2.2 Russians are missing!

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

2.2 million missing Russians are missing!

From the census, that is. In bad news for a country working hard to reverse a population decline, the numbers from the 2010 Russian Federation census are out and the numbers don't look look good for the largest geographical country on the face of the earth.

Russia has a lot of things going for it: The largest freshwater lake in the world (Lake Baikal holds more water than all the US “Great Lakes” put together), the country spans 11 times zones and possesses abundant natural resources including almost all the minerals in the periodic table (thanks to our namesake Dmitry Mendeleyev for that handy table!), boasts the 11th largest city in the world with Moscow's bustling 15 million population, and is home to Mount Elbrus, the tallest mountain in Europe with no less than 7 active volcanos spread over it’s summit.

Cities like Moscow grew but the biggest population decrease was recorded in the far East with most of the loss accounted for ethnic Siberians migrating to China. The data is still preliminary but it seems that the census counted just under 143 million as compared to the 2002 census figure of 145 million, a loss of 1.6 percent. Government officials are likely to find a nugget of good news in that the rate of decrease is slowing from previous decades.

Meanwhile, it is official: women outnumber men by millions in Russia. That is likely good news for International marriage agencies who like to tout that claim to male bride seekers, much to the chagrin of those who chafe over the population loss of young women who marry and leave for other countries.

The 2010 census cost the state nearly 17 billion rubles ($600 million) just in case anyone is counting (pun intended). Officials say that the continued decline was due to natural loss of population (more deaths than births) during the period measured.


Mendeleyev Publishers note: Those who like to study this type of data will find this spreadsheet of interest. http://rg.ru/img/content/46/88/30/5440_2.gif

[Ade]

Meanwhile, it is official: women outnumber men by millions in Russia. That is likely good news for International marriage agencies who like to tout that claim to male bride seekers, much to the chagrin of those who chafe over the population loss of young women who marry and leave for other countries.

Is there a breakdown on the male to female ratio across age groups in this new census?

Previous statistic have shown that although there is a quite large female to male disparity, it is almost all in the above 50 age group and, in the below 25 age group, there are actually more men than women.

[BC]

Isn't there a large difference between 'official' and 'unofficial' population count for Moscow? This number seems pretty close..  Maybe they did not want to be counted..

[SANDRO43]

The title of this thread led me to think that 2 Russians and maybe a leg were missing .

[Shostakovich]

The data is still preliminary but it seems that the census counted just under 143 million as compared to the 2002 census figure of 145 million, a loss of 1.6 percent. Government officials are likely to find a nugget of good news in that the rate of decrease is slowing from previous decades.

This is consistent with projections of population that predict a 120M population for Russia in 2050.  But this seems to be true for much of European population, even with good economies.

in Millions
Country    1940   2000  2050
US            132     278    394
Russia       110     146    122
Ukraine     31.5    49.2   39.1
UK           48.2     59.5  54.1
Germany   70.7     82.8  57.4
France      39       59.3  58.2

Look at India though
               316      1,014   1,707

http://populstat.info/

http://www.populstat.info/Europe/russiac.htm

[mendeleyev]

Sandro, that should have been 2.2 million. Sorry.

Of course that would have indicated a lot more missing legs! 

[mendeleyev]

SeriouslyJaded, that is an excellent point. As this data release is the first of many over the coming months, the primary breakdown so far was of total population which is listed as 76.7 million females to 66.2 males (see data below).

(Mendeleyev correction: Sorry the numbers above have been corrected. The correct numbers are 66.2 million males to 76.7 females.)

Of great interest will be the future release of detailed actuary statistics. Currently as in many other societies, Russian males have an average lifespan much shorter than females. According to the 2002 census the average lifespan for males was 58 years.

Good news for Russian men: they're living longer and an improvement in economic conditions is one likely contributing factor.

2010 Data:
Life expectancy: 68.98 years  
–male: 63.03 years (a 5 year increase from 2002 data)
–female: 74.87 years

Fertility rate: 1.54 children per mother
Infant mortality rate: 7.5 deaths/1,000 live births (2010)
Net migration rate: 1.11 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2010)

[mendeleyev]

Isn't there a large difference between 'official' and 'unofficial' population count for Moscow? This number seems pretty close..  Maybe they did not want to be counted..

BC, good observation. One of the reasons for the cost of this census included special earmarks for finding ways to count Moscow's illegal population. Westerers were invited to participate via English announcments and website, but more importantly specially trained Muslim census workers were employed to count the population that typically lives "in the shadows" whether they're from the Caucasus, Siberia, the far East or from one of the "Stans" who flock to Moscow for jobs.

[mendeleyev]

Certain republics are harder to count also. An example is Tatarstan, which has one of the highest levels of autonomy of any of the Federation Republics. Census takers there did not have permission to go "door to door" but instead were required in most cases to meet with tribal leaders to receive statistics on each family represented.

The Tatarstan problem is one of mistrust and perception in regards to the question of Tatar nationality. Local officials are of the suspicion that Moscow wishes to divide the Tatar nation into several separate ethnic groups, thereby making it appear as if ethnic Tatars make up less than 50% of Tatarstan's population. This would directly effect the makeup of local political representation, including the ethnicity of the person Moscow "nominates" (appoints) as President of Tatarstan.

Several other republics in the far East presented similar challenges in obtaining an accurate count.

[mendeleyev]

Readers may find it interesting to see the preparation that Russia undertook when the census began. This report from the Mendeleyev Journal from October 19 of last year tells the story (complete with photos) of President Medvedev and first lady Svetlana Medvedeva welcoming a young census taker into their official presidential residence in Gorki. Link: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/russia-begins-taking-the-2010-census/

Census worker Anastasia Fedorova sat down at the dining table for tea & pastries and the first family began the census process for all of Russia. In that story we learned that the first family consists of 3 persons including 15 year old son Ilya Medvedev, a lot of fish, and one cat. The President finds fish to be very relaxing and personally maintains a large aquarium in his office. The family cat, a male named Dorofei, used to fight with a cat belonging to neighbor Mikhail Gorbachev, so he had to be neutered. While the young Ms. Federova may have needed extra space on census forms to report all the fish, at least there is no worry of little versions of Dorofei appearing before the next census.

Link: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2010/10/19/russia-begins-taking-the-2010-census/

[tfcrew]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

  The largest freshwater lake in the world (Lake Baikal holds more water than all the US “Great Lakes” put together)

I looked that up... Fascinating!
50 miles wide X 400 mi long with a depth going over a mile in parts.
That is a load of water.
As a sideline....

Proposed nuclear plant

In 2006, the Russian government announced plans to build the world's first International Uranium Enrichment Centre at an existing nuclear facility in Angarsk, 95 km (59 mi) from the lake's shores. However, critics argue it would be a disaster for the region and are urging the government to reconsider.[42]

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Baikal

[acctBill]

The 2010 census cost the state nearly 17 billion rubles ($600 million) just in case anyone is counting (pun intended). Officials say that the continued decline was due to natural loss of population (more deaths than births) during the period measured.


Mendeleyev Publishers note: Those who like to study this type of data will find this spreadsheet of interest. http://rg.ru/img/content/46/88/30/5440_2.gif

Mendeleyev I don't know if the low birth rate alone explains the lower Russian population.  My wife and I have lived in several places in Europe and travelled through most of the countries.  We've heard the Russian language (and other FSU languages) spoken all over western and central Europe.  Germany and the UK are probably two of the bigger concentrations of the Russian diaspora.  Italy, France and Spain are also very popular locations for Russian emigrants.  Prior to the economic downturn I believe Spain and Portugal were actually recruiting FSU citizens due to the shortages of labours (male and female) in the two countries.  This is just the legal immigration.  There are also tens of thousands, some say hundreds of thousands, of illegal FSU citizens living and working in Europe.   

[Chicagoguy]

My wife finds them EVERYWHERE we go in the U.S.

[mendeleyev]

Tfcrew, scientists say it is the oldest lake in the world. Baikal grows enough each year that international geophysicists call it a very young ocean. Terribly polluted due to Soviet factories in nearby towns, the lake has been making a slow recovery.

I love this lake and the variety of wildlife. 12 hours is how long it takes to go by large/modern hydrofoil boat from one end of Lake Baikal to the other end, north to south. Weather permitting there are two such trips each day with several scheduled stops for fuel and picking up passengers. This region is served by the Trans Mongolian line of the larger Trans Siberian Railway, and Irkutsk is the main regional hub.

It is home to the only variety of freshwater seals in the world, called the "Nerpa" seal. Of the over 1700 types of animal life found in and around the Lake, two-thirds cannot be found anywhere else in the world. Ice roads are built in winter as Baikal is in Siberia. Russian engineers in the past even experimented with winter rails across ice sections.

Cold in summer too, yet snakes can be found in the brush along the banks. The most common variety of fish, Omul, are smoked & salted and then split open. You can eat them like that or fill the cavity with mayo based salad fillings similar to how Russians like to fill a baked potato.

Baikal gets regular visits from environmental protesters many organized by GreenPeace.

(protest photos: sarumian)

[mendeleyev]

Mendeleyev, I don't know if the low birth rate alone explains the lower Russian population.

Your thinking is very valid.

[SANDRO43]

Ice roads are built in winter as Baikal is in Siberia. Russian engineers in the past even experimented with winter rails across ice sections.

Based on experiences from the siege of Leningrad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_of_Life) ?

[mendeleyev]

Based on experiences from the siege of Leningrad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_of_Life) ?

Sandro, what an incredible story that was!

As to the rail over Lake Baikal ice experiments I believe that those were conducted at the time that the Trans Siberian was being built in that area, specifically construction of the Circum-Baikal line that was begun in the very early 1900s, a decade or so before the revolution so Nikolas II would have been Tsar.

Some cool links:
http://www.trans-siberian.su/baikal-amur.php



The water is cold year-round:

A really cool 5 minute visit of the lake and surrounding villages:

[wicheese]

Terribly polluted due to Soviet factories in nearby towns, the lake has been making a slow recovery.

Mendy,

I thought the recovery was in jeopardy due to the fact that Putin had allowed several of the largest polluters in Irkutsk to start production again?


Also, related to the census, I think the gender gap (in total numbers) widens as the population age as this would be exhibited by the the difference in average life expectancy.  But, I'm sure there will be a few service providers to say that there was millions of extra women available without noting that vast majority are above the age of 50.

[mendeleyev]

A really cool 5 minute visit of the lake and surrounding villages:

I should add that the music so beautifully played in the background of this video will remind readers of the movie Ирония судьбы, или С лёгким паром! (The Irony of Fate, or Enjoy Your Bath!). Millions of Ukrianian and Russian families watch the movie every year as a New Year's Eve tradition. If in the FSU over that holiday, you can't miss it--it will be on TV New Year's Eve.

Watch the movie with scrolling English subtitles at the Mendeleyev Journal: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/russian-movies-%d0%ba%d0%b8%d0%bd%d0%be%d1%84%d0%b8%d0%bb%d1%8c%d0%bc%d1%8b/the-irony-of-fate/

[chivo]

If you want to talk pure numbers then yes the majority of women are over 50.

But this is just another case where statistics don't tell the whole story. The fact of the matter is the number of quality 'eligible" men in the 18-40 group compare to the number of quality women isn't even close. Especially as you move towards the 25-35 year old group.

Somehow this fact always gets lost in these discussions. I know so many women in this group who are single and looking that its mindboggling. I should start my own agency . Most of the men I know, and I know plenty of them as well, are married. All of these men I would put in the "eligible" group.

Believe what you want, I know what I've seen and been dealing with for the last 7 years living in 3 different cities in Russia. Yes the agency hype is misleading in some respects, but this one isn't that far off the mark IMO.

[mendeleyev]

I thought the recovery was in jeopardy due to the fact that Putin had allowed several of the largest polluters in Irkutsk to start production again?

Definitely in jeopardy as you say. Right now that is one of the most busy areas for citizen protests because of those issues.

President Medvedev earlier this month visited one of the metals plants and for all intents and purposes, plant management made a good show of operating a very clean/safe facility. The president has taken a lot of heat over executive decree #1 of 2010 that allowed the Baikalsk cellulose plant to reopen in January 2010, two years after being closed because of environmental concerns.

Great concern revolves around the southern region of Lake Baikal where the Selenga River flows across the border of Mongolia into Russia en route to Lake Baikal. The Selenga provides a large percentage, over 50%, of Baikal’s inflow and thus presents a potential trans-boundary pollution issue as Mongolia is rapidly increasing the number and size of industrial plants along the river.

Prime Minister Putin's pet project at Baikal is the ESPO (East Siberia Pacific Ocean) oil pipeline which was designed to sit less than a km (within 800 meters at some points) of the water basin of Lake Baikal. As this is a known earthquake zone with active faults, there is real fear of oil spills from the pipeline in the event of a serious quake. Protesters have been joined by an impressive list of Russian scientists who would like to have the pipeline located out of that basin.

Also, related to the census, I think the gender gap (in total numbers) widens as the population age as this would be exhibited by the the difference in average life expectancy.  But, I'm sure there will be a few service providers to say that there was millions of extra women available without noting that vast majority are above the age of 50.

The agencies will make it fit their sales pitch to be sure.

But to confirm Chivo's point one only has to watch the behaviour of RM. They have the luxury of considering a 30+ year old female (many of whom are drop dead gorgeous) as an old maid--a cast-off worthy of only the occasional fling in the hay, if even that. Were there no choices, RM would change their attitudes quickly towards their 30+ native sisters.

The only difference between a RM and WM is that the typical RM understands that a 20 something is good for many things--but "wife" is usually not yet on that list. WM are sometimes forced to experience a far-reaching mistake to learn what RM already know.

That is just my take on the age issue.

[Gator]

But to confirm Chivo's point one only has to watch the behaviour of RM. They have the luxury of considering a 30+ year old female (many of whom are drop dead gorgeous) as an old maid--a cast-off worthy of only the occasional fling in the hay, if even that. Were there no choices, RM would change their attitudes quickly towards their 30+ native sisters.

I have heard this so many times from RW in their 30s.  Why is it true?  It suggests that a high percentage of 20-something RM are without women because their female peers are "dating" older RM.  I presume this is all about money (e. g., sponsorships).   Maybe the 20-something RM are involved with older RW (or competing with BillyB for teenagers ).

The only difference between a RM and WM is that the typical RM understands that a 20 something is good for many things--but "wife" is usually not yet on that list. WM are sometimes forced to experience a far-reaching mistake to learn what RM already know.

Object!  Bridal agency hype says that 20-something RW are great women who want only a "good family man better looking than a monkey" because RM are alcoholics, abusive and squander family money on gambling and mistresses.   Are you implying that the RW may also be culpable in a divorce?  [insert facetious/sarcasm smiley] 

Now, to be serious.  You wrote "That is just my take on the age issue."  And you have a lot of experience as an intelligent observer.  Do a significant percentage of 20-something RW lack the maturity or whatever  to be a wife in Rusian society? 

[Jack]

Mendy the decline in Russia's population has been well documented and expected.

Do you recall a few years ago when Putin was offering so many hundreds of thousands rubles for each child a woman had?  Some Russian women had figured if they had three children they would receive enough money to buy their own home.  I am curious Mendy as to if you heard about this program and know if it actually did get started.

The one fact that you have offered here that I find remarkable, I knew the difference had improved by not by so much, so quickly, was the average life span of the average Russian man.

Five years age the average Russian man lived to be 57.3 or there about. The average Russian woman, 73.  It was the largest difference of average life between man and woman of all countries in the world. 

With this new figure you have educated us to, 63.03 average life of Russian man, what a remarkable, sizeable increase in five short years.

This is a sign that life is getting better, not quite as difficult or dangerous as in the past, fewer regional conflicts, and one must assume, less alcoholism.

[mendeleyev]

Jack, you are right on the money. It seems that for us men, there is a great despair and sense of hopelessness, when we can't provide for our families and ourselves. The rate of alcohol abuse, especially in a country where vodka is the "water of choice" has declined as well.

As you suggest, these numbers reflect the story that those incredible economic realities of the late 90s-early 2000s have steadily improved, bringing hope to everyone and especially the male population.

[Misha]

But this is just another case where statistics don't tell the whole story. The fact of the matter is the number of quality 'eligible" men in the 18-40 group compare to the number of quality women isn't even close. Especially as you move towards the 25-35 year old group.

Somehow this fact always gets lost in these discussions. I know so many women in this group who are single and looking that its mindboggling.

I believe that I pointed this out more than a few times myself  The simple fact of the matter is that just because a 25-year-old is alive, does not mean that he will be considered eligible by all or even most women. On of my wife's mother's friends tried to set her up with her son. However, my wife quickly  came to the conclusion that he was an alcoholic and he was in his late twenties....

Sure, many men are physically present and still alive in Russia, but will be ruled out by many women as potential partners because of a variety of reasons including alcohol abuse, drug abuse, unemployed, etc....