Decline of Russian Population.

[vwrw]

I take geography in this semester.  Here are two quotes that made impression on me.

The Russia’s  birth rate has stabilized at around 12 per 1000. The death rate has skyrocketed, exceeding more than 15 per 1000. This produce annual loss of population of 0.3 % or nearly half a million per year.

This number - nearly half a million loss per year makes me skeptical. Does it seem plausible to you?  If this statistic is correct and it remains this way, Russians will become extinct  during next 75 years!

Average male life expectancy dropped from 71 in 1991 to 60 in2008 (attention Man Looking!!! in Irkutsk, it was mere 53. Can you imagine how many single ladies over 40 are there?) Male also are likely to be affected by suicide . Here Russia rate is 15 times Europe’s. On average, a Russian male is 9 times more likely to die a violent or an accidental death than his European counterpart. Fewer than half of today’s male Russian teen will survive to age 60. 

Another cause of the high death rate is AIDS, whose impact is difficult to gauge because of Russia’s high levels of tuberculosis and the questionable quality of official reporting. Official number of the infected with HIV/AIDS is  416,000. Estimates of the infected with HIV/AIDS (they do not say who provided this estimate) range from 940,000 to several millions.   

This last paragraph seems as a BS to me.  If HIV/AIDS were so pervasive, they estimate that  1 in 14 is infected with HIV/AIDS,  you could hear about people who are infected with it as you hear about people with cancer for example. But you do not. I never hear about anyone having this in Russia. I certainly do not suggest that there are no people with HIV/AIDS, simply the official number seems more real to me.

[wicheese]

Does it seem plausible to you?  If this statistic is correct and it remains this way, Russians will become extinct  during next 75 years!

Do not worry, as I'm sure the Chinese will be more than happy to ensure the country stays populated.   

[alex330]

  If HIV/AIDS were so pervasive, they estimate that  1 in 14 is infected with HIV/AIDS,  you could hear about people who are infected with it as you hear about people with cancer for example. But you do not. I never hear about anyone having this in Russia. I certainly do not suggest that there are no people with HIV/AIDS, simply the official number seems more real to me.

Maybe this is the one of the reasons for the spike in HIV/AIDS. Is it a taboo subject? Intravenous drug and heroin use has skyrocketed in the FSU fueling the spread of the virus. In my fiances city of Odessa the numbers are much worse. It is supposedly an epidemic of huge proportions 

[Chicagoguy]

It seems to me that "controlled" governments do not like to report bad news. Hence the lack of info on AIDS/HIV.
I think the Russian government is honestly worried about loss of population but they don't know what to do. I am surprised they are so willing to let people leave the country. Big brain drain.

[BC]

Average male life expectancy dropped from 71 in 1991 to 60 in2008 (attention Man Looking!!! in Irkutsk, it was mere 53. Can you imagine how many single ladies over 40 are there?) Male also are likely to be affected by suicide . Here Russia rate is 15 times Europe’s. On average, a Russian male is 9 times more likely to die a violent or an accidental death than his European counterpart. Fewer than half of today’s male Russian teen will survive to age 60. 

Looks like things are getting better as the economic situation recovers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Russia

[/size][/font]Another cause of the high death rate is AIDS, whose impact is difficult to gauge because of Russia’s high levels of tuberculosis and the questionable quality of official reporting. Official number of the infected with HIV/AIDS is  416,000. Estimates of the infected with HIV/AIDS (they do not say who provided this estimate) range from 940,000 to several millions.[/b]   

Check sources regarding AIDS.. you might be looking at diagnosed vs estimated.

[vwrw]

 Alex, I do not think HIV/AIDS subject is a taboo subject. In general, Russians tend to have fewer taboo subjects, and as a result, they appear  blunt to Westerners. Or at least, it is how I explain to myself why many members here characterize FSUW as blunt.
   
BC, thank you for the link. The fact that nearly two thirds (62%) of the infected with  HIV/AIDS are attributed to drug users explains why I have not heard about such instances. I do not know anybody who is a drug user or who associates with such people.
 
wicheese, I heard a few times on TV here that it is much more difficult for Asian guys to find relationship with Caucasian women than for Caucasian guys to  reproduce with Asian women. If we assume this observation is true, it implies that Caucasian women do not find Asian guys attractive for some reasons. In Russia, as I noted last time when I was there, a hatred toward Chinese people is noticeable. This attitude would make it even more difficult for Asian guys to  reproduce with Russians, so I am not sure if the Chinese can ensure the country stays populated with at least mixed Russians.

[vwrw]

What do you think about the Russian male suicide rate? This rate is 15 times higher than Europe’s! To me, it seems hair-raising  and real since I did hear about such instances.

[Boethius]

Alex, I do not think HIV/AIDS subject is a taboo subject. In general, Russians tend to have fewer taboo subjects, and as a result, they appear  blunt to Westerners. Or at least, it is how I explain to myself why many members here characterize FSUW as blunt.

That's not why many appear blunt.  They are blunt because they do not couch language behind the normal niceties or "white lies" Westerners use, particularly IRL situations.

[LAman]

I take geography in this semester.  Here are two quotes that made impression on me.

The Russia’s  birth rate has stabilized at around 12 per 1000. The death rate has skyrocketed, exceeding more than 15 per 1000. This produce annual loss of population of 0.3 % or nearly half a million per year.

This number - nearly half a million loss per year makes me skeptical. Does it seem plausible to you?  If this statistic is correct and it remains this way, Russians will become extinct  during next 75 years!

vwrw....this reminds me of an article I read in the moscow times www.moscowtimes.com, dated October 25, 2006....It was an interesting article about the decline of russian language......one reason if gave was the declining russian population, sheding 700,000 people every year. I don't know if much has changed based on your figures but at some point it has to bottom out.

[vwrw]

Beothus, it is very rare in life that a phenomenon has just one cause. Usually several factors contribute to the creation of a  phenomenon and Russian bluntness is not an exception.   My explanation is one possible cause, yours is another. I am sure there are more explanations and none of them invalidate mine or your explanation. Learn to be comprehensive in your thinking, you will seem less close-minded.

[Misha]

This number - nearly half a million loss per year makes me skeptical. Does it seem plausible to you?  If this statistic is correct and it remains this way, Russians will become extinct  during next 75 years!

Yes, very plausible. If you leave the beaten track and go out to rural areas of Russia, you will see villages that were abandoned. What you have in a concentration of the population in larger centres and cities. However, as the population decreases, the yearly population loss will become progressively smaller unless the percentage of population loss increases.

[Misha]

Beothus, it is very rare in life that a phenomenon has just one cause. Usually several factors contribute to the creation of a  phenomenon and Russian bluntness is not an exception.   My explanation is one possible cause, yours is another. I am sure there are more explanations and none of them invalidate mine or your explanation. Learn to be comprehensive in your thinking, you will seem less close-minded.

Well said! 

[Boethius]

Beothus, it is very rare in life that a phenomenon has just one cause. Usually several factors contribute to the creation of a  phenomenon and Russian bluntness is not an exception.   My explanation is one possible cause, yours is another. I am sure there are more explanations and none of them invalidate mine or your explanation. Learn to be comprehensive in your thinking, you will seem less close-minded.

LOL.  I've done just fine to date, thank you.  I actually do have a fairly open mind, when the provider of the information is someone I respect.    There is one poster here who changed one of my views 180 degrees.  That poster, for whom I have a profound respect, knows it.

[vwrw]

Yes, Misha you are right most likely as the population decreases, the population loss will become progressively smaller.
 
The other interesting fact is that Russia is not considered to be Europe although many here in America refer to it as Eastern Europe.  According to my textbook, Eastern Europe ends with Ukraine and Belarus. Russia is Russia – a separate geographic realm. I did not know about it. 
 

[BC]

What do you think about the Russian male suicide rate? This rate is 15 times higher than Europe’s! To me, it seems hair-raising  and real since I did hear about such instances.

some interesting data

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544990/
http://nitawriter.wordpress.com/2007/05/11/suicide-rates-of-the-world/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Denkb%C3%A4r/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

Whereas health and life expectancy can be more directly correlated to economic factors, with suicide there seems to less direct correlation and many more factors involved. Probably boils down to a host of lifestyle factors that lead people to believe they have no hope or feel alone with their problems.  My gross guess is it comes down to how supportive societies are to individuals and their problems.  Extended family distribution may also have something to do with it, whether or not a countries population is more 'in transit' for work reasons which disperses the them over large areas, long ways from their family core.  Quite a mystery.

[acctBill]

Yes, Misha you are right most likely as the population decreases, the population loss will become progressively smaller.
 
The other interesting fact is that Russia is not considered to be Europe although many here in America refer to it as Eastern Europe.  According to my textbook, Eastern Europe ends with Ukraine and Belarus. Russia is Russia – a separate geographic realm. I did not know about it.

vwrw I can't speak for what the Russian educational system says about Europe, Asia and Russia but in the British educational system the dividing line between Europe and Asia is the Urals.  This means that Moscow and St. Pete are considered to be in Europe while the parts of Russia that are east of the Urals are considered to be part of Asia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ural_Mountains

[Turboguy]

Humm, so some of us married Asian girls and didn't even know it.

[vwrw]

 acctBill, it is American educational system that considers Russia to be a separated geographic realm. I do not remember what the Russian educational system says on this account.
 
I guess Americans do not agree with British view on how to divide Russia because they may not want to see that after Russians dye out the territory from Europe to Urals goes to Europe and the territory from Urals to Asia goes to Asia, leaving Americans with nothing. For those who thinks my idea is delirious, here is another quote from my textbook.
 
Melting of Arctic will bring oil and gas resources below the ocean floor within the reach of modern extractive technology. No state has a longer coastline on the Arctic Ocean than Russia, and Russian are busy staking claims and drawing seaward borders in anticipation of the opportunities that may soon open. Already Canada and US, among others, are contesting what Russians are doing in the Arctic arena. 20% of the remaining oil reserves may be locked inside the Arctic circle. The stakes are high indeed. 
   
I guess the stakes are high enough for Americans to reconsider where Europe ends and Asia starts. He-he. 

[Misha]

Technically speaking, Europe would be better classified as a peninsula of the Asian continent and it would best to speak of a Eurasian continent as opposed to dividing the two artificially just so Europe can claim to be a continent 

[BC]

Technically speaking, Europe would be better classified as a peninsula of the Asian continent and it would best to speak of a Eurasian continent as opposed to dividing the two artificially just so Europe can claim to be a continent 

During a fine visit to my programmers in UA one mentioned that UA was the geographic center of Europe.

[I/O]

VWRW: I may have missed something (genuinely) but I have read your quote in the opening post a couple of times and am struggling with your 1:14 AIDS calculation based on the source and your scepticism thereof. 416 000 is roughly (thumb calculation) 1:300 with a population of roughly 140 million. Their guesses at perhaps a million or more with AIDS calculates out to roughly 1:140, both of which, based on cursory observations over time are not completely unimaginable given the ever more overt gay community and ever increasing drug use. Where are you getting your 1:14 ratio from?

[I/O]

Do not worry, as I'm sure the Chinese will be more than happy to ensure the country stays populated.

There's no real problem for the Chinese to worry about, by the time all the pregnant sub 20 Y/O's fess up to the fact that Alpha Billy's done the job on them, the long term solution will be obvious. A new breed of Vietna/Ameri/Ruskis will repopulate the place fairly quickly, it isn't rocket science although Russia could do with a little of that right now it seems.

[vwrw]

Ooops.  You are right.  My brain must have been on a disconnect from all the reading I have done.  Yes, the ratio is 140 to 1 and that seems more believable to me.

[tfcrew]

   Here are  quotes that made impression on me.

My question is the lack of sources. 
Who/what are being quoted?

[alex330]

Here are a few sources. It seems the infection rates are compounded by the large number of sex workers, the extremely high IV drug use in prisons, and unclean blood transfusions. My fiance tells me people often die from tuberculosis or pneumonia at younger ages. I am sure many of these cases are undiagnosed HIV users unfortunately.

http://hivinsite.ucsf.edu/global?page=cr03-rs-00

http://www.avert.org/hiv-aids-europe.htm

And these are only the reported cases. It is the tip of the iceberg...

There is a special about this subject with sex workers and street children in Ukraine. You can find it on youtube. It is alarming and very sad.