"The Russian Bride Business Is Dead" ? Really?

[dbneeley]

Take it easy on Andrew. He really is one of us. I have always heard that Andrew is an excellent host and a real gentleman. Very hospitable to those of us he meets. My guess his website/PDF was a work in progress and would evolve into something that does not resemble what it does now. That is the usual way with big one man projects.

It is often true that someone's online persona may be very different from how they are in person, for a wide variety of reasons. Andrew may well be charm personified in his personal dealings when face to face. His online personality, though, seems another matter entirely--buttressed by this particular exhibition.

I suspect that his "sky is falling/agencies are dead" idea was strongly influenced by the HRB CEO, who said much the same thing on this board.

David

[Shadow]

Clearly an email phishing method.

[Ade]

Well, my first thought was, wtf, my second thought was that someone was impersonating Andrewfi.

Seriously not what I'd expect coming from him; far too hyperbolic with too narrow a focus and far too few objective facts involved.

To some extent I agree with almost everything Jooky has said. The real MOB business is on its way out more because of the ease of access to the FSU and the availability of information on both sides. The fantasy side which panders to the greasy, the pretend adulterers, and the man-boys in their mum's basement, and probably the greatest money maker of the industry, will be around forever in some form or other, IMBRA or no.

But who cares? Anyone serious about finding an international partner will do so anyway without the assistance of an IMB and will probably be better off without; after all, it's not rocket science and never has been. 

As an aside; I thought he'd be younger. And slimmer.

[andrewfi]

Ecocks, Jooky and others, why bother to criticise the presentation? Why not do the real job and deal with the content?

The bottom line is that whatever you might think of how I chose to present the material the tools and methods work very well. My task is to communicate and if you honestly tell me that you CAN NOT download the report because I ask you to provide a working email addy or you don't like the words  used to attract attention and interest as well as communicate a message then you are much smaller people than I had imagined.

You are not the only people to whom this document is aimed and so you should not for one second think of you as being the centre of the world. My consideration is thus not just existing reders of this forum. As those who have downloaded my report will already know I actually link to this forum, and others, to enable readers to come and post what they think; I know that this is happening. Why not help these new people out by showing some degree of openmindedness?

[andrewfi]

Seriously Jaded, businesses change over time as markets and the environments in which they operate change.

The process of people meeting and building relationships over distance is increasing by leaps and bounds but there is a period of discontinuous change coming up. It is this change that will be hard for most exisitng service providers and their clients will find hard to manage.
This, in essence is the basic concept of the report - its focus.

What did you think of the processes I described? Did you agree with the processes I identified? Did I miss some out? Do you disagree that we are seeing a period of discontinuous change?

[tfcrew]

Clearly an email phishing method.

Then why go to all this trouble?
I just clicked your name and saw your email address.

 

Anyone serious about finding an international partner will do so anyway without the assistance of an IMB and will probably be better off without.

There was a time that one used a newspaper and the post office to correspond with foreign ladies.

I thought he'd be younger. And slimmer.

Don't see what that has to do w/anything. The guy in my picture just got a year older and ## lbs heavier. It happens...................

Karl

[Gator]

Andrewfi,

I read your document.  It was easy to read (us seniors thank you for the double spacing and large font).  It was well written as are all of your compositions. And I would term it interesting although not new to me.  I submit the following to help you advance your project.


SUBSTANTIVE COMMENTS

Regarding substance, I agree with the points made by Sir Jaded and Jooky.

Your report stresses IMBRA, contrary to my opinion that IMBRA has little influence on the process IF 1) the agency complies with the disclosure step and 2) the man is not seeking a waiver.  RW should know about the information that IMBRA requires to be disclosed in advance of correspondence.  Elena's Models complies with this regulation with about 5 minutes of additional effort when registering.  In other words, I don't see it as a BIG DEAL provided the man has no relevant entanglements with the law.  Considering the totality of all immigration hurdles one must jump, IMBRA is minimal.

I suppose you see this as a trend of increasing Federal and State regulation and not a final point.  Maybe, but that is speculative.


MY OBSERVATIONS OF THE BUSINESS

What changes have I observed over 8 years of meeting RW? 

In 2002 I went hunting for interesting RW prospects with letters to about 60 RW listed with agencies.  About 67% of the RW replied positively, most enthusiastically.  That was a lot of fun.  About 25% of the correspondence was "pay by letter," a practice I quickly saw as potential trouble.   I narrowed my list to 8 RW and spent 30 days in Ukraine and Russia meeting 7 of them.  All 7 treated me as nice as one could expect.   A fantastic trip, and worth every dollar I spent.  And I eventually (in 2008) I married one of those 7.

In 2005-6 I started another letter writing campaign and worked solely with FreePersonals and Elena's Models.  I directed my attention towards RW with a smaller age disparity RW. The positive response dropped from 67% to about 33%.  Nevertheless, this culminated in my finding the best woman on earth.  Alas, she and I could not take our relationship to the ultimate level.

Six months ago after divorcing my 2008 wife and trying AW, I again returned to the EM type of agencies. I was greeted by more RW than ever to peruse, and the search tools had improved.  Nevertheless, the positive response rate dropped to 10-15%. Of importance, the RW who responded were indeed seriously interested in me and ready to talk about anything. Tools such as Skype allowed me quickly to learn more about a RW than I ever did in 2002 and 2006, as much as I knew after one meeting in 2002.

SUMMARY

Based on my experience, the ability to meet RW is not dead.  The agency business is probably suffering because it will cost me only $100 to become connected to several viable candidates. 

The question arises as whether my connection method would satisfy IMBRA.  I feel it would for EM (a broker who disclosed IMBRA info) and Mamba (not a broker).  It could be deemed a failure for those sources that could be construed as a broker yet did not collect much less disclose IMBRA info.
   

[I/O]

Anyone have any numbers as to how many MOB's marry into USA vs how many marry into non American locations?

[Shadow]

Andrew,

I will not comment on the substance until you allow the download without giving an e-mail address.
In the mean time, do you deny that you are actually offering people money if they supply you with valid e-mail adresses ?

[Jumper]

Anyone have any numbers as to how many MOB's marry into USA vs how many marry into non American locations?

That would be interesting.
(and i'd think Australia might  be climbing in percent )

Perhaps equally relevant is which is the largest countries for which USA K visa's are applied for ..
and those percents..

how many of those have anything to do with MOB.
and those that do have an MOB base, how many have anything to do with the FSU.


I'm certain the various factors are hurting the MOB biz,

but the fantasy side will do just fine lol
until we see a dip in "singles near you" advertising ,it's pretty sure thing that beautiful women in bikini's
will continue to sell anything from toasters to email/chat contacts.


Andrewfi has been saying the *sky is falling* for a decade..

even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
 

To be fair considering during that time he has been mostly in Estonia , and that collapse would  naturally proceed some others, he should have soem good insight ,and lay out the factors pretty well.
kudos?

but i'm still confused of exactly how the information can help the target audience.

as example:
I know tourism and diving activities  are on the decline.
 There are many factors,both economic and regulatory.

Outlining them ,or the fact there are less dive boats in operation, doesn't actually help me line up the next dive boat.
*cough* selling some sensationlised report on this currently declining situation, on a dive forum intended to help divers , without outlining exactly *why* it might help them , would just seem odd.

Not that there is anything wrong with being odd.

 



 

[andrewfi]

Gator, I formatted the document to suit my needs, ie it is comfortable for me to read, I figure that I owe it to my readers to give them at least the same standards as I prefer to enjoy myself.

I hope I did not concentrate upon IMBRA over much, but it is true that the audit office of the USG criticised the tardiness of implementation of IMBRA. Up until now both clients and service providers hae enjoyed a free ride; expect that to change and then see just what it means.

BUT, state level legislation is another ball of wax, this makes it much harder for businesses to function and this is well known by those groups that promote this copy/paste legislation across the USA.

I do think though that most service providers in the international niche need to address issues of transparency. It is my belief that various kinds of support ARE needed for most US based wife hunters but as I noted, trust has been well and truly broken. It is this insight that leads me to emphasize transparency. You are correct to note the increase in alternate communication methods but my research suggests that for some people, particularly women, some of the no/low cost methods preferred by American men are not appropriate.

Shadow, you make your own choices. Everybody who signs up to receive the first document is offered a small incentive to help me to spread the word. Given that I want to get the word spread this seems pretty reasonable. If you don't want to help don't, I promise I won't cry. However, you know enough about the innerneds for me to be vexed by your silly suggestion that I am running a phishing site. I have stated my information need and it is no more than the information need for this forum - actually in truth probably more limited than for this forum.

AJ over the past few years I have made various points about the IMB business, indeed most of them turn up in my report (you HAVE read it, yes?)
Over the years my observations have proven to be on the mark. What I am seeing now is a confluence of forces that will lead to a discontinuous change in this niche of the online dating business and that change will happen very soon.

So, do you guys think that the trends I have noted are valid?
Are they going to lead to a step change in how the business works?

Do you think that nobody needs the services provided over the past decade or so to incoming male clients?

[ECOCKS]

I think businesses which meet customer needs are successful and those which don't, aren't. Not really all that complicated. As industries mature they change due to competition, government regulation, technology, trends, social mores and a host of issues. This is true whether you're selling a bride, hurricane lamps or horseshoeing services.

Guys have been able to DIY for well over a decade.

Lazy, ignorant and less serious guys don't understand this and get taken advantage of but their problems are largely of their own making. Some regulation is handy for protecting people from themselves and their families.

Government protection of their citizens, immigration regulations and offering the capability of checking on one's fiance' will become more basic and, after evolution of processes and methods, will come closer to offering protection to foreigners who have contact with citizens. I also hope to someday see this protection extended to fellow citizens.

VAWA and IMBRA have problems with implementation, intent, enforcement, interpretation and education. Write your Congressman and work on getting them corrected.

[JR]

Jooky: Agencies are just not needed.



Now there is the crux of the matter....

If someone wants to marry a foreigner the current obstacles won't stand in the way.

And if someone really wants out they have ways to self-immigrate, (Lily anyone?)

[andrewfi]

ecocks, you are right to suggest that the businesses that tend to survive are those that meet customer needs, however this is not a given.

Some regulation of markets is necessary, no doubt about it, the problems come when the regulation is less to do with the market and more to do with non-market related issues and also when that regulation is inconsistent and unpredictable.

What I am seeing is a situation where the choices for clients become restricted because of non-market related issues and that is hardly ever a good thing. Set aside for a moment some of the privacy and personal responsibility issues the industry is facing that folks who carry guns as a hobby should understand pretty well!

It is my firm belief that people should be able to choose a course of action that suits them without the need to be treated as a potential criminal for wanting to seek a relationship with a person from another country.

[Shadow]

Shadow, you make your own choices. Everybody who signs up to receive the first document is offered a small incentive to help me to spread the word. Given that I want to get the word spread this seems pretty reasonable. If you don't want to help don't, I promise I won't cry. However, you know enough about the innerneds for me to be vexed by your silly suggestion that I am running a phishing site. I have stated my information need and it is no more than the information need for this forum - actually in truth probably more limited than for this forum.

Lets make it clear. You need e-mail adresses of potential bride seekers for some reason.
The reason is not your decision to selflessley give out knowledge, as for that you would not need the data of other people.
This means there can be just one single reason, and that is you wish to gather internet adresses of bride seekers active on these forums, in order to gain profit from them, most probably by using them as referrals for an internet marketing system.

As you are attempting to get access to the databases of MOB sites by issuing a rather worthless report, that makes your activity very close to phishing, though you would state that people are free to sign up.
Basicly you are no different from selling hot air as internet marketeer, hoping to use the list of mail adresses for profit. Nothing wrong with it, but lets make the target straight instead of blowing smoke,

Anyone who sign up to download the report will in short time receive an offer to join something, and Andrewfi hopes to gain a large sum from that.

[JR]

Lets make it clear. You need e-mail adresses of potential bride seekers for some reason.
The reason is not your decision to selflessley give out knowledge, as for that you would not need the data of other people.
This means there can be just one single reason, and that is you wish to gather internet adresses of bride seekers active on these forums, in order to gain profit from them, most probably by using them as referrals for an internet marketing system.

As you are attempting to get access to the databases of MOB sites by issuing a rather worthless report, that makes your activity very close to phishing, though you would state that people are free to sign up.
Basicly you are no different from selling hot air as internet marketeer, hoping to use the list of mail adresses for profit. Nothing wrong with it, but lets make the target straight instead of blowing smoke,

Anyone who sign up to download the report will in short time receive an offer to join something, ans Andrefi hopes to gain a large sum from that.

Can you say "Bingo"? I knew you could)))

[andrewfi]

Shadow, please do not allow your cynicism to overpower your cognitive powers.

You made an accusation that is untrue and, by definition, inaccurate. You enough about the internet to know that in order to communicate with an individual an address is required, just as it is if you want to receive printed material to your home.
You make the choice to receive, or not, the information I have chosen to share with you. I have no power over you in this regard and nor would I want it.

Modifying your accusation by adding later adding modifiers does not make the accusation any more true or less inaccurate.

Because it is MY choice to ask for an email address in order to send information to you that you have agreed to receive and because it is YOUR choice to ask for that information, or not, I will not deal with you or any other people on this issue.

If you wish to discuss the contents of the report then you will need to read the report. I hope that your fears of my hypnotic skills prove less strong than your wish to enagage in a sensible discussion of the issues facing the International Marriage Bureau Business because I am sure that there is something that you CAN add to the ongoing and growing discussion.

[Jumper]

I do think though that most service providers in the international niche need to address issues of transparency. It is my belief that various kinds of support ARE needed for most US based wife hunters but as I noted, trust has been well and truly broken. It is this insight that leads me to emphasize transparency. You are correct to note the increase in alternate communication methods but my research suggests that for some people, particularly women, some of the no/low cost methods preferred by American men are not appropriate.

I think many see the various forces Andrew,
and yes you know  I agree with your points as often as not.


I also believe you are angling somewhere ,, and there is nothing wrong with that.
if you were only wanting to share it,, you dont need to ask for emails you
 could have posted the info.
I do not fault you  at all trying to gain form your time and effort putting the material together.

 
as a potential customer i simply prefer a much more straight ahead marketing approach,with what value it would be to me ,beyond entertainment.

I thought i made i clear I as not giving you input on your points,
yes i think most are valid , I would not completely agree with how strong the various forces are percentage
wise ,but  few of us would agree completely in every detail.

I gave you my input on your marketing style, for whatever you are ultimately up to
 ( a new business model for connecting  people perhaps)

[Jooky]

Why not do the real job and deal with the content?

If you paid attention to my post, I did. I critiqued the presentation and the content. Both are important to getting your message across.

Regarding the content, there is simply not that much to review.

Again:

The premise I agree with. The Mail Order Bride business as we know it is dying or dead. The reasons are part what you point out, but mostly other factors.

I see nothing in your report that hasn't already been discussed at length on these forums.  I was expecting some new information and it's simply not there.

[facetrock]

  I agree with Andrew the MOB agencys are slowly croaking. No big news, its been in steady decline for years.
  But Andrew you certainly have to realize when you have all this info you say is "Free" and all we need to do to get it is give up our names and email address, well in my opinion that isnt quite free. With the nature of the internet today it really looks like a great way to get spammed. Thats my opinion and I would bet big money the majority here thinks the same.
  So if its free why do you need our names and emails? Why not just post the damn thing on your website for the whole world to see? Your doing this to help your fellow man right?

 One more thing. I have a suspicion growing this has something to do with HRB. Another poster mentioned it above and I am inclined to agree with him.

 Can you post here Andrew and tell us in no uncertain terms that your free report and email gathering has absolutely nothing to do with HRB now or in the future?

 

[I/O]

That would be interesting. (and i'd think Australia might  be climbing in percent )

AJ: I doubt the numbers exist in any one reliable source but the point was and is, I don't actually think USA is the entire centre of the universe for MOB's therefore the IMBRA thing only (if it even does that) effects American punters which may well be far from the whole story.......................

As for Australian percentages increasing, yep 100% increase this year, last year 1 came, this year 2 came hence the massive percentage increase. I suspect the overall MOB thing here has leveled or decreased if anything as during the 70's the Filipino thing was a pretty heady deal. Every second bushman seemed to be wandering around with one and a string of khaki kids a mile long.  These days the whole Asian MOB thing seems to be 4/5ths of bugger all here. The Russian thing may have increased but I'd be highly doubtful if we form any significant number in the bigger scheme of things. Mrs and I have met perhaps 1/2 dozen or so RW / AuM couples over the past few years. Some of them are out of the MOB scene and some aren't.

BTW, I define MOB as (at least but not limited to) someone using an agency and or a public profile on an international flavoured introduction site.

[Gator]

I don't actually think USA is the entire centre of the universe for MOB's therefore the IMBRA thing only (if it even does that) effects American punters which may well be far from the whole story.......................

Exactly.

This is contrary to both Andrew's intellect and sentiment.   Andrewfi is too smart to have missed that fact.   And over the years at RWG he displayed a subtle tendency to belittle Yanks vs. his beloved Europeans.   

Maybe his data show that Yanks, because of their stupidity, account for the vast amount of sales at HRB, et al vs. the tightassed Ozzie and Euro men plus the men from Turkey, Arabic countries, etc.  Thus, a decline in the American segment of HRB's business would have a major negative impact.  Just speculation on my part.

[BillyB]

The industry isn't dead yet but it is near death's door. Two things are killing it IMBRA and the economy.

As long as there is a shortage of quality FSU men, there will always be FSU women willing to look elsewhere regardless of economy. Some American women can't find a man and they look elsewhere. IMBRA will try to kill the industry because they want to force us accused criminals to stay home and marry manly girls(feminists)

Andrew. I too have my thoughts that passing out my email will in turn be sold and as a result, I will have tons of junk mail. If your goals are to truly help others, you need to understand our concerns and maybe it's best you start a thread with your ongoing report in the open. If this isn't about money for certain people who follow the special rules, then spend a few extra seconds to cut and paste your report at the forum for a hundred to read than spend hours to cut and paste your report  and send occasional updates for each and every individual in emails.

[Shadow]

Shadow, please do not allow your cynicism to overpower your cognitive powers.

You made an accusation that is untrue and, by definition, inaccurate. You enough about the internet to know that in order to communicate with an individual an address is required, just as it is if you want to receive printed material to your home.
You make the choice to receive, or not, the information I have chosen to share with you. I have no power over you in this regard and nor would I want it.

Modifying your accusation by adding later adding modifiers does not make the accusation any more true or less inaccurate.

Because it is MY choice to ask for an email address in order to send information to you that you have agreed to receive and because it is YOUR choice to ask for that information, or not, I will not deal with you or any other people on this issue.

If you wish to discuss the contents of the report then you will need to read the report. I hope that your fears of my hypnotic skills prove less strong than your wish to enagage in a sensible discussion of the issues facing the International Marriage Bureau Business because I am sure that there is something that you CAN add to the ongoing and growing discussion.

Andrew, I know exactly what you are up to. You have offered someone $1 for every e-mail address that he can provide. This would only be done if you expect to earn at least the $1 back.
You can blow smoke as much as you like, but I know exactly what you want to achieve and what the e-mail adresses will be used for. Your "report" was made with the thought to collect as many as possible.

You are using tlvsecurelist, a well known internet marketeer program for collecting mails and using them to send spam later on. The most funny is that those who register are named "affiliates", which implies the possiblity of them recruiting further candidates, for which you offer to pay $1 per registered subscriber.

The report itself is a standard internet marketing work of 20 pages, with a shocking opening and at the end a promise to get something interesting in the future. The content, as already told by others, is nothing that people can not find by readong forums.

As there is nowhere any restriction against publication or spreading the report, anyone who wishes to read the report can use the attachment.

[I/O]

Amway anyone? Desperate times and all that..................