

Walker notes, "a very large question mark must be placed on the future of Russia, whose population of working age men looks set to decline by half".

The United States on the other hand appears to be in the middle of a reproductive boom; the Pew Research Center is projecting that if present trends continue, the US population will rise from 300 million to 438 million by 2050. Currently the US fertility rate is at its highest level since 1971 according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

As we go to press, the New York Times is also reporting a bleak projection for the Russian economy, which the World Bank expects to contract by 7.9 percent this year and "not recover to pre-crisis levels until at least 2012."

The Bank also forecast that Russia would "end the year with 17.4 percent of the population, or about 24.6 million people, living in poverty".

These dismal projections are even more sobering in light of the recent partial recovery in energy prices.

Widespread poverty, high inflation and declining foreign direct investment all point to possible instability in Russia's near future unless the Kremlin turns its attention away from harassing its neighbors and towards rescuing the Russian people from demographic suicide.

In any event, we expect global uncertainty and potential instability to support the dollar, while possibly limiting commodity prices in the near term, despite Ben Bernanke's quantitative easing.

[Mars]

No one seriously disagrees that there are fewer men than women in Russia.  Even the official statistics show it. 

But the total number of men to women in Russia and the FSU is irrelevant to those involved in international dating and marriage between RW and WM.

It is the women compared to men in the appropriate age range that is relevant.

As I remember the official statistics, there are not great disparities between the number of RW and RM within the range of 20 to 40.  It is only when you get to the 50 + age range that there might be something like 2 women for every man.

[BrightDawn]

The numbers may be even, but when 50% of men that dies in that age range die from alcohol abuse, this gives a clue that many are not what a RW considers good marriage material.

[Shadow]

For those who want to read more about the results of the study:
http://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/iarcnews/2009/IARCLancet270709.pdf

Study was done in Tomsk,Barnaul and Biysk, regarding deaths between 1999 and 2001.

For the UN report: http://www.undp.ru/documents/NHDR_2008_Eng.pdf

[BC]

The numbers may be even, but when 50% of men that dies in that age range die from alcohol abuse, this gives a clue that many are not what a RW considers good marriage material.

What about the 25% of women?  Maybe half of the same 'clue' should be passed on to WM?

They say:
“This...is consistent with alcohol being responsible for about three quarters of
all male Russian deaths at ages 15-54 years and about half of all female Russia
deaths at these ages—ie, [proportions] even greater than in our study
population.”

Proverb.. The dull side of a sword causes more pain, but the results are the same.

[Rina_G]

I never thought about this till I was divorsed. I look around and saw - all men are merry or have gf. Rels free man there is't in Russia. I say above40 years.
and then I remember my school - 18 girls and 7-10 boys. It was normal.
should add - Afganistan, Caucas war, alcohol and picture is very sad.
I know so many nice and smast and free ladies around me and ONE free man - my ex - lol

[GoodOlBoy]

As I remember the official statistics, there are not great disparities between the number of RW and RM within the range of 20 to 40.

Maybe so, BUT.....It still doesn't excuse the fact that MANY RW don't see a bright future with RM who abuse alcohol (in their 20's-40's), abuse their wives and children and then exits the scene of the crime early (dies).

So naturally, smart RW look elsewhere for a mate.

It is only when you get to the 50 + age range that there might be something like 2 women for every man.

GOB

[Misha]

As I remember the official statistics, there are not great disparities between the number of RW and RM within the range of 20 to 40.  It is only when you get to the 50 + age range that there might be something like 2 women for every man.

The problem is that the behaviors that lead to higher death rates won't make you ideal marriage material or as the friend of a my wife who was in her twenties, single, and living in Moscow complained: "all the unmarried men are either gay, alcoholics or drug addicts." In other words, the 35-year-old divorced alcoholic may live to the ripe old age of 55, but most women would not want to marry him.

[neo]

I don't think anyone disagrees that there are proportionately more single women than men in FSU, a number of wars and road accidents have contributed to this statistic. I remember of 10 guys my wife went to school with she said 3 had died in fatal car accidents, 1 had been shot in a mafia disagreement over property, 1 had been killed in a army training accident and 1 had fallen off a building site to his death. thats about a 40 percent survival rate by 25!

Theres no doubting there are more single women, but there are a lot of single women in the west, unfortunately you have to discount all the ones you wouldnt even consider as a partner (both here and there) because they have mental problems, look like farmyard animals etc and it leaves you with probably less than 5% demographic of which you are competing against men from all over the world.

Before we were married my wife had over 385 men write to her from every country you can think of, of which at least 15 showed up for a meeting over a 12-18 month period, out of which she said at most 2 were marriage material and the other guy didn't want to commit....

So statistics are only part of the story :0)

[Rina_G]

to neo - thanks for good comment - i agree - it's just part of problem

[BC]

So statistics are only part of the story :0)

At the individual level they serve no purpose.. that's why these statistics threads seem so senseless.

Just smoke to put in your cannons.

[ML]

Despite all the obfuscation, it still remains pretty much as Mars said:

"As I remember the official statistics, there are not great disparities between the number of RW and RM within the range of 20 to 40.  It is only when you get to the 50 + age range that there might be something like 2 women for every man."

So this talk about excess of women or shortage of men in the 20-40 age range in FSU is still hogwash.

Now, some have tried to subtly (or not) slide the debate into the realm of lack of 'suitable partners.'  But once you start down that road, then it (suitability) can be used as an excuse for anything.

[Misha]

But once you start down that road, then it (suitability) can be used as an excuse for anything.

Including going overseas and looking for a Russian wife  :evil:

[Aloe]

what is this alcohol abuse everyone talks about? according to world health organization's last research in 2004 Russia takes 19th place in alcohol consumption per capita in the world, consuming  less alcohol than people in Ireland, Germany, France, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Denmark, Switzerland, and other countries, and nearly twice less alcohol than people in Uganda
http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_status_report_2004_overview.pdf
There are so many deaths from alcohol in Russia because there is a LOT of fake alcohol on sale, that is very toxic.

Birth rate is rising as well, in the first quarter of 2009 birth rate in Russia grew 4 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008, in Central region (Moscow and etc) birth rate grew almost 8 percent

[possum]

what is this alcohol abuse everyone talks about? according to world health organization's last research in 2004 Russia takes 19th place in alcohol consumption per capita in the world, consuming  less alcohol than people in Ireland, Germany, France, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Denmark, Switzerland, and other countries, and nearly twice less alcohol than people in Uganda
http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_status_report_2004_overview.pdf
There are so many deaths from alcohol in Russia because there is a LOT of fake alcohol on sale, that is very toxic.

Birth rate is rising as well, in the first quarter of 2009 birth rate in Russia grew 4 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008, in Central region (Moscow and etc) birth rate grew almost 8 percent

This has been explained before.. The official stats do not account for the consumption of samogon and rubbing alcohol..

[Aloe]

This has been explained before.. The official stats do not account for the consumption of samogon and rubbing alcohol..

that is consumed only in deep dark villages. I do not know a single person who would drink that

[possum]

that is consumed only in deep dark villages. I do not know a single person who would drink that

In the biggest and darkest village in Russia called Not Moscow it is consumed on a regular basis.. 

[Shadow]

what is this alcohol abuse everyone talks about? according to world health organization's last research in 2004 Russia takes 19th place in alcohol consumption per capita in the world, consuming  less alcohol than people in Ireland, Germany, France, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Denmark, Switzerland, and other countries, and nearly twice less alcohol than people in Uganda
http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_status_report_2004_overview.pdf
There are so many deaths from alcohol in Russia because there is a LOT of fake alcohol on sale, that is very toxic.

If you want to have more doubt on the validity of the report, see that consumption in Ukraine is only half of that in Russia.

[Misha]

In the biggest and darkest village in Russia called Not Moscow it is consumed on a regular basis.. 

LOL! However, I am sure that the бомжы and the very poor drunks of Moscow drink their fair share of "тройной одеколон" as well (also not recorded in the official stats).

[Silver Birch]

No one seriously disagrees that there are fewer men than women in Russia.  Even the official statistics show it. 

But the total number of men to women in Russia and the FSU is irrelevant to those involved in international dating and marriage between RW and WM.

It is the women compared to men in the appropriate age range that is relevant.

As I remember the official statistics, there are not great disparities between the number of RW and RM within the range of 20 to 40.  It is only when you get to the 50 + age range that there might be something like 2 women for every man.

Hmm

there are the same - if not MORE men than women up to around the 50+ age group.. even then it is not two times more!

What *is* relevant is whether the FSUW feel those men who are "available" are suitable partners for marriage