<tit>
THE OUTCOME HAS BEEN DECLARED
<aut>Mikhail Delyagin
<src>Vedomosti, February 15, 2006, p. A4
<sum>The strike on Iran and high oil prices will create strategic threats to the US - destabilization of China and strengthening of the Islamic world. This is why the US strategy of "exports of problems" will choke with its own consequences.</sum>
<cov>MIKHAIL DELYAGIN, RESEARCH MANAGER AT THE INSTITUTE OF GLOBALIZATION PROBLEMS, ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF MILITARY STRIKES ON IRAN
The "war of cartoons" has changed the world. In addition to the incompatibility of civilizations, it demonstrates the West's and the Islamic world's interest in the conflict. (…)
Oil is the cause of the war. The lack of available oil reserves and the transition of money into oil futures pushes prices up.
The fundamental factors are strengthened by political aspects: self-actualization of the Islamic world (encouraged by oil dollars), destabilization of poor countries and the position of the US. (…)
The position of the US is caused by the Republicans' relations with oil tycoons and the fact that expensive oil damages its rivals (expensive oil is the only factors, which hinders China's development).
The US currently needs a "small and victorious war" on the eve of the election to the Congress and the start of the presidential campaign. The most realistic scenario is to destroy Iran's nuclear centers (except for the nuclear power plant in Busher). The US will again show who is the master in the world. No hostile nations will remain. Saudi Arabia will gain advantages in the competition between Islamic nations. Washington will eliminate the threat of creation of the first "anti-US bomb". The scandal over the sale of Ukraine's X-55 cruise missiles to Iran will create a new tool of influence on the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
Military risks are insubstantial. Iran's strike on Israel can cause a humanitarian disaster but the actual damage will be limited. Chemical and radiological weapons, which Iran could use, will be awful for victims but not critical for the US. It's hardly like that Israel will use nuclear weapons against Iran. Iran will only be able to blockade the Ormuz straight and suspend oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq only for a few days. The 6th fleet was created for solving this problem.
Higher oil prices ($80-$100 a barrel) will not ruin the world economy but will strengthen the US' positions.
The strike on Iran would be an advantage for the Iranian president. The people will unite and the liberal opposition will disappear.
Russia's global significance will increase. (…) Oil dollars will let it cover all problems with money. The North-European gas pipeline will release Russian dependence on the countries, which hate Russia.
The Pacific oil pipeline will give Russia access to China.
The Shtokman and Sakhalin oil fields will let Russia become fourth on the US market. Gazprom will be able to join Sakhalin-2 and explore the Kovyktino oil field (for instance, it could replace BP in TNK). Bureaucrats will develop the idea of "sovereign democracy": "We will do what we please and call it democracy." The west's position will boil down to "oil for silence".
It's possible that new oligarchs will be able to legalize property seized in Russia in exchange for access to Russian raw materials granted to global business. Self-identification as an energy power will blockade modernization. The new stagnation will make the crisis more disastrous. The misbalance between the dynamics of production and exports will be solved by means of limiting consumption in Russia. In the meantime, the strike on Iran and high oil prices will create strategic threats to the US - destabilization of China and strengthening of the Islamic world. This is why the US strategy of "exports of problems" will choke with its own consequences. However, this strategy will be efficient in the short-term period.
<tit>
RUSSIAN PEACEKEEPERS GO TO SUDAN<stl>Four military-transport helicopters of the Russian Air Force will operate in Sudan
<aut>WPS observer
<src>
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to send a military unit consisting of up to 200 servicemen to Sudan where they will participate in a peacekeeping operation. According to the decree published on February 10, on the president's website, the group will be sent to Sudan with weapons, ammunition and military hardware until March 24, 2006.
The military group will be in charge of helicopter support to the rapid response force, transportation of airmobile reserves, evacuation, air surveillance, search-and-rescue operations and transportation of the property and personnel of the UN to the bases. According to the decree, the military unit's term in office will be prolonged if the UN Security Council extends the peacekeeping group's warrant. The decree was signed on the basis of the Federation Council's decision dated December 27, 2005, and resolutions of the UN Security Council No. 1590 dated March 24, 2005, and No. 1627 dated September 23, 2005.
The civil war, which began 22 years ago, has killed over 1 million people. Government troops counter armed units of rebels living in southern Sudan. The government of Sudan and the people's liberation movement signed a global peace agreement on January 9, 2005. This was the formal end of the war. The results of the agreement are as follows - southern regions will become autonomous for six years, and its further destiny will be determined in a referendum.
The peace agreement concerns the distribution of oil revenues. However, the agreement does not concern the conflict in Darfur (western Sudan). The UN characterizes this conflict as the most serious humanitarian disaster in the world. Russian helicopter pilots will operate in this zone. The point is that Russia is one of the few countries where pilots can fly at night.
Peacekeepers' tasks will boil down to organizing search-and-rescue operations and supporting rapid response forces from the air. The UN Security Council sanctioned the deployment of 10,130 servicemen and 755 policemen in Sudan. Experts say that the UN operation in Sudan will probably end in late March 2007. However, the mission may be prolonged. If this happens, Russian servicemen will be replaced twice a year.
Colonel Alexander Drobyshevsky, chief of the press service of the Air Force, said that the Air Force is not selecting experienced pilots and engineers. Selected servicemen are examined by medical commissions. They will soon attend a special training course at the 344th center in Torzhok (the Tver region). There are plans to send the pilots and military hardware to Sudan from the Migalovo airfield (Tver). Drobyshevsky said that "the Il-76, An-124 Ruslan and An-22 Antei military-transport planes will have to perform 30, five and five flights respectively." He noted that "the task will be fulfilled on time". The official representative of the Air Force said, "We have repeatedly solved such tasks in the past."
The peacekeeping mission in Sudan is the only operation conducted by the Russian Army. Colonel Vyacheslav Sedov, chief of the press service of the Defense Ministry, said that Russia participates in UN peacekeeping operations very actively, sending peacekeepers and military observers to different regions. He noted that around 100 Russian military observers participate in UN peacekeeping operations in 12 regions, including Western Sahara, Congo, Liberia, Burundi and the Middle East. Sedov said that over 3,000 Russian servicemen are involved in peacekeeping operations in the CIS.
He noted, "The major contingent - around 1,800 servicemen - is deployed in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. In addition, 700 Russian peacekeepers operate in the Trans-Dniester territory and 580 in South Ossetia." The Defense Ministry's representative said that peacekeeping operations are an efficient tool for stopping armed conflicts. Russia's participation in UN peacekeeping activities coincides with Russia's political interests and strengthens its prestige abroad.
<tit>
STRUGGLE AGAINST COUNTERFEITED PRODUCTS MAY BECOME A NATIONAL PROJECT IN RUSSIAOn February 14, the Duma held hearings dedicated to counteracting trade in counterfeited products in Russia. According to participants of the hearings, counterfeited products became "a nationwide disaster" in Russia. Deputy Chair of the Duma, Vladimir Katrenko, stated that they "threaten not only life and health of the citizens but also economic security of the state in general."
The share of counterfeited products on the Russian alcohol market approaches 20% and the share of counterfeited medications is even bigger. In production of perfumes, footwear and clothes, meat and dairy products, as well as canned fish, tea and coffee, this share on the domestic market fluctuates from 30% to 50%.
Valery Draganov, chair of the parliamentary committee for economic policy, enterprise and tourism, remarked that 90% of sturgeon and 99% of caviar on the domestic Russian market were counterfeited.
Duma deputies mentioned the sum of $3 billion. According to them, this is the sum of which the Russian budget falls short annually due to the criminal activities of producers of counterfeited products. In 2001, Russian law-enforcement agencies registered 2,500 crimes related to production and distribution of counterfeited and low-quality products, in 2002 the number of such crimes amounted to 2,800, in 2004 it exceeded 3,200, in 2005 it grew 60% from 2004.
Counterfeited products are sold mostly in marketplaces. According to Duma deputies, consumers may also buy low-quality products on the Internet. There is no quality control either in a marketplace or on the Internet.
According to parliament members, the leadership in counterfeiting on the Russian market belongs to six well-known global companies brands of which are used actively by pirates. The most frequently imitated products are Levi's jeans, Adidas sports goods and Marlboro cigarettes. Among medications the most frequently met imitations are under Viagra brand. Pirates also often imitate Rolex watches and steering rods of Mercedes cars.
When participants of the hearings turned to issue of the resolution, the main proposed measure was tightening criminal responsibility. Draganov warned the colleagues, "Duma deputies are prepared to tighten responsibility but society should understand to what this will lead." The hint was transparent. Draganov meant that activeness of the law-enforcement agencies might be balanced by growing bribes.
Having supported tightening of responsibility, Deputy General Prosecutor Vladimir Kolesnikov, also proposed its tightening "for managers" who provided premises for production of counterfeited products.
Participants of the hearings proposed giving status of national state program to the struggle against counterfeited products. They also recommended the government to accelerate preparation of the bills protecting objects of intellectual property and the Duma to work out bills for counteraction to trade in counterfeited and low-quality products. They also did not forget about amendments to criminal and administrative laws regarding production and distribution of counterfeited medications, food products, alcohol and perfumes.
On February 14, International Intellectual Property Alliance called on the US Administration to suspend benefits for Russia in the framework of the system of trading preferences. The alliance uniting 1,900 companies from the US producing software, movies, music and television shows explained the request saying that the share of pirate products in various sectors of the Russian market fluctuates from 67% to 85% due to which losses of producers on the Russian market reach $1.78 billion.
It is traditionally believed that combating piracy for which the West calls on Russia will contribute to growth of the IT sector and economy of the country in general. For instance, according to IDC consultancy, if software piracy in Russia is reduced by 10% this will double revenues of the local IT industry on the domestic market, will create 30,000 new jobs and will bring $280 million in additional tax revenues.
Interestingly, among the countries that do not observe the copyright for intellectual property there are not only obvious economic outsiders like Zimbabwe and Paraguay but also India, China and Russia that are the most promising offshore producers of software. The share of pirate software products in these countries amounts to 74%, 88% and 85% respectively (in the US it amounts to 21%). This fact does not prevent growth of investments in IT industries. Boris Firsov, head of the group of telecommunications and new technologies for Russia and CIS in A.T. Kearney consultancy, says that positive influence of piracy on the economy is an illusion because the main buyers of pirate products are private individuals who do not make innovations. This way or the other, according to preliminary estimates, in 2003, the share of expenditures on software amounted to about 0.5% of the GDP in Russia and to 2-7% of the GDP in the US.
There is also another look on piracy. Some Western experts believe that distribution of pirate products is a part of a popular strategy of large companies for conquering the market. Cheap pirate copies oust the licensed products of competitors and afterwards when the rivals are defeated the company starts making the users buy legal versions forcing the government to tighten control over observing copyrights for intellectual property.
<ref>Gazeta, February 15, 2006; Kommersant, February 15, 2006
RVR
