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Author Topic: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!  (Read 4564 times)

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Offline Gylden

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Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« on: December 14, 2009, 10:06:57 PM »
According to enrichment journal on the divorce rate in America:
The divorce rate in America for first marriage is 41%
The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

Has anyone seen this website?
http://www.agencyscams.com/Divorce.html
Stats from this site are interesting;
Foreign Marriage Statistics
A few guys have blasted me for the statistic of foreign marriage statistics that I have on my Facts page. Well, here are the official statistics from the US government (uscis.gov) for the year 2003.

3889 K-1's (fiancée) entered the USA
54.0% left the USA within 6 months
28.2% left between 6 months to one year
17.7% lasted more than one year

1546 K-3 (spouse) entered the USA
70.3% left the USA within 6 months
22.6% left between 6 months to one year
7.1 % lasted more than one year

Comments?

Offline JR

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2009, 10:20:17 PM »
Comments?

Yeah, those are not good odds. ))))
Always be a first-rate version of yourself, instead of a second-rate version of somebody else :)

Offline Gylden

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2009, 10:23:05 PM »
I read a lot on this web site, kind of the other side of things, a little shocking.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2009, 11:11:20 PM »
Well, here are the official statistics from the US government (uscis.gov) for the year 2003.

Comments?

Gylden-

These numbers have been discussed before. USCIS (DHS) should have a good accounting of these numbers. However, they do not necessarily mean bad news. Quite the contrary.

The return numbers are mostly representative of FSUWs going back via Advance Paroles. Once K-1 beneficiaries marry their sponsors, filing for AOS is normally accompanied by AP. As you can see, K-3 recipients get to go back in greater numbers and often in a more accelerated schedule since they usually get their GCs much sooner.
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Offline Gylden

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2009, 11:29:44 PM »
I think I understand what you mean, that some of these women are just returning to the FSU temporary to take care of lose ends or something? and that then they return to the US?
I have to admit, I am a skeptical type of person.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2009, 11:34:07 PM »
I think I understand what you mean, that some of these women are just returning to the FSU temporary to take care of lose ends or something? and that then they return to the US?
I have to admit, I am a skeptical type of person.

Among other things but usually they return to ease the pangs of being away awhile. You'll be surprised how well verse many FSUWs (on K-1s) are about what Advance Parole is. Or the benefit of K-3s as it enable them to return much sooner.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2009, 11:36:31 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Son of Clyde

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2009, 08:21:17 AM »
Actually this is very scary.

The divorce rate in America for first marriage is 41%
The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

You would think people would learn by their mistakes.
I would think it should be the opposite with a larger percentage of first marriages failing and the percentages going DOWN for second and third marriages.

Maybe it is why I have two aunts who were married for 50+ years before their husbands passed away. They both married during WWII. Totally different generation.

Offline viking

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2009, 09:03:11 AM »
Age Women Men
Under 20 years old 27.6% 11.7%
20 to 24 years old 36.6% 38.8%
25 to 29 years old 16.4% 22.3%
30 to 34 years old 8.5% 11.6% 
35 to 39 years old 5.1% 6.5%

A better perspective. Divorce rates based upon age. the first numbers are for women, the second for men. Seems after you hit about 30, the divorce rates go waaaay down. So? Marry an older RW !!!!
Tom Hanks in Castaway: You never know what the tide may bring in.
Viking: But you still need to walk along the beach to find it.

Offline Jumper

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2009, 09:25:05 AM »
Glyden
Quote
1546 K-3 (spouse) entered the USA
70.3% left the USA within 6 months
22.6% left between 6 months to one year
7.1 % lasted more than one year


Those particular stats only refer to someone (man or woman) on a USA K3 visa leaving the  country for whatever reason ,
or whatever length of time.

so its only real value is to show that around 93% of people using a K3 visa for immigration,
 traveled outside the USA  ... .within 1 year
this could be a trip home, to visit family, a vacation trip to mexico, bahamas, or DR,,
 the other 7% waited more than a year before applying for travel outside the USA,,
..that is all that it shows.


it really has no relevance to divorce rate,
other than "some " of those may have divorced,
but the likely hood is that even if they did divorce,
that they stayed within the USA..
so it makes those stats even less useful..in determining divorce rates of K3 immigrants

and it's why that guy has taken flack on posting those  statistics in that fashion, (and using his own wording) very misleading.
since he is allegedly , trying to be accurate,
 has been well informed  of this statistic being invalid for that use,
and has left it up anyway..
you have to say  he is intentionally misleading at this point.


The bolded part is diffinantely incorrect, as appllied

7 % lasted more than one year.. as stated  , implies only 7% of K3 marriages  lasted more than one year.

certainly not the case! totally false.
 
what the stat shows is K3 applicants that waited longer than a year to apply for a travel visa,
regardless what the travel was for.
these could include  happily married people traveling together on vacation,business,or to visit family ..

My exwife (we were married 6 years)
waited about 14 months before her first out of country travel,, and trip back to see her family..
so matches the bolded statistic.
During the first 6 months or year i encouraged her to travel to see the family,
she was not terribly homesick,, and simply preferred to wait.
You see how those  statistics would be very misleading about length of K3 (or I-130) marriages?

If she had simply decided to see her family sooner, or we had decided to vacation sooner,,
she would fall in the *leaving even earlier * "shocking"  stats ;)

Also:

There is more to that statistic..

Keep in mind that vast majority of immigrants on the K3 visa are not from europe or asia..
but from mexico..
Since its a neighboring country sharing  a large border.. and border areas to live and relocate in...
a "travel " outside the USA within the first 6 months, or year, is hardly surprising at all.

if you are a citizen of mexico,
lets say near TJ,,and married someone on a K3 that resides in chula vista..california
(20 minute drive maybe,and there are close towns)
yet officially got your travel docs in order to be proper in taking the 20 minutes drive to go mom or dad ,
..   the week after your nuptials.
the stats would show you left the USA within a week.
(and the guy is mis -using a USA visa statistic,  to imply the marriage lasted a week)
 i'm exaggerating to make a point,, ,
but with the large border,, and large immigrant population in texas,california,arizona,new mexico .border states..as well as many others,,
then include Canada/USA. with large cites that sit next to each other on the border..
 
 its a wonder the statistic is not at 99.9% !!!!

;)



Granted the divorce rate is probably high..!!!!!!!!!!

the point is , that statistic is utterly useless  in showing that.



« Last Edit: December 15, 2009, 09:29:35 AM by AJ »
.

Offline kievstar

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2009, 10:07:04 AM »
My wife has returned to Ukraine (than back to USA) within first 2 months in the USA.  She will probably take 3 plus trips a year to Ukraine.   I wonder how the numbers add up for her - does she get calculated at 1 visit or 3 which makes the numbers even more distorted.


Offline Gylden

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2009, 11:18:40 AM »
I am sure those stats for leaving the country are missleading, I am sure they include all foreigners and leaving for all reasons, as AJ said.

Offline Admin

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2009, 01:14:52 PM »
According to enrichment journal on the divorce rate in America:
The divorce rate in America for first marriage is 41%
The divorce rate in America for second marriage is 60%
The divorce rate in America for third marriage is 73%

Has anyone seen this website?
http://www.agencyscams.com/Divorce.html
Stats from this site are interesting;
Foreign Marriage Statistics
A few guys have blasted me for the statistic of foreign marriage statistics that I have on my Facts page. Well, here are the official statistics from the US government (uscis.gov) for the year 2003.

3889 K-1's (fiancée) entered the USA
54.0% left the USA within 6 months
28.2% left between 6 months to one year
17.7% lasted more than one year

1546 K-3 (spouse) entered the USA
70.3% left the USA within 6 months
22.6% left between 6 months to one year
7.1 % lasted more than one year

Comments?


Anytime you see statistics listed without specific reference, it would be wise to challenge them.

In terms of reliable statistics, you will find the ONLY reliable statistics about cross-cultural marriage and divorce at this link -- http://www.goodwife.com/survey/xcultural_p01.html.

In summary, cross-cultural marriages fail at a rate almost 25% lower than domestic US marriages - and there are lots of other statistics indicated.

- Dan

Offline Gylden

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2009, 01:34:38 PM »
you are right Dan, statistics results do not allways agree with each other. I found many, they were not so far apart, but one thing they did have in common, was that the more times one is divorced, the more likely they will be divorced again. I never saw anything to support the contrary. I did find that 25% better figure somewhere for FSUW though, but when I looked at that Goodwife link, when I calculate the numbers it looks more like 17% is right according to their stats? Anyway what I found most interesting was the radically  higher likelihood of a second and subsequent third divorce. Those stats about foreign spouses leaving the country, I think we allready discovered the flaw in those.

Offline Simoni

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Re: Stats that don't look good for divorcees!!
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2009, 03:57:33 PM »
I think I understand what you mean, that some of these women are just returning to the FSU temporary to take care of lose ends or something? and that then they return to the US?
I have to admit, I am a skeptical type of person.

My wife goes home to Ukraine twice a year.  Sometimes three times.   Being with family is important to her, and I think that is a big positive.  I usually go with her one time a year--I love being over there.  The sense of energy and community is wonderful.

 

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