"The Russian Bride Business Is Dead" ? Really?

[tim 360]

It really doesn't matter. If the 'supply' is there, agencies will adapt. If the 'supply' is gone, agencies will shut down. For the serious guy, most agencies and sites as they are run today serve as more of an obstacle anyways.

Zactly.  This is what successful businesses do--they adapt to changing times.  The smart businesses will adapt and the not-so-smart will sputter and die by the wayside.  As long as you have a product to sell--there is a way to do it.  Chicken Little:  The sky is not falling.

[JR]

For the record I'm a member of Elena's and Lucky lovers. I have never been required to complete any IMBRA declaration.

I have contacted several women on EM that reside in the US and I had to accept their IMBRA information before I could contact them.

And as I recall I had to fill one out when I joined.

[GQBlues]

When all is said and done, compliance is painless.

The whole spat about diminishing rights to privacy is mostly spurred by folks with something to hide - fed by agency owners scared of losing their business. Just like when the smoking ban in restaurants first came to light. When that law first came into effect, they found out because *the stench that hung along rafters* before was gone, business actually increased on average.

[Bruno]

I also agree with Bruno, however if laws require men to get fingerprinted before even signing up for a site, agencies that rely on US customers will lose more than 20% of their customers. Closer to 90% would be my guess.

Let see a simple example... long time ago, US have request from EU that EU international passport was made with biometric data... Europe have choose to add fingerprint in these data ( fingerprint was not requested by US )... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biometric_passport#Types

To my knowledge, these new fingerprint thing have not reduce the request for passport or reduce the level of international traffic in the airport... in fact, the real challenges for  air traffic is to control the grow...

So, International passport with fingerprint have not reduce the amount of international travel... i bet that fingerprint in case of foreign dating will not reduce greatly the amount of US guy wishing seek a foreign bride...

Maybe Dan can make a poll for have some statistical data : US guys, if tomorrow you need to be fingerprinted before seeking a foreign bride, what will you do :
- picture 1 below : remain in US and marry a fat US feminazi
- picture 2 below : be fingerprinted and go buy in a foreign country a young educated sexy mail order bride

  really a difficult choice !!!

[Admin]

First, it needs to be understood that IMBRA is aimed at the businesses - the International Marriage Brokers such as AFA and Elena's Models (and the smaller ones as well). The penalties for failing to follow IMBRA accrue to those IMBs, and allow for both civil and criminal prosecution.

My best guess (FWIW) is that when the US authorities file their first case or two to prosecute an IMB for failing to abide by IMBRA, it will send a chill through the IMB owners that will give them VERY serious pause. The potential liabilities for engaging in this business will begin to become *real* and they will have to give those liabilities very serious consideration. A fairly large number of agency/IMB owners have already felt threatened enough by IMBRA that they closed their businesses - and that is before (long before) a single enforcement action was initiated. An IMB owner facing prosecution by federal authorities is looking at a nightmare in the cost of defense - so much that it is hard for me to imagine that IMB surviving as a business.

To some extent, one might look at IMBRA as forming an entry barrier to new agencies/IMBs entering the business. Most businesses have entry barriers of various sorts, and those tend to discourage new entrants unless the barriers can be overcome.

The other entry barriers, I suppose, are the source of profiles along with the time it takes to establish an internet presence.

In terms of sourcing profiles, the very large IMBs seem to now be utilizing small local agencies - something that I believe was first developed by the Angelika network when Larry Gucciardi was still involved. He was one of those who assessed the liabilities resulting from IMBRA and decided to opt-out. Having said that - this is my understanding of the timing and events, and I may be wrong. If anyone has direct contact with Larry and would like to ask him here to clarify, that would be most welcome.

Back to the topic of profiles and their sourcing. It seems like the Achilles Heel for the large IMBs is the feeder/affiliate networks. We see a lot of commentary recently about the large mega-IMBs acting as consolidators and being unable to effectively control/manage the behaviors of their many different small affiliates spread throughout the FSU. That being the case, it will be interesting to see how these consolidators fare if THEY are the ones implicated in an IMBRA enforcement action.

More and more I am seeing just how difficult it would be for the large IMB owners to manage these affiliates and to protect themselves from the consequences of those affiliate's behaviors. Billy B mentioned treating them similarly to how a general contractor on a large construction project manages smaller subcontractors - and I see the parallel, while also seeing the geographic and logistic differences in this business model.

OK - all of this is focused on the IMB. I'll give some thought to writing up the consequences that might accrue to the individual clientele - as there are some, and there are plans for more.

- Dan

[Maxx2]

First, it needs to be understood that IMBRA is aimed at the businesses - the International Marriage Brokers such as AFA and Elena's Models (and the smaller ones as well). The penalties for failing to follow IMBRA accrue to those IMBs, and allow for both civil and criminal prosecution.

My best guess (FWIW) is that when the US authorities file their first case or two to prosecute an IMB for failing to abide by IMBRA, it will send a chill through the IMB owners that will give them VERY serious pause. The potential liabilities for engaging in this business will begin to become *real* and they will have to give those liabilities very serious consideration. A fairly large number of agency/IMB owners have already felt threatened enough by IMBRA that they closed their businesses - and that is before (long before) a single enforcement action was initiated. An IMB owner facing prosecution by federal authorities is looking at a nightmare in the cost of defense - so much that it is hard for me to imagine that IMB surviving as a business.

Each on of these boxes is packed with legal documents from the lawsuit against Encounters International for the court's judgement of failure to provide a proper background check on James Fox. James Fox had a spotless record with nothing more than a speeding ticket when he married Natalia Fox. Yet since Natasha Spivak failed to interview his ex wife, a schizophrenic institutionalized mental patient and an disgruntled ex-fiancee and get their statements about him it was determined that she was guilty of failure to provide a proper background check. The cost to her was $433,000 in the lawsuit judgment (with interest) plus her more than $300,000 in legal fees she spent.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEyT04GR9zY[/youtube]
 

[tfcrew]

The Fox case was also discussed here..

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=12711

[Maxx2]

The Fox case was also discussed here..

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=12711

There is much more to this case than what is presented to the public by the special interests.

[Jooky]

Thanks Dan,

Your post is far more informative (and probably longer) than Andrew's entire 'report'.

It seems to me the big dilemna for 'IMBs' is being held responsible for the actions (or lack thereof) of their contracted affiliates.

The most obvious solution for IMBs, in my opinion, is for them to restructure so that they are not legally IMBs and are thus exempt from IMBRA. Let's say IMBs did this and technically they ceased to exist (so they became agencies / sites that provided equal costs to all customers and didn't focus on international matches). Would this satisfy the proponents of IMBRA, or would they then seek to target a wider range of services?

What's the ultimate goal of the proponents of IMBRA? Do they seek to shut down 'Marriage Brokers' because they create an unequal situation where women can be taken advantage of (in their view)? Or do they seek to go beyond that and prevent international matches entirely?

[Jooky]

Maybe Dan can make a poll for have some statistical data : US guys, if tomorrow you need to be fingerprinted before seeking a foreign bride, what will you do :
- picture 1 below : remain in US and marry a fat US feminazi
- picture 2 below : be fingerprinted and go buy in a foreign country a young educated sexy mail order bride

  really a difficult choice !!!

Funny, but not true. A more realistic comparison would be something like this:

- 1 : step up your game so you can chase some US sorority type girls
http://www.uncoached.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/ucla_kappas_4.jpg

- 2: get fingerprinted and pay a few thousand bucks for your chance with some Ukrainian girls rounded up by an agency
http://www.loveme.com/tour/photos/2010-Ukraine-Women-March/index.html

And I actually do think there are a higher percentage of beautiful girls, for my tastes, in Russia than in the US, but it's not that much of a difference.

[Steamer]

What's the ultimate goal of the proponents of IMBRA? Do they seek to shut down 'Marriage Brokers' because they create an unequal situation where women can be taken advantage of (in their view)? Or do they seek to go beyond that and prevent international matches entirely?

IMHO it's about controlling men. If they were concerned about creating an equal situation for women you'd think this would also apply to local dating sites. We have found a way around the domination of AW and they cannot stand this and will stop it at all costs.

And just because this is paranoid thinking doesn't mean that feminists are not out to get us. Long live the revolution!

[Boethius]

IMHO it's about controlling men. If they were concerned about creating an equal situation for women you'd think this would also apply to local dating sites. We have found a way around the domination of AW and they cannot stand this and will stop it at all costs.

And just because this is paranoid thinking doesn't mean that feminists are not out to get us. Long live the revolution!

It has nothing, zero, to do with controlling men.  IMBRA was enacted after 3 very high profile murders of foreign brides.  In two of those cases, the husbands had previous records for domestic abuse.  

American women have the opportunity to investigate men they are dating.  They are also familiar with the cultural cues, and will know when behaviour is aberrant according to American standards.

If feminists controlled the world as much as you claimed, half of America's politicians would be women, half of Fortune 500 companies would be run by women, half of the judges would be women, and half of all homemakers would be men.

[Vinnvinny]

Completely agree with Boethius. If matters were in reverse and one American lady emigrated and suffered sexual abuse from her FSU husband then the whole of the USA would be united in calling for similar laws to be enacted in Moscow, Kiev etc.

One distant observation I have is that Americans are very insular in their thinking until matters arrive on their own doorstep. There are many examples of this.

[I/O]

Analysis of statistics can be tricky.

Sure can.

Now to your point (I think - please correct if I missed it), there is some wide variability in the number of K-visas issued from year to year as seen if I add % change to the table:

2000 - 23,671 - baseline (for these purposes)
2001 - 27,121 - 15% growth
2002 - 37,330 - 38% growth
2003 - 44,029 - 18% growth
2004 - 55,178 - 25% growth
2005 - 58,374 - 6% growth
2006 - 53,378 - 9% decline
2007 - 57,002 - 7% growth
2008 - 50,557 - 11% decline
2009 - 47,524 - 6% decline

Calcluated another way, you can make that look like 140% variance on the baseline year 2000. Nevertheless, that's just playing with figures for the sake of it. What strikes me is the more than doubling of the number in 5 years (2000-2004) when the overall popluation growth is what? Low single digits?

[wicheese]

If feminists controlled the world as much as you claimed, half of America's politicians would be women, half of Fortune 500 companies would be run by women, half of the judges would be women, and half of all homemakers would be men.

I would disagree as it would not be half, but almost all in each of the cases.  

[Admin]

Sure can.
Calcluated another way, you can make that look like 140% variance on the baseline year 2000. Neverheless, that's just playing with figures for the sake of it. What strikes me is the more than doubling of the number in 5 years (2000-2004) when the overall popluation growth is what? Low single digits?

Perhaps the more telling stats are these:

K-visas in:

1985: 7,807
1990: 7,218
1995: 8,561
2000: 23,671

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)?

Guesses anyone?

- Dan

[I/O]

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)? Guesses anyone?

I'll play...............(caveat is "guess") air ticket prices reduced and internet usage increased.

Edit later: Did the later repatriation of US troops post the first Gulf war have any influence on this?

[Admin]

IMHO it's about controlling men. If they were concerned about creating an equal situation for women you'd think this would also apply to local dating sites. We have found a way around the domination of AW and they cannot stand this and will stop it at all costs.

And just because this is paranoid thinking doesn't mean that feminists are not out to get us. Long live the revolution!

I know there is a tendency to ascribe malicious intent to the authors/originators of IMBRA. IMO, to do so is to be guilty of the same knee-jerk reaction that undoubtedly eased the passage of IMBRA - if not facilitated it altogether.

Taking Tahirih Justice Center as perhaps the most visible focal point for IMBRA - I've spent time with several of the folks from Tahirih, and found them to be sincere, intelligent, and genuinely driven to achieve their organization's Mission. Further, as the father of a young daughter, I find their Mission commendable and have no problem at all stating my active support for the organization generally. None of which is to say that I support IMBRA or that I will not seek to make important changes to the legislation.

To suggest that IMBRA is part of a misandrist campaign to control men would be, IMO, to grossly underestimate the people (both men and women) who have played a part in the IMBRA legislation.

My belief is that IMBRA's authors are well-meaning, and they sincerely want to find an effective mechanism to better protect immigrant women from the types of well-publicized abuses seen in the Indle King case (among others). My interactions with TJC have never given me any reason to believe they are either misandrist in their policy or belief - nor are they unreasonable about listening to alternatives to achieve their objectives.

Having said THAT - I also expect that the politicos that played a role in passing IMBRA are certainly not above taking advantage of a sensational media to achieve their personal and political aims - nor is TJC 'too good' to fail to take advantage of the fund-raising opportunities presented by IMBRA and the same sensational press the politicos have availed themselves.

While I have absolutely NOTHING to defend my position on this next point (aside from common sense) - I *do* believe there is an instinctive resistance on the part of AW when they learn that AM prefer to find a partner in a foreign country. I doubt this can ever be measured or even defined with great certainty - but there is the fact of natural human reaction when feeling rejected (for any reason), as well as the influences of millennia of years of conditioning that encourages reasonably close geographical mating.

All these things, and more, are a part of the motivations behind IMBRA (IMO) - and to be effective with opposition of IMBRA, it will be necessary to deal with the objections - both of real issues, as well as those that are more difficult to get to come to the surface.

- Dan

[Manny]

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)?

Desperation in the FSU happened.

Those were the "glory years" any old goat could marry a smokin' hot 18 year old.

As we know, those days have gone, and the "forum icons" of yesteryear that encouraged many, are either publicly divorced or quietly divorced mysteriously silent now.

[Jack]

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)?

Guesses anyone?

- Dan

The introduction of the i-net to the pursuit for a Russian bride in late 1997.

[Steamer]

My belief is that IMBRA's authors are well-meaning, and they sincerely want to find an effective mechanism to better protect immigrant women from the types of well-publicized abuses seen in the Indle King case (among others). My interactions with TJC have never given me any reason to believe they are either misandrist in their policy or belief - nor are they unreasonable about listening to alternatives to achieve their objectives.

Well if you're just gonna sit here and make sense then I'm going to put on my rubber duck feet and tin foil hat and waddle over to the next subject.

[acctBill]

Completely agree with Boethius. If matters were in reverse and one American lady emigrated and suffered sexual abuse from her FSU husband then the whole of the USA would be united in calling for similar laws to be enacted in Moscow, Kiev etc.

One distant observation I have is that Americans are very insular in their thinking until matters arrive on their own doorstep. There are many examples of this.

Vinny has you been to the FSU?  Had conversations with FSUW or EU/American women who lived in the FSU?  I personally know of a couple of cases when a EU woman has been abused by her Russian husband, it doesn't make the news in Russia or the EU.  No one in the EU has called for Russia or Ukraine to enact IMBRA like laws.  

You mentioned an American woman being abused by her Russian husband in Russia? Look at the link.  Have you heard the people who were pushing for the IMBRA laws, calling for Russia to enact IMBRA like laws?  I haven't.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/29/uttm/main652224.shtml

[JohnDearGreen]

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)?

1998 economic collapse probably led many to look for greener pasture.

[tfcrew]

Quote from: Admin on Today at 07:38:41 PM

What happened between 1995 (or thereabouts) and 2000 that led to a 300% increase (approximately)? Guesses anyone?

The introduction of the i-net  to the pursuit for a Russian bride in late 1997. 

& by 2000 there must have been umpteen dozens of amateur matchmaking enterprises in Europe, Asia and Latin America.



 

 

[Jooky]

What strikes me is the more than doubling of the number in 5 years (2000-2004)

I/O, from the tables it appears that the K-3 non-immigrant spouse visa was introduced in 2000. That would explain an increase in overall K visas as a shift from an immigrant spousal visa to the non-immigrant version.

K Visas from 1989-2009

K-1 Fiance(e) of U.S. citizen   
6,268   
6,341   
6,060   
6,977   
7,893   
7,903   
8,926   
8,469   
9,108   
10,502   
12,088   
12,968   
17,025   
21,471   
24,973   
28,338   
25,304   
29,658   
33,910   
30,575   
33,190   
30,288   
27,679

K-2 Child of fiance(e) of U.S. citizen   
797   
741   
621   
692   
749   
748   
838   
743   
895   
1,095   
1,367   
1,499   
2,431   
3,275   
3,735   
4,298   
3,752   
4,694   
5,308   
5,013   
5,455   
5,013   
4,188

K-3 Spouse of U.S. citizen awaiting availability of immigrant visa   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
-   
3   
5,078   
12,403   
13,623   
11,312   
10,341   
9,816   
7,854   
7,210

If we're talking about just Russia and Ukraine, here is the pattern of K-1 visas:

Russia
1997    747   
1998   816   
1999   1189   
2000   1666   
2001   1844   
2002   1488   
2003   1559   
2004   1687   
2005   1477   
2006    1420   
2007   1340   
2008   945   
2009   775   

Ukraine
1997   282   
1998   478   
1999   849   
2000   1063   
2001   1115   
2002   1388   
2003   998   
2004   1205   
2005   1179   
2006   908   
2007   930   
2008   743   
2009   689   

You can compare with Great Britain / Ireland where there is no bride business:

UK
1997   537   
1998   617   
1999   813   
2000   928   
2001   927   
2002   1020   
2003   918   
2004   1031   
2005   987   
2006   879   
2007   881   
2008   784   
2009   771   

Also of interest, the statistics for immigrant spouse visas
(includes conditional visas)
1992   62107   
1993   74735   
1994   77390   
1995   47724   
1996   52292   
1997   57482   
1998   44113   
1999   49369   
2000   54106      
2001   59473   
2002   54179   
2003   46392   
2004   43553   
2005   52766   
2006   55252   
2007   61951   
2008   75527   
2009   75839

Without knowing what percent of visas can be attribute to IMBs, we can only speculate what the numbers mean in regards to this discussion.

One thing is for sure though, the matching of Americans and Russians / Ukrainians results in less than 1500 marriages per year these days. Even if marriage brokers reaped a profit of $1000 per couple, the gross would be $1.5 million, enough to run one small company. That's being very generous with the numbers. I'd bet the actual amount of cash spent on marriage brokers per year by actual men that get married isn't enough to pay one CEO's salary.

The real money in the marriage business isn't in the marriages, it's in the fantasy.